Weekend Thread (1/21-23) | Asgard 2 says 3.5 Fri for Scream, 3.4 Spider-Man

[XXR & Friends]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

*double checks*

 

THAT's what screwed me.

 

Hate to break this to you, Legion, but Batman Begins was a 5 day opener.  

 

(I just went by date and picked a day four days after opening)

 

 

 

Ohhh, what a twist! 

 

In the first 5 days it did $72M or so. Split the difference to a "pure" 3-day and maybes it's something like $59-62M? Now we're looking at a rank around 25th, which today would be.....

$150M.

 

Edited January 23, 2022 by RiddlerXXR

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, RiddlerXXR said:

 

Ohhh, what a twist! 

 

In the first 5 days it did $72M or so. Split the difference to a "pure" 3-day and maybes it's something like $59-62M? Now we're looking at a rank around 25th, which today would be.....

$150M.

 

And what's the number Unca Porthos has been calling for all along? 😎

 

(Total by Sunday was 72.9m, as I edited into my post, FWIW)

Edited January 23, 2022 by Porthos

[Joyous Legion]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

*double checks*

 

THAT's what screwed me.

 

Hate to break this to you, Legion, but Batman Begins was a 5 day opener.    It was at 72.9m by the end of OW.

 

(I just went by date and picked a day five days after opening)

 

 

Oh no, now we've convert 5D to 3D and look at the rank on the synthetic OW 

 

(I say oh no but actually I love this)

[Joyous Legion]

My synthetic 3D is 55.2

[XXR & Friends]

 

Titled Batman Films OW Rank (at the time of release) 

 

Batman = 1st

Batman Returns = 1st
Batman Forever = 1st 
Batman and Robin = N / A (could find the rank, but adjusting versus the record at the time gives us $208M today)

Batman Begins = 25th OW (rough adjustment to compensate for 3-Day vs 5-Day)
TDK = 1st
TDKR = 3rd (almost certainly would have been second if not for Aurora event)

BVS = 7th 

The Batman = ??

 

[Porthos]

19 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

My synthetic 3D is 55.2

 

Quote

27	Pearl Harbor	BV	$59,078,912	29.8%	3,214	$18,381	$198,542,554	5/25/2001
28	Hannibal	MGM	$58,003,121	35.1%	3,230	$17,957	$165,092,268	2/09/2001
29	Mission: Impossible II	Par.	$57,845,297	26.9%	3,653	$15,835	$215,409,889	5/24/2000
30	Toy Story 2	BV	$57,388,839	23.3%	3,236	$17,734	$245,852,179	11/24/1999
31	How the Grinch Stole Christmas	Uni.	$55,082,330	21.2%	3,127	$17,615	$260,044,825	11/17/2000
32	Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me	NL	$54,917,604	26.7%	3,312	$16,581	$206,040,086	6/11/1999
33	X-Men	Fox	$54,471,475	34.6%	3,025	$18,007	$157,299,717	7/14/2000
34	Scooby-Doo	WB	$54,155,312	35.3%	3,447	$15,710	$153,294,164	6/14/2002
35	Batman Forever	WB	$52,784,433	28.7%	2,842	$18,572	$184,031,112	6/16/1995

 

#31, juuuuust ahead of How the Grinch Stole Christmas.

 

#31 currently:

 

Quote

27	Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2	$146,510,104	$389,813,101	37.6%	4,347	$33,703	May 5, 2017	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
28	The Twilight Saga: New Moon	$142,839,137	$296,623,634	48.2%	4,024	$35,496	Nov 20, 2009	Summit Entertainment
29	The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2	$141,067,634	$292,324,737	48.3%	4,070	$34,660	Nov 16, 2012	Lionsgate
30	The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 1	$138,122,261	$281,287,133	49.1%	4,061	$34,011	Nov 18, 2011	Summit Entertainment
31	Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest	$135,634,554	$423,315,812	32%	4,133	$32,817	Jul 7, 2006	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
32	Finding Dory	$135,060,273	$486,295,561	27.8%	4,305	$31,372	Jun 17, 2016	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
33	Suicide Squad	$133,682,248	$325,100,054	41.1%	4,255	$31,417	Aug 5, 2016	Warner Bros.
34	Deadpool	$132,434,639	$363,070,709	36.5%	3,558	$37,221	Feb 12, 2016	Twentieth Century Fox

 

Twilight 4 Part 1: 138.1m

 

POTC:DMC: 135.6m

 

(derp added up by one when figuring placement when I shouldn't have)

 

 

Edited January 23, 2022 by Porthos

[Joyous Legion]

7 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

My synthetic 3D is 55.2

#33, translates 135M. I'll go to 140 from ATP with upside to 170 from pent up.

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

Hate to break this to you, Legion, but Batman Begins was a 5 day opener.    It was at 72.9m by the end of OW.

Hmm. So it wasn't as bad as it is assumed to be. 

 

7 days was 84.8M. For a June 2005 release, that would be around 60M OW. That's considerably better than 49.

 

 

Edited January 23, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

#33, translates 135M. I'll go to 140 from ATP with upside to 170 from pent up.

 

I think you're counting Fantastic 4 in there ($56m) and War of the Worlds (64.9m), both of which released after Batman Begins (the wayback machine doesn't capture every week).  Though as I look again, I should have said it was at #31 myself as I added upward by one when I shouldn't have.

[Joyous Legion]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I think you're counting Fantastic 4 in there ($56m) and War of the Worlds (64.9m), both of which released after Batman Begins (the wayback machine doesn't capture every week).  Though as I look again, I should have said it was at #31 myself as I added upward by one when I shouldn't have.

I used xxr's link, but 135-137ish seems pretty safe.   

 

In any case the 5day discovery does materially affect my thinking. 140-170 instead of 120-150 feels right and brings me close to what people have been thinking from other approaches as a happy coincidence.

Edited January 23, 2022 by Product Driven Legion

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Product Driven Legion said:

I used xxr's link,

 

Yeah, xxr's link was for July 13th, nearly a month after BB released.  The link I originally used was June 20th, which was the Monday after OW.  Just unlucky enough that it was before actuals came in later that day.

[grey ghost]

Batman Begins had a different environment. 

 

The last Batman movie was Batman and Robin and casuals were luke warm in anticipation for a grounded Batman movie.

 

The Batman will have a huge audience who fondly remember grounded Batman movies (TDK trilogy, Joker).

 

And grounded Batman material is by far the most popular with Joker and TDKR both crossing a billion.

[Joyous Legion]

Since this is now the “chat about Batman OW while waiting for NWH huge Sat” waiting room, what are we thinking for IM?  
 

Maybe like 7x, so 20-25 previews?

[XXR & Friends]

1 minute ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Since this is now the “chat about Batman OW while waiting for NWH huge Sat” waiting room, what are we thinking for IM?  
 

Maybe like 7x, so 20-25 previews?

Yea that sounds about right, assuming it’s as good as we’re hearing and all that. Let’s say 6-8 full range. 
 

Bear

18 x 6 = $108M

 

Base 

23 x 7 = $161M

 

Bull

28 x 8 = $224M

[Tokugennumataka]

Curious if Super Bowl on day before Valentine's will have any perceptible effect on huge Sunday drops. 

[EmpireCity]

$6.45 for Spider-Man

$5.25 for Scream

[Joyous Legion]

Bit on the low side for Sat bumps, still a great weekend.

[Tokugennumataka]

Needs 37% drop or better on Sunday to hit 14M. Seems doable. 

[druv10]

40 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

$6.45 for Spider-Man

$5.25 for Scream

Great for NWH down 26% from last week and need 37% drop on Sunday for 14M weekend. 

[SchumacherFTW]

1 hour ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Curious if Super Bowl on day before Valentine's will have any perceptible effect on huge Sunday drops. 

Would imagine Saturday goes up and Sunday goes to the normal superbowl low