The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[GOGODanca]

50m is a stretch, the orlando numbers i believe are pointing to a 2.5m range and that should be the best market by far and even an original kids movie is not pulling a 20x IM in summer

[WorkingonaName]

too late already posted to r/boxoffice. 

[ringedmortality]

Walk ups for Elemental are probably gonna end up being weaker 

[Koni]

21 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

too late already posted to r/boxoffice. 

That sub went dark to protest Reddit's API changes, so there won't be much in the way of reactions there. 

...though this means this forum might be seeing a temporary influx of new users, at least for the next few days.

[ringedmortality]

1 minute ago, Koni said:

...though this means this forum might be seeing a temporary influx of new users, at least for the next few days.

Not to get too off topic, but I’m on a different forum where they’ve been getting a lot of “Reddit refugees” and it’s basically temporarily unusable now. Used to be mostly high quality posts and comments and now it’s just so… reddity. So prepare for that.

[Bob Train]

55 minutes ago, Mulder said:

You realize this is the tracking thread right? People aren't making it up out of no where, it's from current tracking.

Presales allow for box office to be predicted very accurately, but walkups can't be predicted. And in my opinion, walkups will be exceptionally poor for a movie like Elemental.

[Austin]

5 hours ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

I’d say like a 15% chance to go 54 or below vs .01% for 100M

I find it so funny when you are talking about The Flash for some reason.

[JustLurking]

2 hours ago, Mulder said:

You realize this is the tracking thread right? People aren't making it up out of no where, it's from current tracking.

...but no tracker said it's going to open to 50M?

[vafrow]

On 6/10/2023 at 5:46 AM, vafrow said:

 

T-6 Thursday preview Flash Update

 

Milton, Ontario

 

I realize I'm tracking a single theatre, and, small samples produce anomalies, but, Flash has not sold a single ticket at my theatre since the review embargo. It's still at 30.

 

This is when it's comps were all starting to show movement, so, it's currently at:

 

1.071X Fast X for $8.0M

1.500x T:ROTB for $11.4M

0.248x ATSV for $4.3M

 

Both ATSV and Fast X were accelerating in the final stretch, so Flash should be growing at 10-20% per day to keep up right now. Rise of the Beasts was slower, but had the tremendous walk ups. It also stalled for a few days around this stretch, but, it had the late review drop as well. 

 

T-4 Flash Thursday preview update

Milton, ON

 

Good news is that there's actual ticket sales in this update. And they seem to mainly keep pace with comps averaging 12.5% per day, which is adequate for this period. They just don't make up ground.

 

0.904x of Fast X for $6.8M

1.727x of ROTB for $13.1M

0.262x of ATSV for $4.5M

 

I didn't properly track GOTG3, but, I did track it's T-1 and final sales. To get a sense of what's needed, to reach a $10M comp against that film by T-1 then it would need 41% daily growth for the test of the week.

[Porthos]

21 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Elemental Sacto Report  [T-5]

383/9492 (4.03% sold) [+34 tickets]

0.41363x GBA            at T-5     [1.87m]

0.32212x Sonic 2      at T-5      [2.01m]

0.33189x Minions 2  at T-5      [3.57m]

0.50329x Nope         at T-5      [3.22m]

0.67311x Shazam 2  at T-5       [2.29m]

 

Quick and Dirty Elemental Sacto Report  [T-4]

434/9492 (4.57% sold) [+51 tickets]

0.43618x GBA            at T-4     [1.96m]

0.31888x Sonic 2      at T-4      [1.99m]

0.30628x Minions 2  at T-4      [3.29m]

0.45397x Nope         at T-4      [2.91m]

0.70227x Shazam 2  at T-4      [2.39m]

[Porthos]

21 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Oppenheimer Sacto Report [T-40]

512/7572 [6.76% sold] [+36 tickets] [50 showings]

70mm:              286/776   [+17 tickets] [55.86% of all tickets sold]

All other PLF:   186/3558 [+14 tickets] [36.33% of all tickets sold]

Standard:         40/3238   [+5 tickets]      [7.81% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Gee... I wonder if there is a slight possibility of Sacto over-performing for some reason.

 

Oppenheimer Sacto Report [T-39]

527/7572 [6.96% sold] [+15 tickets] [50 showings]

70mm:              288/776   [+2 tickets] [54.65% of all tickets sold]

All other PLF:   194/3558 [+8 tickets] [36.81% of all tickets sold]

Standard:         45/3238   [+5 tickets]      [8.54% of all tickets sold]

 

 

[Porthos]

21 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-19 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	124	18498	19521	1023	5.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

48

 

T-19 Comps:

	%		Sold T-19	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	49.49		86	2067		0/184	22740/24807	8.33%		10966	9.33%		8.91m
FX	126.14		11	811		0/182	26899/27710	2.93%		8363	12.23%		9.46m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     192/6084  [3.16% sold]
Matinee:    61/1728  [3.53% | 5.96% of all tickets sold]

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-18 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	124	18463	19521	1058	5.42%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

35

 

T-18 Comps:

	%		Sold T-18	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	48.85		99	2166		0/184	22643/24809	8.73%		10966	9.65%		8.79m
FX	126.10		28	839		0/182	26871/27710	3.03%		4122	25.67%		9.46m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     205/6084  [3.37% sold]
Matinee:    65/1728  [3.76% | 6.14% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

21 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	178	23122	25145	2023	8.05%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

135

 

T-5 Comps:

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	35.79		251	5653		0/297	31137/36790	15.37%		11757	17.21%		7.73m
BA	121.14		149	1670		0/169	22641/24311	6.87%		4494	45.02%		9.21m
Shazam 2	355.54		36	569		0/108	16542/17111	3.33%		1663	121.65%		12.09m
Wick 4	98.01		166	2064		0/118	14480/16544	12.48%		5448	37.13%		8.72m
AtSV	56.62		278	3573		0/142	18901/22474	15.90%		9744	20.76%		9.82m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     344/5286  [6.51% sold]
Matinee:    46/2140  [2.15% | 2.27% of all tickets sold]

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	178	22946	25142	2196	8.73%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

173

 

T-4 Comps:

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	36.47		368	6021		0/297	30769/36790	16.37%		11757	18.68%		7.88m
BA	116.44		216	1886		0/169	22425/24311	7.76%		4494	48.87%		8.85m
Shazam 2	355.34		49	618		0/110	16577/17195	3.59%		1663	132.05%		12.08m
Wick 4	95.27		241	2305		0/119	14274/16579	13.90%		5448	40.31%		8.48m
AtSV	55.69		370	3943		0/142	18531/22474	17.54%		9744	22.54%		9.66m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     380/5286  [7.19% sold]
Matinee:    64/2140  [2.99% | 2.91% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

I almost posted the "Prepare the world for bad news" gif, but that would have been over-dramatic.  Plus the sample recovered somewhat on the back two-fifths (was pacing to be about a 130-140 day for a while).

 

As it is though, no Sunday breakout whatsoever. Any other conclusions, I'll leave for y'all to draw.

[YSLDC]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	178	22946	25142	2196	8.73%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

173

 

T-4 Comps:

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	36.47		368	6021		0/297	30769/36790	16.37%		11757	18.68%		7.88m
BA	116.44		216	1886		0/169	22425/24311	7.76%		4494	48.87%		8.85m
Shazam 2	355.34		49	618		0/110	16577/17195	3.59%		1663	132.05%		12.08m
Wick 4	95.27		241	2305		0/119	14274/16579	13.90%		5448	40.31%		8.48m
AtSV	55.69		370	3943		0/142	18531/22474	17.54%		9744	22.54%		9.66m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     380/5286  [7.19% sold]
Matinee:    64/2140  [2.99% | 2.91% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

I almost posted the "Prepare the world for bad news" gif, but that would have been over-dramatic.  Plus the sample recovered somewhat on the back two-fifths (was pacing to be about a 130-140 day for a while).

 

As it is though, no Sunday breakout whatsoever. Any other conclusions, I'll leave for y'all to draw.

 

I honestly cannot comprehend this. How is it selling fewer tickets than Black Adam T-4? THE FLASH, a Justice League character. 

[21C]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	178	22946	25142	2196	8.73%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

173

 

T-4 Comps:

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	36.47		368	6021		0/297	30769/36790	16.37%		11757	18.68%		7.88m
BA	116.44		216	1886		0/169	22425/24311	7.76%		4494	48.87%		8.85m
Shazam 2	355.34		49	618		0/110	16577/17195	3.59%		1663	132.05%		12.08m
Wick 4	95.27		241	2305		0/119	14274/16579	13.90%		5448	40.31%		8.48m
AtSV	55.69		370	3943		0/142	18531/22474	17.54%		9744	22.54%		9.66m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     380/5286  [7.19% sold]
Matinee:    64/2140  [2.99% | 2.91% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

I almost posted the "Prepare the world for bad news" gif, but that would have been over-dramatic.  Plus the sample recovered somewhat on the back two-fifths (was pacing to be about a 130-140 day for a while).

 

As it is though, no Sunday breakout whatsoever. Any other conclusions, I'll leave for y'all to draw.

So... it's looking at around 9 million in pre-sales based on this data? Am I reading this correctly? 

[Joyous Legion]

On 6/10/2023 at 3:38 AM, Into the Legion-Verse said:

Still getting some sheets back end up to do this more conveniently for each region each day, but here’s the last few days for my “size-adjusted avg comp” for Sacto:

T-12 9.16M

T-11 9.28M

T-10 9.3M

T-9 9.55M

T-8 9.6M

T-7 9.4M

T-6 9.5M  

T-5 9.45M

T-4 9.35M

 

So today was basically fine under that view — in fact things have been pretty stable, which is the hope. 
 

Fwiw, without Shazam (the biggest size outlier):

T-12 9.61M

T-11 9.64M

T-10 9.58M

T-9 9.72M

T-8 9.71M

T-7 9.31M

T-6 9.3M

T-5 9.14M

T-4 8.85M

New in bold 

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

Because audience clearly don't care about THE FLASH a Justice League character.

 

And audience wouldn't care about Black Adam too, but it had Star Power.

 

Basically DC is a damaged brand, they should stop making DC Universe happen and focus on standalone stuff.

Or you know there's an incoming reboot that's been announced, the star's antics have been all over the internet for a while, the trailers are unappealing etc. You've said this like 500 times man, give it a rest.

 

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	178	22946	25142	2196	8.73%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

173

 

T-4 Comps:

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	36.47		368	6021		0/297	30769/36790	16.37%		11757	18.68%		7.88m
BA	116.44		216	1886		0/169	22425/24311	7.76%		4494	48.87%		8.85m
Shazam 2	355.34		49	618		0/110	16577/17195	3.59%		1663	132.05%		12.08m
Wick 4	95.27		241	2305		0/119	14274/16579	13.90%		5448	40.31%		8.48m
AtSV	55.69		370	3943		0/142	18531/22474	17.54%		9744	22.54%		9.66m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     380/5286  [7.19% sold]
Matinee:    64/2140  [2.99% | 2.91% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

I almost posted the "Prepare the world for bad news" gif, but that would have been over-dramatic.  Plus the sample recovered somewhat on the back two-fifths (was pacing to be about a 130-140 day for a while).

 

As it is though, no Sunday breakout whatsoever. Any other conclusions, I'll leave for y'all to draw.

Well....it's not the Sunday disaster but it's not the Sunday breakthrough. 8-10 sounds about right previews wise and then like 55-75 sounds about right for the OW.

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, YSLDC said:

 

I honestly cannot comprehend this. How is it selling fewer tickets than Black Adam T-4? THE FLASH, a Justice League character. 

 

That was 

 

1] Before the announcement of the coming (soft) reset of the DCEU

 

and

 

2] News of Henry Cavill's cameo possibly boosting sales.  Though not nearly as much as WB probably wanted.

 

===

 

Look, I went into detail about this over in the WB thread already, and it really is OFF TOPIC here so I won't go into great detail about it, but while there's tons of reasons for this, the #1 with a bullet for me is the looming reset (and a strong second being the situation surrounding Ezra Miller which at the very least means the studio has its hands somewhat tied when it comes to PR rollout).

 

Everything else is commentary.

 

[21C]

If I was James Gunn I'd be kinda worried about the fact that not even putting Batman in a movie (a fan-beloved Batman, on top of that) and in all the marketing guarantees a 90+ million opening.  Also in hindsight both Matt Reeves/Robert Pattinson and... yeah, The Rock deserve more credit for making their films open to the highs they did. 

There's still a road for The Flash to at least get to 80 million but it's  not mega likely.

13 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

That was 

 

1] Before the announcement of the coming (soft) reset of the DCEU

 

and

 

2] News of Henry Cavill's cameo possibly boosting sales.  Though not nearly as much as WB probably wanted.

 

===

 

Look, I went into detail about this over in the WB thread already, and it really is OFF TOPIC here so I won't go into great detail about it, but while there's tons of reasons for this, the #1 with a bullet for me is the looming reset (and a strong second being the situation surrounding Ezra Miller which at the very least means the studio has its hands somewhat tied when it comes to PR rollout).

 

Everything else is commentary.

 

I reaaally don't think you can put that much blame on the looming reset though. Especially not for numbers these low. I get the instinct, but if the film itself looked more appealing to audiences there's reason to believe it could've offset it; reboot or not, the fact people don't seem interested in the movie itself is a huge problem, as it was for Shazam 2.  

It's all extremely subjective, and I've talked quite a bit about it in The Flash thread as well, but the fact that almost every bit of marketing that has come out of this movie got widespread criticism or some degree of mockery on Twitter, Reddit and other social medias does lead me to believe that maybe it's just as simple as the fact that audiences aren't interested on how the film looks or what it's presenting. Sometimes it really is just as simple as "People don't think the film looks good". 

Edited June 12, 2023 by 21C

[Joyous Legion]

Sacramento has looked 8.5-10ish since over a week ago. Obviously I understand people hoping for that to increase, but at the same time there was no particular reason to expect it to increase. It will probably underindex a little but if you look at all the other data that’s been posted 10 would be a clearly above median outcome from here.