The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Hiccup23]

How is Little Mermaid tracking?

[Porthos]

22 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

what were you expecting? Spiderverse to track below 50m?

 

Mostly a joke.  But the first did open in the mid-30s, so jumping 60m to 85m-105m is quite the leap, even with ATP differences.

Edited May 5, 2023 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

Mostly a joke.  But the first did open in the mid-30s, so jumping 50m to 80m-90m is quite the leap, even with ATP differences.

That was also during Christmas time when OW is subdued but movies tend to leg out. If it tracked 50m it would be a disaster as its not going to have the legs of last one. 

[TheFlatLannister]

19 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

The Little Mermaid

 

THURSDAY 

 

T-21

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	2001	32751	6.1%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

25

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

ATP: $14.38

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

The Little Mermaid

 

THURSDAY 

 

T-20

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	2034	32751	6.2%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

33

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

ATP: $14.38

[TheFlatLannister]

26 minutes ago, Hiccup23 said:

How is Little Mermaid tracking?

Doing better than fast x… if that means anything since Orlando is a Disney stronghold 

Edited May 5, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[TheFlatLannister]

18 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION
 

FAST X

 

THURSDAY

 

T-14

 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
141	1576	28103	5.6%

^{*Numbers taken as of 7:30pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

29

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

ATP - $13.60

GREATER ORLANDO REGION
 

FAST X

 

THURSDAY

 

T-13

 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
141	1603	28103	5.7%

^{*Numbers taken as of 1:30pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

27

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

ATP - $13.60

Still not really doing anything big. Maybe next week 

 

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Hypnotic T-8: 22.39% Awareness, 5.73 Interest

About My Father T-22: 16.68%, 4.99

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse T-29: 46.6%, 6.23

The Blackening T-43: 20%, 5.31

The Flash T-43: 50.87%, 6.12

Oppenheimer T-78: 17.61%, 5.19

Talk To Me T-85: 14.66%, 5.16

Wonka T-225: 34.63%, 6.12

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 T-1: 59.42% Awareness, 6.51 Interest

Final Awareness: 7% chance of 100M

Final Interest: 100% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 25% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 100M

 

Love Again T-1: 25.15% Awareness, 5.08 Interest

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 41% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 20% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 33% chance of 10M

[PrinceRico]

27 minutes ago, Hiccup23 said:

How is Little Mermaid tracking?

BOP has it doing 105 4 day. Most likely will increase as we get closer.

[Shawn Robbins]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Why do you hate me, @Shawn?   What did I ever do to you? 

I could be wrong!

 

Are you lower or higher?

[Porthos]

41 minutes ago, Shawn said:

I could be wrong!

 

Are you lower or higher?

 

Hadn't really thought about it  — as I said I was mostly making a joke about having to do another monster track while doing simultaneously doing two other ones.  Does strike me as a tiny bit high as though what keysersoze said is absolutely right, a 3x jump is a hell of a jump.  

 

Also, admittedly, I'm also worried about a repeat of May 2019 coming where there were a bunch of was thought to be sure fire hits that cannibalized each other to some degree.  A lot of that was dealing with Endgame sucking up so much money to be sure.  But I do wonder if Mid May to Late June is just too damn crowded this year.  Within the span of seven weeks you have:

 

Fast X (May 19)

The Little Mermaid (May 26)

Across the Spider-Verse (June 2)

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (June 9)

Elemental (June 16)/The Flash (June 16)

Indy 5 (June 30)

 

Transformers bombing won't be a surprise [really, no clue how that's gonna do], and Elemental perhaps has to deal with the D+ effect.  And to be sure different demos at play.  But... I dunno.  Just seems a little crowded to me, ya know?

Edited May 5, 2023 by Porthos

[Shawn Robbins]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Hadn't really thought about it  — as I said I was mostly making a joke about having to do another monster track while doing simultaneously doing two other ones.  Does strike me as a tiny bit high as though what keysersoze said is absolutely right, a 3x jump is a hell of a jump.  

 

Also, admittedly, I'm also worried about a repeat of May 2019 coming where there were a bunch of was thought to be sure fire hits that cannibalized each other to some degree.  A lot of that was dealing with Endgame sucking up so much money to be sure.  But I do wonder if Mid May to Late June is just too damn crowded this year.  Within the span of seven weeks you have:

 

Fast X (May 19)

The Little Mermaid (May 26)

Across the Spider-Verse (June 2)

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (June 9)

Elemental (June 16)

Indy 5 (June 30)

 

Transformers bombing won't be a surprise [really, no clue how that's gonna do], and Elemental perhaps has to deal with the D+ effect.  And to be sure different demos at play.  But... I dunno.  Just seems a little crowded to me, ya know?

Makes total sense.

 

FWIW, I'm pretty cautious on Fast X, Beasts (this summer's MIB International/Terminator Dark Fate, IMO), and even Elemental to a degree.

 

Mermaid is a wild card to me. I can believe a breakout as much as I can the opposite. 

[grim22]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Hadn't really thought about it  — as I said I was mostly making a joke about having to do another monster track while doing simultaneously doing two other ones.  Does strike me as a tiny bit high as though what keysersoze said is absolutely right, a 3x jump is a hell of a jump.  

 

Also, admittedly, I'm also worried about a repeat of May 2019 coming where there were a bunch of was thought to be sure fire hits that cannibalized each other to some degree.  A lot of that was dealing with Endgame sucking up so much money to be sure.  But I do wonder if Mid May to Late June is just too damn crowded this year.  Within the span of seven weeks you have:

 

Fast X (May 19)

The Little Mermaid (May 26)

Across the Spider-Verse (June 2)

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (June 9)

Elemental (June 16)

Indy 5 (June 30)

 

Transformers bombing won't be a surprise [really, no clue how that's gonna do], and Elemental perhaps has to deal with the D+ effect.  And to be sure different demos at play.  But... I dunno.  Just seems a little crowded to me, ya know?

Interesting that you included Transformers but not The Flash.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

13 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Hadn't really thought about it  — as I said I was mostly making a joke about having to do another monster track while doing simultaneously doing two other ones.  Does strike me as a tiny bit high as though what keysersoze said is absolutely right, a 3x jump is a hell of a jump.  

 

Also, admittedly, I'm also worried about a repeat of May 2019 coming where there were a bunch of was thought to be sure fire hits that cannibalized each other to some degree.  A lot of that was dealing with Endgame sucking up so much money to be sure.  But I do wonder if Mid May to Late June is just too damn crowded this year.  Within the span of seven weeks you have:

 

Fast X (May 19)

The Little Mermaid (May 26)

Across the Spider-Verse (June 2)

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (June 9)

Elemental (June 16)

Indy 5 (June 30)

 

Transformers bombing won't be a surprise [really, no clue how that's gonna do], and Elemental perhaps has to deal with the D+ effect.  And to be sure different demos at play.  But... I dunno.  Just seems a little crowded to me, ya know?

 

This is what I've been saying for a while about this summer, particularly June. Too much stuff with similar demographics releasing so close to each other.

[poweranimals]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

That was also during Christmas time when OW is subued but movies tend to leg out. If it tracked 50m it would be a disaster as its not going to have the legs of last one. 

I also don't think people really knew what to expect from the first movie. That has definitely changed.

Edited May 5, 2023 by poweranimals

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Interesting that you included Transformers but not The Flash.

 

That's coz I forgot to put it in when I was scanning BOM just now.  No slight intended at all.  Think my eyes just slid right over it.

 

(what's funny is I saw it originally when I was putting together the list in my head of all of the films out there but when it came to typing I just skipped past it by mistake)

((Just human error in other words — apologies [and fixed]))

Edited May 5, 2023 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

That's coz I forgot to put it in when I was scanning BOM just now.  No slight intended at all.  Think my eyes just slid right over it.

 

(what's funny is I saw it originally when I was putting together the list in my head of all of the films out there but when it came to typing I just skipped past it by mistake)

((Just human error in other words — apologies [and fixed]))

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

 

=====

 

I mean, I don't have any particular animus against The Flash, and even if I did I'd be a fool to doubt that it's gonna be one of the biggest films of June, if not the biggest depending on Indy 5.  So in a clear eyed list of films beating each other up in that time period it has to be put on it.

 

Just a whiff on my part.

Edited May 5, 2023 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

 

=====

 

I mean, I don't have any particular animus against The Flash, and even if I did I'd be a fool to doubt that it's gonna be the biggest film of June.  So in a clear eyed list of films beating each other up in that time period it has to be put on it.

 

Just a whiff on my part.

Just kidding. I wanted to use that gif. I am sure you will be there tracking Flash. I am expecting ticket sales to start soon as well. 

[PrinceRico]

22 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

I also don't think people really knew what to expect from the first movie. That has definitely changed.

Yeah I think people forgot just how great WOM was for that film. Nobody expected it to be that good so that probably why we will see a huge increase with part 2. Also part two has every spider man you can think of. Theirs is even a spider T-Rex and Cat. It’s a comic book fans wet dream.

Edited May 5, 2023 by PrinceRico

[grim22]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

That's coz I forgot to put it in when I was scanning BOM just now.  No slight intended at all.  Think my eyes just slid right over it.

 

(what's funny is I saw it originally when I was putting together the list in my head of all of the films out there but when it came to typing I just skipped past it by mistake)

((Just human error in other words — apologies [and fixed]))