Taruseth Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 (edited) insidekino.de 2nd trend: Frozen II: 1450k (4-day: 1245k) Geheimnis: 375k (-36%) Last Christmas: 100k (-22% / -41%) Joker: 85k (-41%) Le Mans 66: 65k (-30% / -41%) Zombieland: 55k (-40%) Depeche Mode: 45k Doctor Sleeps: 45k Recep Ivedik 5: 35k (-64%) If joker stand around 3825k after the weekend, it should leg it past 4M like Endgame did past 5M. Endgame's 6th weekend was 80k and a 4883k total and it ended with 5124k. Joker has it's 7th weekend slightly higher but with a total slightly more than a million lower, which is why I think Joker should overall end around 4.1M. Geheimnis is at 3M (golden Bogey) already. I'd say it should finish it's run above Joker by a small margin. Looks like the top of the year might look something like this: RTOS: 5.8M (flat comp to TLJ / slight drop) TLK: 5.530M Frozen II: 5.25M (I'd like to stay reasonable - as long as we don't know OWend & 2nd) Avengers: 5.124M Geheimnis: 4.25M Joker: 4.1M Edited November 23, 2019 by Taruseth 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted November 24, 2019 Author Share Posted November 24, 2019 final weekend estimates from insidekino.de have F2 at 1,6mil for the 5-day start, wow! most other releases a bit higher, too - excellent. 4 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said: final weekend estimates from insidekino.de have F2 at 1,6mil for the 5-day start, wow! most other releases a bit higher, too - excellent. I am really confused, because: Frozen II had over 1M admissions (according to insidekino) from Thursday to Saturday (that means it had a really great Friday and Saturday): Wednesday: 205k Thursday: 115k Friday: 340k (no holiday) Saturday: 550k (1005k for Thursday - Saturday)* Sunday: 400k? *This Saturday sounds too high - because according to the data I remember that would be above Endgame's Saturday (500-525k?) (i.e. highest Saturday this year @RthTIFF @Jedi Jat ???) But according to blickpunkt.film it had 1018k from Wednesday to Saturday, which would mean: W: 205k T: 110k F: 275k S: 428k S: 480-580k (which would be needed for 1.5-1.6M) - have my doubts about this having a that much higher Sunday comp to Saturday - and a 580k Sunday (which is what insidekino would hope for would probably be the best day since 2015 (TFA) I think Sat and Sunday for FJGII were around 500k each and Saturday for Endgame was somewhere around there too. TLJ - I think had no day above 500k. Don't think any other movies got above 400k since TFA in 2015. Does anyone has any information about what the highest Saturday's ever where? HP1? 2.59M on 4-days? and it only had a 432k OD (don't know anything about Previews, which would mean probably 2M on Friday to Sunday, so 650k on every day, or more likeily something like 550k 800k 650k. Edited November 24, 2019 by Taruseth 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Quick 5 pm show count at Cinestar Bremen & Metropolis Frankfurt (count down around 16:15 MET=UTC+1) Bremen: 2D: 16:30: 230 / 279 2D: 16:40: 304 / 425 3D: 17:00: 252 / 572 Overall: 786 / 1276 (61.6%) Metropolis: 2D: 16:45: 537 / 624 2D OV: 17:45: 97 / 273 3D OV: 17:15: 110 / 344 3D: 17:30: 160 / 642 Overall: 904 / 1883 2D: 1168 / 1601 (72.95%) (only German: 1071 / 1328 (80.6%) 3D: 522 / 1558 (33.5%) Not enough available 2D Seats - the first 3 rows stay empty most of the time - because people seem to rather not watch the movie than watch it from there. With this date, I could actually think, that this might turn out true: 5 hours ago, Taruseth said: [...] But according to blickpunkt.film it had 1018k from Wednesday to Saturday, which would mean: W: 205k T: 110k F: 275k S: 428k S: 480-580k [...] Maybe even close to the higher end 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 I hope the actual WE is higher than $14,9M, cause that would probably be only around 1,55M and I want it to be past that 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 (edited) The Monday morning estimate for the weekend (by insidekino): Frozen II: 1,410,000 admissions ($13.3M) (+205,000 admissions on Wednesday, so 5-day of 1.615M ≈ $15.2M)) 41st best start ever (admissions) 7st best animation start ever 32nd best star ever (revenue) 147% above Frozen I. If the number by Blickpunkt:Flim for Wednesday-Saturday was correct, that would mean that Frozen II had a 597k Sunday (1615-1018k) (That would put the Sunday above the opening weekend of Frozen I (575k). Even if it wasn't fully correct Sunday most likely was above 550k (unless they were off by a lot). Geheimnis: 410k (best 4th weekend this year (roughly 4k above TLK) - total 3.34M) Last Christmas: 105k (Total 322.5k) Joker: 85k (3830k) Depeche Mode: 70k (only showings on Thursday and Sunday) Le Mans 66: 65k (210k) Zombieland: 52.5k (352.5k) Doctor Sleep: 45k Recep Ivedik: 35k (325k) Maleficient is finally past 1M (on Friday, so the 20th movie this year) Overall weekend was worth 2.44M admissions ($23M) best weekend this year. Edited November 25, 2019 by Taruseth 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 2 hours ago, Taruseth said: Recep Ivedik: 35k (325k) Turkish Cinema has good market? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 22 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said: Turkish Cinema has good market? Theres a huge turkish minority in Germany. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 10 hours ago, Taruseth said: The Monday morning estimate for the weekend (by insidekino): Frozen II: 1,410,000 admissions ($13.3M) (+205,000 admissions on Wednesday, so 5-day of 1.615M ≈ $15.2M)) 41st best start ever (admissions) 7st best animation start ever 32nd best star ever (revenue) 147% above Frozen I. If the number by Blickpunkt:Flim for Wednesday-Saturday was correct, that would mean that Frozen II had a 597k Sunday (1615-1018k) (That would put the Sunday above the opening weekend of Frozen I (575k). Even if it wasn't fully correct Sunday most likely was above 550k (unless they were off by a lot). Geheimnis: 410k (best 4th weekend this year (roughly 4k above TLK) - total 3.34M) Last Christmas: 105k (Total 322.5k) Joker: 85k (3830k) Depeche Mode: 70k (only showings on Thursday and Sunday) Le Mans 66: 65k (210k) Zombieland: 52.5k (352.5k) Doctor Sleep: 45k Recep Ivedik: 35k (325k) Maleficient is finally past 1M (on Friday, so the 20th movie this year) Overall weekend was worth 2.44M admissions ($23M) best weekend this year. Actuals for Frozen II are another 20k higher! Actuals: 1,635,215 Also in revenue (€) it's the 2nd highest start for an animation movie only behind Ice Age 2! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Max Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 8 hours ago, Jedi Jat said: Turkish Cinema has good market? in 1960's Turkish workers arrived in Germany to fill the demand for cheaper labor in a booming post-war economy. many of them never left.. according to reports approx 0.750 M Turkish labor were goes to Germany during 1961 to 1973.. half of those who came returned to Turkey & the other half remained in Germany Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 2 hours ago, Taruseth said: Actuals for Frozen II are another 20k higher! Actuals: 1,635,215 Also in revenue (€) it's the 2nd highest start for an animation movie only behind Ice Age 2! I wonder if it could have done even better with more showings. Most 2D showings on Saturday and Sunday were almost sold out. There wasn't any showing of F2 after 8pm and more 3D than 2D shows (probably Disney demanded that). And according to the InsideKino forums the same case was for some other cinemas. Anyway, great OW. I hope it'll get the admissions it lost this WE on its 2nd WE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted November 26, 2019 Author Share Posted November 26, 2019 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Frozen 2 1.429.642 743 1.924 1.635.215 14.028.336 - 1 2 Das perfekte Geheimnis 419.006 746 562 3.352.575 29.798.343 -29 4 3 Last Christmas 107.505 487 221 325.420 2.711.784 -17 2 4 Joker 87.921 532 165 3.829.689 35.471.170 -40 7 5 Depeche Mode - Spirits in the Forest 72.368 338 214 72.368 1.079.762 - 1 6 Ford vs. Ferrari 65.915 349 189 210.168 2.020.050 -29 2 7 Zombieland 2 53.359 374 143 353.364 2.977.739 -42 3 8 Doctor Sleep 45.144 380 119 45.999 438.812 - 1 9 Recep Ivedik 6 36.279 113 321 326.825 2.770.157 -62 6 10 The Addams Family 30.645 510 60 481.908 3.517.427 -51 5 11 Maleficent 2 22.416 347 65 1.018.083 9.820.728 -64 6 12 Lara 18.595 111 168 123.658 994.993 -39 3 13 Parasite 17.088 168 102 315.835 2.765.157 -29 6 14 Shaun the Sheep 2 14.876 460 32 833.551 5.628.641 -50 9 15 Where'd You Go, Bernadette 11.158 151 74 21.295 149.055 - 1 16 Angry Birds 2 11.089 256 43 760.976 5.323.630 -46 10 17 Ich war noch niemals in New York 10.416 293 36 514.659 4.419.658 -60 6 18 Official Secrets 9.516 82 116 25.489 171.852 - 1 19 Systemsprenger 8.751 269 33 541.789 4.216.670 -46 10 20 Abominable 8.065 263 31 568.132 4.016.582 -58 9 A perfect weekend for the BO with the exception of Doctor Sleep which stayed behind expectations. Frozen 2 dominated the market, a total north of 6mil seems very probable and 7mil possible. Next weekend: Some interesting releases - Hustlers, the Good Liar, The Lighthouse - but nothing really big (Hustlers has the best chances at a >100k OW) … and, a rare thing, not a single family release! Frozen2 will have another strong weekend at the top, possibly with a <30% drop. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PKMLover Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 Is Germany a leggy market for animated movie? What can be the legs for F2? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poseidon Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 15 minutes ago, PKMLover said: Is Germany a leggy market for animated movie? What can be the legs for F2? To answer that question: It depends. Germany is very dependant on weather and as most big animation movies open in summer, there is a huge variety. Pets 2 for example had a ridiculous multiplier of 12,5!!! On the other hand, a winter opener HTTYD3 only had a multiplier of 3,6 in february, because weekend #2 and #3 were hit hard with perfect spring weather, that put the multiplier down and the movie never recovered. Frozen should be fine in terms of weather, unless there's a snow chaos. Another enemy of the cinemas. In the End, I would expect a multiplier between 3 and 4. It should play well into the holidays, though, as Jumanji and Spies in Disguise won't play too well here I guess. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 (edited) The InsideKino prediction for the 2nd WE is 930k (-35%) 2,785M. That would be good and the biggest 2nd WE of the year beating A:EG (871k). I still secretly hope it can get to 1M+ 2nd WE which happened the last time in 2017 for the local FJG3 (1,07M)... 2019 could look something like this in the end: Frozen2 6M SW9 5,7M TLK 5,5M A:EG 5,1M Geheimnis 4,4M Joker 4,1M (I hope the italic ones will get higher...) It seems strange that this year has to fight to get to 120M+ admissions as the Top10 is rather strong: 2019 (with the numbers above) ~40M 2018 ~30M --> 105,4M 2017 ~37M --> 122,3M 2016 ~34M --> 121,1M But below that 2019 is probably too weak to easily get there as we have only 21x 1M+ movies yet (22x including SW9, which is save) compared to 30x (2018), 32x (2017) and 31x (2016). But maybe the strong year end can rescue us... Edited November 27, 2019 by Aristis 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 Just some more statistics (mostly) about F2 OW: TOP10 2019 OW: Admissions Theaters PTA 1 1.671.661 717 2.331 Avengers: Endgame 2 1.429.642 743 1.924 Frozen2 3 924.217 700 1.320 Das perfekte Geheimnis 4 921.781 746 1.236 The Lion King 5 841.002 690 1.219 Joker 6 640.081 633 1.011 Captain Marvel 7 615.664 669 920 HTTYD3 8 590.145 681 867 IT2 9 491.783 621 792 Hobbs & Shaw 10 438.998 610 720 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood http://www.insidekino.de/DTop10/19/DTop19NOV21.htm With SW9 yet to come TOP3 will be 1M+. But with SW9 opening on a wednesday too it isn't safe to open above F2... I hope for the best though. TOP10 Animation OW: Admissions Theaters PTA 1 2.395.588 1.061 2.258 Ice Age 2 2 2.032.136 1.004 2.024 Finding Nemo 3 1.670.397 754 2.215 The Simpsons Movie 4 1.475.967 841 1.755 Madagascar 2 5 1.465.302 794 1.845 Ice Age 6 1.457.891 861 1.693 Ice Age 3 7 1.429.642 743 1.924 Frozen 2 8 1.273.707 888 1.434 Shrek 2 9 1.226.475 834 1.471 Madagascar 10 1.106.059 820 1.349 Ice Age 4 http://www.insidekino.de/DTop10/19/DTop19NOV21.htm TOP OW Alltime: OW Theaters PTA Year 28 1.682.806 982 1.714 Harry Potter 5 07 29 1.681.087 857 1.962 JB - Spectre 15 30 1.671.661 717 2.331 Avengers - Endgame 19 31 1.670.397 754 2.215 The Simpsons Movie 07 32 1.627.277 814 1.999 Star Wars 8 17 … 39 1.457.891 861 1.693 Ice Age 3 09 40 1.450.024 865 1.676 The Da Vinci Code 06 41 1.429.642 743 1.924 Frozen 2 19 42 1.409.004 950 1.483 Spider-Man 02 43 1.353.030 739 1.831 Fifty Shades of Grey 15 http://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/DBOStartrekord.htm And the last one, TOP OW Alltime in €: 4-day OW in € Incl. previews Year 1 25.345.223 Star Wars 7 15 2 19.755.398 Star Wars 8 17 3 19.223.781 24.321.864 (5-day) Avengers - Endgame 19 4 17.733.509 Fack Ju Göhte 2 15 5 16.666.356 Harry Potter 1 01 … 29 12.401.366 Fifty Shades of Grey 1 15 30 12.347.704 14.777.539 (5-day) Fast & Furious 7 15 31 12.275.659 14.028.336 (5-day) Frozen 2 19 32 12.144.229 Matrix Reloaded 03 33 11.938.134 Star Wars 1 99 http://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/DBOStartrekordBO.htm 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poseidon Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 6 hours ago, Aristis said: The InsideKino prediction for the 2nd WE is 930k (-35%) 2,785M. That would be good and the biggest 2nd WE of the year beating A:EG (871k). I still secretly hope it can get to 1M+ 2nd WE which happened the last time in 2017 for the local FJG3 (1,07M)... 2019 could look something like this in the end: Frozen2 6M SW9 5,7M TLK 5,5M A:EG 5,1M Geheimnis 4,4M Joker 4,1M (I hope the italic ones will get higher...) It seems strange that this year has to fight to get to 120M+ admissions as the Top10 is rather strong: 2019 (with the numbers above) ~40M 2018 ~30M --> 105,4M 2017 ~37M --> 122,3M 2016 ~34M --> 121,1M But below that 2019 is probably too weak to easily get there as we have only 21x 1M+ movies yet (22x including SW9, which is save) compared to 30x (2018), 32x (2017) and 31x (2016). But maybe the strong year end can rescue us... Mid-sized Hits are literally dead. Movies that easily got to 1m admissions 10 years ago now only hit 500k. That's where Netflix and Co really hit hard. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edroger3 Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 50 minutes ago, Poseidon said: Mid-sized Hits are literally dead. Movies that easily got to 1m admissions 10 years ago now only hit 500k. That's where Netflix and Co really hit hard. I absolutely agree. Nowadays people don't "go to the cinema just to go to the cinema". Including me. Film that I watched at cinema in 2009: 4 each month. Film that I watched at cinema in 2019: 4 each year (AE - Joker - F2 + SW9 in december). My most anticipated this year: Stranger Things 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 1 hour ago, Poseidon said: Mid-sized Hits are literally dead. Movies that easily got to 1m admissions 10 years ago now only hit 500k. That's where Netflix and Co really hit hard. 18 minutes ago, edroger3 said: I absolutely agree. Nowadays people don't "go to the cinema just to go to the cinema". Including me. Film that I watched at cinema in 2009: 4 each month. Film that I watched at cinema in 2019: 4 each year (AE - Joker - F2 + SW9 in december). My most anticipated this year: Stranger Things 3 True, I thought lately that mostly "event"-movies are successful but I wasn't able to connect it that way. Maybe someday Netflix will buy cinemas for customers to watch Netflix together... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edroger3 Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 24 minutes ago, Aristis said: True, I thought lately that mostly "event"-movies are successful but I wasn't able to connect it that way. Maybe someday Netflix will buy cinemas for customers to watch Netflix together... Just Happened! https://www.theguardian.com/film/2019/nov/26/paris-theater-nyc-netflix-cinema-future 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...