The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Eric is Quiet]

23 hours ago, Eric Bear said:

Cocaine Bear Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	31	218	4001	5.45%

 

Comp - T-3

2.422x of Ambulance (1.69M)

1.129x of Unbearable Weight (943K)

0.586x of The Black Phone (1.76M)

0.231x of Nope (1.48M)

0.330x of Bullet Train (1.52M)

2.018x of Beast (1.87M)

0.685x of Smile (1.37M)

1.415x of Violent Night (1.56M)

1.124x of M3GAN (3.09M)

0.852x of Knock at the Cabin (1.23M)

Cocaine Bear Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	40	266	5603	4.75%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 48

 

Comp - T-2

2.486x of Ambulance (1.74M)

1.132x of Unbearable Weight (945K)

0.544x of The Black Phone (1.63M)

0.212x of Nope (1.36M)

0.276x of Bullet Train (1.27M)

1.847x of Beast (1.71M)

0.532x of Smile (1.06M)

1.317x of Violent Night (1.45M)

0.839x of M3GAN (2.31M)

0.842x of Knock at the Cabin (1.22M)

[Eric is Quiet]

23 hours ago, Eric Bear said:

Creed III Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	491	13568	3.34%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 38

 

Comp - T-10

0.551x of F9 (3.91M)

0.654x of No Time to Die (4.12M)

0.846x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (3.81M)

0.748x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (4.49M)

1.256x of Nope (8.04M)

0.607x of Black Adam (4.61M)

0.224x of Avatar 2 (3.81M)

Creed III Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	561	13568	4.13%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 70

 

Comp - T-9

0.599x of F9 (4.25M)

0.680x of No Time to Die (4.28M)

0.886x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (3.99M)

0.772x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (4.63M)

1.336x of Nope (8.55M)

0.655x of Black Adam (4.98M)

0.241x of Avatar 2 (4.1M)

[Eric is Quiet]

23 hours ago, Eric Bear said:

Scream VI Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	50	605	8200	7.38%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 23

 

Comp - T-17

2.430x of Scream (8.5M)

2.300x of Nope (14.72M)

Scream VI Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	50	632	8200	7.71%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 27

 

Comp - T-16

2.385x of Scream (8.35M)

2.315x of Nope (14.82M)

1.881x of Halloween Ends (10.16M)

[Eric is Quiet]

23 hours ago, Eric Bear said:

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-24 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	180	16243	1.11%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 12

 

Comp - T-24

0.152x of Black Widow (2.01M)

0.236x of Eternals (2.25M)

1.034x of Sonic 2 (6.46M)

0.135x of Jurassic World: Dominion (2.44M)

0.201x of Avatar: The Way of Water (3.41M)

0.054x of Ant-Man 3 (945K)

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-23 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	194	16243	1.19%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 14

 

Comp - T-23

0.152x of Black Widow (2.01M)

0.210x of Eternals (1.99M)

0.795x of Sonic 2 (4.97M)

0.143x of Jurassic World: Dominion (2.57M)

0.174x of Avatar: The Way of Water (2.97M)

0.056x of Ant-Man 3 (986K)

[Porthos]

On 2/21/2023 at 12:03 AM, Porthos said:

 

Scream VI Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	68	7399	7889	490	6.21%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	154
Total Seats Sold Today	16

 

T-17  Comp

	%		Sold T-17	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Morbius	133.51		367	367		0/124	17244/17611	2.08%		3477	14.09%		7.61m
Sonic 2	126.61		13	387		0/76	11279/11666	3.32%		3951	12.40%		7.91m
Nope	180.15		15	272		0/84	13423/13695	1.99%		3822	12.82%		11.53m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Scream VI's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:         97/2624  [3.70% sold]
Matinee:       42/687  [6.11% | 8.57% of all tickets sold]
3D:            190/2551  [7.45% | 38.78% of all tickets sold]

 

Scream VI Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	68	7360	7888	529	6.71%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

39

 

T-16 Comp

	%		Sold T-16	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Morbius	109.07		118	485		0/127	18290/18775	2.58%		3477	15.21%		6.22m
Sonic 2	123.89		40	427		0/76	11239/11666	3.66%		3951	13.39%		7.74m
Nope	176.33		28	300		0/86	13395/13695	2.19%		3822	13.84%		11.29m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Scream VI's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:    105/2624  [4.00% sold]
Matinee:    50/687  [7.28% | 9.45% of all tickets sold]
3D:         205/2551  [8.04% | 38.75% of all tickets sold]

Edited February 22, 2023 by Porthos

[richyboycaldo]

Hi. First post here: how do I make sense of these numbers? For example, Cocaine Bear. What does Comp T2 and the mean? What should I look for to try and project Cocaine Bear OW? 

[katnisscinnaplex]

2 hours ago, richyboycaldo said:

Hi. First post here: how do I make sense of these numbers? For example, Cocaine Bear. What does Comp T2 and the mean? What should I look for to try and project Cocaine Bear OW? 

Comp T-2 is comparing how many tickets have been sold two days before release to other similar movies.  a 2x would mean that it has sold twice as many tickets as the comp movie with two days left.  Then the $ amount given represents the same multiple applied to the comp movie's preview number.  

 

Comp - T-2

2.486x of Ambulance (1.74M)

 

In this example, Cocaine Bear has sold 2.486 times as many tickets as Ambulance had.  If the preview is 2.486 times as much as Ambulance, that would be 1.74m.  This assumes that the two movies rate of sales will be similar for the last two days, but that's not guaranteed.  It's better to look at the comps over a period of days and see which direction the comps are trending.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 2/21/2023 at 8:27 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Cocaine Bear	T-2	Jax	6	19	22	100	2,164	4.62%
		Phx	6	19	47	134	2,200	6.09%
		Ral	8	24	10	88	2,023	4.35%
	Total		20	62	79	322	6,387	5.04%
Creed III	T-9	Jax	5	26	8	67	3,960	1.69%
		Phx	6	16	14	74	2,534	2.92%
		Ral	8	21	15	78	2,743	2.84%
	Total		19	63	37	219	9,237	2.37%
Creed III (EA)	T-8	Jax	5	8	7	60	2,172	2.76%
		Phx	1	2	0	13	618	2.10%
		Ral	2	2	0	34	412	8.25%
	Total		8	12	7	107	3,202	3.34%
Creed III (Pre)	T-6	Jax	1	1	0	10	389	2.57%
	Total		1	1	0	10	389	2.57%
Demon Slayer 2	T-10	Jax	5	17	18	286	2,730	10.48%
(OD)		Phx	4	13	27	305	2,412	12.65%
		Ral	7	23	27	310	2,664	11.64%
	Total		16	53	72	901	7,806	11.54%
Jesus Revolution	T-2	Jax	5	10	3	54	1,089	4.96%
		Phx	5	9	11	45	938	4.80%
		Ral	8	16	8	160	1,548	10.34%
	Total		18	35	22	259	3,575	7.24%
Jesus Rev (EA)	T-1	Jax	5	13	20	358	1,156	30.97%
		Phx	5	8	2	191	850	22.47%
		Ral	8	15	22	747	1,622	46.05%
	Total		18	36	44	1,296	3,628	35.72%
Scream VI	T-16	Jax	5	23	0	136	3,350	4.06%
		Phx	5	17	16	247	2,894	8.53%
		Ral	8	33	7	167	4,211	3.97%
	Total		18	73	23	550	10,455	5.26%
Shazam 2	T-23	Jax	5	56	5	56	9,734	0.58%
		Phx	6	29	3	85	6,134	1.39%
		Ral	8	53	3	96	7,666	1.25%
	Total		19	138	11	237	23,534	1.01%

 

Jesus Revolution T-2 comps (excluding EA)

 - Left Behind - .82x (500k)

 - I Wanna Dance - .985x (719k)

 - Chosen 3 Finale - .184x (307k)

 - Chosen 3  EP 1&2 - .12x (449k)

 

Jesus Revolution + EA comps

 - Downton Abbey + EA - 1.534x (2.76m)

 - Left Behind - 4.921x (3m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 5.913x (4.316m)

 - Chosen 3 Finale - 1.105x (1.846m)

 - Chosen 3  EP 1&2 - .719x (2.7m)

 

Cocaine Bear T-2 comps

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.586x (2.3m)

 - Nope - .312x (1.997m)

 - Bullet Train - .613x (2.055m)

 - Violent Night - 2.105x (2.315m)

 - M3GAN - 1.47x (4.04m)

 

Creed III EA T-8 comps

 - NTTD EA - .686x (754k)

 - Bullet Train EA - 2.326x (2.91m)

 - Elvis EA - 1.486x (446k)

 

Creed III T-9 comps

 - Elvis - .768x (2.46m)

 - No Time to Die - .416x (2.16m)

 - Dune - .32x (1.63m)

 - F9 - .253x (1.8m)

 

Demon Slayer 2 T-10 comps

 - MHA - missed

 - JJK 0 - missed

 - Dragon Ball Z - 1.231x (5.3m)

 - Slime - missed

 

Scream VI T-16 comps

 - Nope - 1.884x (12.05m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 7.14x (10.36m)

 - Black Adam - .968x (7.36m)

 - Suicide Squad - 2.361x (9.68m)

 

Shazam 2 T-23 comps

 - Black Widow - .218x (2.88m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - .082x (1.43m)

 - Eternals - .31x (2.95m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Cocaine Bear	T-1	Jax	6	24	30	130	2,474	5.25%
		Phx	7	24	50	184	2,709	6.79%
		Ral	8	31	16	104	2,617	3.97%
	Total		21	79	96	418	7,800	5.36%
Creed III	T-8	Jax	5	26	26	93	3,960	2.35%
		Phx	6	16	10	84	2,534	3.31%
		Ral	8	21	10	88	2,743	3.21%
	Total		19	63	46	265	9,237	2.87%
Creed III (EA)	T-7	Jax	5	8	4	64	2,172	2.95%
		Phx	1	2	2	15	618	2.43%
		Ral	2	2	3	37	412	8.98%
	Total		8	12	9	116	3,202	3.62%
Creed III (Pre)	T-5	Jax	1	1	0	10	389	2.57%
	Total		1	1	0	10	389	2.57%
Demon Slayer 2	T-9	Jax	5	17	9	295	2,730	10.81%
(OD)		Phx	4	13	28	333	2,412	13.81%
		Ral	7	23	20	330	2,664	12.39%
	Total		16	53	57	958	7,806	12.27%
Jesus Revolution	T-1	Jax	5	12	29	83	1,246	6.66%
		Phx	6	14	10	55	1,415	3.89%
		Ral	8	18	27	187	1,638	11.42%
	Total		19	44	66	325	4,299	7.56%
Jesus Rev (EA)	T-0	Jax	5	13	26	384	1,156	33.22%
		Phx	6	10	19	210	937	22.41%
		Ral	8	15	40	787	1,622	48.52%
	Total		19	38	85	1,381	3,715	37.17%
Scream VI	T-15	Jax	5	23	4	140	3,350	4.18%
		Phx	5	17	8	255	2,894	8.81%
		Ral	8	33	3	170	4,211	4.04%
	Total		18	73	15	565	10,455	5.40%
Shazam 2	T-22	Jax	5	56	11	67	9,734	0.69%
		Phx	6	29	5	90	6,134	1.47%
		Ral	8	53	7	103	7,666	1.34%
	Total		19	138	23	260	23,534	1.10%

 

Jesus Revolution T-1 comps (excluding EA)

 - Left Behind - .785x (479k)

 - I Wanna Dance - .1.045x (763k)

 - Chosen 3 Finale - .223x (372k)

 - Chosen 3  EP 1&2 - .141x (529k)

 

Jesus Revolution + EA comps

 - Downton Abbey + EA - 1.462x (2.63m)

 - Left Behind - 4.12x (2.516m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 5.486x (4m)

 - Chosen 3 Finale - 1.17x (1.954m)

 - Chosen 3  EP 1&2 - .74x (2.78m)

 

Cocaine Bear T-1 comps

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.672x (2.42m)

 - Nope - .312x (1.958m)

 - Bullet Train - .564x (1.89m)

 - Violent Night - 2.2x (2.42m)

 - M3GAN - 1.25x (3.44m)

 

Creed III EA T-7 comps

 - NTTD EA - .671x (738k)

 - Bullet Train EA - 1.813x (2.27m)

 - Elvis EA - 1.526x (458k)

 

Creed III T-8 comps

 - Elvis - .833x (2.67m)

 - No Time to Die - .45x (2.34m)

 - Dune - .357x (1.82m)

 - F9 - .294x (2.09m)

 

Demon Slayer 2 T-9 comps

 - MHA - missed

 - JJK 0 - missed

 - Dragon Ball Z - 1.266x (5.45m)

 - Slime - missed

 

Scream VI T-15 comps

 - Nope - 1.865x (11.93m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 7.06x (10.24m)

 - Black Adam - .884x (6.72m)

 - Suicide Squad - 2.384x (9.77m)

 

Shazam 2 T-22 comps

 - Sonic 2 - 1.656x (8.25m)

 - Black Widow - .2x (2.65m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - .087x (1.52m)

 - Eternals - .29x (2.79m)

[Hiccup23]

Those Scream numbers are looking amazing. It should double the previews of Scream (2022) $3.5M. 

[richyboycaldo]

5 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Comp T-2 is comparing how many tickets have been sold two days before release to other similar movies.  a 2x would mean that it has sold twice as many tickets as the comp movie with two days left.  Then the $ amount given represents the same multiple applied to the comp movie's preview number.  

 

Comp - T-2

2.486x of Ambulance (1.74M)

 

In this example, Cocaine Bear has sold 2.486 times as many tickets as Ambulance had.  If the preview is 2.486 times as much as Ambulance, that would be 1.74m.  This assumes that the two movies rate of sales will be similar for the last two days, but that's not guaranteed.  It's better to look at the comps over a period of days and see which direction the comps are trending.

Thank you very very much. I really appreciate. The numbers make sense now.

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Emily T-2: 17.8% Awareness, 4.84 Interest

A Good Person T-37: 20.12%, 5.27

Book Club 2: The Next Chapter T-79: 13.91%, 4.56

Fast X T-86: 47.99%, 6.27

The Little Mermaid T-93: 54.33%, 6.07

Oppenheimer T-149: 17.83%, 5.2

Haunted Mansion T-156: 35.22%, 5.63

 

Cocaine Bear T-2: 49.28% Awareness, 6.15 Interest

Final Awareness: 86% chance of 10M, 54% chance of 30M

Final Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 89% chance of 30M

Original - Low Awareness: 100% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 100% chance of 10M

 

Jesus Revolution T-2: 22.29% Awareness, 4.98 Interest

Final Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 20% chance of 10M
Original - Low Awareness: 43% chance of 5M, 14% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 18% chance of 5M, 0% chance of 10M

 

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves T-37: 35.55% Awareness, 5.22 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 82% chance of 10M, 53% chance of 20M, 41% chance of 30M

T-30 Interest: 54% chance of 10M, 30% chance of 20M, 16% chance of 30M

Known IP Awareness: 67% chance of 10M, 33% chance of 30M

Known IP Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 50% chance of 40M

[Tinalera]

Scream 6

Thurs Mar 9 and Fri Mar 10 (T=16)

Toronto and Montreal Canada

Toronto	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	4	10	139	2879	3018	0.0460
Fri	4	20	97	5845	5942	0.0163
Montreal
Thurs	2	5	56	922	978	0.0572
Fri	2	7	18	1838	1856	0.0096

[Porthos]

On 2/21/2023 at 9:35 AM, datpepper said:

65 and John Wick 4 tix seem like they’ll be on sale March 1.

 

Wick 4 showtimes starting to populate; 3pm showtimes (lol).

 

Wick 3, IIRC, was either 6pm or 7pm so any OW multi analysis will need to take that into account (plus just general increased frontloading)

[Ronin46]

BoPro

 

Film	Studio	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, February 26	Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed)	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania	Disney & Marvel Studios	$38,600,000	$176,200,000	~4,345	-64%
Cocaine Bear	Universal Pictures	$13,700,000	$13,700,000	~3,500	NEW
Jesus Revolution	Lionsgate	$10,000,000	$10,000,000	~2,250	NEW
Avatar: The Way of Water	Disney & 20th Century Studios	$5,500,000	$666,200,000	~2,500	-16%
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish	Universal Pictures & DreamWorks Animation	$4,100,000	$173,300,000	~3,000	-23%
Magic Mike’s Last Dance	Warner Bros. Pictures	$2,500,000	$22,800,000	~2,800	-54%
Knock at the Cabin	Universal Pictures	$2,400,000	$34,600,000	~2,200	-40%
80 for Brady	Paramount Pictures	$2,300,000	$36,700,000	~2,500	-39%
Missing	Sony & Screen Gems	$1,200,000	$31,700,000	~1,100	-31%
A Man Called Otto	Sony & Columbia Pictures	$1,000,000	$62,400,000	~1,200	-38%

 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 2/21/2023 at 5:21 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

AMC FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWINGS - GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

SHAZAM!

 

T-23

 

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
13	64	2325	2.7%

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY	NEW SHOWINGS ADDED
0	0

 

Thought I would see how thing are going in Central Florida, since CBM's tend to perform strong here

 

AMC FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWINGS - GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

SHAZAM!

 

T-22

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
14	72	2489	2.9%

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY	NEW SHOWINGS ADDED
8	1

 

A nice jump in seats sold overnight and this morning/afternoon. Looks like a new showing was added yesterday evening which helped. I'm expecting it to plateau again during tomorrows check 

[upriser7]

21 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

BoPro

 

Film	Studio	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, February 26	Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed)	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania	Disney & Marvel Studios	$38,600,000	$176,200,000	~4,345	-64%
Cocaine Bear	Universal Pictures	$13,700,000	$13,700,000	~3,500	NEW
Jesus Revolution	Lionsgate	$10,000,000	$10,000,000	~2,250	NEW
Avatar: The Way of Water	Disney & 20th Century Studios	$5,500,000	$666,200,000	~2,500	-16%
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish	Universal Pictures & DreamWorks Animation	$4,100,000	$173,300,000	~3,000	-23%
Magic Mike’s Last Dance	Warner Bros. Pictures	$2,500,000	$22,800,000	~2,800	-54%
Knock at the Cabin	Universal Pictures	$2,400,000	$34,600,000	~2,200	-40%
80 for Brady	Paramount Pictures	$2,300,000	$36,700,000	~2,500	-39%
Missing	Sony & Screen Gems	$1,200,000	$31,700,000	~1,100	-31%
A Man Called Otto	Sony & Columbia Pictures	$1,000,000	$62,400,000	~1,200	-38%

 

would be a very solid number for A2 if it only drops 16% from an inflated weekend

[misterpepp]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Wick 4 showtimes starting to populate; 3pm showtimes (lol).

 

Wick 3, IIRC, was either 6pm or 7pm so any OW multi analysis will need to take that into account (plus just general increased frontloading)

To be fair to Wick 4, if the runtime is as long as reports suggest, 3pm previews will, for once, make slight sense.

 

That might also be the earliest Thurs preview night Lionsgate has done? They’re not even starting that early for Jesus Revolution. (Although, regarding preview nights any day of the week, I think the Xmas Eve preview shows of American Underdog started quite early, if my memory serves me right)

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Over/under on Ant-Man beating BVS' record drop?

[Tinalera]

So Im wondering seeing performance of last few MCU movies-I do wonder if we are seeing a situation where there are MCU fans steadily going to see the films, but the more "casual" fans are not coming out as much. Im just seeing similar numbers for the past few. Dr Strange 2 955 World Wide, Black panther 2 800 Million, Thor 4 600 million. I see Antman probably bouncing around 6-700 million when done. I just wonder going forward with Box office if there's a set kind of minimum number now that an MCU film will do-like can we assume it will do at least 600-700 as far as returning MCU fans, with casual film goers making difference of how well a film does? 

[filmlover]

Cocaine Bear is selling pretty well near me to the point where I think an opening similar to Violent Night should be easy to achieve. Universal's commitment to movies that sound like memes is looking to pay off once again!