el sid Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 4 minutes ago, IceFire9yt said: IW staying flat from last Thursday seems ridiculously good. Are there mitigating factors around that number? Unfortunately yes, school holidays. And probably the weather wasn't very good in most states today. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 Just now, el sid said: Unfortunately yes, school holidays. And probably the weather wasn't very good in most states today. Doesn't that make Solo's OD even worse? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 1 minute ago, pepsa said: Doesn't that make Solo's OD even worse? Yes. Yes it does. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 (edited) Well $300m OS is completly dead at this point. $200m OS doesn't seem absurd anymore. Edited May 24, 2018 by pepsa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 Just now, pepsa said: Doesn't that make Solo's OD even worse? Let's say it can be lucky that this state has holidays. I doubt that Solo has that many walk ups but maybe it looks better tomorrow with the actuals. OTOH the first actual numbers from France are surprisingly bad too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GraceRandolph Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 3 minutes ago, pepsa said: Well $300m OS is completly dead at this point. $200m OS doesn't seem absurd anymore. Total? Or just this weekend? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 5 minutes ago, GraceRandolph said: Total? Or just this weekend? Of course total, WE will be well below $100M... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 If this holds Solo is litteraly done for. You can't go -70% in France (7.5% of total OS boxoffice of RO) -60% in Germany (9% of total boxoffice) -70-75% in China (13.4% of TOT) and -50% UK (15.5% of TOT). Not speaking about it's legs. Cause solo had decent legs in China. (2.25 multi) Last jedi had 1.5 multi. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GraceRandolph Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Aristis said: Of course total, WE will be well below $100M... Omg that’s so bad. So Solo might end up with a total WW gross of 500 million? Edited May 24, 2018 by GraceRandolph Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 (edited) 8 minutes ago, GraceRandolph said: Total? Or just this weekend? Total, the drops atm are looking horrible. I don't expect that it will drop 70% in france even though OD did. But let's say 50% drop-China from RO on OW and no winter holidays. RO-China was 454m OS so take 50% away, thats $227m + $15m China and you get $242m OS. Btw: Hong Kong OD -80% SK OD -85% France OD -67% Germany OD -60% (not final) Italy OD -40% And no Christmas. It does have a stronger Euro. Edited May 24, 2018 by pepsa 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 There's absolutely no fuckin way that LF isn't panicking. one can spin this as that spin-offs will always do worse than the Saga, but they saw enormous OS drop for TLJ from TFA already and there's no reason for IX to go up. Also, Solo is only the second spin-off and it has catastrophic drop from the first spin-off. Not to mention that China is a dead market for SW which is a market that lesser franchises comfortably penetrated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, Valonqar said: There's absolutely no fuckin way that LF isn't panicking. one can spin this as that spin-offs will always do worse than the Saga, but they saw enormous OS drop for TLJ from TFA already and there's no reason for IX to go up. Also, Solo is only the second spin-off and it has catastrophic drop from the first spin-off. Not to mention that China is a dead market for SW which is a market that lesser franchises comfortably penetrated. If it does less than $250m OS, they will panick big time. If this does let's say $240m OS that is only $40m OS than a movie like Exodus: Gods and Kings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 Just now, pepsa said: If it does less than $250m OS, they will panick big time. If this does let's say $240m OS that is only $40m OS than a movie like Exodus: Gods and Kings. less than a movie like Maze Runner LMAO 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 SW movies cannot be physically made under 200M. Therefore they need OS markets cause they cannot count on a breakout like TFA every time to earn profit from domestic release. And OS interest is steadily declining. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 4 minutes ago, Valonqar said: SW movies cannot be physically made under 200M. Therefore they need OS markets cause they cannot count on a breakout like TFA every time to earn profit from domestic release. And OS interest is steadily declining. Of course they can be made for under 200m, the prequels all cost around 115m each There is a reason why Lucas loved digital shooting and CGI so much, and why the terchnological developments for TPM were so extremely important. it was what made it possible to keep the costs far lower than what a movie with so many effects should cost. To keep things below 200m with today's circumstances, they'd probably need to shift the focus more towards that approach, which may not be something they would like to do, but in theory it should be doable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rebeccas Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 If Thor Ragarnok could be made for $180m then any SW film can too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 12 minutes ago, Valonqar said: SW movies cannot be physically made under 200M. Therefore they need OS markets cause they cannot count on a breakout like TFA every time to earn profit from domestic release. And OS interest is steadily declining. I think we should take this to the main Thread, we are interupting the German thread with things that don't really belong here. (This is abouisly also my fault) Btw: Steadily???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted May 25, 2018 Author Share Posted May 25, 2018 Nobody was expecting an increase from RO but this is a ridiculous drop for the franchise if true. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted May 25, 2018 Author Share Posted May 25, 2018 (edited) First weekend estimates: #1: Solo - 400k admissions (wow, just wow) #2: DP2 - 250k (-62%) #3: A-IW - 75k (-59%) Overall a very depressed weekend, obviously weather is playing a big part so we might see great holds next weekend. But that's just terrible for Solo. Edited May 25, 2018 by IndustriousAngel 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 Just now, IndustriousAngel said: Weekend trend: #1: Solo - 400k admissions (wow, just wow) #2: DP2 - 250k (-62%) #3: A-IW - 75k (-59%) Overall a very depressed weekend, obviously weather is playing a big part so we might see great holds next weekend. But that's just terrible for Solo. Wow thats bad for everyone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...