The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Inceptionzq]

20 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Fast X Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-1 Thursday

237 Showings

4117

+556

32131

ATP:

16.00

 

0.892	Black Adam T-1	6.78M
0.361	JW Dominion T-1	6.50M
1.067	Ghostbusters T-1	4.80M

 

Fast X Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-0 Thursday

237 Showings

5272

+1155

32131

ATP:

15.80

 

0.890	Black Adam T-0	6.76M
0.361	JW Dominion T-0	6.49M
1.061	Ghostbusters T-0	4.77M

[TheFlatLannister]

On 5/17/2023 at 12:35 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Elemental

 

THURSDAY

 

T-29 *First 24 hours

 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
82	346	12052	2.9%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

ATP: $12.80

 

 

COMPS

First 24 hours

 

Little Mermaid

(0.228x)

 

 

Across the Spider-verse

(0.152x) 

 

 

Mario

(0.110x)

 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Elemental

 

THURSDAY

 

T-28

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
82	343	12052	2.8%

^{*Numbers taken as of 4:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

-3

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

No way LMAO. I've never seen anything like this. It's pointless tracking this everyday. Going to update next week 

[Inceptionzq]

20 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Fast X Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

291

2437

11.94%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

219

1719

12.74%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1496	211	24637	6.07%	13	133

 

0.796x Black Adam T-1 (6.00M)

0.297x JW Dominion T-1 (5.34M)

1.08x Ghostbusters T-1 (4.88M)

0.665x NTTD T-1 (4.14M)

0.973x Fast 9 T-1 (6.91M)

Fast X Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

373

2436

15.31%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

251

1718

14.61%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2083	589	25107	8.30%	13	135

 

0.716x Black Adam T-0 (5.44M)

0.291x JW Dominion T-0 (5.24M)

1.03x Ghostbusters T-0 (4.64M)

0.710x NTTD T-0 (4.42M)

0.725x Fast 9 T-0 (5.15M)

 

Most of the comps aren't looking great... Fast 9 is still looking ok if you consider the price inflation since then, and the fact that previews started at 7PM. With previews at 7, most of the walkups are already baked into sales before the first showing. But with Fast X starting at 2, there should still be a good chunk of walkups. Not sure exactly how much it should be adjusted up, but not sure if it even clears 7M now after adjustments. And maybe it's just Denver underperforming, Drafthouse is looking better but still not clear of 7M. I think Denver is just underperforming, but I'll go with 6.5M

[TheFlatLannister]

21 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

The Little Mermaid

 

THURSDAY

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	3090	32751	9.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 5:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

162

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

ATP: $14.38

 

 

COMPS

T-8

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.471x) ~$8.2M THUR

 

If it follows Aladdin IM (~$104M OW)

 

Mario

(0.606x) ~$19.4M THUR

 

If previews fall in between both of these comps: ~$13.8M THUR

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

The Little Mermaid

 

THURSDAY

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	3191	32751	9.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 5:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

101

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-7

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.484x) ~$8.5M THUR

 

If it follows Aladdin IM (~$108M OW)

 

Mario

(0.607x) ~$19.4M THUR

 

If previews fall in between both of these comps: ~$13.8M THUR

[Porthos]

47 minutes ago, M37 said:

So the same skew towards high profile (and presumably PLF heavier) locations in the micro as we’re seeing in the macro with MTC vs markets. If you have it handy, how does PLF share compare to comps like BA, JWD, maybe JW4?

 

PLF share is actually slightly softer for a film in this range as I think folks aren't feeling the need to upgrade to a higher priced ticket (which also might say something)

 

JWD:      33.94% (final)

BA:          44.88% (final)

Wick 4:   45.50% (final)

FX:          39.41% (so far)

 

47 minutes ago, M37 said:

Really feels like the causal/GA draw is just softer here, and that doesn’t portend well for weekend, unless it shifts  after Thursday. Currently thinking low $60s for weekend (and I’m not 100% sure $60M is the floor…)

 

Been harping on this a lot, but the 2pm vs 7pm start times for their respective previews is gonna take an absolute hatchet to the IM.  Especially with the reviews being, last I checked, just okay/alright.

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Transformer: Rise of the beast

 

THURSDAY includes EA 

 

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
108	1004	22296	4.5%

^{*Numbers taken as of 5:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

15

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

ATP: $14.87

 

 

COMPS

T-22

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.216x) ~$3.9M THUR 

 

If it follows Bumblebee IM ~$29M OW

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Transformer: Rise of the beast

 

THURSDAY includes EA 

 

T-21

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
108	1052	22296	4.7%

^{*Numbers taken as of 4:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

48

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

 

COMPS

T-21

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.224x) ~$4M THUR 

 

If it follows Bumblebee IM ~$30M OW

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

 

THURSDAY

 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
119	3003	25449	11.8%

*Numbers taken as of 5:00pm EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

77

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

ATP - $13.45

 

 

COMPS

T-15

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.583x) ~$10.2M THUR

 

If it follows ITSV IM (~$100M OW)

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

 

THURSDAY

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
121	3217	26292	12.2%

*Numbers taken as of 4:00pm EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

214

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-14

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.618x) ~$10.8M THUR

 

If it follows ITSV IM (~$107M OW)

[Porthos]

52 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Transformers tracking from Deadline (which is likely via NRG, but not confirmed) is definitely a head-scratcher to me. I'm raising the range on BOP tomorrow, but not nearly that much. Might end up landing in between when it actually opens, but I'm still just very concerned with competition + brand overexposure -- unless something else is going to significantly disappoint and balance things out. But that would surprise me at the moment.

 

FWIW, sales locally for Rise of the Beasts have been fairly decent.  Not quite decent enough for me to devote a track, especially with so many other balls in the air right now, but it's running at about 1.85x Shazam 2 and about .312x of JWD as of right now. 

 

Can't really comp it against many other movies due to disparate pre-sale windows, but, dunno... 40m-50m OW wouldn't shock me, ya know?  Not saying you should bump it up that high, but I do think it's trending upwards.

 

My real problem is, since I have so many other films to track, I haven't been keeping track of the daily pace, so I don't know how well it's been doing day to day.

 

Will say, however, am gonna have to start thinking about keeping a closer eye on it if it keeps showing some local strength.

 

(yay)

[keysersoze123]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

FWIW, sales locally for Rise of the Beasts have been fairly decent.  Not quite decent enough for me to devote a track, especially with so many other balls in the air right now, but it's running at about 1.85x Shazam 2 and about .312x of JWD as of right now. 

 

Can't really comp it against many other movies due to disparate pre-sale windows, but, dunno... 40m-50m OW wouldn't shock me, ya know?  Not saying you should bump it up that high, but I do think it's trending upwards.

 

My real problem is, since I have so many other films to track, I haven't been keeping track of the daily pace, so I don't know how well it's been doing day to day.

 

Will say, however, am gonna have to start thinking about keeping a closer eye on it if it keeps showing some local strength.

 

(yay)

How about Elemental ? I hope you are mental enough to take a look. 

 

[M37]

44 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

So what I'm gathering from this thread is Fast previews will probably be $7m-$8m but it will have a lower IM than F9 

 

Sub $60m would be bad

17 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Been harping on this a lot, but the 2pm vs 7pm start times for their respective previews is gonna take an absolute hatchet to the IM.  Especially with the reviews being, last I checked, just okay/alright.

 

Yes on the lower IM, though to be fair, F9 having basically a 10x in June is pretty ridiculous, and almost certainly due to being released early in the pandemic recovery period when audiences were not yet back to the typical routine. The only non-horror film to have better than a 9.1x since November is Creed III, and still mostly think the 8-9x range of Black Adam and Wick 4 is more what we should see ...

 

... but I'm becoming less sure of at least $7M for Thursday. The only explanations that make sense are either that this franchise is such a later night, walk-up friendly crowd that the early time spot check is just missing a good number of sales vs comparables and generating comp values that are too low, or MTC1 - which I currently have penciled in for a 135K-140K finish - is going to overindex on a Batman type level (~$50 PSM)

 

Something like a $6.7M Thur & 8.5x = $57M OW is very much on the table

[Starphanluke]

I've never kept data for tracking or comping, so no hard numbers or anything from me, but near me (big city in the midwest):

 

Transformers is surprisingly consistent. Soft first day, but continuing to sell seats at a consistent rate. The first Thurs showings are looking okay. The Early Previews on Wednesday are looking okay, too. 

 

Fast X is way lower than I expected. Lots of empty screenings. But also... a LOT of screenings for Friday. Maybe that's why.

 

I know this info isn't actually helpful to tracking. But it's fun to look at. 

Edited May 18, 2023 by Starphanluke

[Shawn Robbins]

25 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

FWIW, sales locally for Rise of the Beasts have been fairly decent.  Not quite decent enough for me to devote a track, especially with so many other balls in the air right now, but it's running at about 1.85x Shazam 2 and about .312x of JWD as of right now. 

 

Can't really comp it against many other movies due to disparate pre-sale windows, but, dunno... 40m-50m OW wouldn't shock me, ya know?  Not saying you should bump it up that high, but I do think it's trending upwards.

 

My real problem is, since I have so many other films to track, I haven't been keeping track of the daily pace, so I don't know how well it's been doing day to day.

 

Will say, however, am gonna have to start thinking about keeping a closer eye on it if it keeps showing some local strength.

 

(yay)

Very good points. It's a bit stronger than Shazam comps in my samples for today as well. Thinking of a bump to 35-45 for now to see how growth goes, but wouldn't rule out 50 by any means. I'd like to see some growth for Friday especially.

 

Having all these fan movies on sale at the same time next week is going to create a lot of comp headaches, too.

 

Also bumping Mermaid up tomorrow. @charlie Jatinder will be happy about that.

[Porthos]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

How about Elemental ? I hope you are mental enough to take a look. 

 

 

Checked the first day of sales a couple of days ago and...

 

...

 

Look, you don't want to know. 

[Porthos]

24 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Checked the first day of sales a couple of days ago and...

 

...

 

Look, you don't want to know. 

 

Alright.

 

I mean.

 

Look.  There's a very good reason why I stayed shtum about Elemental's first day of sales locally, as I didn't want to feed the hysteria.  There was zero reason for it to have such a long pre-sale window and it makes comping it against anything almost impossible, if not worse than useless.  In fact, I came to believe that discussing its first day of sales had literally negative value, as in it would be worse TO discuss it than not discuss it.

 

That being said:

 

It sold a grand total of 37 tickets locally on its first day.

 

For comparison:

Sonic 2:       182 tickets on Day 1

Shazam 2:   118 tickets on Day 1

Minions 2:     68 tickets on Day 1

Nope:            57 tickets on Day 1

 

Literally everything else that is remotely in the right genre/sales pace is absolutely useless to bring up since they had around 18 to 21 days of presales (or less) instead of 30.

 

Still, 37 tickets sold on Day 1 was... Well, let's just say I probably won't be looking at it again until much closer to release.

 

(it's at 56 tickets sold right now)

Edited May 18, 2023 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Alright.

 

I mean.

 

Look.  There's a very good reason why I stayed shtum about Elemental's first day of sales locally, as I didn't want to feed the hysteria.  There was zero reason for it to have such a long pre-sale window and it makes comping it against anything almost impossible, if not worse than useless.  In fact, I came to believe that discussing its first day of sales had literally negative value, as in it would be worse TO discuss it than not discuss it.

 

That being said:

 

It sold a grand total of 37 tickets locally on its first day.

 

For comparison:

Sonic 2:       182 tickets on Day 1

Shazam 2:   118 tickets on Day 1

Minions 2:     68 tickets on Day 1

Nope:            57 tickets on Day 1

 

Literally everything else is absolutely useless to bring up since they had around 18 to 21 days of presales (or less) instead of 30.

 

Still, 37 tickets sold on Day 1 was... Well, let's just say I probably won't be looking at it again until much closer to release.

 

(it's at 56 tickets sold right now)

That is not bad at all. I expected worse. I dont know what Disney was thinking putting this movie in the middle of all big movies plus starting presales so early. At least could have waited until "Standing Ovation" from Cannes was out. 

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

That is not bad at all. I expected worse. I dont know what Disney was thinking putting this movie in the middle of all big movies plus starting presales so early. At least could have waited until "Standing Ovation" from Cannes was out. 

 

Got to admit, I literlly have next to no frame of reference for it, which is the OTHER reason why I haven't been talking about it.

 

About the only frame of reference I do have is probably Nope, and lo and behold, that's why I softed this comment about it as a comp yesterday:

 

On 5/17/2023 at 2:05 PM, Porthos said:

Along those lines, the only one that might fit is, believe it or not, Nope.  Horror is a semi-similar genre when it comes to sales patterns and Nope had an even longer pre-sale window than Elemental.  Will be ATP differences, but as I think about it, probably the least-bad comp we have when we want to discuss films that were tracked that didn't have an ounce of frontloading.

 

 

[Inceptionzq]

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Fast X Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-2 Friday

367 Showings

4828

+904

48306

ATP:

16.09

 

0.959	Black Adam T-2	18.31M
0.335	JW Dominion T-2	13.93M
1.00	Ghostbusters T-2	12.21M

 

T-3 Saturday

368 Showings

3185

+582

48273

ATP:

15.77

 

0.723	Black Adam T-3	17.14M
0.236	JW Dominion T-3	11.21M
0.649	Ghostbusters T-3	10.67M

 

T-4 Sunday

327 Showings

1328

+257

43115

ATP:

15.36

 

0.753	Black Adam T-4	12.50M
0.166	JW Dominion T-4	6.42M
0.560	Ghostbusters T-4	6.12M

Fast X Alamo Drafthouse

 

 

T-1 Friday

368 Showings

6111

+1283

48432

ATP:

15.94

 

0.977	Black Adam T-1	18.65M
0.344	JW Dominion T-1	14.31M
1.020	Ghostbusters T-1	12.40M

 

T-2 Saturday

368 Showings

3825

+640

48273

ATP:

15.66

 

0.716	Black Adam T-2	16.98M
0.234	JW Dominion T-2	10.99M
0.663	Ghostbusters T-2	10.90M

 

T-3 Sunday

327 Showings

1643

+315

43115

ATP:

15.20

 

0.755	Black Adam T-3	12.53M
0.171	JW Dominion T-3	6.59M
0.582	Ghostbusters T-3	6.36M

[Inceptionzq]

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Little Mermaid Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

164

3215

5.10%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

122

2071

5.89%

 

Wednesday: 286 sold

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
863	79	25433	3.39%	13	153

 

I realized I messed up on one of the theaters, so the seats sold was inflated. I'll go back and fix today and the previous days once I finish posting all data.

 

0.346x Avatar 2 T-8 (5.89M)

0.451x JW Dominion T-8 (8.12M)

2.26x Ghostbusters T-8 (10.16M)

1.03x Shang-Chi T-8 (9.04M)

The Little Mermaid Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

173

3215

5.38%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

126

2071

6.08%

 

Wednesday: 307

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
902	39	25435	3.55%	13	153

 

0.340x Avatar 2 T-7 (5.78M)

1.00x Shang-Chi T-7 (8.82M)

[vafrow]

46 minutes ago, Starphanluke said:

I've never kept data for tracking or comping, so no hard numbers or anything from me, but near me (big city in the midwest):

 

Transformers is surprisingly consistent. Soft first day, but continuing to sell seats at a consistent rate. The first Thurs showings are looking okay. The Early Previews on Wednesday are looking okay, too. 

 

Fast X is way lower than I expected. Lots of empty screenings. But also... a LOT of screenings for Friday. Maybe that's why.

 

I know this info isn't actually helpful to tracking. But it's fun to look at. 

 

All data helps.

 

I was doing the same as you and just eyeball my local theatre. But, I just started logging things a bit in a Google sheet. Nothing fancy, but, it helps to have that context.

 

It's not on the same level as the detailed trackers, but useful as an extra data point. It also just helpful to understand how my theatre ends up differinf from broader trends.

[keysersoze123]

On 5/16/2023 at 9:59 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Transformers MTC1

Wednesday - 8244/35667 161380.90 179 shows

Previews - 16040/617579 294992.06 3293 shows

Transformers MTC1

Wednesday - 9322/35667 183096.68 179 shows

Previews - 17227/619911 318188.23 3308 shows

 

Overall number including fan shows is not bad. Pace is slightly more than 1K tickets per day if you include both days. At least this is not like other movie selling under 200 tickets per day !!! That said Transformers used to be huge fan driven in its heyday. 2nd movie almost broke midnight record set by TDK year earlier. So this number have to be taken in context. 

 

Its still ahead of JW4 at similar point thought that movie had very strong finish. Not sure this movie can pull that.