The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[excel1]

Flash obliterating Black Adam presales is a good sign. Black Adam opened to a solid $67m. Flash of course should have higher expectations and resales were in line there. 

[keysersoze123]

Interesting we are seeing influx new posters who come and tell us how to predict. 

 

That said I had told earlier that I am not predicting Flash OW just based on these presales. I like to see few days of trend. Probably by this weekend we should be able to extrapolate within 5% of final number. 

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Interesting we are seeing influx new posters who come and tell us how to predict. 

I understand that it´s frustrating seeing something you´re rooting for not having the best start possible, but yeah some people are really defensive when we´re just talking about it like we always do ... some people just though it would start stronger but no one said it´s definitely going to bomb or disappoint like some people are pretending 

[excel1]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Interesting we are seeing influx new posters who come and tell us how to predict. 

 

New posters are always welcome and offering their opinions is not the same as telling older posters how to predict.

[interiorgatordecorator]

6 hours ago, John Marston said:

Obviously The Flash probably won’t tank  or anything but there is zero reason why it would open above GOTG 3

 

zero reason seems a bit harsh

[ThomasNicole]

Mermaid seems to be heading to the stronger side of the realistic goal ... 12m-ish previews / 110 - 120 OW / 135-145M MD

 

Decent reviews probably helped, now let´s hope for an A on CS

[interiorgatordecorator]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Would be an amusing turn of events after all the claims of "this summer is too overcrowded" we simply end up with a season with a bunch of solid performers but no true breakouts compared to pre-release expectations.

 

 

Wouldn't that be a direct consequence of summer being too overcrowded?

[keysersoze123]

Good news for Flash is that it wins the 80s nostalgia test. Flash OD presales at least what I can see around 2x Indy OD presales. Issue is that Indy OD presales sucked. 

[John Marston]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Good news for Flash is that it wins the 80s nostalgia test. Flash OD presales at least what I can see around 2x Indy OD presales. Issue is that Indy OD presales sucked. 

 

Flash being a superhero film should have much better presales. Indy will rely more on walk ups especially from the boomer/AARP crowd 

[keysersoze123]

never mind they cannot be that many shows on 12th. 

Edited May 24, 2023 by keysersoze123

[keysersoze123]

 

2 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

Flash being a superhero film should have much better presales. Indy will rely more on walk ups especially from the boomer/AARP crowd 

Keaton will bring in the boomer crowd as well. We will have to wait and see. 

[WorkingonaName]

2 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

Flash being a superhero film should have much better presales. Indy will rely more on walk ups especially from the boomer/AARP crowd 

Wheelups.

[screambaby]

Fwiw I'm a new poster and  I'm not telling anyone how to predict anything. I'm just interpreting the data you guys are putting  out. Maybe I'm interpreting it wrong.

 

I've lurked for a long time though before I ever joined. I had scream 6 pegged for 40 or more OW thanks to the great tracking you guys did in here even when you said 50 before it tailed off I was telling people in other places who were thinking it wouldn't hit 30 'its doing 40-45 based on the constant tracking I'm seeing'

 

So in no way think I'm insulting your tracking abilities please..

[M37]

[21C]

26 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Keaton will bring in the boomer crowd as well. We will have to wait and see. 

I think he would if everything surrounding him didn't seem like a pretty blatant turn-off for them. 

[M37]

On 5/19/2023 at 7:41 PM, M37 said:

Little Mermaid T-7 Analysis/Update

 

Here's the approximate benchmarks for Alpha to keep on that pace, from a current value of 52.7K for Thursday (excluding early shows from these numbers)

• T-4 = around 65K (+25% or so)
• T-2 = around 90K (+70-75%)
• T-F = 170K-185K

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Mermaid

MTC1 

Wednesday - 18628/34974 397350.48 153 shows +1113

Previews(T-2) - 88564/954614 1489196.42 5868 shows +11670

Friday - 121060/1202810 1945155.10 6943 shows +23236

 

 

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Thursday is probably headed for 180K finish. I am still sticking with 12m previews including early shows. 

Pace is shading just a bit lower than the higher end of the growth rate grouping. As of right would project slightly lower, more in the 170-175K range, but basically same $11.5-$12M total preview. The semi-holiday Friday may help walk-ups enough to push it over 180K

[Porthos]

On 5/20/2023 at 1:58 AM, Porthos said:

 

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Sacto Report — Terrible Comps Edition [T-20]

609/19443 [3.13% sold]

 

At T-20:

0.23378x the sales of TGM         [4.50m] [started at T-23]

0.30742x the sales of JWD         [5.53m] [started at T-42]

0.76125x the sales of Fast X       [5.71m] [started at T-98]

1.82883x the sales of Shazam 2 [6.22m] [started at T-28]

 

After 10 days of pre-sales:

0.69521x the sales of NTTD        [4.31m]

1.21315x the sales of GB:A          [5.46m]

0.59126x the sales of BA             [4.49m]

0.49472x the sales of Wick 4     [4.40m]

 

Anyone wants to glean anything from that, be my guest. 👍

 

Quick and Dirty Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Sacto Report [T-16]

675/19443 [3.47% sold]

 

0.18714x the sales of TGM at T-16                [3.60m]

0.29020x the sales of JWD at T-16               [5.22m]

0.85660x the sales of Black Adam at T-16   [6.51m]

1.80000x the sales of Shazam 2 at T-16       [6.12m]

0.65982x the sales of Wick 4 at T-16           [5.87m]

0.74503x the sales of Fast X at T-16            [5.59m]

[Porthos]

On 5/23/2023 at 12:16 AM, Porthos said:

 

 

Across the Spider-Verse Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	129	18385	20786	2401	11.55%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

154

 

T-10 Comps:

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
ET	101.57		124	2364		0/96	13177/15541	15.21%		6409	37.46%		10.91m
JWD	75.36		192	3186		0/191	22186/25372	12.56%		10966	21.89%		13.56m
BA	214.18		47	1121		0/148	21302/22423	5.00%		4494	53.43%		16.28m
A2	69.13		162	3473		0/145	18011/21484	16.17%		8986	26.72%		11.75m
Wick 4	172.49		59	1392		0/95	12399/13791	10.09%		5448	44.07%		15.35m
GOTG3	59.49		153	4036		0/205	25321/29357	13.75%		8363	28.71%		10.41m
TLM	119.75		142	2005		0/153	20609/22614	1.08%		????	????		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of AtSV's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ET COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x to reflect the ATP differences between now and then, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:        335/6453  [5.19% sold]
Matinee:    149/2663  [5.60% | 6.21% of all tickets sold]
------
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
AtSV = 1.22478x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-10 [16.90m]    
AtSV = 0.70575x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-10 [18.67m]    
AtSV = 1.2694x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-10      [12.41m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

 

Across the Spider-Verse Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	140	19549	22142	2593	11.71%

 

Total Showings Added Today	11
Total Seats Added Today	1356
Total Seats Sold Today	192

 

T-9 Comps:

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
ET	104.35		121	2485		0/99	13201/15686	15.84%		6409	40.46%		11.21m
JWD	76.72		194	3380		0/190	21844/25224	13.40%		10966	23.65%		13.81m
BA	217.53		71	1192		0/152	21769/22961	5.19%		4494	57.70%		16.53m
A2	70.83		188	3661		0/184	22468/26129	14.01%		8986	28.86%		12.04m
Wick 4	177.24		71	1463		0/109	13836/15299	9.56%		5448	47.60%		15.77m
GOTG3	61.17		124	4239		0/207	25745/29984	14.14%		8363	31.01%		10.70m
TLM	121.74		125	2130		0/165	21370/23500	1.08%		????	????		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of AtSV's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ET COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x to reflect the ATP differences between now and then, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:       392/7728  [5.07% sold]
Matinee:    158/2870  [5.51% | 6.09% of all tickets sold]
------
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
AtSV = 1.26178x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-9 [17.41m]    
AtSV = 0.69837x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-9 [18.47m]    
AtSV = 1.27638x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-9 [12.48m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

[Porthos]

21 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	201	24221	27758	3537	12.74%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	24
Total Net Seats Added Today	2399
Total Seats Sold Today	482

 

T-3 Comps:

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	216.99		269	1630		0/109	12800/14430	11.30%		3951	89.52%		13.56m
JWD	58.34		795	6063		0/281	26773/32836	18.46%		10966	32.25%		10.50m
BA	162.85		286	2172		0/223	27742/29914	7.26%		4494	78.70%		12.38m
Scream VI	233.77		251	1513		0/102	10725/12238	12.36%		3134	112.86%		13.33m
Wick 4	133.62		342	2647		0/152	16697/19344	13.68%		5448	64.92%		11.89m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:       538/7429  [7.24% sold]
Matinee:    146/1209  [12.08% | 4.13% of all tickets sold]
3D:            400/4317  [9.27% | 11.31% of all tickets sold]
———    
Wed:          295/1516  [19.46% sold] [+31 tickets]
Thr:      3242/26242  [12.35% sold] [+451 tickets]
———    
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
TLM = 2.0215x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking at T-3 [16.27m]    
TLM = 1.0148x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-3       [14.00m]    
TLM = 0.55348x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-3    [14.64m]    
TLM = 1.08331x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-3       [10.59m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	221	24918	28890	3972	13.75%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	20
Total Net Seats Added Today	1132
Total Seats Sold Today	435

 

T-2 Comps:

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	189.50		466	2096		0/119	13278/15374	13.63%		3951	100.53%		11.84m
JWD	57.91		796	6859		0/288	26655/33514	20.47%		10966	36.22%		10.42m
BA	154.61		397	2569		0/232	28250/30819	8.34%		4494	88.38%		11.75m
Scream VI	223.02		268	1781		0/111	11647/13428	13.26%		3134	126.74%		12.71m
Wick 4	124.16		552	3199		0/166	17433/20632	15.51%		5448	72.91%		11.05m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:       603/8203  [7.35% sold]
Matinee:    184/1556  [11.83% | 4.63% of all tickets sold]
3D:            435/4318  [10.07% | 10.95% of all tickets sold]
———    
Wed:    326/1517      [21.49% sold] [+31 tickets]
Thr:    3646/27373  [13.32% sold]  [+404 tickets]
———    
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
TLM = 1.90602x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking at T-2 [15.34m]    
TLM = 0.97091x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-2       [13.40m]    
TLM = 0.53748x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-2       [14.22m]    
TLM = 1.07327x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-2          [10.49m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

[Porthos]

21 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-38 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	122	18834	19256	422	2.19%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

422

 

Day 1 Comps:

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	59.02		715	715		0/158	21618/22333	3.20%		10966	3.85%		10.62m
BA	99.06		426	426		0/142	21387/21813	1.95%		4494	9.39%		7.53m
Wick 4	87.73		481	481		0/82	11915/12396	3.88%		5448	7.75%		7.81m
TLM	92.95		454	454		0/153	21451/21905	1.08%		????	????		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:      68/5858  [1.16% sold]
Matinee:    32/1615  [1.98% | 7.58% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Couple things.

 

Rather than do a scattershot of frankly IMO_Not-Very-Viable-Comps, I whittled down the list to mostly/partially-viable-Day 1 comps.  But the truth of the matter is, this has 39 days of pre-sales and of the films that I've tracked in the last year plus, I can count literally on one hand how many of them had that were that long, or longer. 

 

And of those, only JWD is remotely in the right range as the 99 days of pre-sales for Fast X makes even that unsuitable for now (the other two, BP2 and Nope, are LOL for different reasons).

 

Still, I suspect folks might ask for some of the following films, so some unofficial comps that I will not be including going forward:

 

2.1206x GBA first day of sales                  [9.54m]

0.3197x Avatar 2 first day of sales            [5.43m]

0.2230x GOTG3 first day of sales             [3.90m]

1.557x Rise of the Beasts first day of sales   [???]

 

(I only point out the GOTG3 comp to show just how unsuitable a comp any MCU film is*, even one as not-as-frontloaded as GOTG3 was)

* Probably

 

I'd include the first day of sales for NTTD, but I didn't capture its EA shows until my third day of tracking, so that'd be a misleading comp.  I'll supply it on Day 3, however.

 

The second note is that the most trafficked theater in the region, Century Arden, in its infinite wisdom, not only didn't put up its PLF sets for Indy 5 yet, only put up three showings for Indy 5.  And in a medium sized auditorium to boot.  None of the other Century theaters in town followed suit, btw.  So there is something of a very minor asterisk here due to lack of expected sales from Century Arden.  But it's also got 38 more days of sales so they'll show up eventually.

 

Anyway, not a terribly robust start no matter how it's sliced, but beyond that I don't want to draw any conclusions.  Plenty of time for that to become apparent one way or the other.

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-37 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	122	18778	19262	484	2.51%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

62

 

Day 2 Comps:

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	51.65		222	937		0/158	21395/22332	4.20%		10966	4.41%		9.30m
BA	96.41		76	502		0/142	21311/21813	2.30%		4494	10.77%		7.33m
Wick 4	73.67		176	657		0/84	12063/12720	5.17%		5448	8.88%		6.56m
TLM	88.97		90	544		0/154	21462/22006	1.08%		????	????		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:       74/5858  [1.26% sold]
Matinee:    34/1615  [2.11% | 7.02% of all tickets sold]