The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, JayPrimetown said:

Living in South Florida, would love to track some theaters down here. For those that do tracking, any tips on the best way to do this? 

Is it picking out a set of theaters, adding up the showings, total seats available, and total seats booked? Is there a preference to tracking preview day or the actual opening day? Any tips would be appreciated!

 

Well, the Number One piece of advice I can give is: Don't go overboard at first, as one can get burnt out in a hurry.  As well as getting used to one level of tracking only to get overwhelmed when a larger movie comes along and double or triples your work.

 

But aside from that, you've more or less got the gist already.  Pick out one theater (or if you're feeling froggy a multiple set of theaters) and then add up the seats sold.  Giving more information like seats available and number of showings and all the rest is always welcome as it can give gauges about relative strength and all sorts of other nice info, but it's seats sold which is the real deal.

 

As for preview/opening day, I would always suggest getting your feet wet first for tracking preview nights simply because the amount of showings is gonna be far fewer than on opening day/night.  Plus we just have more comps for preview nights so it's easier for all of us to be able to make adjustments as we see how our region of the country is doing against other regions/national chains.

 

But, no, really.  The biggest piece of advice I can possibly give is... Don't.  Go.  Overboard.  Don't keep adding and adding theaters and say "yeah, okay, I'm near where I think I'm good" as then a movie can come along and blow your priors out of the water or they just keep shifting previews back earlier in the day, resulting in more shows.

 

Everything else is just trying to find out what's the easiest/most convenient way for you to actually count seats quickly and or in a not-mind numbing fashion. 

 

The only other real piece of advice I might give is about figuring out what is a good representative sample of theaters in your region. You have to decide if you want to track all theaters in an area, just the most popular, or some sort of mixture that gets a good look at your city.  But that's something that only you can really decide (and is sorta kinda connected to the "don't go overboard" piece of advice I already gave).

Edited April 8, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Well, the Number One piece of advice I can give is: Don't go overboard at first, as one can get burnt out in a hurry.  As well as getting used to one level of tracking only to get overwhelmed when a larger movie comes along and double or triples your work.

 

But aside from that, you've more or less got the gist already.  Pick out one theater (or if you're feeling froggy a multiple set of theaters) and then add up the seats sold.  Giving more information like seats available and number of showings and all the rest is always welcome as it can give gauges about relative strength and all sorts of other nice info, but it's seats sold which is the real deal.

 

As for preview/opening day, I would always suggest getting your feet wet first for tracking preview nights simply because the amount of showings is gonna be far fewer than on opening day/night.  Plus we just have more comps for preview nights so it's easier for all of us to be able to make adjustments as we see how our region of the country is doing against other regions/national chains.

 

But, no, really.  The biggest piece of advice I can possibly give is... Don't.  Go.  Overboard.  Don't keep adding and adding theaters and say "yeah, okay, I'm near where I think I'm good" as then a movie can come along and blow your priors out of the water or they just keep shifting previews back earlier in the day, resulting in more shows.

 

Everything else is just trying to find out what's the easiest/most convenient way for you to actually count seats quickly and or in a not-mind numbing fashion. 

 

The only other real piece of advice I might give is about figuring out what is a good representative sample of theaters in your region. You have to decide if you want to track all theaters in an area, just the most popular, or some sort of mixture that gets a good look at your city.  But that's something that only you can really decide (and is sorta kinda connected to the "don't go overboard" piece of advice I already gave).

 

Well, I lie.  The other tricky bit is figuring out how to display it here in a nice looking chart.  

 

I'm not ashamed to admit I've spent far too much time tweaking things to make them look "just right" (plus making it quick to do).

 

I've settled on using Apple Numbers for my spreadsheets and Firefox for actually posting my charts as that's one of the few combos that actually reproduces my charts 1:1 (or so close to 1:1 to not make a difference).   Otherwise when I try to post my charts via Google Chrome I get icky looking things that just... irk me. 

 

Other folks use Google Docs/Sheets programs as this board translates those fairly well as well.  And other just say eff it and post it as is. 

 

Not really helpful on the tracking end, but on the presentation end?  Been a lifesaver for me.

[JayPrimetown]

Appreciate the advice. I think I'll start with a couple local theaters including the one I go to and track from day goes on sale to the night before.

 

Which day of the week do ticket sales typically start?

 

 

Edited April 8, 2023 by JayPrimetown

[GOGODanca]

30 minutes ago, JayPrimetown said:

Appreciate the advice. I think I'll start with a couple local theaters including the one I go to and track from day goes on sale to the night before.

 

Which day of the week do ticket sales typically start?

 

 

its different for each movie, for example Fast X opened its sales like 100+ days out while mcu movies typically go about 1 month out and some movies much closer to release

[Porthos]

30 minutes ago, JayPrimetown said:

Appreciate the advice. I think I'll start with a couple local theaters including the one I go to and track from day goes on sale to the night before.

 

Which day of the week do ticket sales typically start?

 

 

 

No real set day of the week, sadly, as it's up to the whims of the marketers.  Monday is a popular day (beginning of news cycle for the week/after all the weekend entertainment discussion is waning), Tuesdays and Thursdays another.  Other days are more rare.

 

Folks like @datpepper and others often have the goods about when ticket sales will start up and are kind enough to let us know ahead of time so we can be prepared. 

[Tinalera]

2 hours ago, JayPrimetown said:

Living in South Florida, would love to track some theaters down here. For those that do tracking, any tips on the best way to do this? 

Is it picking out a set of theaters, adding up the showings, total seats available, and total seats booked? Is there a preference to tracking preview day or the actual opening day? Any tips would be appreciated!

I myself am in Canada, and I just use the Cineplex sites and yes I manually count seats lol-its takes a bit. Pretty much you have it. The forum here is amazing for the support, and I agree with Porthos-don't go overboard. Even if its just a couple of theatres in your area-all data is good data. Do as much or as little as you feel comfortable with-it should be enjoyable to you and not feel like a job or chore. Its good to just get data and over time  you'll get enough movies to compare. 

 

I found that its particularly interesting to see which movies genres do well in your area and which ones don't. And just enjoy and have fun. Ive learned a lot about the industry just posting and reading on these boards-and everyone is so good and encouraging.

[keysersoze123]

On 4/7/2023 at 11:12 AM, keysersoze123 said:

MTC2 Thursday - 42575/585769 613420.04 3725 shows

MTC2 Thursday - 44720/587157 643421.77 3735 shows

 

Roughly day and half of presales. 

[TheFlatLannister]

4 hours ago, JayPrimetown said:

Living in South Florida, would love to track some theaters down here. For those that do tracking, any tips on the best way to do this? 

Is it picking out a set of theaters, adding up the showings, total seats available, and total seats booked? Is there a preference to tracking preview day or the actual opening day? Any tips would be appreciated!

Best advice I could offer you: Use ATOM TICKETS 

[TheFlatLannister]

Anyways happy to see you return @M37

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Mario MTC1 Sat - 402506/1695402 5677818.34 10284 shows

 

Really good presales. Walkups will be hopefully even better than today where the Friday finished at 790521 from above PS. That would be huge. I dont think I have ever seen any movie have 500K walkups so far. Can this movie do it? Could take this to 60m saturday !!!. But I am hopeful that even if evening slow down more than usual I expect saturday to be higher than friday. 

Mario MTC1 Sun - 218066/1645339 3047516.12 9922 shows

 

1st sat finished at 853769, which means over 451K tickets sold from yesterday night. I dont think I have tracked any movie that sold that much on the final day. Most mega blockbusters are more presales driven than this.  Walkups tomorrow is tricky. Its Easter and so it should be weaker. I am hoping for 300K walkups but ASP should be down and I expect MTC1 ratios to be higher on Sunday and then weekdays as well. Still seeing sub 40% drop. 

[Porthos]

On 4/8/2023 at 2:08 AM, Porthos said:

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-27 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	206	27114	29671	2557	8.62%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	103
Total Seats Sold Today	94

 

T-27 Comps:

	%		Sold T-27	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	32.69		419	7822		0/329	33094/40916	19.12%		21117	12.11%		11.77m
BP2	47.39		116	5396		1/294	31623/37019	14.58%		16800	15.22%		13.27m
AM3	74.74		136	3421		0/235	29108/32529	10.52%		10475	24.41%		13.08m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       447/11075  [4.04% sold]
Matinee:      78/3555  [2.19% | 3.05% of all tickets sold]
3D:            240/5522  [4.35% | 9.39% of all tickets sold]

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-26 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	206	27026	29671	2645	8.91%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

88

 

T-26 Comps:

	%		Sold T-26	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	32.63		285	8107		0/329	32809/40916	19.81%		21117	12.53%		11.75m
BP2	48.11		102	5498		1/294	31521/37019	14.85%		16800	15.74%		13.47m
AM3	74.97		107	3528		0/235	29016/32544	10.84%		10475	25.25%		13.12m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     466/11075  [4.21% sold]
Matinee:     78/3555  [2.19% | 2.95% of all tickets sold]
3D:            262/5522  [4.74% | 9.91% of all tickets sold]

 

[Porthos]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-26 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	206	27026	29671	2645	8.91%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

88

 

T-26 Comps:

	%		Sold T-26	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	32.63		285	8107		0/329	32809/40916	19.81%		21117	12.53%		11.75m
BP2	48.11		102	5498		1/294	31521/37019	14.85%		16800	15.74%		13.47m
AM3	74.97		107	3528		0/235	29016/32544	10.84%		10475	25.25%		13.12m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     466/11075  [4.21% sold]
Matinee:     78/3555  [2.19% | 2.95% of all tickets sold]
3D:            262/5522  [4.74% | 9.91% of all tickets sold]

 

 

Against my better judgement I sat down and continued to sketch out what would be a plausible adjustment for BW against 2022/23 MCU flicks that accounts for both the absence of Ontartio and the rise in ATP between late 2021 to 2022/23.  I arrived at 117.6% for the record.  Locally at least.

 

Thor 4 and MoM were both under-predicted by about 19% against BW (24.35m and 30.31m respectively) while BP2 and AM3 were both under-predicted by about 16% against BW (24.11m and 15.04m). All four averaged together came out to 117.59%.

 

This tracks reasonably well with the 15% hike in ATP reported by NATO when the lack of Ontario for BW is also factored.

 

(for the record, I got about a 12% difference against Shang-Chi, which doesn't track quite as well against the NATO reportage but hits what I had been adjusting for Ontario nearly exactly [1.12153/.955 ≈ 1.1745 vs the 1.1759 cited above])

 

So what does a BW x 1.176 comp bring?

 

T-26:                   29.25m  (at equivalent theaters)

Day 6 of sales:    21.68m  (at equivalent theaters)

 

Guess there's nothing to worry about after all!

 

...

 

Okay, there's lots of reasons to think this won't follow Black Widow's sale pattern. For one, not being in the middle of a pandemic [at least when it comes to consumer habits] comes to mind.  MCU getting even more frontloaded starting with No Way Home, another.  Plus that teeny tiny little talking point about MCU having a few bumps in the road lately.

 

Still.  Still, that 21.5m comp is interesting.  I wouldn't bet on it personally.  But then again, I have trouble believing sub 14m as well, so...  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Well, it's not like I have any better MCU comps as all the other ones haven't started yet and will probably show similar things.

 

So, I suppose what we do now is look for signs that this is following more of a BW/SC/ET sales pattern (LTBC left off intentionally) rather than a MoM/BP2/AM3 sales pattern.

[keysersoze123]

@Porthos I would not do BW comp as that was available on Premium streaming from day 1. That definitely took away from its BO. Otherwise it was easily a 110-120m OW movie. Plus back then there was almost no MTC3 and seating limitations everywhere which meant movies rant out of PLF seats easily. Too many asterixs to compare with 2021 movies. I think rather look at JWD if you think a MCU sequel can have a backloaded presales. Only time will tell. 

 

From my perspective 20m previews require 360K at MTC1 and around 270K at MTC2. it needs a exponential curve like Venom 2 or kids flicks like Minions 2 or Mario. We will know probably in the final week or so when the curve goes vertical. I hope @M37 will be back to do the curve to see if its happening :-)

[TheFlatLannister]

RENFIELD previews

ORLANDO REGION

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
36	293	4526	6.5%

^{*Numbers taken as of 1:00pm EST}

 

 

Numbers include Wednesday sneaks

 

Comps (R rated films):

Air T-0 (0.478x) ~$1.5M previews

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3

MTC1 Wed - 3100/17472 143700.00 58 shows

MTC1 Thursday - 82462/1145988 1487640.74 6996 shows +1975

MTC1 Friday - 40880/1266391 758855.80 6857 shows (sold 1371 tickets over past day)

Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3

MTC1 Wed - 3202/17472 148425.00 58 shows

MTC1 Thursday - 84396/1147486 1520250.58 7013 shows +1934

MTC1 Friday - 42287/1269091 784270.39 6872 shows +1407

 

I hope this is the steady state pace and does not slow down any more.

[Eric Prime]

On 4/7/2023 at 8:12 PM, Eric is Gay for Bowser said:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-27 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	221	2504	39919	6.27%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 73

 

Comp - T-27

0.343x of Doctor Strange 2 (12.35M)

0.479x of Black Panther 2 (13.42M)

0.829x of Ant-Man 3 (14.51M)

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-26 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	221	2596	39919	6.50%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 92

 

Comp - T-26

2.741x of Black Widow (36.18M)

0.343x of Doctor Strange 2 (12.35M)

0.489x of Black Panther 2 (13.7M)
0.831x of Ant-Man 3 (14.54M)

[Eric Prime]

On 4/7/2023 at 8:18 PM, Eric is Gay for Bowser said:

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-41 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	83	391	17734	2.20%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 10

 

Comp - T-41

0.503x of Jurassic World: Dominion (9.05M)

4.297x of Nope (27.5M)

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-40 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	83	396	17734	2.23%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 5

 

Comp - T-40

0.483x of Jurassic World: Dominion (8.69M)

4.168x of Nope (26.68M)

[Eric Prime]

7 hours ago, Eric is Gay for Bowser said:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-26 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	221	2596	39919	6.50%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 92

 

Comp - T-26

2.741x of Black Widow (36.18M)

0.343x of Doctor Strange 2 (12.35M)

0.489x of Black Panther 2 (13.7M)
0.831x of Ant-Man 3 (14.54M)

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-25 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	221	2638	39919	6.61%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 42

 

Comp - T-25

2.496x of Black Widow (32.94M)

0.339x of Doctor Strange 2 (12.22M)

0.482x of Black Panther 2 (13.51M)

0.810x of Ant-Man 3 (14.18M)

[Eric Prime]

7 hours ago, Eric is Gay for Bowser said:

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-40 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	83	396	17734	2.23%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 5

 

Comp - T-40

0.483x of Jurassic World: Dominion (8.69M)

4.168x of Nope (26.68M)

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-39 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	83	396	17734	2.23%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 0

 

Comp - T-39

0.455x of Jurassic World: Dominion (8.18M)

4.082x of Nope (26.13M)

[filmlover]

Showtimes are starting to appear for Book Club 2, starts at 5:00 that Thursday.