The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[YSLDC]

11 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Wow DC did a great job brainwashing me cause I thought this was opening $150M+ based on crazy social media hype 

 

It's a solo movie with the Flash origin story. Why should it be pre-sales heavy? It'll have great word of mouth and can open at 150M plus

Edited May 23, 2023 by YSLDC

[Joyous Legion]

29 minutes ago, YSLDC said:

Can anyone name the last DC movie not set in the Batman universe (Joker 2019, The Batman 2022) that had great pre-sales from the jump?

Can anyone name the last DC movie not The Batman or Joker that had great previews in the end?

[GOGODanca]

The Batman had great WOM and didn't do 150m OW and it wasn't sharing premium screens either, Flash should hope for some  version of TGMs run, 

[ringedmortality]

Maybe Jurassic World Dominion would be a good comp for The Flash?

[GOGODanca]

2 minutes ago, Legions of the Galaxy said:

Can anyone name the last DC movie not The Batman or Joker that had great previews in the end?

Suicide Squad

[Joyous Legion]

Show count is not a relevant factor at such a low level of sales, but if people want some hopium go for it. It won’t be nearly as d1 heavy as a marvel biggie, sure — when you’re looking at more of BW/Eternals sized start than a QM/WF start then you’ll get more of BW/Et style run.

[YM!]

On the bright side, maybe Elemental can survive a bit more now.

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Legions of the Galaxy said:

Show count is not a relevant factor at such a low level of sales, but if people want some hopium go for it. It won’t be nearly as d1 heavy as a marvel biggie, sure — when you’re looking at more of BW/Eternals sized start than a QM/WF start then you’ll get more of BW/Et style run.

Its definitely having bigger OD than BW and Eternals at least based on data seen by me. That said I am with you on keeping expectations low. That said this has lower screen allocation than Transformers despite selling way more tickets in few hours than what Transformers did so far. 

 

Anyway it looks like June could be a bust. Only breakout I see is Spiderverse. Beyond that couple of movies will have solid but not spectacular openings (Flash and Indy). Transformers look even lower than those 2. Rest are all in bad shape for now. 

 

Next up is MI7 from a big movie and personally to me Oppenheimer whose presales start soon. 

[cax16]

Don’t have time to track anymore or even post much in here but as I said in the flash thread I wasn’t expecting this to have huge opening sales when tickets went up. It will get a decent push if reviews come out and are really good. I never understood the 115-140 range ( no offence to anyone), I always thought  an opening around or just above black adam would be good for this  and maybe if things go really well it could hit 100m. 
 

[PrinceRico]

Spiderverse reaction will be out tomorrow. Looking for to seeing the effect on ticket sells.

[ThomasNicole]

37 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

There's no reason for the flash to have  a huge mcu sequel esque start or even on par with The Batman. if its as good as WB believes it to be then it will get great reviews and ramp up close to release

Lol what? This is their No Way Home and DC is also a frontloaded franchise (The Batman was a notable exception and it still did way better on it’s first hours). 
 

It can ended up being backloaded for some reason like fatigue and ramp up closer to release, but only to a point like we see with Guardians recently. 
 

Being close to the 3rd reboot of Batman should be the least expected.

[GOGODanca]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

Lol what? This is their No Way Home and DC is also a frontloaded franchise (The Batman was a notable exception and it still did way better on it’s first hours). 
 

It can ended up being backloaded for some reason like fatigue and ramp up closer to release, but only to a point like we see with Guardians recently. 
 

Being close to the 3rd reboot of Batman should be the least expected.

batman is a much more popular character than the flash and there's no guarantee the 40 and 50 year olds who grew up on keaton will show up

 

Also its not remotely comparable to NWH outside of different timelines, Tobey's films were massive, Hollands were massive and even Andrew had a lot of fans, essentially 3 spidermen from 3 seperate 700m+ films coming together, the GA has no reason to care about the flash or supergirl at this point

[ThomasNicole]

14 minutes ago, YSLDC said:

 

It's a solo movie with the Flash origin story. Why should it be pre-sales heavy? It'll have great word of mouth and can open at 150M plus

Oh the solo movie with 2 generational Batman’s, Supergirl and other glorified cameos 

 

You’re setting yourself to disappointment treating this as a normal standalone movie and not the wrap up of the Snyder Verse

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Little Mermaid Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

229

3215

7.12%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

216

2071

10.43%

 

Wednesday: 347(+18)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1365	191	23582	5.79%	13	152

 

0.342x Avatar 2 T-3 (5.81M)

0.448x JW Dominion T-3 (8.05M)

2.08x Ghostbusters T-3 (9.36M)

0.956x Shang-Chi T-3 (8.42M)

The Little Mermaid Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

248

3159

7.85%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

261

1901

13.73%

 

Wednesday: 368(+21)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1686	321	23478	7.07%	13	149

 

0.383x Avatar 2 T-2 (6.50M)

0.468x JW Dominion T-2 (8.42M)

1.99x Ghostbusters T-2 (8.96M)

0.995x Shang-Chi T-2 (8.76M)

[YM!]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Anyway it looks like June could be a bust. Only breakout I see is Spiderverse. Beyond that couple of movies will have solid but not spectacular openings (Flash and Indy). Transformers look even lower than those 2. Rest are all in bad shape for now. 

I don’t get why this June is so stuffed. They could have easily moved Transformers, Gillman and Indy to either later in the summer or to the fall. It doesn’t have to be a tentpole logjam

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Little Mermaid Alamo Drafthouse

T-2 Wednesday	3 Showings	304	+2	321
T-3 Thursday	191 Showings	6667	+849	26677	ATP:	16.32

0.798	Avatar 2 T-3	13.57M
0.818	JW Dominion T-3	14.73M
2.021	Ghostbusters T-3	9.09M

 

T-4 Friday

280 Showings

9806

+1241

38006

ATP:

15.62

0.868	Avatar 2 T-4	31.43M
1.056	JW Dominion T-4	43.94M
2.942	Ghostbusters T-4	35.75M

 

T-5 Saturday

283 Showings

9341

+1083

39309

0.759	Avatar 2 T-5	33.65M
1.018	JW Dominion T-5	47.74M
2.693	Ghostbusters T-5	44.28M

 

T-6 Sunday

260 Showings

6391

+799

36502

0.771	Avatar 2 T-6	28.21M
1.251	JW Dominion T-6	48.29M
3.694	Ghostbusters T-6	40.34M

The Little Mermaid Alamo Drafthouse

T-1 Wednesday	3 Showings	307	+3	321
T-2 Thursday	247 Showings	7472	+805	33479	ATP:	16.30

0.828	Avatar 2 T-2	14.08M
0.791	JW Dominion T-2	14.24M
2.016	Ghostbusters T-2	9.07M

 

T-3 Friday

415 Showings

11524

+1718

53674

ATP:

15.60

0.927	Avatar 2 T-3	33.57M
0.990	JW Dominion T-3	41.17M
2.911	Ghostbusters T-3	35.37M

 

T-4 Saturday

433 Showings

10585

+1244

55204

0.798	Avatar 2 T-4	35.39M
0.922	JW Dominion T-4	43.25M
2.617	Ghostbusters T-4	43.02M

 

T-5 Sunday

404 Showings

7245

+854

52218

0.829	Avatar 2 T-5	30.31M
1.160	JW Dominion T-5	44.78M
3.590	Ghostbusters T-5	39.20M

[cax16]

5 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Oh the solo movie with 2 generational Batman’s, Supergirl and other glorified cameos 

 

You’re setting yourself to disappointment treating this as a normal standalone movie and not the wrap up of the Snyder Verse

I normally agree with your points but none of the stuff you listed really matter much. Keaton has fans sure but Snyder’s movies aren’t well liked and who even cares about Supergirl outside of hardcore dc fans like me?

 

Don’t want to derail this thread much more but some peoples expectations were too high for this. The movie has good buzz sure but there’s still a lot working against the movie. I’ll leave it at that. 
 

I just wanna add that I’m not at all worried about the opening weekend numbers, I think it’s gonna do fine but as I said I just think people’s expectations were high. Maybe it will surprise everyone? We’ll see I guess. 

Edited May 23, 2023 by cax16

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, YM! said:

I don’t get why this June is so stuffed. They could have easily moved Transformers, Gillman and Indy to either later in the summer or to the fall. It doesn’t have to be a tentpole logjam

Transformers specifically would benefit a lot from an September release … recognizable brand but not a priority anymore, could’ve thrive without competition 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Across the Spider-Verse Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

418

3200

13.06%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

317

1875

16.91%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1884	92	23106	8.15%	13	125

 

0.357x Thor L&T T-10 (10.34M)

1.20x Eternals T-10 (11.36M)

Across the Spider-Verse Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

434

3200

13.56%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

329

1875

17.55%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1986	102	22850	8.69%	13	123

 

0.541x Ant-Man 3 T-9 (9.46M)

0.364x Thor L&T T-9 (10.55M)

0.494x Batman T-9 (10.67M)

1.20x Eternals T-9 (11.40M)

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, cax16 said:

I normally agree with your points but none of the stuff you listed really matter much. Keaton has fans sure but Snyder’s movies aren’t well liked and who even cares about Supergirl outside of hardcore dc fans like me?

 

Don’t want to derail this thread much more but some peoples expectations were too high for this. The movie has good buzz sure but there’s still a lot working against the movie. I’ll leave it at that. 

You’re right, better to not keep discussing. 
 

And sure it’s not really a beloved universe, but Snyder Fans are chronically online, i certainly expected some rush from them and more diehard DC fans. 
 

But like i said i can see the movie ramping up and paying the sins for the not well received previous DCEU movies, like it happened with Guardians. 
 

But i do think there’s a ceiling for that, the 150M numbers some people said seems absolutely insane for me with this start, even if it ramps up. 
 

Let’s see how it goes, i can see 100M OW if everything goes right and WOM can carry it.