Has Following the Box Office Lost Its Appeal and Luster?

[Flamengo81]

4 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

No it didn't lol

You would be surprised by how many people only know Pattinson as the "Twilight guy" that is "too skinny to be Batman" and that "DC ruined the character with that choice". The reception of the GA for his casting was far from benefitial to the movie box office. He now proved most of these people wrong for sure, but there was certainly a lot of people that turned their eyes for this movie because of that. 

[Eric is Quiet]

Moderation

 

Not The Batman thread

[Barnack]

If I go by my level of activity since 2020 (specially movie box office related) for sure it has to me.

 

There are many reasons I think for me, where there was a growth for a while than a plateau/regression

 

1) Movie box office (inflation adjusted is stopped to growth around 2017-2018, specially if we remove local Chinese production nothing against them and very nice for them, but not that fun to follow for me)

 

With obviously the domestic decline per capita on a solid trend, pre covid:

 

 

 

2) Release window:

 

Not just box office, but theatrical all around was way less interesting by the above.

 

 

3) Information explosion to a regression, we went to a world where information about the industry easy to acquire exploded with the Internet, cinemascore, daily box office and peaked with the Sony leak that was a direct windows into all the details and made us all "insiders" for a little while. Now we are back to the dark age of information, and it is not just access but it's very existance, how well a free to watch movie on a paid streaming platform did ? Who can have any idea, even the studio it's must be quite complicated to figure that out, you need to wait 3 months to know how much of the estimated new customer or retained customer are still there and what not.

 

4) Talked a lot but the product to follow to start with, specially if you are not invested much in the franchise war (or at all for me).

 

2010 release for example:

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/domestic/all-movies/cumulative/released-in-2010

 

Red, The Town, The Fighter, Social Network, Date Night, Black Swan, Salt, The Other guys, Shutter Island, King Speech, Little Focker, True Grit, Inception with the top from Pixar, Disney remake, Paramount super heroes, Summit Entertainment and a big Warner Brothers.

 

It rapidly concentrated:

https://www.redchalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Disney-vs-Comcast-1-min.png

 

We went from 7 entity able to do 10% or more in a good year (and about 5 able to actually win the year) to pretty much 4 of them virtually 1.1 with a shot to win a regular year.

2011:

1	Paramount Pictures	23	$1,966,886,567	248,031,092	19.33%
2	Warner Bros.	34	$1,829,445,272	230,699,278	17.98%
3	Sony Pictures	29	$1,270,723,280	160,242,517	12.49%
4	Walt Disney	18	$1,225,147,880	154,495,310	12.04%
5	Universal	18	$1,025,035,016	129,260,405	10.08%
6	20th Century Fox	19	$982,812,355	123,935,984	9.66%
7	Summit Entertainment	10	$413,522,970	52,146,650	4.06%

2012:

1	Sony Pictures	26	$1,796,852,200	225,735,189	16.35%
2	Warner Bros.	29	$1,679,495,537	210,991,887	15.28%
3	Walt Disney	18	$1,566,749,202	196,827,779	14.25%
4	Universal	17	$1,368,500,098	171,922,114	12.45%
5	Lionsgate	25	$1,267,018,113	159,173,116	11.53%
6	20th Century Fox	19	$1,030,117,301	129,411,713	9.37%
7	Paramount Pictures	22	$919,099,720	115,464,777	8.36%

 

 

In 2011-2012, Sony/paramount exchange the number 1

 

Universal, Fox, Liongates, WB, Walt Disney, Paramount, Sony all did a 10% or more year's

 

2019:

1	Walt Disney	13	$3,742,497,656	408,569,611	33.25%
2	Warner Bros.	43	$1,570,520,862	171,454,243	13.95%
3	Sony Pictures	24	$1,341,427,238	146,444,013	11.92%
4	Universal	26	$1,302,915,010	142,239,629	11.58%
5	Lionsgate	21	$797,851,162	87,101,645	7.09%
6	Paramount Pictures	11	$563,908,126	61,562,018	5.01%
7	20th Century Fox	13	$492,158,921	53,729,133	4.37%

 

 

It was not a bad year too, Knives Out, Us, Joker, The Upside, Hustlers, Downtown Abbey, Jumanji, It 2, the classic Pixar/Disney Animation, marvel doing well, John Wick 3, Rocket Man, Little Woman, Green Book, Glass, Ford V Ferrari, it did seem to go into a nice direction before COVID"

 

Edited April 19, 2022 by Barnack

[MOVIEGUY]

I really don't follow box office anymore. This is just the only movie-related forum I know lol

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Knives Out is probably the last amazing run for a movie of its kind we'll get for a long time. I was very happy about Little Women and 1917 did what it would have normally done but Knives Out was a shock and a surprise with holds fun to track. In 2018, Crazy Rich Asians was awesome, too. So it balanced out the dominance of Disney the way, like, Apatow hits balanced out the years of Harry Potter and Transformers

[Goffe]

I think the reason stopped caring is the abscence of big budget, well made spectales that seeked to entertain and provoke in equal ammounts. Well made, entertaining and thought provoking are keywords here. Those have become so rare and far between now. Even when they are here, there are either failures or not nearly as good as could have been (see: Dune). 

 

Pixar used to get me excited, but I still haven't seen Luca and their last movie even though I loved Soul. Harry Potter is my #1 series and I can't muster any exctiment for the last FB. Matt Reeves is great, but wasn't really interested going to the theaters to see Batman. After Tenet, I don't even know or am interested on what Nolan is doing next. Every single director that did good big budget movies have been disappointing with their stuff. Sam Raimi is next I'm sure.

 

Aging out of the hobby (following bo) might be part of the reason as well. I started in 2009 and I think I started losing interest with BvS's debacle. I come for movie news now, once every two weeks maybe? I used to post all day. 

[excel1]

10 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

The other factor, as some have mentioned, is that tracking and predicting the box office has become incredibly accurate once you get to pre-sales.  You see it every week in the tracking thread.  You aren't going to get any complete surprises at this point, the tracking is way too good.  

 

We also have multiple insiders that give numbers out and give them early and accurate.  There is no more waiting for Deadline or others to give you a hint.  They have pretty much stopped because guys like Charlie are beating the hell out of them.  

This is obviously near release, though. Also factoring into this is a bunch of studios taking VERY few risks.

 

If we had more original major-release content coming out, those are inherently much more difficult to predict - and fun to track. 

[filmlover]

Yes and no. The dominance of huge IP franchises along with the rise of budgets in general has clearly had an impact across various genres that were once easily profitable (especially in the COVID landscape, where even indies have seen their budgets go up due to protocols), but the overall rise of streaming has played a part and made it easier for studios to easily pass on projects they're not nearly as confident in. Take that Kevin Hart/Woody Harrelson action comedy that Sony just sold to Netflix, for example. In another era, it would be the kind of movie that would likely do well at the box office based on the concept of seeing two big names together alone even with garbage reviews, especially in the dead zone August slot it was slated in. But now? Sold to and dumped on a streaming service.

[excel1]

11 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

I say this with all due respect, but what a completely miserable thread and most of you would be well served to find a different hobby if it makes you this miserable.  It reminds me of a lot of sports writers that clearly are depressed by or hate the very thing they are paid to cover and supposedly love.  

 

Thread can be both miserable and highly relevant. Many of us miss old Hollywood which was much more creative and artistic. Sure, there is some creativity here and there, but it is not close to what is once was. People missing the summers where it truly unknown how well certain projects would fare are justified in feeling that way. 

[AniNate]

Tbh artistically the past year has left plenty of room for unknowns. I didn't even know what Everything Everywhere All at Once was until it premiered at SXSW and now it's one of my favorite movies of the past decade. Got a couple of really well reviewed indies coming out this weekend plus an auteur original horror film releasing in May. Honestly I feel like a lot of the loudest complainers about "no originality" aren't the ones who actually try to support it where it still exists.

[excel1]

3 hours ago, AniNate said:

Tbh artistically the past year has left plenty of room for unknowns. I didn't even know what Everything Everywhere All at Once was until it premiered at SXSW and now it's one of my favorite movies of the past decade. Got a couple of really well reviewed indies coming out this weekend plus an auteur original horror film releasing in May. Honestly I feel like a lot of the loudest complainers about "no originality" aren't the ones who actually try to support it where it still exists.

 

Doesn't change that Hollywood is a largely risk-free place these days. 

[watcher1232]

4 hours ago, excel1 said:

 

Doesn't change that Hollywood is a largely risk-free place these days. 

You definitely only watch blockbusters and nothing else.

[excel1]

1 hour ago, watcher1232 said:

You definitely only watch blockbusters and nothing else.

 

The risks used to be blockbusters, bud.

[AniNate]

40 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

The risks used to be blockbusters, bud.

They certainly won't be if you don't even watch the small budget originals

[Krissykins]

I still enjoy it, this’ll be my 20th year following the box office properly. 
 

I’ve obviously always found horror and midrange runs more interesting. With the huge ones my eyes glaze over and I eventually stop paying attention to them. Usually because I find those films a bit less interesting/memorable. 

 

But I know some people only enjoy the huge successes. 

[watcher1232]

6 hours ago, excel1 said:

 

The risks used to be blockbusters, bud.

Only in the 70s really and that's if we're being technical on what's a blockbuster. It's just that instead of IP it was star power.

[Barnack]

Without a failure rate over time, it is hard to really judge, look at the last regular year 2019, how much of your own money would have put into Alita, Gemini man, Terminator Dark Fate, Dark Phoenix, Men in black international, 1917, Cats, Ford V Ferrari,  if you start to get back on your invested post break event point, a little $25,000 and I feel like all of a sudden they would start like taking quite the risk, more than any other investment you have made.

 

What changed is the amount of relatively safe bet, Once Upon a Time.... in Hollywood or really safe bet like Hobbs&Shaw, Shazam or just safer than treasury bound like Avengers, Star Wars, Lion King, Toy story 4.

 

Dolittle/Space Jam/Dune / Jungle Cruise / Matrix 4 were risk even if they were IP attach or quite the genre/star combo. There is different between a risk and an inspired/ambitious one. Going large budget with the John Wick would be a risk, that people would take time to greenlight.

[TomCruiseTop]

I started following the box office when Alien came out. It's as fun to me as it ever was but I never went into the insane amount of detail on it that many here do. I think the key to enjoying it continuously is to not become too obsessed or you burn out. That and supporting the King.

[dudalb]

A few huge IP's so dominating the box office scene has made it less interesting for me.

I deplore that the mid level "serious" film has almost vanished from theaters. I fully suspect that within a few years,only big budget blockbusters will be in theaters.

Streaming is already having a sizable impact on the size of the film going audience overall and this will just grow. It will , in the end, reduce theater going more then anything since the advent of television.

I honeslty think the only thing Covid did was just speed up the move to streaming. It would have happened anyway, but would have taken longer.

Things are not going back to the way they were pre 2020 in terms of the overall audience. Yes, some films will still very well in tehaters, but the overall trend will be downward.

 

[dudalb]

On 4/18/2022 at 11:45 AM, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

No it didn't lol

Hell, people forget how long it took Leo Di Capio to drop the Titanic image and get some respect as a serious actor.

Patterson was not more ridiculed for Twilight then Leo was for Titanic. It was cool to despise him for a number of years.