The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[vale9001]

I don't think crawdads has the kind of fanbase can make all that stuff to put high the audience score on RT. I mean it has its (old) women fans, they love their book and that's all. I don't think they are that obsessed  🤣

 

Anyways good previews. 

 

 

Edited July 15, 2022 by vale9001

[filmlover]

7 minutes ago, Eric Odinson said:

I got the trailer for this in front of Elvis. My mom worships Diane Keaton, and even she thought this looked terrible.

 

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Crawdads (Fri)	N	32	266	266	3,669	7.25%	$12.50	$3,324.90
		Y	29	213	213	3,264	6.53%	$9.52	$2,027.81
	Total		61	479	479	6,933	6.91%	$11.17	$5,352.71
T-1	Paws of Fury (Fri)	N	20	49	49	2,034	2.41%	$12.12	$593.75
		Y	30	84	84	3,092	2.72%	$8.91	$748.77
	Total		50	133	133	5,126	2.59%	$10.09	$1,342.52

 

Pretty ugly presales for Crawdads, but Paws is already over 3x where previews were T-1.  

 

Crawdads Fri T-1 comp

 - Morbius - .318x (3.69m)

 

Paws of Fury Fri T-1 comps

 - Minions - .033x (1.22m)

 

Don't have any good comps for Santikos yet; still building my portfolio.  Here are my sales projections for tomorrow:

 

Crawdads: ~750
Paws of Fury: ~350

 

On 7/14/2022 at 8:53 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-7	Nope	PLF	21	16	143	5,307	2.69%	$15.48	$2,213.52
		Standard	22	4	57	2,875	1.98%	$10.73	$611.81
	Nope Total		43	20	200	8,182	2.44%	$14.13	$2,825.33

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-7	Nope	N	33	13	157	6,279	2.50%	$15.07	$2,365.76
		Y	10	7	43	1,903	2.26%	$10.69	$459.57
	Nope Total		43	20	200	8,182	2.44%	$14.13	$2,825.33

 

Nope T-7 comps

 - TG2 - .095x (1.39m)

 - FB3 - .302x (1.81m)

 - JW3 - missed

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Crawdads (Fri)	PLF	4	47	85	520	16.35%	$13.89	$1,180.43
		Standard	60	270	711	6,879	10.34%	$11.03	$7,839.20
	Total		64	317	796	7,399	10.76%	$11.33	$9,019.63
T-6	Nope	PLF	21	19	162	5,307	3.05%	$15.58	$2,523.95
		Standard	22	5	62	2,875	2.16%	$10.87	$673.78
	Total		43	24	224	8,182	2.74%	$14.28	$3,197.73

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Crawdads (Fri)	N	32	178	429	3,837	11.18%	$12.83	$5,505.63
		Y	32	139	367	3,562	10.30%	$9.57	$3,514.00
	Total		64	317	796	7,399	10.76%	$11.33	$9,019.63
T-0	Paws of Fury (Fri)	N	20	91	140	2,034	6.88%	$11.77	$1,648.04
		Y	30	151	235	3,092	7.60%	$8.84	$2,078.30
	Total		50	242	375	5,126	7.32%	$9.94	$3,726.34
T-6	Nope	N	33	22	179	6,279	2.85%	$15.17	$2,715.96
		Y	10	2	45	1,903	2.36%	$10.71	$481.77
	Total		43	24	224	8,182	2.74%	$14.28	$3,197.73

 

Nope T-6 comps

 - TG2 - .097x (1.42m)

 - FB3 - .279x (1.68m)

 - JW3 - missed

 

Crawdads Fri T-0 unadjusted comps

 - Elvis - .326x (3.02m)

 - Morbius - .323x (3.74m)

 

Paws of Fury Fri T-0 unadjusted comps

 - Minions - .042x (1.56m)

 - FB3 - .113x (1.58m)

 

Now that we have preview numbers...

 

Crawdads adjusted comps

 - Elvis - 5.86m

 - Morbius - 5.79m

 

Paws adjusted comps

 - Minions - 2.63m

 

For true Friday predictions, I'll go with 5.8m for Crawdads and 2.9m for Paws.

[Old Spice]

Oh man, this one stings. I flubbed FB3 because I failed to properly account for how much Salt Lake overindexes Wizarding World, but everything at my theater yesterday pointed to a much stronger opening for WTCS. I think I need a bigger data set, so beginning with Nope I'm going to start canvasing two other theaters in hopes of getting a more representative look at the valley as a whole. It will take a while to build up a list of comps, and in the meantime I'll still report on Sugarhouse, but hopefully this will lead to a more accurate picture down the road.

 

 

[vale9001]

15 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Crawdads (Fri)	PLF	4	47	85	520	16.35%	$13.89	$1,180.43
		Standard	60	270	711	6,879	10.34%	$11.03	$7,839.20
	Total		64	317	796	7,399	10.76%	$11.33	$9,019.63
T-6	Nope	PLF	21	19	162	5,307	3.05%	$15.58	$2,523.95
		Standard	22	5	62	2,875	2.16%	$10.87	$673.78
	Total		43	24	224	8,182	2.74%	$14.28	$3,197.73

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Crawdads (Fri)	N	32	178	429	3,837	11.18%	$12.83	$5,505.63
		Y	32	139	367	3,562	10.30%	$9.57	$3,514.00
	Total		64	317	796	7,399	10.76%	$11.33	$9,019.63
T-0	Paws of Fury (Fri)	N	20	91	140	2,034	6.88%	$11.77	$1,648.04
		Y	30	151	235	3,092	7.60%	$8.84	$2,078.30
	Total		50	242	375	5,126	7.32%	$9.94	$3,726.34
T-6	Nope	N	33	22	179	6,279	2.85%	$15.17	$2,715.96
		Y	10	2	45	1,903	2.36%	$10.71	$481.77
	Total		43	24	224	8,182	2.74%	$14.28	$3,197.73

 

Nope T-6 comps

 - TG2 - .097x (1.42m)

 - FB3 - .279x (1.68m)

 - JW3 - missed

 

Crawdads Fri T-0 unadjusted comps

 - Elvis - .326x (3.02m)

 - Morbius - .323x (3.74m)

 

Paws of Fury Fri T-0 unadjusted comps

 - Minions - .042x (1.56m)

 - FB3 - .113x (1.58m)

 

Now that we have preview numbers...

 

Crawdads adjusted comps

 - Elvis - 5.86m

 - Morbius - 5.79m

 

Paws adjusted comps

 - Minions - 2.63m

 

For true Friday predictions, I'll go with 5.8m for Crawdads and 2.9m for Paws.

 

But there are place where Crawdads matinees are selling already 40-50%

[katnisscinnaplex]

41 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

But there are place where Crawdads matinees are selling already 40-50%

Yep!  Unfortunately there are a bunch of matinees that are still empty.  My Thu to Fri presales multiplier range tops out at like 6.6m for Friday, but I don't think the chances of that are very high.  Gotta remember that true Thursday was very close to 2m. 3pm previews is basically a full day, and for a movie with a built-in audience I'm betting on a pretty low Thu to Fri multiplier.

[vale9001]

3 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Yep!  Unfortunately there are a bunch of matinees that are still empty.  My Thu to Fri presales multiplier range tops out at like 6.6m for Friday, but I don't think the chances of that are very high.  Gotta remember that true Thursday was very close to 2m. 3pm previews is basically a full day, and for a movie with a built-in audience I'm betting on a pretty low Thu to Fri multiplier.

but in some place yesterday there were 3 showings, today 10. 

[XXR vs XXR]

I postulate Crawdads IM could be under 7. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Crawdads (Fri)	PLF	4	47	85	520	16.35%	$13.89	$1,180.43
		Standard	60	270	711	6,879	10.34%	$11.03	$7,839.20
	Total		64	317	796	7,399	10.76%	$11.33	$9,019.63

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Crawdads (Fri)	N	32	178	429	3,837	11.18%	$12.83	$5,505.63
		Y	32	139	367	3,562	10.30%	$9.57	$3,514.00
	Total		64	317	796	7,399	10.76%	$11.33	$9,019.63
T-0	Paws of Fury (Fri)	N	20	91	140	2,034	6.88%	$11.77	$1,648.04
		Y	30	151	235	3,092	7.60%	$8.84	$2,078.30
	Total		50	242	375	5,126	7.32%	$9.94	$3,726.34

 

Crawdads Fri T-0 unadjusted comps

 - Elvis - .326x (3.02m)

 - Morbius - .323x (3.74m)

 

Paws of Fury Fri T-0 unadjusted comps

 - Minions - .042x (1.56m)

 - FB3 - .113x (1.58m)

 

Now that we have preview numbers...

 

Crawdads adjusted comps

 - Elvis - 5.86m

 - Morbius - 5.79m

 

Paws adjusted comps

 - Minions - 2.63m

 

For true Friday predictions, I'll go with 5.8m for Crawdads and 2.9m for Paws.

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Crawdads (Sat)	PLF	4	31	31	520	5.96%	$12.83	$397.87
		Standard	60	413	413	7,058	5.85%	$10.56	$4,359.59
	Total		64	444	444	7,578	5.86%	$10.72	$4,757.46

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Crawdads (Sat)	N	33	145	145	4,013	3.61%	$13.09	$1,897.85
		Y	31	299	299	3,565	8.39%	$9.56	$2,859.61
	Total		64	444	444	7,578	5.86%	$10.72	$4,757.46
T-1	Paws of Fury (Sat)	N	20	11	11	2,034	0.54%	$12.25	$134.77
		Y	30	124	124	3,051	4.06%	$9.18	$1,138.91
	Total		50	135	135	5,085	2.65%	$9.43	$1,273.68

 

Paws Sat T-1 unadjusted comp

 - Minions - 1.57m

 

Both are pretty close to their Friday T-1 sales (479 and 133 respectively).  

 

Using Minions growth rate change from Fri to Sat, Paws could end around 420 tickets with an adjusted Saturday comp of 4.03m.

 

I'll target around 850 sold for Crawdads, which would be comp out to 6.47m adjusted.

[XXR vs XXR]

5 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Using Minions growth rate change from Fri to Sat, Paws could end around 420 tickets with an adjusted Saturday comp of 4.03m.

 

I'll target around 850 sold for Crawdads, which would be comp out to 6.47m adjusted.

Something in these numbers seem a little too rosy. Using this Sat number and your Friday number for Paws, we’d be looking at a 21+ IM. The Crawdads numbers would point to a $20M opening and that also seems quite high.

Edited July 15, 2022 by StormbreakerXXR

[katnisscinnaplex]

2 minutes ago, StormbreakerXXR said:

Something in these numbers seem a little too rosy. Using this Sat number and your Friday number for Paws, we’d be looking at a 21+ IM. The Crawdads numbers would point to a $20M opening and that also seems quite high.

 

Well, I wouldn't say Minions is a great comp by any means.  That's probably the biggest issue

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Eric Odinson said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-mack-rita/

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 7/14/22)

8/5/2022

Bullet Train

$28,000,000 – $34,000,000

$85,000,000 – $120,000,000

Sony Pictures

 

Thanks for doing me a solid, @Shawn. 👍

 

(not that I was seriously entertaining it, mind, but good to get confirmation)

[Shawn Robbins]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

Thanks for doing me a solid, @Shawn. 👍

 

(not that I was seriously entertaining it, mind, but good to get confirmation)

I think I'm missing a reference?

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, Shawn said:

I think I'm missing a reference?

 

I don't (normally) do daily tracks for movies that look to be doing under 7m/70m (with leeway for animated films as they can have higher multis), so I was thanking you for the lower forecast as that gives me a bit of a holiday on nightly tracking.

 

Apologies for the Inside Joke there.  

[Shawn Robbins]

47 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I don't (normally) do daily tracks for movies that look to be doing under 7m/70m (with leeway for animated films as they can have higher multis), so I was thanking you for the lower forecast as that gives me a bit of a holiday on nightly tracking.

 

Apologies for the Inside Joke there.  

Ohhh, hah! No worries. I didn't realize you were talking about M&R or I may have pieced it together. I just saw Bullet Train quoted initially but it might be a mobile formatting bug with the chart.

[XXR vs XXR]

18 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Ohhh, hah! No worries. I didn't realize you were talking about M&R or I may have pieced it together. I just saw Bullet Train quoted initially but it might be a mobile formatting bug with the chart.

 He’s talking about Bullet Train.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Nope Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

108

1796

6.01%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

132

2004

6.59%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
559	N/A	17420	3.21%	15	83

 

AMCs sold	423
Cinemarks sold	57
Regals sold	45
Harkins sold	34

 

1.68x Halloween Kills T-7 (8.25M)

1.38x Suicide Squad T-7 (5.66M)

 

No Scream comp today

Nope Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

122

1796

6.79%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

144

2004

7.19%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
612	53	17420	3.51%	15	83

 

AMCs sold	470
Cinemarks sold	57
Regals sold	51
Harkins sold	34

 

1.22x Scream T-6 (4.28M)

1.61x Halloween Kills T-6 (7.89M)

1.35x Suicide Squad T-6 (5.55M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Nope Megaplex

 

T-7 Thursday(44 showings): 134/14880

0.912x Halloween Kills T-7 (4.42M)

0.717x Suicide Squad T-7 (2.94M)

 

T-8 Friday(58 showings): 70/12233

0.483x Halloween Kills T-8 (8.69M)

0.493x Suicide Squad T-8 (3.94M)

 

T-9 Saturday(58 showings): 33/12233

0.623x Halloween Kills T-9 (10.78M)

 

T-10 Sunday(52 showings): 10/11331

0.526x Halloween Kills T-10 (4.87M)

Nope Megaplex

 

T-6 Thursday(44 showings): 149(+15)/14880

0.621x Scream T-6 (2.17M)

0.955x Halloween Kills T-6 (4.63M)

0.674x Suicide Squad T-6 (2.76M)

 

T-7 Friday(58 showings): 74(+4)/12233

0.463x Scream T-7 (4.60M)

0.356x Halloween Kills T-7 (6.41M)

0.481x Suicide Squad T-7 (3.84M)

 

T-8 Saturday(58 showings): 35(+2)/12233

0.538x Scream T-8 (5.48M)

0.417x Halloween Kills T-8 (7.22M)

 

T-9 Sunday(52 showings): 12(+2)11331

0.800x Scream T-9 (5.17M)

0.571x Halloween Kills T-9 (5.29M)

Edited July 15, 2022 by Inceptionzq

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Nope Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-7 Thursday(112 showings): 3624/17592 ATP: $15.89

 

T-8 Friday(149 showings): 3100/25056 ATP: $16.39

 

T-9 Saturday(160 showings): 3020/26653 ATP: $15.45

 

T-10 Sunday(129 showings): 1527/21916 ATP: $15.55

Nope Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-6 Thursday(112 showings): 4112(+488)/17592 ATP: $15.84

1.58x Scream T-6 (5.53M)

 

T-7 Friday(149 showings): 3672(+572)/25056 ATP: $16.31

1.82x Scream T-7 (17.95M)

 

T-8 Saturday(160 showings): 3237(+217)/26653 ATP: $15.40

2.57x Scream T-8 (26.11M)

 

T-9 Sunday(129 showings): 1692(+165)/21916 ATP: $15.46

2.35x Scream T-9 (15.18M)

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Shawn said:

Ohhh, hah! No worries. I didn't realize you were talking about M&R or I may have pieced it together. I just saw Bullet Train quoted initially but it might be a mobile formatting bug with the chart.

 

1 hour ago, StormbreakerXXR said:

 He’s talking about Bullet Train.

 

Yes, when I wrote "7/70" I was referring to 7m Previews/70m Opening Weekend, but now that I look at it, I realize it might have looked like 7m OW/70m DOM.  

Apologies for the confusion there, Shawn.

(FWIW, I do have edge cases as I sometimes try to guess at movies with super long pre-sale windows or ones where it could go either way — but generally I try to stick to something clearing 70m on the OW.  And if I sometimes track a few films I wouldn't normally?  Well it's better that than being caught by surprise with something over-performing)

Edited July 15, 2022 by Porthos