Weekend Thread (4/29-5/2) | Our Annual Late April Calm Before the Storm

[Legion Again]

Just now, MultiverseXXR said:

 

Mmhmm there's not streaming bubble. Theaters aren't dying but streaming is only going to get stronger. 

Netflix shareholders will be glad to hear this

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, Illuminegion Confirmed said:

Netflix shareholders will be glad to hear this

 

Netflix is their own enemy and even with the recent minuscule retraction, it'll still expand over the next 5-10 years. 

[Legion Again]

16 minutes ago, MultiverseXXR said:

 

Netflix is their own enemy and even with the recent minuscule retraction, it'll still expand over the next 5-10 years. 

Miniscule? It’s down 72% in 6 months, that’s absolutely gargantuan.   
 

Will it probably grow over 5-10 years of course, stocks go up over the long run as the economy generally does (especially ones currently in a long plunge). Will it ever regain a market cap/gdp or market cap/S&P that it had just recently — I am skeptical. Other companies in streaming have a lot of other business whose success are to some extent negatively correlated with streaming fortunes, whereas Netflix is a pure streamer. Some of their recent woes are that they were the first mover, furthest along in the growth curve, and so first to run into issues actually trying to make the content spend and pricing power dance work out with a largely mature sub base. But these same issues are waiting in the wings for other streamers not so far down the road, and most of them are not gonna end up winners.

Edited May 1, 2022 by Illuminegion Confirmed

[XXR vs XXR]

14 minutes ago, Illuminegion Confirmed said:

It’s down 72% in 6 months,

 

I'm talking about subscriber count. Stock prices are based on feelings and whims.

 

To be clear, my comment on streaming growth was as an overall industry.

[Legion Again]

8 minutes ago, MultiverseXXR said:

 

I'm talking about subscriber count. Stock prices are based on feelings and whims.

 

To be clear, my comment on streaming growth was as an overall industry.

A miniscule subscriber count drop is much less informative than the massive stock drop. Markets aren’t perfectly rational or anything but it’s the number that actually has info about what their current financial outlook is vs what it seemed like recently.     
 

Netflix isn’t the industry, but it’s a huge chunk of it and a harbinger for the rest in some ways (as I said, they aren’t fated to follow its path exactly but many of the challenges generalize).

Edited May 1, 2022 by Illuminegion Confirmed

[Mulder]

42 minutes ago, MultiverseXXR said:

 

Mmhmm there's not streaming bubble. Theaters aren't dying but streaming is only going to get stronger. 

Netflix's issues and a lot of industry insiders are saying otherwise.

[XXR vs XXR]

5 minutes ago, Illuminegion Confirmed said:

A miniscule subscriber count drop is much less informative than the massive stock drop. Markets aren’t perfectly rational or anything but it’s the number that actually has info about what their current financial outlook is vs what it seemed like recently.     
 

Netflix isn’t the industry, but it’s a huge chunk of it and a harbinger for the rest in some ways (as I said, they aren’t fated to follow its path exactly but many of the challenges generalize).

 

Subscriber count is far more important to the health of a streaming company than stock price. Revenue + EBITDA are what matter, in the end. Netflix may have peaked in subscribers (though I don't think so) but the streaming market as a whole definitely hasn't plateaued yet. The stock adjustments we've seen in the last 4 months are just the rose colored glasses coming off but the industry will be fine. 

 

The only way streaming dies is if created visual media dies and since humans still have eyeballs and "Ready Player One" isn't real, I think it's gonna be fine. 

[Legion Again]

Strong derby weekend, currently got 7 players above 91%. Might be able to get 95% cracked with  actuals, or at least 95% holdover score.

Edited May 1, 2022 by Illuminegion Confirmed

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, MultiverseXXR said:

Subscriber count is far more important to the health of a streaming company than stock price.

Nah, can’t agree with this, seems very silly.  
 

4 minutes ago, MultiverseXXR said:

Revenue + EBITDA are what matter, in the end.

This seems a lot more defensible, but the issue is still that it’s a present measure, not forward looking.   
 

5 minutes ago, MultiverseXXR said:

Netflix may have peaked in subscribers (though I don't think so) but the streaming market as a whole definitely hasn't plateaued yet.

Of course, no ones saying it did.

6 minutes ago, MultiverseXXR said:

The stock adjustments we've seen in the last 4 months are just the rose colored glasses coming off but the industry will be fine. 

Agreed here.

 

6 minutes ago, MultiverseXXR said:

The only way streaming dies is if created visual media dies and since humans still have eyeballs and "Ready Player One" isn't real, I think it's gonna be fine. 

Again, seems like kind of a motte-and-bailey. No one’s saying the industry will die. 

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, Illuminegion Confirmed said:

Strong derby weekend, currently got 7 players above 91%. Might be able to get 95% cracked with  actuals, or at least 95% holdover score.

Currently the highest weekly score is 93.892 from @Sandro Mazzola in Wk5 and the highest holdover score is 95.497 from myself in Wk4. 

[XXR vs XXR]

15 minutes ago, Illuminegion Confirmed said:

Nah, can’t agree with this, seems very silly.  

 

Subscriber count (the only thing that generates revenue and keeps the company running) for a streaming company isn't more important than stock price? Right.....

 

18 minutes ago, Illuminegion Confirmed said:

This seems a lot more defensible, but the issue is still that it’s a present measure, not forward looking.   

 

Netflix grew 10% Q1 2022 but the stock still tanked because of forward looking statements. So a year from now if it's still growing at a 10% clip, the forward looking statements meant nothing?

 

19 minutes ago, Illuminegion Confirmed said:

Of course, no ones saying it did.

 

19 minutes ago, Illuminegion Confirmed said:

Again, seems like kind of a motte-and-bailey. No one’s saying the industry will die. 

 

My initial response (to Mulder) was to the fact that streaming would be fine and continue forward vs his statement of the industry regressing. If you agreed from the get-go, then all of your replies were......out of boredom? 

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, MultiverseXXR said:

Subscriber count (the only thing that generates revenue and keeps the company running) for a streaming company isn't more important than stock price? Right.....

Yes, it is right. 
 

 

7 minutes ago, MultiverseXXR said:

Netflix grew 10% Q1 2022 but the stock still tanked because of forward looking statements. So a year from now if it's still growing at a 10% clip, the forward looking statements meant nothing?

If things are different in the future they will be different. What matters is the present expectations of the future, not one possible hypothetical future expectation of the future.

 

7 minutes ago, MultiverseXXR said:

My initial response (to Mulder) was to the fact that streaming would be fine and continue forward vs his statement of the industry regressing. If you agreed from the get-go, then all of your replies were......out of boredom

They said there was a bubble. You said there wasn’t. I think there is. My replies are out of disagreement!  
 

Your comment about rose-colored glasses seems to suggest this is more of a “you agreed with us all along and misspoke” situation than vice versa. Rose colored glasses off== bubble popping.

Edited May 1, 2022 by Illuminegion Confirmed

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, Illuminegion Confirmed said:

Yes, it is right. 

 

4 minutes ago, Illuminegion Confirmed said:

If things are different in the future they will be different. What matters is the present expectations of the future, not one possible hypothetical future expectation of the future.

 

 

Seems like a stock traders mentality VS a business owners mentality. More worried about intangibles than tangibles. 

 

6 minutes ago, Illuminegion Confirmed said:

They said there was a bubble. You said there wasn’t. I think there is. My replies are out of disagreement!  
 

Your comment about rose-colored glasses seems to suggest this is more of a “you agreed with us all along and misspoke” situation than vice versa. Rose colored glasses off== bubble popping.

 

My "not a bubble" comment was in regards to actual industry growth and not stock price. I took Mulder's comment to be discussing that since all of the preceding comments about the subject where in regard to how the GA is now consuming visual media and how the audience has moved towards streaming. None of the past looking statements would indicate to me that anyone was discussing stock prices until your comment about the 72% price drop. 

[SLAM!]

It actually kind of stinks that Memory isn’t doing well. Liam Neeson’s sort of losing his place at the box office now and it’s sad to see. 😔

[Eric Duncan]

 

[Nikostar]

17 minutes ago, SLAM! said:

It actually kind of stinks that Memory isn’t doing well. Liam Neeson’s sort of losing his place at the box office now and it’s sad to see. 😔

He has not made an hit since Taken 3 and every film he done since then screams straight to DVD Quality. 

[Legion Again]

23 minutes ago, MultiverseXXR said:

Seems like a stock traders mentality VS a business owners mentality. More worried about intangibles than tangibles. 

I can assure you 100% that streaming “business owners mentality” are more worried about stock price developments than their current sub counts, because what they care about is eventual sub count*(rev/sub-cost/sub) and stock price has more to do with that than current cub count. Nothing to do with tangibles vs intangibles (though if it did, it’s not like that’s wrong — “intangibles” often end up quite important!).
 

23 minutes ago, MultiverseXXR said:

My "not a bubble" comment was in regards to actual industry growth and not stock price. I took Mulder's comment to be discussing that since all of the preceding comments about the subject where in regard to how the GA is now consuming visual media and how the audience has moved towards streaming. None of the past looking statements would indicate to me that anyone was discussing stock prices until your comment about the 72% price drop. 

Bubbles and the popping thereof is generally pretty well understood to be about expectations for the industry’s growth. If they fall from a high positive number to a low positive number, that’s still popping (and is reflected most quickly in stock prices), so I don’t think “well the industry will still grow somewhat” does much to rebut the claim.  
 

But if we have differing interpretations of Mulder’s comment and want to know what they really meant, we can just ask @Mulder

Edited May 1, 2022 by Illuminegion Confirmed

[XXR vs XXR]

10 minutes ago, Illuminegion Confirmed said:

I can assure you 100% that streaming “business owners mentality” are more worried about stock price developments than their current sub counts, because what they care about is eventual sub count*(rev/sub-cost/sub) and stock price has more to do with that than current cub count. Nothing to do with tangibles vs intangibles (though if it did, it’s not like that’s wrong — “intangibles” often end up quite important!).
 

Bubbles and the popping thereof is generally pretty well understood to be about expectations for the industry’s growth. If they fall from a high positive number to a low positive number, that’s still popping (and is reflected most quickly in stock prices), so I don’t think “well the industry will still grow somewhat” does much to rebut the claim.  
 

But if we have differing interpretations of Mulder’s comment and want to know what they really meant, we can just ask @Mulder

 

We will agree to disagree on some points. My initial comment and main point was just that things aren't "going back to the old styles" as Mulder stated. 

[Legion Again]

19 minutes ago, MultiverseXXR said:

 

We will agree to disagree on some points. My initial comment and main point was just that things aren't "going back to the old styles" as Mulder stated. 

On that, I will agree. Much of 2021 (PA, day and date, shipping so much high profile releases going pure streaming) seems to me a mistake (not necessarily that experimenting was a mistake, but that the experimenting it made sense to do revealed them to be nonoptomal models) that has been and will continue to be reverted. But -- never fully back to a 2019 or prior paradigm.

[ZeeSoh]

2 hours ago, MultiverseXXR said:

 

Netflix is their own enemy and even with the recent minuscule retraction, it'll still expand over the next 5-10 years. 

They expect to lose 2 million more subscribers in the 2nd quarter. 
 

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/netflix-expects-to-lose-2-million-subscribers-by-july/?amp=1