94th Academy Awards Discussion Thread | WHAT JUST HAPPENED

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

31 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Beautiful, just beautiful

 

 

Just how much is the Academy hating their decision right now? Brigading and trolling is ongoing

 

This was entirely predictable to anyone even vaguely familiar with social media. Clearly, no one in charge at ABC/AMPAS...

 

Quote

Cabello fans were simply flooding the Academy’s Fan Fave site. So were Johnny Depp’s, whose barely released and hardly seen indie drama Minimata was dropped into a theater finally after long legal delays in order to even qualify, but which received no attention from Oscar voters. That is defiantly not the case for Depp fans, one of whom tweeted “Let’s do it for Johnny.” Wouldn’t that be an Oscar moment for the ages if Minimata pulls it out? Even its director Andrew Levitas was tweeting it is his #OscarsFanFavorite.

 

At least I remember the 2021 Cinderella being a thing: there was some James Corden-related outrage when it dropped, but it had a good showing on the Nielsen streaming chart a few weeks later. That Johnny Depp thing? I am not really a "this movie does not exist" sort of person, but it's made to describe stuff like that...

[filmlover]

Howling at the thought of Camilla Cabello showing up to accept what's basically supposed to be a consolation prize for Marvel.

 

Stans trying to game the system with a troll pick could've been seen coming from outer space.

[grim22]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Howling at the thought of Camilla Cabello showing up to accept what's basically supposed to be a consolation prize for Marvel.

 

Stans trying to game the system with a troll pick could've been seen coming from outer space.

 

 

1 hour ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

 

This was entirely predictable to anyone even vaguely familiar with social media. Clearly, no one in charge at ABC/AMPAS...

 

 

At least I remember the 2021 Cinderella being a thing: there was some James Corden-related outrage when it dropped, but it had a good showing on the Nielsen streaming chart a few weeks later. That Johnny Depp thing? I am not really a "this movie does not exist" sort of person, but it's made to describe stuff like that...

 

Edited to add:

 

They better kick off the show with this

 

 

 

[titanic2187]

On 2/15/2022 at 12:34 PM, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Power of the Dog has worse audience scores and WOM than any current contender and it’s the frontrunner! Not to mention, a STREAMING film. 60% all audience on Rotten Tomatoes (verified has less than 50 votes), 6.9 IMDB. Nothing they do will change the outcome of ceremony. Having Wanda Sykes host isn’t going to add a dozen million viewers. Having a Twitter poll won’t thread needle since pop culture is consumed differently. Just focus on the musical numbers and have a host that isn’t gimmicky and hope for the best. 

Also, the past 40 reviews posted on RT, 8 of it are rotten which translate 80% fresh, it is a downward trend too since the average is 93%

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

3 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Also, the past 40 reviews posted on RT, 8 of it are rotten which translate 80% fresh, it is a downward trend too since the average is 93%

The disparity continues to grow and being the frontrunner never helps. 

 

Still, it is the only nominee that didn't underperform and has everything necessary to win. Reminds me of Shape of Water a bit. It's not a typical consensus ballot winner and the audience scores were weak but it was carried by the weight of its acclaimed director and split the difference between inconsistent competition-- Three Billboards (also divisive, missed director), Lady Bird and Get Out (hip, cool movies but missed Editing+ too female/too horror), Dunkirk (cold, clinical Nolan war film with no acting or writing mention). 

 

And if you look deeper at the audience reception for the contenders this year outside of Power of the Dog, there's not much separation. If anything, CODA is the biggest consensus audience favorite. But a BP win is extremely unlikely given all the guild misses. Sure it can win SAG but a WGA win will be meaningless since Power of Dog is not eligible there. It cannot win the ACE for Editing and has no other craft guild nominations. Industry itself doesn't seem to love the movie across the boards despite the broad audience support. So what's next? Judging by these metrics... Dune or King Richard?

 

Dune is a tempting prospect--an acclaimed director adapting a nearly unfilmable book and silencing the doubt by delivering one of the year's biggest hits. Despite being sci-fi, it scores alongside genuine emotional crowdpleasers. That said, Villeneuve's snub is bizarre and the film lacks any acting support (even Return of the Rings won the SAG). Therefore, it's probably another Mad Max that wins the technicals only. Dune 2 is when the film will be rewarded.

 

King Richard has the highest 8/10 IMDB average which would indicate it places on majority of 3rd place ballots. It's a tight second for 4/5 Letterboxd average behind Coda (again, the real consensus fave) and slightly ahead of West Side Story. Licorice Pizza/Dune are tight and close after. Also worth noting how CLOSE Licorice Pizza is to West Side Story, the only place it fails is Rotten Tomatoes but on IMDB and Letterboxd, they're neck/neck in terms of 2nd and 3rd place votes (Licorice Pizza having the edge there). But the problem is both films are lacking a major nomination--Editing.

 

It's important to point out that despite winning TIFF and being anointed crowdpleaser of the year... Belfast... isn't? Bit lower overall average than King Richard on IMDB--near identical 10/10 average, slightly higher in 9/10 votes, but drastically lower in 8/10. Same average among aged 45+ voters yet King Richard oddly scores better with non-US voters. On Letterboxd, they're identical in 5/5, nearly the same in 4.5 with Belfast having the edge, yet again King Richard crushes it in 3rd place. And on Rotten Tomatoes, it's no contest King Richard overwhelms it.

 

So, King Richard a stealth BP contender? Well, it's a frontrunner for an acting award which helps. However, the film is missing DGA/Directing. Only 2 films in the entire 74 year history have won Best Picture without DGA (Hamlet in 1948, the first ceremony) and Driving Ms. Daisy in 1989. Even films that were snubbed for Directing at Oscar made DGA such as Argo and Green Book. Not only that but King Richard missed the BAFTA Film, and since 1999 when the BAFTA was moved to pre-Oscars only Million Dollar Baby (2004) won BP without BAFTA. (Million Dollar Baby received 0 nominations, meaning it was not submitted/late/ineligible, etc). While it could win SAG, that's a lot to overcome. PGA is extremely unlikely as a result of this and WGA will be difficult to pull off (even Green Book lost there).

 

Which brings us back to Belfast. As you can see, it's not performing to the standards of usual TIFF winners. Though admittedly, this is an unusual year. That said, it inexplicably missed Editing nomination. While Editing is a bit easier to overcome than a DGA miss (10 films won BP without Editing in the 93 year history of Academy), that remains a major blow since previous TIFF winners such as Jojo Rabbit, Green Book, and Three Billboards made Editing. Last film to win without Editing was Birdman but that was designed to appear as one-take (possibly alienating the branch ala 1917 did) and Birdman overcame it by nearly sweeping the guilds--PGA+DGA+SAG+ADG+ASC+CDG. It would have won WGA, too, if eligible. Can Belfast sweep the guilds? Well, it surely isn't winning ACE. It won't win ASC, either, since it was Cinematography snubbed. Bye bye DGA, a Director isn't winning without those. It wasn't nominated by ADG or CDG. It isn't WGA eligible but we've seen films such as Green Book and Chicago 7 lose there so that isn't a guarantee. That leaves SAG and PGA... can it truly win PGA without a lot of guilds or DGA? Yes, Green Book did but Roma was more divisive than Power of Dog (missed Editing) and Green Book had won Globe (not a guild but still a win). Other films to win PGA without DGA: The Big Short (WGA+ACE), Little Miss Sunshine (SAG+WGA), Aviator (BAFTA+Globe+ACE), Moulin Rogue (ACE+ADG+Globe),  Gladiator (Globe+BAFTA+ACE+ADG), Crying Game (WGA), Driving Ms. Daisy (Globe+WGA)... 5 lost BP. The majority of these were pre-preferential balloting, as well. SAG has also become very meaningless with PGA (Chicago 7, Parasite, Black Panther, Three Billboards, Hidden Figures, Spotlight, American Hustle, The Help, Inglourious Basterds). So yes, I'm not feeling a PGA win for Belfast. And if it's not winning PGA, I see no reason to predict it as a Picture upset like Parasite or Moonlight.

 

I'd say maybe Branagh's narrative helps keep it a solid 2nd or 3rd and maybe it wins Screenplay (hopefully not over PTA) but Power of the Dog it is... by default. 

 

Belfast (no Editing)

7.4 IMDB. 10(10.9%). 9(14.1%). 8(28.3%). 1.(1.2%). 7.5 average for 45+ age voters. 7.3 average for non-US voters

3.5 Letterboxd. 5 (7%). 4.5 (10%). 4 (26%)

92% Rotten Tomatoes verified audience. 4.5 average. 86% all audience. 4.2 average.

 

Coda (no Directing, Editing)

8.1 IMDB. 10(20%). 9(23.9%). 8(32.1%). 1(.6%). 8.0 average for 45+ age voters. 7.9 average for non-US voters.

3.9 Letterboxd. 5 (13%). 4.5 (16%). 4 (35%). 

93% Rotten Tomatoes audience. 4.4 average. 

 

Don't Look Up (no Directing, acting)

7.2 IMDB. 10 (10.7%). 9 (12.3%). 8 (26.6%). 1 (2.3%). 7.2 average for 45+ age voters. 7.2 average for non-US voters.

3.2 Letterboxd. 5 (5%). 4.5 (4%). 4 (20%).

78% Rotten Tomatoes verified audience. 4 average. 73% Rotten Tomatoes all audience. 3.8 average.

 

Drive My Car (no guilds, no Editing, no acting)

7.8 IMDB. 10 (12.6%). 9 (21.1%). 8 (29.1%). 1 (1.5%). 7.6 average for 45+ age voters. 7.7 average for non-US voters.

4.2 Letterboxd. 5 (24%). 4.5 (27%). 4 (29%). 

81% Rotten Tomatoes audience. 4 average.

 

Dune (no Directing, acting)

8.1 IMDB. 10 (21.2%). 9 (25.9%). 8 (26.9%). 1 (1.4%). 7.9 average for 45+ age voters. 8.0 average for non-US voters.

4.0 Letterboxd. 5 (20%). 4.5 (21%). 4 (31%). 

90% Rotten Tomatoes audience verified. 4.5 average. 86% all audience. 4.3 average.

 

King Richard (no directing)

7.6 IMDB. 10 (10.9%). 9 (13.7%). 8 (35.6%) 1 (1.6%). 7.5 average for 45+ age voters. 7.5 average for non-US voters.

3.7 Letterboxd. 5 (7%). 4.5 (9%). 4 (34%). 

98% Rotten Tomatoes audience verified. 4.7 average. 92% all audience. 4.4 average.

 

Licorice Pizza (no Editing, acting)

7.8 IMDB. 10 (12.5%). 9 (19.2%). 8 (30.3%). 1 (2.7%). 7.5 average for 45+ age voters. 7.7 average for non-US voters.

3.9 Letterboxd. 5 (15%). 4.5 (20%). 4 (31%). 

66% Rotten Tomatoes audience verified. 3.6 average. 63% all audience. 3.4 average.

 

West Side Story (no Editing, writing)

7.8 IMDB. 10 (20.8%). 9 (19.3%). 8 (25.2%). 1 (4.2%). 7.8 average for 45+ age voters. 7.6 average for non-US voters.

4.0 Letterboxd. 5 (17%). 4.5 (20%). 4 (32%). 

94% verified Rotten Tomatoes audience. 4.6 average. 89% all audience. 4.4 average.

[filmlover]

(Mamma Mia) Here we go again!

 

 

Oscars: Several Awards Won’t Be Telecast Live This Year (Exclusive) https://t.co/qPBYwPWr3Y

— The Hollywood Reporter (@THR) February 22, 2022

[grim22]

17 minutes ago, filmlover said:

(Mamma Mia) Here we go again!

 

 

 

 

Pretty much

 

 

Telecast the awards, skip the musical numbers

 

 

[filmlover]

I know it's a broken record point of view to share by now but as long as they continue to adhere to these outdated contracts, the day the ABC deal ends can't come fast enough for the sake of the Oscars (since there's zero chance they'll be renewing under the same terms).

[lorddemaxus]

dumbfuck Academy wants more ratings but shafts the categories that the biggest BP nominee of the year was nominated for and will mostly win.

[Morieris]

From Deadline;

Quote

and the live broadcast should end – yes, with the Best Picture category – at the three-hour mark.

 

 

I like the admission that it's still going to be 3 hours with these changes.

 

Quote

Instead, the in-person ceremony at the Dolby Theatre will begin one hour earlier to present eight awards categories before the live telecast starts.

 

So they just made it...longer? Why not keep it the old way? It's not as if they can pretend it's for 'health, safety, and distancing'.

 

 

[lorddemaxus]

I wonder if VFX is still being kept in because it's the only one where Spider-man got nominated lol.

[filmlover]

Honestly between this and that ill-conceived Twitter winner thing (they really had the impression that the MCU fanbase was devoted enough to secure a win only to discover that it was no match for a flop vehicle for a pop star lmao), it's like they really are just doing everything they can to appeal to an audience that is simply never, ever going to be won over to the point of insanity. You're not getting 40 million viewers ever again no matter what you do, Academy/ABC.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Why eliminate the categories where Dune will win? Why eliminate a category Encanto was nominated in? Why eliminate the live moment of Riz Ahmed winning Live Action short?

 

The average viewer has given up on the Oscar ceremony. They consume media differently via Twitter. Substituting watching Hans Zimmer winning an Oscar in favor of Amy Schumer doing some stupid sketch like Jimmy Kimmel will not move the needle of interest. It will inadvertently drive away the only audience they have left, thus finally reaching irrelevance 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

 

[Eric is Anxious]

Laura Dern would never let this slide.

[grim22]

1 hour ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Why eliminate the categories where Dune will win? Why eliminate a category Encanto was nominated in? Why eliminate the live moment of Riz Ahmed winning Live Action short?

 

The average viewer has given up on the Oscar ceremony. They consume media differently via Twitter. Substituting watching Hans Zimmer winning an Oscar in favor of Amy Schumer doing some stupid sketch like Jimmy Kimmel will not move the needle of interest. It will inadvertently drive away the only audience they have left, thus finally reaching irrelevance 

 

The worse part is that the winners will be leaked before the telecast begins thanks to Twitter.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

 

[grim22]

17 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

 

 

 

[grim22]

It's just genuinely crazy that the Academy Awards decided the issue is the awards and not literally everything else. Last year's shit show happened because they really didn't give people anything to connect with the awards with the lack of clips and context around the nominees.

 

Seriously speaking, the ceremony needs to be more about the awards tbh. Make everything secondary to the awards - show everything, give examples for viewers, more clips less montages celebrating the movies or whatever nonsense just so they can get CBM clips in there. Cut out every song and dance number which isn't the nominated songs and allow the winners enough time to thank everyone they want to instead of playing them off after 30 seconds.

 

The Golden Globes worked because it was all about the awards (and corruption) with minimal random skits and stuff.

 

The sooner the ABC contract ends, the better for the Oscars as they won't be held to network tv requirements.

 

 

 

 

[Barnack]

To be fair I imagine you can find a giant list of people saying the show was too long and there were too many awards that people do not care about were taking too much time.

 

I am sure they really have little clue on what to do and what would help, but I imagine they have excellent data from some tv box in which category/number/host bit moment people tend to change channels the most.

 

At first I thought the categories where cut from the live telecast, that would have been quite extreme, that not the case at all ? They will be show during the live telecast in people home show, just pre-filmed and edited to save time.

 

Having the editing one in that list is quite the surprise, they must make the editing of those port elevate the product in exchange for losing the live announcement.

Edited February 23, 2022 by Barnack