Weekend Thread (1/21-23) | Asgard 2 says 3.5 Fri for Scream, 3.4 Spider-Man

[Legion Again]

Most 21st century weekend #1s: 

Avatar 7  

NWH 6

BP and Croods2 5

TFA/TDK/ROTK/Passion of Christ/FOTR/THG/Grinch (2000)/ JWTTJ/GotG/F7/Mockingjay2/Meet the Parents/The Martian 4   
 

Jumanji’s are wknds 3,4,5,7 so I think it, Avatar, and NWH are the only 7th weekend winners. Xmas movies winning late Jan.

Edited January 23, 2022 by Product Driven Legion

[Legion Again]

21st century consecutive top 5s:

Croods2 17

Avatar 12

Frozen 11

MBFGW 10

TFA 9

Lotta stuff 8

 

NWH gonna be 8 I guess but hopefully 9

[EmpireCity]

People are now thinking it won't hit $100m opening weekend?

 

What??  Did I miss something??

[EmpireCity]

Venom 2 just did $90m+ and people are questioning if The Batman is going to hit $100m? 

 

Tell me again if I missed something.  

[fabiopazzo2]

Only 100M for The Batman?? What????

 

anything below 120M is a flop for The most iconic DC character

 

 

[EmpireCity]

The running time means almost nothing given that this will have an insane amount of screen space.  Even a 10 screen location will have at least 5 screens running full schedules for this.  You might have 8+ at a larger theater.  

[grey ghost]

There are movies that people will risk covid and pack theaters.

 

The Batman is one of those movies.

 

150+ m OW.

 

Predictions under Thor Ragnarok are a joke.

[KP1025]

1 hour ago, Product Driven Legion said:

21st century consecutive top 5s:

Croods2 17

Avatar 12

Frozen 11

MBFGW 10

TFA 9

Lotta stuff 8

 

NWH gonna be 8 I guess but hopefully 9

 

Croods 2 probably should have an asterisk besides it but still very impressive nonetheless. 

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

The running time means almost nothing given that this will have an insane amount of screen space.  Even a 10 screen location will have at least 5 screens running full schedules for this.  You might have 8+ at a larger theater.  

There’s definitely no screen capacity issue, but there are people who would be able to fit a 2.5 hr excursions into their life that weekend but not a 3.5 hour one — or people who just don’t like the bladder implications.    
 

Nobody who’s extremely hyped will be turned about, but an important part of any OW is the not-extremely-hyped people. I think a couple % hit there is not outlandish.

Edited January 23, 2022 by Product Driven Legion

[EmpireCity]

1 minute ago, Product Driven Legion said:

There’s definitely no screen capacity issue, but there are people who would be able to fit a 2.5 hr excursions into their life that weekend but not a 3.5 hour one — or people who just don’t like bladder implications.

 

That didn't hurt a number of movies throughout the years, including Endgame.  If people are excited to see it, they are going to go and will just plan a bathroom break.  

[Lion Roar]

If The Batman opens under $125m I'd consider that a huge disappointment. Should easily do $150m+ OW with the amount of hype that it has. March record definitely within reach with good reviews and WoM.  

[EmpireCity]

I mean, wasn't it just a few weeks ago we were talking $200m+ opening and now multiple people are questioning it even getting $100m?  All because of running time?

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

People are now thinking it won't hit $100m opening weekend?

 

What??  Did I miss something??

 

I don't think many people here, if anyone for that matter, is doubting 100m OW, FWIW.  Do think that @Product Driven Legion is one of the more bearish people here, though.  And even he is penciling in at 120-ish right now.

 

Speaking of which, Legion, kinda curious on your thoughts as to why you're on the relatively low end for this considering you've been more hyped up for other recent CBM fare.  Just solo/non-connected movie from a franchise that has had some hits and misses or something deeper at play?  Coz, gotta tell you, most of the trends I see point this to being more than 120m OW.

[EmpireCity]

On top of this, the early word is that it is very very good.  

[Eric Duncan]

1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

I mean, wasn't it just a few weeks ago we were talking $200m+ opening and now multiple people are questioning it even getting $100m?  All because of running time?

I mean it's only like...one person. Even Legion doesn't agree with sub-100M, just sees that scenario. I guess that means two people, but it's not like that's a crazy amount.

[Legion Again]

12 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

That didn't hurt a number of movies throughout the years, including Endgame.  If people are excited to see it, they are going to go and will just plan a bathroom break.  

Eh, it’s pretty hard to say. Being harder to fit into someone’s schedule probably did hurt endgame on the margin — how could it not? Titanic, rotk, etc etc.   

 

Now you’re right that really long movies are often some of the best performers of all time despite that, so it’s not a big issue by any means. But a lot of the time I think that’s a common confounder — the movie is very “epic” (either some historical epic or franchise finale) which both generates a long ass runtime and a very high desire to see it, which more than outweighs any more direct causal harms from being mega long.   
 

If Batman feels like a movie that needed to be 3 hours, I agree it’ll do gangbusters according to historical precedent. If it feels like a movie that’s 3 hours but didn’t need to be, that’s where you can have issues on net.

Edited January 23, 2022 by Product Driven Legion

[Legion Again]

Also fwiw the 200 talk was way crazier than sub 100 talk (though Eric is correct I don’t buy sub 100 to begin with) 😛

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, Product Driven Legion said:

Also fwiw the 200 talk was way crazier than sub 100 talk (though Eric is correct I don’t buy sub 100 to begin with) 😛

 

Mathematically I suppose that's true (IMO) since my prediction is marginally closer to 100 than 200. In practice however, I would be more surprised with sub-100 than I would 200. 

[Legion Again]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I don't think many people here, if anyone for that matter, is doubting 100m OW, FWIW.  Do think that @Product Driven Legion is one of the more bearish people here, though.  And even he is penciling in at 120-ish right now.

 

Speaking of which, Legion, kinda curious on your thoughts as to why you're on the relatively low end for this considering you've been more hyped up for other recent CBM fare.  Just solo/non-connected movie from a franchise that has had some hits and misses or something deeper at play?  Coz, gotta tell you, most of the trends I see point this to being more than 120m OW.

I don’t really have a pulse on DC movies as much, so it’s not as confident a number in the first place as I had for e.g. NWH, SC etc. Mostly I feel like there is some character/brand damage from the last two movies Batman starred in and despite the new iteration seeming to excite people a lot that will still have some role. As a historical comp Batman Begins has felt very natural from the beginning to me, so my high expectations have always been more for legs and Batman 2.

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, RiddlerXXR said:

 

Mathematically I suppose that's true (IMO) since my prediction is marginally closer to 100 than 200. In practice however, I would be more surprised with sub-100 than I would 200. 

The threshold is 141.4M fwiw (in terms of being closer to 200 in %)