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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

By Cap, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Shawn Robbins,

PSA:   As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum.   Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box o
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Posted by XXRDJisDoctorDoom,

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban.    Anyone else continues, it's points. 

We're all tired of the non-tracking related thread derailments. This is your fair warning.

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jedijake Box Office Gold

jedijake

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Verrows said:

Yeah this is my thought as well. I don't think a lot of schools are off and it's not a day off work for most so I don't see how much of a bump Friday will get. Definitely a bit of a bump but I'm hoping not so much that Saturday will DROP from true Friday. 

 

I miss Marvel Saturdays. Heck, I miss how Saturdays were at the box office in general. It's weird because you'd think after covid it would be the opposite, that there wouldn't be more front loading on opening day.

We don't have any big Friday Veterans Day to compare. The closest we have is Doctor Strange's 2nd weekend. We can see the Friday-Saturday change, but we can't see to what extent Friday was elevated over what it WOULD have been on a "normal" Friday.

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Verrows Box Office Gold

Verrows

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, jedijake said:

We don't have any big Friday Veterans Day to compare. The closest we have is Doctor Strange's 2nd weekend. We can see the Friday-Saturday change, but we can't see to what extent Friday was elevated over what it WOULD have been on a "normal" Friday.

Yeah, makes sense. Still charting new ground with some of these non traditional dates (ie. Usually Marvel November releases drop on the first Friday).

 

Hopefully this one draws a bettwr crowd on Saturday and Sunday than we expect post Covid though. If any movie can do it's this one. Same with Avatar 2.

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BestPicturePlutoNash Box Office Gold

BestPicturePlutoNash

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Posted
20 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

https://deadline.com/2022/11/black-panther-wakanda-forever-box-office-opening-weekend-projection-1235166807/

I think I'll take the over 175-185m domestic projections

 

No tracking listed for The Fabelmans but it's in 4 cinemas and I expect it over TAR and Banshees of Inisherin, at the very least. TAR opened to 158k and a 39.6k PTA. Banshees did 184k and a 46.1k PTA. 

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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

Posted
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8 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I think I'll take the over 175-185m domestic projections

 

No tracking listed for The Fabelmans but it's in 4 cinemas and I expect it over TAR and Banshees of Inisherin, at the very least. TAR opened to 158k and a 39.6k PTA. Banshees did 184k and a 46.1k PTA. 

Everything Everywhere remains the biggest PTA of the year so far with $50K so if Fabelmans came close to that (especially when it's having to fight for screen space with a massive tentpole, which none of the other specialty titles have so far this year when they opened) it would be pretty darn solid.

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Verrows Box Office Gold

Verrows

Posted
Posted

Contrary to what's been said re: Veterans Day, anyone think there's a chance Friday is actually depressed a bit for WF? Just anecdotally there are a few examples of people I know not going on Friday for various reasons. For instance, one of my friends takes public transit and the buses aren't even running where he lives on that day.

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
Just now, Verrows said:

Contrary to what's been said re: Veterans Day, anyone think there's a chance Friday is actually depressed a bit for WF? Just anecdotally there are a few examples of people I know not going on Friday for various reasons. For instance, one of my friends takes public transit and the buses aren't even running where he lives on that day.

It's absolutely not depressed. I can tell you that from presales, it's definitely inflated.

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jedijake Box Office Gold

jedijake

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3 minutes ago, K'uk'ulkan XXR said:

$45M in domestic presales per THR.
 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/black-panther-wakanda-forever-advance-ticket-sales-1235257803/

Is that good? Doesn't seem that great to me. Didn't SM: NWH do about that in the first 24 hours?

 

Seems like BPWF's sputtering along. WOM will be okay but not enough to push the presales up a ton in the last couple of days, eh?

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jedijake Box Office Gold

jedijake

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Nikostar said:

Friday and Saturday are looking huge. Hoping for 200 million.

Do we have numbers we can look at? All I've seen are the Alamo Drafthouse numbers.

 

What are true Friday and Saturday predictions?

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Verrows Box Office Gold

Verrows

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Do we have numbers we can look at? All I've seen are the Alamo Drafthouse numbers.

 

What are true Friday and Saturday predictions?

What it looks like to me is this movie is selling more on the weekend proper than we've gotten accustomed to post covid. We're getting used to really frontloaded multis so previews tracking doesn't paint the best picture, but as others have said Friday/Saturday/Sunday are looking really strong. Thursday is just unexpectedly soft.

 

We may be going back closer to the old MCU multis with WF here. We'll see!

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