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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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Posted by Shawn Robbins,

PSA:   As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum.   Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box o
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Posted by XXR & Friends,

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban.    Anyone else continues, it's points. 

We're all tired of the non-tracking related thread derailments. This is your fair warning.

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Jurassic World Dominion Megaplex

 

T-22 Thursday(91 showings): 1080(+31)/26260

0.711x Black Widow T-22 (9.39M)

 

T-23 Friday(150 showings): 985(+19)/43519

1.17x Black Widow T-23 (30.77M)

 

T-24 Saturday(158 showings): 679(+11)/45546

 

T-25 Sunday(144 showings): 150(+9)/41066

Jurassic World Dominion Megaplex

 

T-21 Thursday(91 showings): 1111(+31)/26260

1.48x Eternals T-21 (14.04M)

0.715x Black Widow T-21 (9.44M)

 

T-22 Friday(150 showings): 1072(+87)/43519

3.19x Eternals T-22 (68.07M)

1.25x Black Widow T-22 (32.94M)

 

T-23 Saturday(158 showings): 698(+19)/45546

3.47x Eternals T-23 (83.70M)

 

T-24 Sunday(144 showings): 186(+36)/41066

2.78x Eternals T-24 (45.40M)

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Jurassic World Dominion Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-22 Thursday(114 showings): 3574(+122)/17772 ATP: $14.31

 

T-23 Friday(172 showings): 2915(+123)/27860 ATP: $14.56

 

T-24 Saturday(180 showings): 2996(+111)/29291 ATP: $13.52

 

T-25 Sunday(148 showings): 1177(+19)/24294 ATP: $12.97

Jurassic World Dominion Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-21 Thursday(114 showings): 3569(-5)/17051 ATP: $14.33

 

T-22 Friday(172 showings): 2992(+77)/27860 ATP: $14.61

 

T-23 Saturday(180 showings): 3071(+75)/29291 ATP: $13.54

 

T-24 Sunday(148 showings): 1235(+58)/24294 ATP: $13.02

 

Looks like some Thursday showings were downsized and along with that some sold seats lost.

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Tinalera Box Office Gold

Tinalera

Posted
Posted

Jurassic Dominion

Toronto Ontario

Thurs June 9 (taken May 19)

10 theatres

45 shows

 

Total Sold 395 (previous 232)

Total Remaining 11742

Total Seats 12137 (+3)

No Sellouts 

Percentage 3.25 (previous 1.91)

 

JD moving up a little bit more, maybe a bit slower than I was expecting, but again a movie 3 weeks away with other shows currently showing and Top Gun coming up on the radar maybe not a lot of decision making yet.

 

I am pondering adding a 2nd geographic location for seating in the London area, JD is still early enough I could add it and when adding I would have Toronto and London Areas as separate counts. Not entirely positive yet, haven't decided if Im up for that type of fun yet....:ouch::stretcher:

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Tinalera Box Office Gold

Tinalera

Posted
Posted (edited)

Top Gun Maverick

Toronto Ontario 

Thurs May 26 (taken May 19)

Total theatres 10

Total shows 95(up from 60)

 

Total sold 926 (up from 661)

Total remaining 24430

Total seats 25356 (up from 16776)

Percentage 3.65 (Down from 3.93)

 

More shows, more seats added, 1 week away Top Gun hovering around 3-4 percent still, not seeing a huge influx in increased sales-the movie will do well here I think, just think it will be more of a weekend walk up type film than advance sales. Starting to possibly maybe lean towards thinking it might not do as well in Canada as previous Top Gun did when numbers are done (adjusting for inflation) based on nothing except my gut and speculation-will do well in US, esp on Memorial day weekend.,

Edited by Tinalera
added updated show count
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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Top Gun Maverick Denver Preview Showings

Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total 457 2574 17.75%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 732 2984 24.53%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
2432 137 29062 8.37% 15 174

 

AMCs sold 1826
Cinemarks sold 160
Regals sold 372
Harkins sold 74

 

Tuesday

Total 1269            71 2831

Wednesday

Total 207             0 276

Overall

Grand Total 3908           208 32169

 

0.458x Doctor Strange 2 T-8 (16.47M)

0.276x NWH T-8 (13.82M)

3.19x Dune T-8 (16.27M)

Top Gun Maverick Denver Preview Showings

Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total 476 2574 18.49%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 795 2984 26.64%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
2651 219 29062 9.12% 15 174

 

AMCs sold 1946
Cinemarks sold 182
Regals sold 440
Harkins sold 83

 

Tuesday

Total 1370       101 2831

Wednesday

Total 209         2 276

Overall

Grand Total 4230       322 32169

 

0.478x Doctor Strange 2 T-7 (17.22M)

0.983x Batman T-7 (21.22M)

0.293x NWH T-7 (14.63M)

3.23x Dune T-7 (16.49M)

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Top Gun Maverick Megaplex

 

T-6 Tuesday(5 showings): 1590(+143)/2742

T-8 Thursday(134 showings): 3107(+149)/35122

 

Total Previews: 4697(+292)/37864

0.495x Doctor Strange 2 T-8 (17.81M)

0.238x NWH T-8 (11.92M)

2.63x Dune T-8 (13.40M)

 

T-9 Friday(206 showings): 4434(+255)/54463

0.777x Doctor Strange 2 T-9 (42.53M)

0.302x NWH T-9 (21.74M)

2.21x Dune T-9 (27.38M)

 

T-10 Saturday(212 showings): 3250(+289)/56663

0.956x Doctor Strange 2 T-10 (55.29M)

0.386x NWH T-10 (28.53M)

2.90x Dune T-10 (39.78M)

 

T-11 Sunday(198 showings): 820(+77)/53645

0.965x Doctor Strange 2 T-11 (37.52M)

0.412x NWH T-11 (26.42M)

2.55x Dune T-11 (24.98M)

Top Gun Maverick Megaplex

 

T-5 Tuesday(5 showings): 1676(+86)/2742

T-7 Thursday(134 showings): 3387(+280)/35122

 

Total Previews: 5063(+366)/37864

0.510x Doctor Strange 2 T-7 (18.34M)

0.992x Batman T-7 (21.43M)

0.251x NWH T-7 (12.57M)

2.69x Dune T-7 (13.71M)

 

T-8 Friday(206 showings): 4818(+384)/54463

0.789x Doctor Strange 2 T-8 (43.18M)

0.318x NWH T-8 (22.85M)

2.17x Dune T-8 (26.92M)

 

T-9 Saturday(212 showings): 3500(+250)/56663

0.956x Doctor Strange 2 T-9 (56.14M)

0.393x NWH T-9 (29.07M)

2.84x Dune T-9 (39.01M)

 

T-10 Sunday(200 showings): 869(+49)/54035

0.919x Doctor Strange 2 T-10 (35.72M)

0.408x NWH T-10 (26.18M)

2.59x Dune T-10 (25.29M)

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 5/18/2022 at 4:40 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Top Gun Maverick Drafthouse

 

T-6 Tuesday(6 showings): 983/1420 ATP: $20.41

T-7 Wednesday(27 showings): 3027/4344 ATP: $15.27

T-8 Thursday(136 showings): 4720(+360)/21898 ATP: $14.89

 

Total Previews: 8730/27662

0.476x Doctor Strange 2 T-8 (17.14M)

0.335x NWH T-8 (16.77M)

 

T-9 Friday(156 showings): 5331(+337)/26053 ATP: $14.68

0.320x Doctor Strange 2 T-9 (17.53M)

0.228x NWH T-9 (16.41M)

 

T-10 Saturday(163 showings): 4885(+266)/27214 ATP: $13.87

0.281x Doctor Strange 2 T-10 (16.24M)

0.214x NWH T-10 (15.84M)

 

T-11 Sunday(143 showings): 2539(+172)/23991 ATP: $13.29

0.285x Doctor Strange 2 T-11 (11.07M)

0.213x NWH T-11 (13.68M)

 

After @katnisscinnaplex pinged me about the Drafthouse Bob's Burger EA showings, I realized that I had been neglecting to check for those here. Sure enough, there are Top Gun EA showings and I missed the ones for Batman. So for the Batman Previews comp, I'll only compare Top Gun Thursday to it. 

Top Gun Maverick Drafthouse

 

T-5 Tuesday(6 showings): 1011(+28)/1420 ATP: $20.43

T-6 Wednesday(27 showings): 3027(+0)/4344 ATP: $15.27

T-7 Thursday(136 showings): 5271(+551)/21898 ATP: $14.92

 

Total Previews: 9309(+579)/27662

0.481x Doctor Strange 2 T-7 (17.30M)

0.484x Batman T-7 (10.45M)

0.352x NWH T-7 (17.62M)

 

T-8 Friday(156 showings): 5891(+560)/26053 ATP: $14.71

0.339x Doctor Strange 2 T-8 (18.52M)

0.545x Batman T-8 (19.08M)

0.247x NWH T-8 (17.73M)

 

T-9 Saturday(163 showings): 5445(+560)/27214 ATP: $13.87

0.299x Doctor Strange 2 T-9 (17.30M)

0.505x Batman T-9 (21.85M)

0.231x NWH T-9 (17.08M)

 

T-10 Sunday(143 showings): 2933(+394)/23991 ATP: $13.30

0.309x Doctor Strange 2 T-10 (12.01M)

0.603x Batman T-10 (20.57M)

0.233x NWH T-10 (14.98M)

Edited by Inceptionzq
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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Downton 2 T-0 Jax 6 15 17 198 1,981 9.99%
    Phx 6 16 13 113 2,088 5.41%
    Ral 8 17 36 286 1,759 16.26%
  Total   20 48 66 597 5,828 10.24%
Men T-0 Jax 4 7 3 34 714 4.76%
    Phx 5 10 14 83 1,082 7.67%
    Ral 7 11 5 34 1,029 3.30%
  Total   16 28 22 151 2,825 5.35%

 

 

Downton T-0 comps

 - No Time to Die - .265x (1.38m)

 - House of Gucci - 1.31x (1.71m)

 - Sonic 2 - .34x (1.7m)

 - Lost City  - .87x (2.18m)

 - Ghostbusters - .33x (1.38m)

 

Not surprised to see the comps dropping.  This seemed pretty frontloaded for pre-sales, especially in my areas.  Right now I would predict 1.5m for Thursday shows, but we'll see what the T-1 hr update brings.

 

Men T-0 comps

 - X - .68x (298k)

 - Resident Evil - .5x (464k)

 - Night House - 3.78x (981k)

 - Firestarter - 1.02x (383k)

 

Comps falling for this one too.  I'd put it at 400k currently.

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Downton 2 1-Hr Jax 6 17 32 230 2,177 10.56%
    Phx 6 16 25 138 2,088 6.61%
    Ral 8 18 58 344 1,807 19.04%
  Total   20 51 115 712 6,072 11.73%
Men 1-Hr Jax 4 7 15 49 714 6.86%
    Phx 5 10 36 119 1,082 11.00%
    Ral 7 11 32 66 1,029 6.41%
  Total   16 28 83 234 2,825 8.28%

 

Downton T-1 hr comps

 - No Time to Die - .261x (1.36m)

 - House of Gucci - 1.063x (1.38m)

 - Sonic 2 - Missed

 - Lost City  - .71x (1.77m)

 - Ghostbusters - .299x (1.24m)

 - All PG movies - 1.92m

 - All 7pm preview movies - 1.43m

 - All drama movies - 1.45m

 - All movies - 1.46m

 

Prediction based on comps: 1.3m Thursday (excl EA)

 

Men T-1 hr comps

 - X - .682x (300k)

 - Resident Evil - .62x (580k)

 - Night House - 2.52x (654k)

 - Firestarter - 1.04x (390k)

 - All R movies - 458k

 - All 7pm preview movies - 469k

 - All horror movies - 531k

 - All movies - 479k

 

Prediction based on comps: 450k

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EmpireCity Blockbuster

EmpireCity

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

https://m.the-numbers.com/news/251920830-2022-market-prediction-multiverse-movie-movements-reduce-annual-prediction-to-6-5-billion

 

Holy fucking shit, if the people that wrote that are getting paid in any way for that analysis, they should be immediately fired.  

 

$14m opening for Nope?  $10m for Bullet Train?  $13m for Elvis?  $110m openings for Black Panther and Avatar but only $300m totals?  

 

What moron wrote this??

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Holy fucking shit, if the people that wrote that are getting paid in any way for that analysis, they should be immediately fired.  

 

$14m opening for Nope?  $10m for Bullet Train?  $13m for Elvis?  $110m openings for Black Panther and Avatar but only $300m totals?  

 

What moron wrote this??

Avatar is just 2022 gross. Still its very low. 

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EmpireCity Blockbuster

EmpireCity

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Avatar is just 2022 gross. Still its very low. 

 

I don't think so, it is the exact same gross their "model" is kicking out for Thor and Black Panther.  

 

Their model is dogshit.  

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Alex SciChannel Box Office Gold

Alex SciChannel

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Holy fucking shit, if the people that wrote that are getting paid in any way for that analysis, they should be immediately fired.  

 

$14m opening for Nope?  $10m for Bullet Train?  $13m for Elvis?  $110m openings for Black Panther and Avatar but only $300m totals?  

 

What moron wrote this??

Email them bruce.nash@the-numbers.com

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Alex SciChannel Box Office Gold

Alex SciChannel

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:
Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Downton 2 1-Hr Jax 6 17 32 230 2,177 10.56%
    Phx 6 16 25 138 2,088 6.61%
    Ral 8 18 58 344 1,807 19.04%
  Total   20 51 115 712 6,072 11.73%
Men 1-Hr Jax 4 7 15 49 714 6.86%
    Phx 5 10 36 119 1,082 11.00%
    Ral 7 11 32 66 1,029 6.41%
  Total   16 28 83 234 2,825 8.28%

 

Downton T-1 hr comps

 - No Time to Die - .261x (1.36m)

 - House of Gucci - 1.063x (1.38m)

 - Sonic 2 - Missed

 - Lost City  - .71x (1.77m)

 - Ghostbusters - .299x (1.24m)

 - All PG movies - 1.92m

 - All 7pm preview movies - 1.43m

 - All drama movies - 1.45m

 - All movies - 1.46m

 

Prediction based on comps: 1.3m Thursday (excl EA)

 

Men T-1 hr comps

 - X - .682x (300k)

 - Resident Evil - .62x (580k)

 - Night House - 2.52x (654k)

 - Firestarter - 1.04x (390k)

 - All R movies - 458k

 - All 7pm preview movies - 469k

 - All horror movies - 531k

 - All movies - 479k

 

Prediction based on comps: 450k

Looking actually pretty good for Downton Abbey. What will the total previews be, EA included?

Edited by Alex SciChannel
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