The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

7 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

20-23 for Elvis? Why do you say this? None of the tracking here seems to indicate that. It looks above Lost City here. That would be a disaster and lower than Rocketman's OW despite Dolby and price inflation

None of what tracking? The only numbers I’ve seen are Katniss’ and that looks like ~$2M or so in previews. Admittedly, Rocketman did 14.3x previews in 2019 but 2022 isn’t 2019. I expect 11-12x. If it looks like previews is going over $2.5M then I’ll adjust my expectations.

[ThomasNicole]

Yeah, i could be reading all wrong but the presales looks good to me and probably +30M OW unless it crumbles. 

 

Even Black Phone looks decent, i wouldn't rile out 20M if it gets a good multi.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Just now, ZurgXXR said:

None of what tracking? The only numbers I’ve seen are Katniss’ and that looks like ~$2M or so in previews. Admittedly, Rocketman did 14.3x previews in 2019 but 2022 isn’t 2019. I expect 11-12x. If it looks like previews is going over $2.5M then I’ll adjust my expectations.

Here it's pacing well above Lost City. And BOP has it opening at least at 31, so I assume they have access to some kind of numbers as well

[charlie Jatinder]

45 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

 

 

 

Something about pots and kettles

(if I had guessed from the data in here I would've been way off as well)

Well I am not the one who is expert in black magic. I am mere mortal.

 

Though $5.5M is good call though IMO. 

 

[ZackM]

Final Lightyear numbers for Alpha previews

 

 

Lightyear Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: D0 Final
	Final Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	115	546	247
Seats Added	0	12,958	71,904	26,039
Seats Sold	45,577	9,619	5,875	5,856
6/16/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	422	3,946	93,647	606,513	15.44%
ATP
$15.47

 

 

 

Alpha - Lightyear - Eastern Time Zone			Alpha - Lightyear - Central Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales		Showtimes	Sales
3:00-3:59	8,524		3:00-3:59	5,716
4:00-4:59	3,899		4:00-4:59	2,024
5:00-5:59	2,855		5:00-5:59	2,540
6:00-6:59	6,873		6:00-6:59	4,020
7:00-7:59	5,566		7:00-7:59	3,836
8:00-8:59	3,760		8:00-8:59	2,749
9:00-9:59	2,377		9:00-9:59	1,447
10:00-10:59	844		10:00-10:59	528
11:00-11:59	97		11:00-11:59	12
12:00+	0		12:00+	0
Alpha - Lightyear - Mountain Time Zone			Alpha - Lightyear - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales		Showtimes	Sales
3:00-3:59	1,668		3:00-3:59	6,343
4:00-4:59	689		4:00-4:59	2,904
5:00-5:59	597		5:00-5:59	2,220
6:00-6:59	1,241		6:00-6:59	4,459
7:00-7:59	1,065		7:00-7:59	5,394
8:00-8:59	664		8:00-8:59	3,179
9:00-9:59	451		9:00-9:59	2,952
10:00-10:59	174		10:00-10:59	1,717
11:00-11:59	0		11:00-11:59	263
12:00+	0		12:00+	0

 

 

Edited June 17, 2022 by ZackM

[katnisscinnaplex]

20 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Lightyear	1-Hr	Jax	6	78	243	717	10,445	6.86%
		Phx	7	78	173	945	11,709	8.07%
		Ral	8	52	354	821	5,180	15.85%
	Total		21	208	770	2,483	27,334	9.08%

 

Lightyear (Thu) T-1hr comps

 - Bad Guys - 6.69x (7.7m)

 - Encanto (Tue) - 3.51x (5.27m)

 - Sonic 2 - missed

 - Jungle Cruise - 2.25x (6.08m)

 - Free Guy - 2.86x (6.29m)

 - Sing 2 (OD) - missed

All PG movies - 4.88m

All animated movies - 6.22m

All 3pm previews - 4.94m

All movies - 4.92m

 

I hate that I missed the last Sonic update.  Walkups were pretty good; couldn't keep up with Bad Guys and Encanto with their total sales being much smaller (higher % increase).  My gut tells me to stick with 5.5m, but I feel like it could possibly reach 6m so I'll put my final prediction at 5.8m for true Thursday.  That would mean full previews of ~6.5m.

 

I tried reading through the weekend thread, but eh.  While most were high on tracking, part of that was due to the repeated calls of backloading and walkups.  I know I let that heavily influence my prediction and it shows.  Sometimes we miss and that's okay.  So I went back to the numbers.  Three of my group comps above pointed to a number under 5m for true Thursday (actual was likely around 4.6m + EA).  Beyond that, I wanted to look at comps that had a similar number of sales for a more representative list.  Here's what I found:

 

Movie

Previews

T-hr Sales

Comp

F9: The Fast Saga	7,100,000	3,836	$4,595,751
Fantastic Beasts 3	6,000,000	3,445	$4,324,528
Morbius	5,700,000	2,950	$4,797,661
Dune	5,100,000	2,750	$4,604,836
No Time to Die	5,200,000	2,731	$4,727,792
Halloween Kills	4,850,000	2,493	$4,830,546
Lightyear		2,483
Ghostbusters	4,150,000	2,384	$4,322,336
Jujutsu Kaisen: 0	2,880,000	2,004	$3,568,383
Suicide Squad	4,100,000	1,958	$5,199,336
Downton Abbey Total	1,800,000	1,470	$3,040,408*

 

When looking at this, I wouldn't say that Lightyear underperformed based on tracking, but more so our expectations.  I've always struggled with determining how much I let other factors influence my predictions, and I think this time I leaned too much that way.  I am encouraged by the numbers above though, because a more accurate prediction was right in front of me the whole time.

 

*I left Downton on here for transparency of including every number in the range, but I wouldn't use it for a comp for anything with the split days previews.*

[Porthos]

33 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Well I am not the one who is expert in black magic. I am mere mortal.

 

Though $5.5M is good call though IMO. 

 

 

Oh, I fully take my lumps here (I prepared the Laker miss shot gif in advance in fact), but I wouldn't say you called for $5.5m...

 

11 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Lightyear Harkins Final

 

Day	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Early Access	11	3,448	1,869	54.21%	$29,289	$15.67
Thursday	341	83,181	12,110	14.56%	$136,259	$11.25
Total	352	86,629	13,979	16.14%	$165,548	$11.84

 

Comps

0.405x Jurassic World: Dominion - $7.20M (THU alone $6.25M)

0.849x Eternals - $8.07M (THU alone $7M)

1.525x Sonic 2 (8 locs & THU only) - $7.75M 

 

Did better here than other places. THU only comps ranges from $6.25-7.75M. Adjusted for ATP will probably be 5-10% lower for JWD & Eternals comps. 

 

Based on Harkins data, can estimate rest chains, previews probably around $5.5-5.75M on THU.

 

 

as isn't that $5.5m-5.75m a Thursday only number?  If you count EA I'm pretty sure Harkins is right along side Sacto in the 

 

 

club. 

 

I mean, it wasn't just Sacto here.

 

(Full props, btw, to @Inceptionzq and @Eric Lightyear for basically nailing it this time 👍)

Edited June 17, 2022 by Porthos

[Inceptionzq]

21 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Lightyear Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-1 Friday(311 showings): 6249(+1424)/37706

1.04x Ghostbusters T-1 (12.68M)

 

Lightyear Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-0 Friday(311 showings): 9340(+3091)/37706

1.16x Ghostbusters T-0 (14.05M)

21 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Lightyear Megaplex

 

T-1 Friday(290 showings): 2404(+672)/66239

1.10x Ghostbusters T-1 (13.35M)

Lightyear Megaplex

 

T-0 Friday(290 showings): 3437(+1033)/66239

1.12x Ghostbusters T-0 (13.67M)

 

Didn't have time to post this morning, but the data is as of about 4 hours ago

[Porthos]

16 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

When looking at this, I wouldn't say that Lightyear underperformed based on tracking, but more so our expectations.  I've always struggled with determining how much I let other factors influence my predictions, and I think this time I leaned too much that way.  I am encouraged by the numbers above though, because a more accurate prediction was right in front of me the whole time.

 

 

I know we're pretty much in Full Autopsy Mode, and I know this is gonna look like I'm making excuses, but when it comes right down to it, I think the 10 day pre-sale window just fucked us over too much.  Usually we have enough time to see trends develop and see if something is really under-performing or just having a couple of bad days (or good days).

 

Lightyear, though, was doing fine... Though there were alarm bells starting to go off on Monday and it suddenly hit a wall, Solo-style (in retrospect this really is a redux of Solo as @Brainbug the Dinosaur pointed out in the LY thread).  

 

Problem was, EA sales masked it somewhat locally (plus that weird, inexplicable sellout).

 

Still, no excuses.  I personally overshot.  But I do think we would have been better prepared as a thread overall to see it if we had more days of pre-sales, since 10 days is really a small amount of time to really know.

[BruiseCruise]

 

[charlie Jatinder]

21 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

as isn't that $5.5m-5.75m a Thursday only number? 

Yeah and I am 99% sure $5.2m isn't including EA. Will confirm for certain tommorow tho.

 

Jokes apart. The film did best in South West. Cinemark & Harkins both did really well. Regal was low. AMC being fairly spread in both coast was right about normal.

 

And none of these were really surprising frankly. We are just joking here.

Edited June 17, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Yeah and I am 99% sure $5.2m isn't including EA. Will confirm for certain tommorow tho.

 

Jokes apart. The film did best in South West. Cinemark & Harkins both did really well. Regal was low. AMC being fairly spread in both coast was right about normal.

 

And none of these were really surprising frankly. We are just joking here.

 

If that's true, what a massive brain fart/publicity disaster from Disney.

 

@EmpireCity... you hear anything about whether or not that $5.2m includes Wed numbers or not?

 

(I'd tag Shawn, but he already said he'd be away for the weekend)

[EmpireCity]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

If that's true, what a massive brain fart/publicity disaster from Disney.

 

@EmpireCity... you hear anything about whether or not that $5.2m includes Wed numbers or not?

 

(I'd tag Shawn, but he already said he'd be away for the weekend)

 

There is no possible way it can include Wednesday from what I can see.  

[Porthos]

Just now, EmpireCity said:

 

There is no possible way it can include Wednesday from what I can see.  

 

What

In

The

Actual

Fuck

[Porthos]

Okay, depending on just how much Wed did, I take back like, about 75% of my self-flagellation.  

 

I still would have missed, but not nearly as much as I thought at first.

[ZackM]

I didn't do comps, but Lightyears previews compared to ticket sales at Alpha are not too atypical.

[Porthos]

26 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Okay, depending on just how much Wed did, I take back like, about 75% of my self-flagellation.  

 

I still would have missed, but not nearly as much as I thought at first.

 

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

FWIW, I decided to check and LY over-indexed even more than FB3 did.

 

FB3 comp = 5.5m

 

Can't even blame the number of EA shows we had on Wed which did about 17% of the total sales.  If I remove every single one of them, I still get a comp of 5.3m. Lightyear just over-performed in a couple of markets/chains (here, Harkins and katnisscineplex main overlook).

 

I mean, what the fucking hell.  ****MY**** Thursday number was 5.3m!!!!!!

 

...

 

I'm actually honestly annoyed at Disney right now! 

 

[okay, my Wed number is very likely over, but I nearly nailed Thr and I had to suffer some [good natured] thread grief for it!!!!!]

[Tinalera]

delete

+

Edited June 17, 2022 by Tinalera

[Tinalera]

1 minute ago, Tinalera said:

EDIT was going to an observation regarding performance (or IMO lack thereof) but decided against it, as it kind of teeters towards Lightyear thread territory, which I don't want to really get into in the weekend BO thread.

 

[ThomasNicole]

Nice to see Thor getting closer to DS2 already, bodes well for it's OW. 

 

I still think +30M previews can happen, if everything goes right.