The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, TheFlatLannister said:

It's pretty bad. What are you thinking previews and OW will be? 

These movies are hard to predict just on presales. It will be driven by walkups. Let us see how it does tomorrow. 

 

That said double digits would be a big surprise at this point. 

[Eric Quinn]

16 hours ago, Eric Foreman said:

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-23 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	95	522	20135	2.59%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 5

 

Comp - T-23

1.864x of F9 (13.24M)

0.385x of Jurassic World: Dominion (6.92M)

2.384x of Nope (15.25M)

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-22 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	95	525	20135	2.61%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 3

 

Comp - T-22

1.220x of F9 (8.67M)

0.381x of Jurassic World: Dominion (6.85M)

2.303x of Nope (14.74M)

[Eric Quinn]

The Little Mermaid Greater Phialdelphia Area Seat Report T-29 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	153	351	28586	1.23%

 

Comp - First Day

2.017x of Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (12.61M)

0.391x of Avatar: The Way of Water (6.65M)

0.967x of Mario (30.65M)

 

This is very all over the place, though keep in mind that Mario weirdly did poor on the first day only to explode on the second day, so that comp will go way down tomorrow. But double Sonic despite a couple extra days head start sounds decent to me IMO. Excited to see what's in store for us in the days ahead.

[TheFlatLannister]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

These movies are hard to predict just on presales. It will be driven by walkups. Let us see how it does tomorrow. 

 

That said double digits would be a big surprise at this point. 

I agree. I'm thinking maybe 8m 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Anecdote from local AMC: highest selling new release for the weekend is….Return Of The Jedi’s re release.

[misterpepp]

24 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Anecdote from local AMC: highest selling new release for the weekend is….Return Of The Jedi’s re release.

 

There's lots of packed seating charts for it. Seems like a missed opportunity not to put this out wider than a few hundred theaters. It should at least have a very good PTA.

[charlie Jatinder]

8 hours ago, jedijake said:

Shouldn't either Aladdin or BatB be logical comparisons for Little Mermaid? Or maybe even Jungle Book?

The first one is sure but back then the way thread worked was a lot different than today, so not many comps.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

20 minutes ago, datpepper said:

 

There's lots of packed seating charts for it. Seems like a missed opportunity not to put this out wider than a few hundred theaters. It should at least have a very good PTA.

 

Yeah I was shocked at how packed the showings on Friday at my place are. Then I go to the new movies and none of them have hit more than twenty seats sold for the overall day last I checked.

Edited April 27, 2023 by AMC Theaters Enjoyer

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, Eric Foreman said:

Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	46	215	5695	3.78%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 0

 

Comp - T-1

0.821x of Death on the Nile (903K)

2.048x of Marry Me (1.07M)

0.955x of Dog (1.2M)

0.278x of The Lost City (903K)

0.292x of Elvis (1.02M)

0.653x of Where the Crawdads Sing (1.5M)

0.150x of Don't Worry Darling (464K)

2.108x of Ticket to Paradise (2.32M)

 

Sigh...this is just depressing.

Its overindexing in Philly unless you are including EA last week.

[JayPrimetown]

T -1 Ticket Sales - Big George Foreman (April 27, 2023)
Theater Name	Showtime	Tickets Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ	400 PM	7	280	2.50%
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ	700 PM	4	280	1.43%
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ	1000 PM	3	280	1.07%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL	415 PM	2	184	1.09%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL	810 PM	2	184	1.09%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA	400 PM	2	76	2.63%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA	720 PM	4	76	5.26%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA	955 PM	0	58	0.00%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA	400 PM	0	70	0.00%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA	700 PM	0	70	0.00%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA	1015 PM	10	70	14.29%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL	300 PM	0	0	#DIV/0!
River East 21 - Chicago, IL	445 PM	0	0	#DIV/0!
River East 21 - Chicago, IL	720 PM	0	0	#DIV/0!
River East 21 - Chicago, IL	1030 PM	0	0	#DIV/0!
Katy Mills - Katy, TX	400 PM	0	143	0.00%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX	600 PM	0	143	0.00%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX	700 PM	5	143	3.50%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX	855 PM	0	143	0.00%
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ		14	840	1.67%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL		4	368	1.09%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA		6	210	2.86%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA		10	210	4.76%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL		0	0	#DIV/0!
Katy Mills - Katy, TX		5	572	0.87%
Total Sold		39	2200	1.77%

 

 

Still not having luck accessing the Chicago data... unless there are actually three sold out shows of Big George Foreman in the Windy City

 

Big George Foreman 39 tickets sold. Are You There God 36 tickets sold. Neither is doing well considering The Covenant was over 60 in this same theater set last week 1 day before. Pope's Exorcist over 90. 

 

The way I'm looking at it, maybe this film gets to $5 Million, but that's about the ceiling for it for this weekend. 

 

Have to really wonder how a George Foreman Biopic and a Judy Blume novel adaptation get greenlit to run theatrically in 2023. The reality is these type of films are dead on arrival. 

 

I'm also seeing Return of the Jedi easily outperforming the other new releases on Friday.

Edited April 27, 2023 by JayPrimetown

[Grebacio]

3 hours ago, Eric Foreman said:

Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	46	215	5695	3.78%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 0

 

Comp - T-1

0.821x of Death on the Nile (903K)

2.048x of Marry Me (1.07M)

0.955x of Dog (1.2M)

0.278x of The Lost City (903K)

0.292x of Elvis (1.02M)

0.653x of Where the Crawdads Sing (1.5M)

0.150x of Don't Worry Darling (464K)

2.108x of Ticket to Paradise (2.32M)

 

Sigh...this is just depressing.

Are you there God? It's me Lionsgate

[keysersoze123]

Mermaid MTC2 Previews - 8108/429589 116800.16 2852 shows

 

F2 did like 21k+ on its OD and it was backloaded towards its OW. That said to reiterate F2 had a short presale cycle and so it was at accelerated pace. Mario did 18200K tickets but I started the run next day morning and it ran all day !!!. On itself this is not a bad number and it has a long presale window as well. 

[keysersoze123]

@Porthos I have a feeling Sacramento sales for Guardians should shoot up soon. I expect strong final week. 

[screambaby]

4 hours ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Anecdote from local AMC: highest selling new release for the weekend is….Return Of The Jedi’s re release.

Everything is proceeding as I have  forseen!

[Borja9198]

7 hours ago, GOGODanca said:

ChatGPT says 80-120m OW for Guardians 3

Under $100M opening = I M P O S S I B L E

[Porthos]

On 4/26/2023 at 1:38 AM, Porthos said:

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	182	26961	27725	764	2.76%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

9

 

T-23 Comp:

%

Sold T-23

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

JWD

43.21

56

1768

0/179

22879/24647

7.17%

33839

2.26%

7.78m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     119/10130  [1.17% sold]
Matinee:    15/3525  [0.43% | 1.96% of all tickets sold]

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	182	26942	27722	780	2.81%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

16

 

T-22 Comp:

%

Sold T-22

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

JWD

43.12

41

1809

0/179

22839/24647

7.34%

33839

2.31%

7.76m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     119/10130  [1.17% sold]
Matinee:    15/3525  [0.43% | 1.92% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

@Menor Reborn Ran out of time today to really sit down and hack out a good adjustment for F9, but I plan on working on it tomorrow before Jedi Survivor drops when I have the time.  FWIW, NTTD will be coming online very soon, and possibly a couple of others.  So more comps coming soon — just not tonight.

Edited April 27, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	207	25745	29984	4239	14.14%

 

GOTG Marathon Showtimes Added	2
GOTG Marathon Seats Added	606
GOTG Marathon Seats Already Sold	79

 

Total Seats Sold Today From All Other Shows

124

 

T-9 Comps:

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	36.25		403	11693		0/353	30983/42676	27.40%		21117	20.07%		13.05m
L&T	55.41		288	7650		0/237	24964/32614	23.46%		16962	24.99%		16.07m
Bats	88.29		168	4801		0/297	31989/36790	13.05%		11757	36.06%		19.07m
BP2	52.22		300	8117		2/301	29820/37937	21.40%		16800	25.23%		14.62m
AM3	76.02		257	5576		0/238	27218/32794	17.00%		10475	40.47%		13.30m
JWD	125.41		194	3380		0/190	21844/25224	13.40%		10966	38.66%		22.57m
TGM	81.44		167	5205		0/268	31810/37015	14.06%		11474	36.94%		15.69m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       874/11539  [7.57% sold]
Matinee:    130/3372  [3.86% | 3.07% of all tickets sold]
3D:            487/5478  [8.89% | 11.49% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

As I noted earlier today, while I was checking out various things out, I discovered that a couple of theaters locally added the GOTG Marathon sometime in the last couple of weeks.  Those two showtimes accounted for 79 tickets sold at the time of discovery and were separated out of the daily total and put in a separate infobox.

 

At the time, this adjusted the comps upward by approx .25m, which isn't much but isn't nothing, either.

 

Now we see what, if any, effect CinemaCon might bring...

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	207	25574	29983	4409	14.70%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

170

 

T-8 Comps:

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	36.47		397	12090		0/353	30586/42676	28.33%		21117	20.88%		13.13m
L&T	55.57		284	7934		0/237	24680/32614	24.33%		16962	25.99%		16.12m
Bats	88.61		175	4976		0/297	31814/36790	13.53%		11757	37.50%		19.14m
BP2	52.59		267	8384		2/301	29553/37937	22.10%		16800	26.24%		14.72m
AM3	76.24		207	5783		0/237	26881/32664	17.70%		10475	42.09%		13.34m
JWD	123.47		191	3571		0/223	24183/27754	12.87%		10966	40.21%		22.22m
TGM	79.16		365	5570		0/268	31445/37015	15.05%		11474	38.43%		15.25m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      916/11539  [7.94% sold]
Matinee:    142/3372  [4.21% | 3.22% of all tickets sold]
3D:            520/5478  [9.49% | 11.79% of all tickets sold]

 

[Porthos]

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-29 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	153	21451	21905	454	2.07%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

454

 

 

Day One Comps:

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	249.45		182	182		0/73	11083/11265	1.62%		3951	11.49%		15.59m
BA	106.57		426	426		0/142	21387/21813	1.95%		4494	10.10%		8.10m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        50/5794  [0.86% sold]
Matinee:        3/625  [0.48% | 0.66% of all tickets sold]
3D:            86/4228  [2.03% | 18.94% of all tickets sold]

---

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***
TLM = 1.74026x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking after one day of sales [14.01m]
TLM = 0.58345x TS4 at the same sources of tracking after one day of sales      [8.05m]
TLM = 0.34957x TLK at the same sources of tracking after one day of sales      [9.25m]

NOTE:  All three films have been adjusted upwards by approx 15 percent to reflect the official NATO ATP difference in ticket price between 2019 and 2023.

 

====

 

Right off the bat, gonna mention that as have been noted by others, The Little Mermaid is in this weird place where it's a little too big for most family films but too small for the heavy hitters.  Thus really don't have great comps for this.

 

I've laid out all the reasons why I don't like comping films from before COVID, but I threw them in anyway.  FOR NOW I'm using the official ATP adjustment for 2019->2023 from NATO (14.956% hike) because, well, I really don't have any better.  And, frankly, it's an extremely unofficial comp so I don't want to waste too much time/brain power thinking about it.

 

As for sales?  Good enough, but I am a tiny bit concerned about how it was concentrated at a few theaters.  But it is a month out, and this is still a family film, so far too soon to make any sort of judgment.

 

Running super later so other thoughts will have to wait.   If anyone wants any other comps, lemme know and I'll see if I can didg something up when I have the time.

 

[Austin]

35 minutes ago, Porthos said:

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-29 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	153	21451	21905	454	2.07%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

454

 

 

Day One Comps:

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	249.45		182	182		0/73	11083/11265	1.62%		3951	11.49%		15.59m
BA	106.57		426	426		0/142	21387/21813	1.95%		4494	10.10%		8.10m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        50/5794  [0.86% sold]
Matinee:        3/625  [0.48% | 0.66% of all tickets sold]
3D:            86/4228  [2.03% | 18.94% of all tickets sold]

---

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***
TLM = 1.74026x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking after one day of sales [14.01m]
TLM = 0.58345x TS4 at the same sources of tracking after one day of sales      [8.05m]
TLM = 0.34957x TLK at the same sources of tracking after one day of sales      [9.25m]

NOTE:  All three films have been adjusted upwards by approx 15 percent to reflect the official NATO ATP difference in ticket price between 2019 and 2023.

 

====

 

Right off the bat, gonna mention that as have been noted by others, The Little Mermaid is in this weird place where it's a little too big for most family films but too small for the heavy hitters.  Thus really don't have great comps for this.

 

I've laid out all the reasons why I don't like comping films from before COVID, but I threw them in anyway.  FOR NOW I'm using the official ATP adjustment for 2019->2023 from NATO (14.956% hike) because, well, I really don't have any better.  And, frankly, it's an extremely unofficial comp so I don't want to waste too much time/brain power thinking about it.

 

As for sales?  Good enough, but I am a tiny bit concerned about how it was concentrated at a few theaters.  But it is a month out, and this is still a family film, so far too soon to make any sort of judgment.

 

Running super later so other thoughts will have to wait.   If anyone wants any other comps, lemme know and I'll see if I can didg something up when I have the time.

 

I'm kinda new to this tracking stuff but I was wondering if you had comps for Guardians 3? Like with the multipliers as in ×.0153.... of "comp". Or is that something else?

 

I'm sorry if I don't make sense rn it's late for me and probably for you too.

Edited April 27, 2023 by Austin

[JustLurking]

34 minutes ago, Austin said:

I'm kinda new to this tracking stuff but I was wondering if you had comps for Guardians 3? Like with the multipliers as in ×.0153.... of "comp". Or is that something else?

 

I'm sorry if I don't make sense rn it's late for me and probably for you too.

The comps are in the table, it has the % instead of the x but it's the same thing, and on the right you find the number it would lead to.