Taruseth Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 (edited) New trend by insidekino.de: TROS: 1800-2000k Frozen II: 360k Jumanji: 275k Geheimnis: 125k Last Christmas: 75k Rabe Socke: 27.5k So he increased the lower end and decreased the higher end. So looks like it could actually get a 1.5M 4-day.... (which in comparison wouldn’t be that awful - yeah it would be below Endgame but at least it would give TROS a decent chance to have a total above it). maybe it can become the trilogy final with the highest admission count (would be fitting considering (ignoring DDR numbers) TFA and TLJ were the highest first and middle part. Therefore the necessary adm-count is ~5.6M. Edited December 21, 2019 by Taruseth 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 21, 2019 Author Share Posted December 21, 2019 While SW9 is a bit meh (but still good), overall it's an excellent weekend because holdovers manage to stand their ground much better than expected! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 I'm surprised that the trend for TROS is still this big. All the numbers posted for the sales don't really seem to hint at such a high total. I mean, it would be awesome if the trends turned out to be true. It would make Germany a rather positive outlier as well, which is rather rare these days. But I don't think it will actually be the case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bart Allen Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 15 minutes ago, George Parr said: I'm surprised that the trend for TROS is still this big. All the numbers posted for the sales don't really seem to hint at such a high total. I mean, it would be awesome if the trends turned out to be true. It would make Germany a rather positive outlier as well, which is rather rare these days. But I don't think it will actually be the case. So, what do you think it'll be? The Force Awakens $110 million The Last Jedi $83 million The Rise of Skywalker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RthDeadWov Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 19 hours ago, George Parr said: I'm surprised that the trend for TROS is still this big. All the numbers posted for the sales don't really seem to hint at such a high total. I mean, it would be awesome if the trends turned out to be true. It would make Germany a rather positive outlier as well, which is rather rare these days. But I don't think it will actually be the case. Yeah for 5 days wasn't seeing it getting as high as trend 1700 maybe, see how sat/sun end up 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 22, 2019 Author Share Posted December 22, 2019 final weekend estimates: #1: SW9 - 1.700k admissions (incl. Wed) #2: F2 - 375k (-20%) #3: Jum2 - 300k (-22%) #4: Geheimnis - 130k (-10%) #5: LastChristmas - 70k (-5%) SW9 looks meh to ok; 6mil are still possible but difficult to reach with this opening. Holdovers doing great, with the weekday alignment this was already more or less a holiday weekend. 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PKMLover Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 50 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said: final weekend estimates: #1: SW9 - 1.700k admissions (incl. Wed) #2: F2 - 375k (-20%) #3: Jum2 - 300k (-22%) #4: Geheimnis - 130k (-10%) #5: LastChristmas - 70k (-5%) SW9 looks meh to ok; 6mil are still possible but difficult to reach with this opening. Holdovers doing great, with the weekday alignment this was already more or less a holiday weekend. Frozen 2 is still on track for 6M+ at the end? May approach 6.5M? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 22, 2019 Author Share Posted December 22, 2019 1 minute ago, PKMLover said: Frozen 2 is still on track for 6M+ at the end? May approach 6.5M? definitely; the way it's (not) dropping it will end closer to 6,5 than 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 23, 2019 Author Share Posted December 23, 2019 according to insidekino.de, the weekend went even better than expected thanks to an extremely strong Sunday; especially holdovers did better than in latest estimates (some even with increases) - the same goes for Austria. SW9 slightly above 1,7mil in Germany; in Austria it came in lower while holdovers did much better than in Germany. 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 For what its worth, the audience at my showing for SW9 seemed to enjoy the film. Some even tried to applaud at the end. I still think the film could go over well with general audiences as its very entertaining for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Can Frozen 2 make 7 millions admissions ? Can we see an increase next week end for frozen 2 and like 500K admissions ? And for TROS next week end, above 1 million admissions ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 1 hour ago, LPLC said: Can Frozen 2 make 7 millions admissions ? Can we see an increase next week end for frozen 2 and like 500K admissions ? And for TROS next week end, above 1 million admissions ? This WE was already a little inflated by holidays so F2 won't increase by that much next WE. 425k (+8% from current estimate) would already be great I'd say. If it stayed flat that'd be the 9th highest 6th WE ever and therefore it's in awesome territory for the WE no matter if it increases or not. Atm I don't think 7M will happen, 6,25M to 6,5M look good though. As for SW9, 1M could be possible. Since SW movies are notoriously it could drop a bit higher though... Should do at least 900k (-35%) I'd say. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 24, 2019 Author Share Posted December 24, 2019 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Star Wars 9 1.388.487 785 1.769 1.710.184 19.969.748 - 1 2 Frozen 2 393.458 691 569 4.807.902 39.929.079 -16 5 3 Jumanji 2 303.000 600 505 791.049 7.598.268 -27 2 4 Das perfekte Geheimnis 130.548 700 186 4.362.305 38.655.174 -9 8 5 Last Christmas 74.011 543 136 783.985 6.466.084 +0 6 6 Der kleine Rabe Socke 3 39.104 529 74 101.006 663.294 -15 2 7 Hustlers 19.071 244 78 247.625 2.126.824 -52 4 8 Black Christmas 16.178 302 54 55.335 476.947 -47 2 9 La Befana Vien Di Notte 15.115 271 56 79.688 451.310 +86 7 10 Joker 14.090 277 51 4.022.788 37.242.694 -44 11 11 The Peanut Butter Falcon 12.594 79 159 27.087 181.720 - 1 12 The Addams Family 11.461 288 40 559.802 4.024.839 -17 9 13 VIP Polizist 2 9.244 98 94 9.244 99.641 - 1 14 Mucize 2 - Ask 8.982 75 120 58.829 523.061 -42 3 15 The Farewell 8.603 80 108 16.162 111.611 - 1 16 Hors Normes 7.927 111 71 52.786 409.044 -27 3 17 A Rainy Day in New York 7.746 112 69 53.137 441.982 -34 3 18 Aman Reis Duymasin 6.573 45 146 19.498 176.902 -41 2 19 La belle époque 6.500 122 53 67.074 562.618 -34 4 20 Motherless Brooklyn 6.276 78 80 31.385 245.171 -41 2 StarWars9's opening was so-so; the weekend itself was lower than SW8's but the total until Sunday a bit higher. I really don't think this is a good sign, for now I'm staying with my estimate of 5,5mil total. While this was kind of meh, holdovers stood their ground and made this an excellent overall weekend (biggest of the year I believe) - Last Christmas has a shot at 1mil total, and with Holiday season starting, Jumanji2 might reach 2mil and Frozen2 6,5mil. Still very alive: Domestic comedy remake Geheimnis which might come close to 5mil total (won't profit that much from holidays though …) Next weekend: SW9 will stay in front but can it drop less than 30% (from 1,39mil) ? We'll see but I suspect a steeper drop. A lot of kids releases but Frozen2 will stay the most popular choice for families. And then there's Cats which, on the plus side, got a lot of media coverage. Maybe there'll be a few onlookers, a trainwreck of such dimensions is something you don't see every day. 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 SW Disney Trilogy: WE SW7 SW8 SW9 1st 2.139 2.139 1.627 1.627 1.388 1.710 2nd 1.161 -46% 4.431 721 -56% 2.838 3rd 848 -27% 6.566 849 18% 4.393 4th 583 -31% 7.630 467 -45% 5.211 5th 324 -44% 8.094 202 -57% 5.503 6th 204 -37% 8.380 110 -46% 5.663 7th 145 -29% 8.582 70 -36% 5.761 8th 91 -37% 8.719 42 -40% 5.822 9th 66 -27% 8.819 24 -43% 5.857 10th 39 -41% 8.874 11 -54% 5.877 9,060M 5,906M 5,500M Frozen: WE Frozen1 Frozen2 1st 572 654 1.430 1.635 2nd 577 1% 1.355 941 -34% 2.822 3rd 476 -18% 1.952 708 -25% 3.704 4th 433 -9% 2.499 468 -34% 4.307 5th 540 25% 3.242 393 -16% 4.808 6th 402 -26% 3.838 7th 158 -61% 4.091 8th 107 -32% 4.217 9th 81 -24% 4.311 10th 89 10% 4.412 4.767M 6.000M Spoiler Frozen2 vs. Minions: WE Minions Frozen2 1st 935 935 1.430 1.635 2nd 1.040 11% 2.394 941 -34% 2.822 3rd 760 -27% 3.598 708 -25% 3.704 4th 537 -29% 4.419 468 -34% 4.307 5th 366 -32% 5.147 393 -16% 4.808 6th 195 -47% 5.521 7th 242 24% 5.893 8th 111 -54% 6.160 9th 81 -27% 6.323 10th 125 54% 6.497 6.946M 6,250M Frozen1 Frozen2 WE Weekend Mid-week Week Weekend Mid-week Week 1st 572 654 124 696 1.430 1.635 246 1.676 2nd 577 1% 1.355 121 698 0% 941 -34% 2.822 174 1.115 -33% 3rd 476 -18% 1.952 114 590 -15% 708 -25% 3.704 135 843 -24% 4th 433 -9% 2.499 203 636 8% 468 -34% 4.307 108 576 -32% 5th 540 25% 3.242 194 734 15% 393 -16% 4.808 6th 402 -26% 3.838 95 497 -32% 7th 158 -61% 4.091 19 177 -64% 8th 107 -32% 4.217 13 120 -32% 9th 81 -24% 4.311 12 93 -23% 10th 89 10% 4.412 0 4.767M 0 0 6,250M 0 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 25, 2019 Author Share Posted December 25, 2019 (edited) At least in my theater Cats doesn't look that bad ... maybe it can reach 50-75k OW in Germany? Book adaption Als Hitler das rosa Kaninchen stahl looks very weak here but I guess Austria is not the main market for it, should do much better in Germany. Star Wars 9 is uneven ... some shows (4DX or English) are selling like crazy, but those are mostly on smaller screens, while the standard shows on bigger screens make me think of a 40% drop. Edited December 25, 2019 by IndustriousAngel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poseidon Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 25 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said: At least in my theater Cats doesn't look that bad ... maybe it can reach 50-75k OW in Germany? Book adaption Als Hitler das rosa Kaninchen stahl looks very weak here but I guess Austria is not the main market for it, should do much better in Germany. Star Wars 9 is uneven ... some shows (4DX or English) are selling like crazy, but those are mostly on smaller screens, while the standard shows on bigger screens make me think of a 40% drop. Cats should open well into the 100ks. Very solid opening in Germany. Compared to some afternoon numbers of 2013, both Cats and Kaninchen should open to 200k+ over 5 days. We'll see how it goes from here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poseidon Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Well, it didn't go too well from there. Cats is dropping like a rock and Kaninchen is doing mediocre at best. Let's hope they can recover, but this was a pretty sad christmas in terms of broad appeal at the german BO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 (edited) 1st trend by insidekino.de: TROS 1050k (3.34M total) Frozen II: 450k* (5.45M total!) Jumanji: 425k** (1.375M total) Kaninchen: 200k (5 day) Geheimnis: 135k (4.55M total) *sixth best sixth weekend! **WTF - Best weekend of it‘s run - shoul clearly get above 2M (and above J1 (1.9M)) Edited December 27, 2019 by Taruseth 7 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 27, 2019 Author Share Posted December 27, 2019 that's a 25% drop for SW9, excellent! Most other holdovers even with increases, more excellent! Openers not so excellent ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, IndustriousAngel said: that's a 25% drop for SW9, excellent! Most other holdovers even with increases, more excellent! Openers not so excellent ... I‘d be cautious with the trend, Thursday was Boxing Day. some Thursday numbers: TROS: 200k (€2.4M) Frozen II: 80k Jumanji: 80k Kaninchen: 34k Spione (Animation): 21k Cats: 17k And don‘t compare TROS to TLJ (different holiday frames) so the bigger 2nd weekend means close to nothing. if next weekends stays around 700k than we might start talking about a total close to TLJ. Edited December 27, 2019 by Taruseth 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...