The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Dragoncaine]

1 minute ago, vafrow said:

 

It's looking like some unpleasant weather in the northeast tomorrow, which is not going to help the walk up crowd.

 

I'm in the greater Toronto area, and it's looking like freezing rain and snow. That's "stay home" weather unless you've got something urgent.

 

I'm not sure how it's manifesting a bit further south in NE in the States. A few degrees warmer and its just rain, but, also not ideal for walk ups.

Yup, awful weather tomorrow and not great Friday in Central NY

[reddevil19]

36 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

It's looking like some unpleasant weather in the northeast tomorrow, which is not going to help the walk up crowd.

 

I'm in the greater Toronto area, and it's looking like freezing rain and snow. That's "stay home" weather unless you've got something urgent.

 

I'm not sure how it's manifesting a bit further south in NE in the States. A few degrees warmer and its just rain, but, also not ideal for walk ups.

Bloody freezing here in the UK too. Like, insanely cold. I can't be arsed to leave my home because I don't wanna spend the time de-icing my car, then struggling through some of the frozen, ungritted streets, etc. Add to that a ton of transport strikes (and strikes in general) and going to the cinema really wouldn't be a priority even if I had the time this weekend. 

 

 

[Old Spice]

Wednesday Dec 14th Salt Lake Valley update for Avatar 2: The Way of Water.

 

Preview Night:

Cinemark Sugarhouse (SLC, non-PLF) 245 (+18)

Cinemark Draper XD 320 (+7)

Cinemark Farmington XD (+23)

Total Tix Sold: 949 (+48), increase of 5.3% over yesterday.

 

Very slow day. Not even going to do comps because they haven't changed much. Only one of note is Wakanda, and A2 is up to 77% of the final presale for that with two days left. Weather isn't helping in-person purchasers either as yesterday the roads were icy and snow packed, and more storminess is predicted for the first half of tomorrow so we'll see if that has any effect on the walk ups.

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 12/13/2022 at 12:15 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-2	Avatar 2	3D	34	148	1,123	4,252	26.41%	$15.27	$17,153.74
		PLF	22	75	1,724	4,763	36.20%	$16.02	$27,625.43
		Standard	92	239	1,217	10,979	11.08%	$12.25	$14,905.02
	Total		148	462	4,064	19,994	20.33%	$14.69	$59,684.19
T-3	Avatar 2 (Fri)	3D	48	102	1,077	5,949	18.10%	$15.46	$16,647.45
		PLF	33	232	2,120	6,822	31.08%	$16.42	$34,817.54
		Standard	67	232	1,135	8,559	13.26%	$11.82	$13,411.34
	Total		148	566	4,332	21,330	20.31%	$14.98	$64,876.33
T-4	Avatar 2 (Sat)	3D	48	98	1,127	5,949	18.94%	$14.40	$16,233.30
		PLF	33	206	2,209	6,828	32.35%	$15.65	$34,565.39
		Standard	66	138	935	8,448	11.07%	$11.01	$10,293.14
	Total		147	442	4,271	21,225	20.12%	$14.30	$61,091.83
T-5	Avatar 2 (Sun)	3D	48	48	560	5,949	9.41%	$13.80	$7,727.87
		PLF	33	109	1,382	6,822	20.26%	$15.34	$21,196.66
		Standard	65	100	651	8,345	7.80%	$10.02	$6,524.19
	Total		146	257	2,593	21,116	12.28%	$13.67	$35,448.72

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-2	Avatar 2	N	109	362	3,163	14,889	21.24%	$15.44	$48,847.22
		Y	39	100	901	5,105	17.65%	$12.03	$10,836.97
	Total		148	462	4,064	19,994	20.33%	$14.69	$59,684.19
T-3	Avatar 2 (Fri)	N	67	398	3,278	10,138	32.33%	$16.01	$52,469.67
		Y	81	168	1,054	11,192	9.42%	$11.77	$12,406.66
	Total		148	566	4,332	21,330	20.31%	$14.98	$64,876.33
T-4	Avatar 2 (Sat)	N	67	240	2,143	10,256	20.90%	$16.80	$35,996.21
		Y	80	202	2,128	10,969	19.40%	$11.79	$25,095.62
	Total		147	442	4,271	21,225	20.12%	$14.30	$61,091.83
T-5	Avatar 2 (Sun)	N	65	91	920	9,924	9.27%	$17.49	$16,095.11
		Y	81	166	1,673	11,192	14.95%	$11.57	$19,353.61
	Total		146	257	2,593	21,116	12.28%	$13.67	$35,448.72

*Per M37 suggestion, I've split out 3D from the other PLF showings. 

 

Avatar previews T-2 comps

 - NWH - .227x (11.35m)

 - Batman - .789x (13.89m)

 - Thor 4 - .492x (14.26m)

 - DS2 - .3x (10.79m)

 - BP2 - .548x (15.33m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.124x (16.52m)

 - FB3 - 3.044x (18.27m)

 - JW3 - .659x (11.86m)

 

Underwhelming in Santikos to say the least.  At least Friday and Saturday are looking solid.

 

Avatar Fri T-3 comps

 - NWH - .283x (20.37m)

 - DS2 - .397x (21.73m)

 - Batman - .81x (28.24m)

 - TG2 - 1.051x (34.4m)

 - JW3 - .649x (26.99m)

 

 

Avatar Sat T-4 comps

 - NWH - .32x (23.69m)

 

Avatar Sun T-5 comps

 - NWH - .303x (19.47m)

 

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Avatar 2	3D	36	117	1,260	4,462	28.24%	$15.23	$19,187.30
		PLF	22	99	1,823	4,763	38.27%	$16.00	$29,167.17
		Standard	102	345	1,542	11,602	13.29%	$12.10	$18,659.59
	Total		160	561	4,625	20,827	22.21%	$14.49	$67,014.06
T-2	Avatar 2 (Fri)	3D	54	195	1,272	6,693	19.00%	$15.35	$19,521.63
		PLF	36	249	2,369	7,704	30.75%	$16.27	$38,546.11
		Standard	140	347	1,482	16,029	9.25%	$11.70	$17,346.28
	Total		230	791	5,123	30,426	16.84%	$14.72	$75,414.02
T-3	Avatar 2 (Sat)	3D	54	141	1,268	6,693	18.95%	$14.36	$18,205.88
		PLF	36	245	2,454	7,710	31.83%	$15.58	$38,234.52
		Standard	135	220	1,155	15,337	7.53%	$10.98	$12,678.22
	Total		225	606	4,877	29,740	16.40%	$14.17	$69,118.62
T-4	Avatar 2 (Sun)	3D	54	76	636	6,693	9.50%	$13.76	$8,753.65
		PLF	36	185	1,567	7,704	20.34%	$15.39	$24,110.00
		Standard	133	108	759	15,049	5.04%	$10.21	$7,749.22
	Total		223	369	2,962	29,446	10.06%	$13.71	$40,612.87

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Avatar 2	N	119	433	3,596	15,591	23.06%	$15.25	$54,832.15
		Y	41	128	1,029	5,236	19.65%	$11.84	$12,181.91
	Total		160	561	4,625	20,827	22.21%	$14.49	$67,014.06
T-2	Avatar 2 (Fri)	N	106	500	3,778	14,254	26.50%	$15.80	$59,710.74
		Y	124	291	1,345	16,172	8.32%	$11.68	$15,703.28
	Total		230	791	5,123	30,426	16.84%	$14.72	$75,414.02
T-3	Avatar 2 (Sat)	N	103	284	2,427	13,995	17.34%	$16.64	$40,385.39
		Y	122	322	2,450	15,745	15.56%	$11.73	$28,733.23
	Total		225	606	4,877	29,740	16.40%	$14.17	$69,118.62
T-4	Avatar 2 (Sun)	N	101	173	1,093	13,631	8.02%	$17.41	$19,030.18
		Y	122	196	1,869	15,815	11.82%	$11.55	$21,582.69
	Total		223	369	2,962	29,446	10.06%	$13.71	$40,612.87

 

Avatar previews T-1 comps

 - NWH - .243x (12.16m)

 - Batman - .767x (13.5m)

 - Thor 4 - .5x (14.5m)

 - DS2 - missed

 - BP2 - .573x (16.04m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.119x (16.45m)

 - FB3 - 2.99x (17.95m)

 - JW3 - .637x (11.47m)

 

Based on Santikos I'd guess somewhere between 16.5m and 17m.  

 

Avatar Fri T-2 comps

 - NWH - .305x (21.92m)

 - DS2 - missed

 - Batman - .796x (27.85m)

 - TG2 - 1.044x (34.16m)

 - JW3 - .62x (25.78m)

 - Thor 4 - .806x (32.7m)

 

Avatar Sat T-3 comps

 - NWH - .336x (24.84m)

 

Avatar Sun T-4 comps

 - NWH - .3x (19.28m)

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

@katnisscinnaplex For clarification, your comps are without ATP adjustment?

[krla]

It'll be interesting to see if weather and world cup impact A2. Similar thing happened in '09, I think the studio blamed some NFL game, and there was a blizzard and power outs on the east coast. 

I think things like that can help a bit, since it stretches the audience out and extends WoM. A big thing about marketing is getting your message seen over and over, in order to nudge people into getting it. With movies where the bulk of the built in audience is seeing it on OW, they'll talk about it for a couple days, and then WoM fades. But when that audience gets stretched out, it means that your average person gets exposed to people talking about it for weeks, which can bring out audiences that rarely hit theaters, which only further deepens WoM and lengthens those legs. So if Avatar 1 had had a completely unfettered OW, it may have ended up with a smaller gross. Another thing that helped Avatar extend its WoM was limited 3D screens. A2's runtime will limit the audience a bit, which could help elongate WoM.

[katnisscinnaplex]

16 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

@katnisscinnaplex For clarification, your comps are without ATP adjustment?

Yes, ATP not factored in

[Tinalera]

Avatar 2

Toronto Ontario (last count) No comps

Dec 15 and Dec 16 (taken Dec 14)

 

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	10	81	2185	16996	19181	0.1139
Fri	10	137	3078	31071	34149	0.0901

 

Okay, so for some reason again Thurs loses 15 shows (and a whack of seats). Friday gains a 40 plus shows, but those seats and counts got totally redistributed.

 

I can't think Ive tracked a movie that has this much of a disparity of losing seats (though again noting a LOT of those seats lost are non 3d seats like others have reported). Its really weird. Im positive Im doing my counts right on this-Cineplex just going on all weird, haven't seen quite like this that I can recall in past.

[Nikostar]

Seems like Boxofficepro is going with 145+. The downgraded from 185. Their personal prediction is 161 million. Hopefully it can at least do 16 million in previews.

[ThomasNicole]

BOP is really expecting some gold IM didn't they? 

 

Hopefully they're right.

[Cooper Legion]

Yeah that is quite a bullish range. Quite substantial chance this will be the first high profile in a quite a while to miss entirely on the low side. 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Avatar The Way of Water Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

998

2718

36.72%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

805

3226

24.95%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
5367	354	29855	17.98%	15	214

 

AMCs sold	2934
Cinemarks sold	804
Regals sold	926
Harkins sold	703

 

0.676x Thor L&T T-2 (19.61M)

1.22x Jurassic World Dominion T-2 (22.01M)

0.786x Top Gun Maverick T-2 (15.15M)

0.856x Batman T-2 (18.55M)

2.15x Eternals T-2 (20.46M)

 

Yeah you can definitely see that yesterday's comps were skewed. 

Avatar The Way of Water Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1077

2718

39.62%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

919

3598

25.54%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
5910	543	32106	18.41%	15	244

 

AMCs sold	3232
Cinemarks sold	924
Regals sold	1051
Harkins sold	703

 

0.652x Thor L&T T-1 (18.92M)

1.17x Jurassic World Dominion T-1 (21.11M)

0.792x Top Gun Maverick T-1 (15.26M)

0.843x Batman T-1 (18.22M)

2.07x Eternals T-1 (19.63M)

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

There’s a lot of good data in the article that suggest backloading could be high enough to go 8-9x previews. 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Avatar The Way of Water Megaplex

 

T-2 Thursday(186 showings): 5405(+309)/37450

0.612x Thor L&T T-2 (17.76M)

1.12x Jurassic World Dominion T-2 (20.16M)

0.665x Top Gun Maverick T-2 (12.80M)

0.717x Batman T-2 (15.49M)

 

T-3 Friday(269 showings): 6742(+562)/60089

1.18x Thor L&T T-3 (48.02M)

1.17x Jurassic World Dominion T-3 (48.52M)

0.733x Top Gun Maverick T-3 (24.02M)

1.28x Batman T-3 (44.97M)

 

T-4 Saturday(285 showings): 6534(+354)/62795

1.98x Thor L&T T-4

1.60x Jurassic World Dominion T-4

0.977x Top Gun Maverick T-4 (37.16M)

2.20x Batman T-4

 

T-5 Sunday(296 showings): 3405(+188)/67284

2.95x Thor L&T T-5

2.50x Jurassic World Dominion T-5

1.72x Top Gun Maverick T-5

4.71x Batman T-5

Avatar The Way of Water Megaplex

 

T-1 Thursday(188 showings): 6031(+626)/37740

0.595x Thor L&T T-1 (17.26M)

1.09x Jurassic World Dominion T-1 (19.56M)

0.658x Top Gun Maverick T-1 (12.68M)

0.716x Batman T-1 (15.46M)

 

T-2 Friday(269 showings): 7599(+857)/60089

1.10x Thor L&T T-2 (44.41M)

1.07x Jurassic World Dominion T-2 (44.59M)

0.718x Top Gun Maverick T-2 (23.51M)

1.16x Batman T-2 (40.46M)

 

T-3 Saturday(288 showings): 7351(+817)/63242

1.86x Thor L&T T-3

1.48x Jurassic World Dominion T-3

0.903x Top Gun Maverick T-3 (34.33M)

1.93x Batman T-3

 

T-4 Sunday(299 showings): 3808(+403)/67716

2.81x Thor L&T T-4

2.18x Jurassic World Dominion T-4

1.63x Top Gun Maverick T-4

4.20x Batman T-4

[Nikostar]

Yeah BOP will be way off but what are previews numbers looking like as of now.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

2 minutes ago, Nikostar said:

Yeah BOP will be way off but what are previews numbers looking like as of now.

Seems like $18-19M to me. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

There’s a lot of good data in the article that suggest backloading could be high enough to go 8-9x previews. 

A big issue I see with the interpretation there is that if a movie is more frontloaded in PS, that's gonna affect FSS proportionately more, since those days are more determined by walkups. I think that significantly weakens the conclusions being drawn from current FSS percentage of sales compared to JWD/TGM (especially the former). 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Avatar The Way of Water Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-2 Thursday(294 showings): 9392(+660)/35943 ATP: $15.64

0.494x Thor L&T T-2 (14.32M)

0.955x Jurassic World Dominion T-2 (17.19M)

1.06x Top Gun Maverick Thurs only T-2 (16.15M)

0.587x Batman Thurs only T-2 (10.33M)

 

T-3 Friday(507 showings): 12425(+1131)/61722 ATP: $15.89

0.719x Thor L&T T-3 (29.14M)

1.07x Jurassic World Dominion T-3 (44.50M)

1.14x Top Gun Maverick T-3 (37.34M)

0.666x Batman T-3 (23.30M)

 

T-4 Saturday(530 showings): 13258(+954)/64174 ATP: $15.21

0.811x Thor L&T T-4 (34.16M)

1.16x Jurassic World Dominion T-4 (54.39M)

1.34x Top Gun Maverick T-4 (50.95M)

0.677x Batman T-4 (29.30M)

 

T-5 Sunday(494 showings): 8740(+455)/59955 ATP: $15.00

0.862x Thor L&T T-5 (28.00M)

1.40x Jurassic World Dominion T-5 (54.02M)

1.38x Top Gun Maverick T-5 (50.69M)

0.851x Batman T-5 (29.05M)

Avatar The Way of Water Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-1 Thursday(294 showings): 10509(+1117)/35943 ATP: $15.58

0.480x Thor L&T T-1 (13.93M)

0.922x Jurassic World Dominion T-1 (16.60M)

1.04x Top Gun Maverick Thurs only T-1 (15.85M)

 

T-2 Friday(507 showings): 14149(+1724)/61722 ATP: $15.78

0.694x Thor L&T T-2 (28.13M)

0.981x Jurassic World Dominion T-2 (40.79M)

1.09x Top Gun Maverick T-2 (35.57M)

 

T-3 Saturday(530 showings): 15010(+1752)/64174 ATP: $15.17

0.789x Thor L&T T-3 (33.23M)

1.11x Jurassic World Dominion T-3 (52.10M)

128x Top Gun Maverick T-3 (48.79M)

 

T-4 Sunday(510 showings): 9632(+892)/61327 ATP: $14.99

0.832x Thor L&T T-4 (27.05M)

1.21x Jurassic World Dominion T-4 (46.59M)

1.29x Top Gun Maverick T-4 (47.30M)

[Cooper Legion]

15 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

There’s a lot of good data in the article that suggest backloading could be high enough to go 8-9x previews. 

It’s good data to be paying attention to but it!s mostly similar to what we’ve already been able to see in this thread rather than significantly additive to it.  
 

If you go super naively, Fri Ps as +35% th vs -30% for some ~5x movies (ds/Thor) would lead to an IM of 1+(1.35/.7*4)~=8.7x  

 

A big problem being, lower PS help higher PSm and higher presales hurt PSm, so as a very generally rule of thumb ratio in actuals will be less than ratio in PS. Say a 93% lead in PS (135 vs 70) leading to only 1.7x in actuals. Then 1+1.7*4= just 7.8x. You can draw similar conclusions by similar computation vs JWD or tgm instead (similar fri/th advantage but not even sniffing 9x). So the data nibbles there are almost bearish for IM relative to consensus among bot ps analysis diehards even as they are very bullish vs stuff like DS and Thor.

 

As I said earlier though, ultimately I would not go down much in est IM. I would not go up. The info provided is very congruent with our expectations before it was provided.

Edited December 15, 2022 by Korra Legion

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 minute ago, Korra Legion said:

It’s good data to be paying attention to but it!s mostly similar to what we’ve already been able to see in this thread rather than significantly additive to it.  
 

If you go super naively, Fri Ps as +35% th vs -30% for some ~5x movies (ds/Thor) would lead to an IM of 1+(1.35/.7*4)~=8.7x  

 

A big problem being, lower PS help higher PSm and higher presales hurt PSm, so as a very generally rule of thumb ratio in actuals will be less than ratio in PS. Say a 93% lead in PS (135 vs 70) leading to only 1.7x in actuals. Then 1+1.7*4= just 7.8x. So the data nibbles there are almost bearish relative to consensus among bot ps analysis diehards even as they are very bullish vs stuff like DS and Thor.

 

As I said earlier though, ultimately I would not go down much in est IM. I would not go up. The info provided is very congruent with our expectations before it was provided.