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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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Posted by Shawn Robbins,

PSA:   As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum.   Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box o
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Posted by XXRDJisDoctorDoom,

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban.    Anyone else continues, it's points. 

We're all tired of the non-tracking related thread derailments. This is your fair warning.

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 6/14/2023 at 3:11 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Flash Alamo Drafthouse

T-1 Thursday 197 Showings 6912 +1117 27117 ATP: 15.39
0.532 Across the Spider-Verse T-1 9.23M
0.402 Guardians T-1 7.03M
0.387 Ant-Man 3 T-1 6.78M
1.498 Black Adam T-1 11.39M
0.315 Thor L&T T-1 9.13M
0.383 The Batman T-1 6.74M
0.874 Eternals T-1 8.30M

 

T-2 Friday 294 Showings 5496 +994 40436 ATP: 15.53
0.426 Across the Spider-Verse T-2 14.70M
0.307 Guardians T-2 9.40M
0.298 Ant-Man 3 T-2 8.61M
1.092 Black Adam T-2 20.84M
0.269 Thor L&T T-2 10.93M
0.252 The Batman T-2 8.82M
0.631 Eternals T-2 13.46M

 

T-3 Saturday 294 Showings 4516 +738 40753 ATP: 15.00
0.406 Across the Spider-Verse T-3 15.19M
0.229 Guardians T-3 8.91M
0.248 Ant-Man 3 T-3 8.40M
1.025 Black Adam T-3 24.30M
0.237 Thor L&T T-3 10.00M
0.197 The Batman T-3 8.50M
0.546 Eternals T-3 13.17M

 

T-4 Sunday 270 Showings 2966 +708 37826 ATP: 14.31
0.432 Across the Spider-Verse T-4 13.50M
0.257 Guardians T-4 8.08M
0.307 Ant-Man 3 T-4 7.92M
1.682 Black Adam T-4 27.93M
0.256 Thor L&T T-4 8.33M
0.245 The Batman T-4 8.36M
0.603 Eternals T-4 9.84M

The Flash Alamo Drafthouse

T-0 Thursday 206 Showings 9589 +2677 27994 ATP: 15.26
0.538 Across the Spider-Verse T-0 9.33M
0.472 Guardians T-0 8.26M
0.453 Ant-Man 3 T-0 7.92M
1.544 Black Adam T-0 11.73M
0.358 Thor L&T T-0 10.37M
0.449 The Batman T-0 7.91M
0.955 Eternals T-0 9.07M

 

T-1 Friday 294 Showings 6941 +1445 40453 ATP: 15.39
0.405 Across the Spider-Verse T-1 13.97M
0.339 Guardians T-1 10.38M
0.329 Ant-Man 3 T-1 9.51M
1.110 Black Adam T-1 21.19M
0.279 Thor L&T T-1 11.31M
0.275 The Batman T-1 9.66M
0.665 Eternals T-1 14.19M

 

T-2 Saturday 294 Showings 5508 +992 40753 ATP: 14.82
0.391 Across the Spider-Verse T-2 14.64M
0.247 Guardians T-2 9.59M
0.270 Ant-Man 3 T-2 9.14M
1.031 Black Adam T-2 24.45M
0.243 Thor L&T T-2 10.23M
0.205 The Batman T-2 8.88M
0.557 Eternals T-2 13.43M

 

T-3 Sunday 270 Showings 3874 +908 37963 ATP: 14.24
0.442 Across the Spider-Verse T-3 13.80M
0.292 Guardians T-3 9.17M
0.353 Ant-Man 3 T-3 9.09M
1.780 Black Adam T-3 29.56M
0.287 Thor L&T T-3 9.31M
0.261 The Batman T-3 8.90M
0.681 Eternals T-3 11.13M
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, M37 said:

Fwiw, I still have your expected final sales at 5200, or ~1600 for final day, and pace has even picked up a bit, so maybe ~5400 now

 

Yes, but to match Shazam 2 it would need over 2000 tickets sold for the whole day.  The 1400+ figure I mentioned is for the final few hours of tracking (which will start soon-ish).

 

Still, I do think the Shazam 2 comp is gonna be hot for a variety of factors, not the least of which is comparing a 3m movie versus a 9s to 10s one.  But I will be giving it some weight do it being the most recent DC comp (current market conditions, ATP, vibes, etc).

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, M37 said:

Fwiw, I still have your expected final sales at 5200, or ~1600 for final day, and pace has even picked up a bit, so maybe ~5400 now

That's still well below +1400 from this point though. I would be quite surprised if it did 1400 in the final update from just 634 in the initial one. Probably more like 1k.

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 6/14/2023 at 3:08 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Flash Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 478 2182 21.91%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 328 1497 21.91%

 

Monday: 238

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
2081 323 21254 9.79% 13 122

 

0.498 Across the Spider-Verse T-1 8.65M
0.450 Guardians 3 T-1 7.88M
0.406 Ant-Man 3 T-1 7.11M
1.224 Black Adam T-1 9.30M
0.256 Thor L&T T-1 7.43M
0.331 Batman T-1 7.15M
0.811 Eternals T-1 7.70M

The Flash Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 636 2178 29.20%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 398 1399 28.45%

 

Monday: 238

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
3084 1003 21145 14.59% 13 121

 

0.502 Across the Spider-Verse T-0 8.71M
0.487 Guardians 3 T-0 8.53M
0.462 Ant-Man 3 T-0 8.09M
1.142 Black Adam T-0 8.68M
0.272 Thor L&T T-0 7.87M
0.383 Batman T-0 8.28M
0.746 Eternals T-0 7.09M

 

The Black Adam comp dropping in Denver is a bit concerning, but mostly increases across the board in comps. Should be a decent sign for walkups to push the comps up a bit more. I'll go with 9.1M

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 6/14/2023 at 3:13 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 156 2338 6.67%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 199 1365 14.58%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
725 17 20094 3.61% 13 102

 

0.393 JW Dominion T-15 7.07M
2.562 Ghostbusters T-15 11.53M
1.739 NTTD T-15 10.83M

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 160 2338 6.84%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 205 1365 15.02%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
745 20 20094 3.71% 13 102

 

0.305 Avatar 2 T-14 5.18M
2.500 Ghostbusters T-14 11.25M
1.693 NTTD T-14 10.55M
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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 6/14/2023 at 3:14 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alamo Drafthouse

T-15 Thursday 115 Showings 4492 +133 18793 ATP: 15.61
1.052 JW Dominion T-15 18.94M
3.077 Ghostbusters T-15 13.85M

 

T-16 Friday 159 Showings 3882 +120 26614 ATP: 15.46
0.976 JW Dominion T-16 40.59M
3.390 Ghostbusters T-16 41.19M

 

T-17 Saturday 159 Showings 3757 +106 26754 ATP: 14.69
0.971 JW Dominion T-17 45.54M
3.595 Ghostbusters T-17 59.11M

 

T-18 Sunday 139 Showings 1975 +99 23618 ATP: 14.22
1.135 JW Dominion T-18 43.81M
4.438 Ghostbusters T-18 48.47M

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alamo Drafthouse

T-14 Thursday 115 Showings 4617 +125 18793 ATP: 15.64
1.194 Avatar 2 T-14 20.30M
2.931 Ghostbusters T-14 13.19M

 

T-15 Friday 159 Showings 4021 +139 26614 ATP: 15.45
0.852 Avatar 2 T-15 30.83M
3.149 Ghostbusters T-15 38.26M

 

T-16 Saturday 159 Showings 3888 +131 26754 ATP: 14.72
0.698 Avatar 2 T-16 30.95M
3.378 Ghostbusters T-16 55.53M

 

T-17 Sunday 139 Showings 2086 +111 23618 ATP: 14.23
0.647 Avatar 2 T-17 23.66M
4.240 Ghostbusters T-17 46.30M
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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 6/14/2023 at 3:15 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Emagine Entertainment

T-15 Thursday 143 Showings 909 +46 22137

 

T-16 Friday 232 Showings 461 +45 35232

 

T-17 Saturday 235 Showings 258 +13 35764

 

T-18 Sunday 228 Showings 107 +6 34520

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Emagine Entertainment

T-14 Thursday 143 Showings 919 +10 22139

 

T-15 Friday 232 Showings 503 +42 35232

 

T-16 Saturday 235 Showings 265 +7 35764

 

T-17 Sunday 228 Showings 119 +12 34520
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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 6/14/2023 at 3:17 PM, Inceptionzq said:

MI: Dead Reckoning Part 1 Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 55 2035 2.70%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 75 1466 5.12%

 

Sunday: 24

Monday: 158

Tuesday:

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
237 N/A 22000 1.08% 13 108

MI: Dead Reckoning Part 1 Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 65 1978 3.29%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 106 1519 6.98%

 

Sunday: 32(+8)

Monday: 205(+47)

Tuesday:

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
310 73 21996 1.41% 13 108

 

1.499 Indiana Jones Day 2  
0.474 Avatar 2 Day 2 8.06M
0.720 JW Dominion Day 2 12.96M
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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Yes, but to match Shazam 2 it would need over 2000 tickets sold for the whole day.  The 1400+ figure I mentioned is for the final few hours of tracking (which will start soon-ish).

 

Still, I do think the Shazam 2 comp is gonna be hot for a variety of factors, not the least of which is comparing a 3m movie versus a 9s to 10s one.  But I will be giving it some weight do it being the most recent DC comp (current market conditions, ATP, vibes, etc).

12 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

That's still well below +1400 from this point though. I would be quite surprised if it did 1400 in the final update from just 634 in the initial one. Probably more like 1k.

Ah, misunderstood - yeah, that definitely will come down then, but plenty of room to do so given the value vs the others. Another 1K would be the +1600 total I mentioned, but I’d probably take the over, if only slightly 

 

For some reason, Sacto has been a little pre-sale lite recently, usually the lowest comp values among the major samples, but then catching back up to the pack towards the finish, especially on final day. Meanwhile, Philly has been running hotter earlier and falling back at the finish. Don’t have an explanation for either, just noting it 

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 6/14/2023 at 3:19 PM, Inceptionzq said:

MI: Dead Reckoning Part 1 Alamo Drafthouse

T-27 Tuesday 105 Showings 762 +762 17851 ATP: 8.78

 

T-28 Wednesday 108 Showings 245 +245 18727 ATP: 17.68

 

T-29 Thursday 117 Showings 268 +268 19700 ATP: 16.20

 

T-30 Friday 117 Showings 453 +453 19761 ATP: 16.56

 

T-31 Saturday 123 Showings 480 +480 20838 ATP: 16.41

 

Looks like Drafthouse is doing the discount day as well

MI: Dead Reckoning Part 1 Alamo Drafthouse

T-26 Tuesday 105 Showings 941 +179 17851 ATP: 8.70
0.413 Indiana Jones Day 2  
0.525 Avatar 2 Day 2 8.93M
0.493 JW Dominion Day 2 8.88M

 

T-27 Wednesday 108 Showings 307 +62 18727 ATP: 17.96

 

T-28 Thursday 117 Showings 329 +61 19700 ATP: 16.24

 

T-29 Friday 117 Showings 580 +127 19761 ATP: 16.40
0.317 Indiana Jones Day 2  
0.274 Avatar 2 Day 2 9.92M
0.454 JW Dominion Day 2 18.89M

 

T-30 Saturday 123 Showings 628 +148 20838 ATP: 16.44
0.406 Indiana Jones Day 2  
0.272 Avatar 2 Day 2 12.07M
0.518 JW Dominion Day 2 24.30M
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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 6/14/2023 at 3:20 PM, Inceptionzq said:

MI: Dead Reckoning Part 1 Emagine Entertainment

T-26 Monday 4 Showings 54 +54 989
T-27 Tuesday 160 Showings 164 +164 25284

 

T-28 Wednesday 204 Showings 44 +44 31830

 

T-29 Thursday 210 Showings 28 +28 33001

 

T-30 Friday 214 Showings 48 +48 34163

 

T-31 Saturday 215 Showings 40 +40 34290

MI: Dead Reckoning Part 1 Emagine Entertainment

T-25 Monday 4 Showings 95 +41 997
T-26 Tuesday 160 Showings 284 +120 25302
0.907 Indiana Jones Day 2

 

T-27 Wednesday 202 Showings 72 +28 31587

 

T-28 Thursday 210 Showings 37 +9 33001

 

T-29 Friday 214 Showings 80 +32 34163
0.800 Indiana Jones Day 2

 

T-30 Saturday 215 Showings 56 +16 34290
0.903 Indiana Jones Day 2
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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 6/14/2023 at 3:21 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Oppenheimer Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 307 804 38.18%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 107 563 19.01%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
729 16 7876 9.26% 13 41

Oppenheimer Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 308 804 38.31%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 111 563 19.72%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
741 12 7876 9.41% 13 41
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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 6/14/2023 at 3:22 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Oppenheimer Alamo Drafthouse

T-36 Thursday 80 Showings 1938 +91 12116 ATP: 18.15

 

T-37 Friday 123 Showings 1645 +103 18750 ATP: 17.25

 

T-38 Saturday 117 Showings 1958 +101 18012 ATP: 18.12

 

T-39 Sunday 112 Showings 981 +52 17830 ATP: 18.20

Oppenheimer Alamo Drafthouse

T-35 Thursday 79 Showings 2001 +63 12116 ATP: 18.09

 

T-36 Friday 123 Showings 1734 +89 18750 ATP: 17.16

 

T-37 Saturday 117 Showings 2074 +116 18012 ATP: 18.00

 

T-38 Sunday 112 Showings 1025 +44 17830 ATP: 18.20
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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 6/14/2023 at 3:23 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Oppenheimer Emagine Entertainment

T-36 Thursday 76 Showings 318 +9 12597

 

T-37 Friday 132 Showings 157 +12 20124

 

T-38 Saturday 132 Showings 103 +6 20125

 

T-39 Sunday 130 Showings 27 +3 19893

Oppenheimer Emagine Entertainment

T-35 Thursday 76 Showings 338 +20 12597

 

T-36 Friday 135 Showings 176 +19 20535

 

T-37 Saturday 135 Showings 110 +7 20536

 

T-38 Sunday 133 Showings 30 +3 20307
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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Blackening T-0 Jax 5 13 30 61 1,060 5.75%
    Phx 7 16 4 38 1,646 2.31%
    Ral 7 17 10 26 1,032 2.52%
  Total   19 46 44 125 3,738 3.34%
Elemental T-0 Jax 5 40 42 182 4,849 3.75%
    Phx 7 49 97 279 5,897 4.73%
    Ral 8 42 51 209 4,896 4.27%
  Total   20 131 190 670 15,642 4.28%
Flash T-0 Jax 6 70 306 1,192 10,530 11.32%
    Phx 7 59 245 1,303 9,670 13.47%
    Ral 8 72 281 1,111 9,387 11.84%
  Total   21 201 832 3,606 29,587 12.19%

 

Flash T-0 comps

 - Shang-Chi - 1.197x (10.54m)

 - Shazam 2 - 2.87x (9.75m)

 - Ghostbusters - 2.01x (8.35m)

 - F9 - 1.18x (8.38m)

 - Eternals - .87x (8.26m)

 - Black Adam - 1.286x (9.77m)

 - Morbius - 1.609x (9.17m)

 

Size adjusted average - 8.96m

New model projection - 9.15m 

Chart prediction - 10m

 

Blackening T-0 comps

 - Escape Room 2 - .506x (607k)

 - Men - .828x (350k)

 - Firestarter - .845x (317k)

 - Night House - 3.125x (812k)

 - Smile - .622x (1.06m)

 - Boogeyman - .625x (749k)

 - Forever Purge - .563x (750k)

 - Popes Exorcist - .616x (523k)

 - X - .561x (247k)

 

Size adjusted average - 559k

New model projection (minus outliers) - 640k

 

Elemental T-0 comps

 - Lightyear - .389x (1.91m)

 - Strange World - 3.564x (2.85m) 

 - Encanto (Tues) - 1.482x (2.22m)

 - Paws of Fury - 5.04x (2.54m)

 - Boss Baby 2 - 2.587x (3.39m)

 - Super Pets - 1.46x (3.21m)

 - Bad Guys - 3.088x (3.55m)

 

Size adjusted average - 2.45m

New model projection - 2.69m

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Blackening 1-Hr Jax 5 13 33 94 1,060 8.87%
    Phx 7 16 22 60 1,646 3.65%
    Ral 7 17 67 93 1,032 9.01%
  Total   19 46 122 247 3,738 6.61%
Elemental 1-Hr Jax 5 40 164 346 4,849 7.14%
    Phx 7 50 111 390 5,945 6.56%
    Ral 8 42 148 357 4,896 7.29%
  Total   20 132 423 1,093 15,690 6.97%
Flash 1-Hr Jax 6 70 550 1,742 10,530 16.54%
    Phx 7 60 293 1,596 9,710 16.44%
    Ral 8 72 415 1,526 9,387 16.26%
  Total   21 202 1,258 4,864 29,627 16.42%

 

Flash T-1 hr comps

 - Shang-Chi - 1.187x (10.44m)

 - Shazam 2 - missed

 - Ghostbusters - 2.04x (8.47m)

 - F9 - 1.27x (9m)

 - Eternals - .905x (8.6m)

 - Black Adam - 1.28x (9.73m)

 - Morbius - 1.649x (9.4m)

All CBM - 8.8m

All 3pm - 9.54m

All movies - 10.36m

 

Size adjusted average - 9.39m

New model projection - 9.42m 

Final prediction - 9.4m

 

Blackening T-1 hr comps (Excluding EA)

 - Escape Room 2 - .544x (653k)

 - Men - 1.056x (447k)

 - Firestarter - 1.098x (412k)

 - Night House - missed

 - Smile - .568x (965k)

 - Boogeyman - .619x (619k)

 - Forever Purge - .614x (817k)

 - Popes Exorcist - .81x (688k)

 - X - .72x (317k)

All horror - 595k

All R movies - 568k

All movies - 526k

 

Size adjusted average - 443k

New model projection (minus outliers) - 680k

Final prediction - 600k

 

Elemental T-1 hr comps

 - Lightyear - .440x (2.16m)

 - Strange World - 3.322x (2.66m) 

 - Encanto (Tues) - 1.546x (2.32m)

 - Paws of Fury - 4.732x (2.39m)

 - Boss Baby 2 - 2.397x (3.14m)

 - Super Pets - 1.4x (3.07m)

 - Bad Guys - 2.946x (3.39m)

All animated - 2.59m

All PG - 2.27m

All 3pm - 2.14m

All movies - 2.33m

 

Size adjusted average - 2.54m

New model projection - 2.6m

Final prediction - 2.6m

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Mulder Global Phenomenon

Mulder

Posted
Posted
Just now, XXRkham Asylum said:

Seems like the general consensus for Flash previews is in the 9-9.5 range. I imagine the IM is in the 5.7-6.7 range. Final OW estimate; 52-64M.

I think we could see a 7 personally like Rise of The Beasts. It's not super likely but it's possible, so I think high 60s is the ceiling.

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YM! Global Phenomenon

YM!

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Sales are picking up nicely near me. I can still see it hitting the $70-80M projections for the weekend and avoiding an *apocalypse* scenario.

 

Elemental's doing solidly as well.

How solidly is solid for Elemental?

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