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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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On 5/16/2023 at 4:11 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

FAST X

 

THURSDAY

 

T-2

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

210

2493

35801

6.9%

*Numbers taken as of 4:00pm EST

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

285

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

56

 

SELLOUTS

0

ATP - $13.78

 

Good news, show allocation is way up. Bad news, pace is still pretty weak

 

COMPS

T-2

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.287x) ~$5.0M THUR

If it follows F9 IM (~$49.5M OW)

 

JOHN WICK 4

(0.983x) ~$8.7M THUR

If it follows F9 IM (~$86M OW)

 

Prediction as of rn: $68M OW ; $7M THUR 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

FAST X

 

THURSDAY

 

T-1

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

235

2967

40667

7.3%

*Numbers taken as of 5:00pm EST

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

474

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

25

 

SELLOUTS

0

ATP - $13.74

 

Not bad, not great. Feel pretty confident in $7M-$8M previews 

 

COMPS

T-1

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.316x) ~$5.5M THUR

If it follows F9 IM (~$54M OW)

 

JOHN WICK 4

(1.092x) ~$9.7M THUR

If it follows F9 IM (~$96M OW)

 

Prediction: $7.6M THUR 

 

If it follows F9 IM: $75M OW 

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19 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Why dont you use Shazam instead. That opened to 30m and I thought you tracked that movie. 

I tracked Shazam through ATOM (which doesn't include Regal chains) so a massive part of the data would be missing. I shifted to Fandango like right after Shazam premiered 

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On 5/16/2023 at 4:26 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Fast X Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 259 2437 10.63%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 206 1721 11.97%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
1285 197 21963 5.85% 13 120

 

0.806x Black Adam T-2 (6.13M)

0.293x JW Dominion T-2 (5.27M)

1.25x Ghostbusters Afterlife T-2 (5.60M)

0.732x NTTD T-2 (4.56M)

1.02x Fast 9 T-2 (7.27M)

Fast X Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 291 2437 11.94%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 219 1719 12.74%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
1496 211 24637 6.07% 13 133

 

0.796x Black Adam T-1 (6.00M)

0.297x JW Dominion T-1 (5.34M)

1.08x Ghostbusters T-1 (4.88M)

0.665x NTTD T-1 (4.14M)

0.973x Fast 9 T-1 (6.91M)

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14 minutes ago, screambaby said:

Thst will be a real intresting weekend thread if transformers opens to shaazam 2  or worse

The meltdowns on reddit will to be entertaining as hell.

 

But it will be nice to be the only one sitting in the theater watching the movie.

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On 5/16/2023 at 4:34 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Fast X Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-2 Thursday(229 showings): 3561(+614)/31203 ATP: $16.08

0.872x Black Adam T-2 (6.63M)

0.362x JW Dominion T-2 (6.52M)

0.923x Ghostbusters Afterlife T-2 (4.15M)

 

T-3 Friday(362 showings): 3924(+873)/47781 ATP: $16.34

0.930x Black Adam T-3 (17.74M)

0.337x JW Dominion T-3 (14.02M)

0.991x Ghostbusters Afterlife T-3 (12.04M)

 

T-4 Saturday(363 showings): 2603(+475)/47748 ATP: $15.95

0.687x Black Adam T-4 (16.29M)

0.227x JW Dominion T-4 (10.64M)

0.644x Ghostbusters Afterlife T-4 (10.59M)

 

T-5 Sunday(321 showings): 1071(+267)/42567 ATP: $15.64

0.744x Black Adam T-5 (12.36M)

0.171x JW Dominion T-5 (6.62M)

0.531x Ghostbusters Afterlife T-5 (5.79M)

Fast X Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-1 Thursday 237 Showings 4117 +556 32131 ATP: 16.00

 

0.892  Black Adam T-1 6.78M
0.361  JW Dominion T-1 6.50M
1.067  Ghostbusters T-1 4.80M

 

T-2 Friday 367 Showings 4828 +904 48306 ATP: 16.09

 

0.959  Black Adam T-2 18.31M
0.335  JW Dominion T-2 13.93M
1.00  Ghostbusters T-2 12.21M

 

T-3 Saturday 368 Showings 3185 +582 48273 ATP: 15.77

 

0.723  Black Adam T-3 17.14M
0.236  JW Dominion T-3 11.21M
0.649  Ghostbusters T-3 10.67M

 

T-4 Sunday 327 Showings 1328 +257 43115 ATP: 15.36

 

0.753  Black Adam T-4 12.50M
0.166  JW Dominion T-4 6.42M
0.560  Ghostbusters T-4 6.12M
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On 5/16/2023 at 4:38 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Little Mermaid Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 140 3215 4.35%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 117 2071 5.65%

 

Wednesday: 286(+33) sold

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
784 73 25319 3.81% 13 162

 

0.345x Avatar 2 T-9 (5.86M)

0.448x JW Dominion T-9 (8.04M)

2.29x Ghostbusters Afterlife T-9 (10.31M)

1.07x Shang-Chi T-9 (9.42M)

The Little Mermaid Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 164 3215 5.10%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 122 2071 5.89%

 

Wednesday: 286 sold

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
863 79 25433 3.39% 13 153

 

I realized I messed up on one of the theaters, so the seats sold was inflated. I'll go back and fix today and the previous days once I finish posting all data.

 

0.346x Avatar 2 T-8 (5.89M)

0.451x JW Dominion T-8 (8.12M)

2.26x Ghostbusters T-8 (10.16M)

1.03x Shang-Chi T-8 (9.04M)

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On 5/16/2023 at 4:46 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Little Mermaid Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-8 Wednesday(3 showings): 286(+11)/321

T-9 Thursday(152 showings): 3891(+246)/22574 ATP: $16.50

0.842x Avatar 2 T-9 (14.31M)

0.799x JW Dominion T-9 (14.39M)

1.89x Ghostbusters T-9 (8.52M)

 

T-10 Friday(203 showings): 5763(+358)/31556 ATP: $15.89

0.875x Avatar 2 T-10 (31.68M)

1.09x JW Dominion T-10 (45.33M)

2.94x Ghostbusters T-10 (35.73M)

 

T-11 Saturday(210 showings): 5893(+329)/32242

0.786x Avatar 2 T-11 (34.84M)

1.15x JW Dominion T-11 (53.92M)

2.99x Ghostbusters T-11 (49.15M)

 

T-12 Sunday(195 showings): 3889(+265)/29990

0.849x Avatar 2 T-12 (31.05M)

1.45x JW Dominion T-12 (56.14M)

4.21x Ghostbusters T-12 (46.00M)

 

The Little Mermaid Alamo Drafthouse

 

 

T-7 Wednesday 3 Showings 287 +1 321    
T-8 Thursday 156 Showings 4140 +249 23074 ATP: 16.49

0.830x Avatar 2 T-8 (14.10M)

1.87x Ghostbusters T-8 (8.43M)

 

T-9 Friday 210 Showings 6134 +371 32482 ATP: 15.84

0.873x Avatar 2 T-9 (31.60M)

2.90x Ghostbusters T-9 (35.24M)

 

T-10 Saturday 218 Showings 6248 +355 33183

0.776x Avatar 2 T-10 (34.40M)

2.95x Ghostbusters T-10 (48.49M)

 

T-11 Sunday 199 Showings 4183 +294 30543

0.828x Avatar 2 T-11 (30.30M)

4.17x Ghostbusters T-11 (45.49M)

 

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On 5/16/2023 at 4:48 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Across the Spider-Verse Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 349 3200 10.91%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 232 1875 12.37%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
1452 70 24658 5.89% 13 134

 

0.479x Ant-Man 3 T-16 (8.38M)

0.808x JW Dominion T-16 (14.55M)

0.466x Batman T-16 (10.07M)

1.21x Eternals T-16 (11.53M)

Across the Spider-Verse Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 351 3200 10.97%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 257 1875 13.71%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
1520 68 24658 6.16% 13 134

 

0.486x Ant-Man 3 T-15 (8.51M)

0.823x JW Dominion T-15 (14.82M)

1.20x Eternals T-15 (11.42M)

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On 5/16/2023 at 4:56 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Across the Spider-Verse Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-16 Thursday(129 showings): 3972(+128)/20228 ATP: $16.04

0.429x Ant-Man 3 T-16 (7.51M)

0.958x JW Dominion T-16 (17.24M)

0.550x Batman Thurs only T-16 (9.67M)

1.01x Eternals T-16 (9.60M)

 

T-17 Friday(176 showings): 3193(+169)/28935 ATP: $16.11

0.425x Ant-Man 3 T-17 (12.30M)

0.834x JW Dominion T-17 (34.69M)

0.459x Batman T-17 (16.05M)

1.03x Eternals T-17 (21.94M)

 

T-18 Saturday(169 showings): 3356(+156)/27994

0.489x Ant-Man 3 T-18 (16.58M)

0.894x JW Dominion T-18 (41.92M)

0.555x Batman T-18 (24.00M)

1.08x Eternals T-18 (25.94M)

 

T-19 Sunday(152 showings): 1752(+112)/25215

0.532x Ant-Man 3 T-19 (13.71M)

1.06x JW Dominion T-19 (40.86M)

0.712x Batman T-19 (24.29M)

1.04x Eternals T-19 (16.93M)

Across the Spider-Verse Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-15 Thursday 131 Showings 4122 +150 20419 ATP: 16.04

0.966x JW Dominion T-15 (17.38M)

0.973x Eternals T-15 (9.25M)

 

T-16 Friday 177 Showings 3410 +217 29026 ATP: 16.16

0.857x JW Dominion T-16 (35.64M)

0.963x Eternals T-16 (20.55M)

 

T-17 Saturday 170 Showings 3537 +181 28101

0.914x JW Dominion T-17 (42.86M)

0.986x Eternals T-17 (23.78M)

 

T-18 Sunday 153 Showings 1895 +143 25322

1.09x JW Dominion T-18 (42.04M)

0.918x Eternals T-18 (14.99M)

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Fast X

Thurs May 18 and Fri May 19 (T-2)

Toronto and Montreal Canada

 

Toronto # theatre #show Seats Sold Seats Rem Ttl seat Percent
Thurs 4 45 843 9421 10264 0.0821
Fri 4 69 1124 17276 18400 0.0610
             
Montreal # theatre #show Seats Sold Seats Rem Ttl seat Percent
Thurs 4 38 402 10976 11378 0.0353
Fri 3 44 507 12324 12831

0.0395

 

Antman Quantum

 

Antman Quantumania

Thurs Feb 16 and Fri Feb 17

Toronto Ontario and Montreal Quebec

 

    # theatre #show Seats Sold Seats Rem Ttl seat Percent
Toronto Thurs 4 36 2518 7614 10132 0.2485
  Fri 4 37 2248 7288 9536 0.2357

 

 

    # theatre #show Seats Sold Seats Rem Ttl seat Percent
Quebec Thurs 4 29 1294 6783 8077 0.1602
  Fri 4 23 1078 5219 6297 0.1711

 

 

GOTG 3

 

Toronto # theatre #show Seats Sold Seats Rem Ttl seat Percent
Thurs 4 39 1979 6467 8446 0.2343
Fri 4 70 2035 15328 17363 0.1172
             
Montreal  theatre #show Seats Sold Seats Rem Ttl seat Percent
Thurs 4 30 1184 7221 8405 0.1408
Fri 3 45 1071 12358 13429 0.0797

 

 

Total seat availablity

 

  Tor Thr Tor Fri Mtl Thr Mtl Fri
Fast X 10264 18400 11378 12831
Antman 3 10132 9536 8077 6297
Diff 132 8864 3301 6534
         
Fast X 10264 18400 11378 12831
GOTG 3 8846 17363 8405 13429
diff 1418 1037 2973 -598
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19 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

@Inceptionzq are you thinking sub $7M previews for Fast X? Your data seems to point to that

I'm on the fence. Besides F9, the other Denver comps aren't looking good, but maybe those comps aren't that great. Drafthouse looks better, and again maybe Ghostbusters isn't that good a comp. I've been paying attention to the F9 comp the most, and it's not even adjusted up to account for ticket price inflation. So in reality, the F9 comp is well over 7M, and should end well over that. Hopefully tomorrow gives a better picture, but I'm leaning more on the F9 comp so I guess I'm leaning towards over $7M.

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On 5/16/2023 at 8:52 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Spider-man across the spiderverse MTC1 Previews(T-16) - 69679/735087 1252781.51 3916 shows  //+2196

 

 

Spider-man across the spiderverse MTC1 Previews(T-15) - 72042/736262 1292596.46 3921 show // +2363

 

Comps

A2 - 74607 // T-14. So this should be on par

JWD - 63,886 // T-13. So this is ahead

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On 5/16/2023 at 8:40 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Mermaid MTC1

Wednesday - 13665/35113 293928.79 154 shows

Previews(T-9) - 46173/911348 800671.75 5563 shows +2854

Friday - 48061/1037055 798908.73 5716 shows +4169

 

Slowly moving up. 

 

Comps Previews (T-9)

A2 - 95281 for preview

TGM - 64101 for previews (and almost 40K for early shows)

JWD - 73833

Mermaid MTC1

Wednesday - 14163/35113 304404.79 154 shows +498

Previews(T-8) - 49414/915600 854249.60 5587 shows +3241

Friday - 53073/1038430 878058.33 5729 shows +5012

 

 

Comps Previews(T-8)

A2 - 101938

JWD - 78192

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On 5/16/2023 at 9:28 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Fast X MTC1 Previews (T-2) - 66134/794437 1153310.00 4456 shows +8796

Fast X MTC1 Previews (T-1) - 79352/811991 1363660.36 4568 shows +13218

 

 

F9 was around 67K. So this is comfortably ahead. But F9 sold 64K tickets with final day presales and walkups despite 7PM start. What can FX do with 2PM start let us see. I am thinking 8m previews for now.  I will update Friday presales tomorrow morning. 

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22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Across the Spider-Verse Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 days and counting

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

0

123

18098

19919

1821

9.14%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

79

 

T-16 Comps:

 

   

%

 

Sold
T-16

Total

Sold

 

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

 

Final

Sold

% of

Final

 

 

Comp

ET

103.70

 

137

1756

 

0/96

13774/15530

11.31%

 

6409

28.41%

 

11.14m

JWD

78.29

 

112

2326

 

0/190

22988/25314

9.19%

 

10966

16.61%

 

14.09m

BA

231.09

 

59

788

 

0/146

21279/22067

3.57%

 

4494

40.52%

 

17.56m

A2

69.88

 

98

2606

 

0/142

18732/21338

12.21%

 

8986

20.26%

 

11.88m

Wick 4

178.01

 

54

1023

 

0/88

12307/13330

7.67%

 

5448

33.43%

 

15.84m

GOTG3

52.36

 

45

3478

 

0/203

25617/29095

11.95%

 

8363

21.77%

 

9.16m

TLM

135.49

 

118

1344

 

0/154

21376/22720

1.08%

 

????

????

 

???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of AtSV's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ET COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x to reflect the ATP differences between now and then, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:       222/5583  [3.98% sold]
Matinee:    102/2373  [4.30% | 5.60% of all tickets sold]
------
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
AtSV = 1.185x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-16   [16.35m]    
AtSV = 0.76x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-16     [20.10m]    
AtSV = 1.59249x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-16 [15.57m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

 

Across the Spider-Verse Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days and counting

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

0

123

18027

19919

1892

9.50%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

71

 

T-15 Comps:

 

   

%

 

Sold
T-15

Total

Sold

 

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

 

Final

Sold

% of

Final

 

 

Comp

ET

100.48

 

127

1883

 

0/96

13658/15541

12.12%

 

6409

29.52%

 

10.79m

JWD

78.02

 

99

2425

 

0/191

22947/25372

9.56%

 

10966

17.25%

 

14.04m

BA

221.81

 

65

853

 

0/146

21214/22067

3.87%

 

4494

42.10%

 

16.86m

A2

70.20

 

89

2695

 

0/142

18643/21338

12.63%

 

8986

21.05%

 

11.93m

Wick 4

174.06

 

64

1087

 

0/88

12243/13330

8.15%

 

5448

34.73%

 

15.49m

GOTG3

53.34

 

69

3547

 

0/203

25548/29095

12.19%

 

8363

22.62%

 

9.33m

TLM

131.39

 

96

1440

 

0/154

21277/22717

1.08%

 

????

????

 

???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of AtSV's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ET COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x to reflect the ATP differences between now and then, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     227/5583  [4.07% sold]
Matinee:    104/2373  [4.38% | 5.50% of all tickets sold]
-----
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
AtSV = 1.17529x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-15  [16.22m]    
AtSV = 0.74058x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-15 [19.59m]    
AtSV = 1.4715x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-15      [14.38m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

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22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

0

165

21370

23500

2130

9.06%

 

Total Showings Added Today

12

Total Seats Added Today

886

Total Seats Sold Today

125

 

T-9 Comps:

 

   

%

 

Sold
T-9

Total

Sold

 

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

 

Final

Sold

% of

Final

 

 

Comp

Sonic 2

328.70

 

36

648

 

0/89

11792/12440

5.21%

 

3951

53.91%

 

20.54m

JWD

66.85

 

192

3186

 

0/191

22186/25372

12.56%

 

10966

19.42%

 

12.03m

BA

190.01

 

47

1121

 

0/148

21302/22423

5.00%

 

4494

47.40%

 

14.44m

Scream VI

263.61

 

46

808

 

0/77

8931/9739

8.30%

 

3134

67.96%

 

15.03m

Wick 4

159.79

 

49

1333

 

0/95

12458/13791

9.67%

 

5448

39.10%

 

14.22m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     321/5603  [5.73% sold]
Matinee:    73/621  [11.76% | 3.43% of all tickets sold]
3D:            240/3948  [6.08% | 11.27% of all tickets sold]
———    
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
TLM = 1.90811x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking at T-9 [15.36m]    
TLM = 1.04497x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-9 [14.42m]    
TLM = 0.57837x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-9 [15.30m]    
TLM = 1.04323x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-9 [10.20m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days and counting

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

0

165

21248

23500

2252

9.58%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

122

 

T-8 Comps:

 

   

%

 

Sold
T-8

Total

Sold

 

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

 

Final

Sold

% of

Final

 

 

Comp

Sonic 2

276.32

 

102

815

 

0/92

12122/12937

6.30%

 

3951

57.00%

 

17.27m

JWD

63.06

 

191

3571

 

0/223

24183/27754

12.87%

 

10966

20.54%

 

11.35m

BA

176.77

 

82

1274

 

0/152

21685/22959

5.55%

 

4494

50.11%

 

13.43m

Scream VI

252.47

 

42

892

 

0/77

8855/9747

9.15%

 

3134

71.86%

 

14.39m

Wick 4

142.26

 

120

1583

 

0/109

13716/15299

10.35%

 

5448

41.34%

 

12.66m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:       335/5603  [5.98% sold]
Matinee:        79/621  [12.72% | 3.51% of all tickets sold]
3D:            254/3948  [6.43% | 11.28% of all tickets sold]
———    
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
TLM = 1.92015x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking at T-8 [15.46m]    
TLM = 1.05564x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-8      [14.57m]    
TLM = 0.55816x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-8      [14.76m]    
TLM = 1.05877x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-8         [10.35m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

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