BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[FantasticBeasts]

21 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

http://www.insidekino.de/Y/YDuellHarryVsHarry.htm

Thank You

[IndustriousAngel]

2 hours ago, Noctis said:

Overall, how would you say FB performed in Germany?

 

Along expectations ... a 50% drop from HP seems the rule in most regions so no big difference here.

[terrestrial]

Quote

"Rogue One ... 20. day in German cinemas broke the 3m admissions mark ... gets Gold-Bogey (=per blickpunktfilm GmbH for 3m admissions within 30 days total) is aktual at 33.97 Mio. Euro.

http://www.mediabiz.de/film/news/rogue-one-vergoldet/414247

 

How to shorten a short ... thing (not seriously meant)

[el sid]

Of course, these numbers are only (rough) estimates. You can see if a film surprises, is a total disaster or will do modest business but they are NO first trend.
And the latest estimates were an even bigger wildcard than usual due to the holidays and the New Year constellation.
The actual AC number was 100k on Thursday, not 122k.

Since I look at the Thursday estimates and then the actuals every week it seems to me that there could be a „system“ behind it:
For example when it comes to Rogue One it worked surprisingly well: The estimates where only around 5k off from the actuals. So RO does what it should do in the evening and afternoon and from walk-ups. Same with Hartmanns.
FB e.g. is definitely an evening beast and probably has more walk-ups than projected and therefore is/was always underestimated but
if films do worse than expected especially in the evening like Inferno or AC the actuals go down. Then the next Thursday and Friday I/we are already warned but if such films are new released → ?.

[jerem4502]

Can i have a prediction box office for Plötzlich Papa or Demain tout commence in french?

[IndustriousAngel]

34 minutes ago, jerem4502 said:

Can i have a prediction box office for Plötzlich Papa or Demain tout commence in french?

I'd say somewhere along 75k admissions for the opening weekend would be very good; it hasn't got that many theaters and despite Intouchables, Omar Sy is not a big draw. As to total, you never can tell with those french comedies, some of them just take off like Intouchables and others fizzle. If it does open to 75k then it should make more than 500k total.

[DaveVanK]

On 1/1/2017 at 2:58 AM, terrestrial said:

As you deliver the top 20 charts I never (usually never) look into BOM's charts for Germany

(Austria gets it's own total, but no chart for the ones not knowing)

 

I just realised, that they have a few details not in the top 20.

Their chart is shorter, as the do not show all titles, but they show titles too small to be on the top 20 - depending on...

And it is in US$ = might be interesting for a few non-EU members here too?

 

 

 

The one thing I like more than BOM is that it's actual visits, it's often interesting to note that some films (particularly Kid's films) get far more visits than the revenue generated by a mainly-adults film

[el sid]

On 3.1.2017 at 10:44 PM, jerem4502 said:

Can i have a prediction box office for Plötzlich Papa or Demain tout commence in french?

Today, on release day, I have a quite good feeling. Mark_G (insidekino.de) predicts 150k on it's first weekend and to my surprise the evening show in mathäser is nearly sold out. Reservations for tomorrow look good too. It starts in only 216 theaters but the reviews are ok: most critics say the story is unoriginal but the movie has charm and the acting is good.
And as IndustriousAngel said it will have (very) good legs.

Edited January 5, 2017 by el sid

[el sid]

Again a special weekend is coming. Friday is Epiphany and most states still have school holidays plus in three states it's a legal holiday but OTOH it's projected to become very cold (at least in parts of Germany) which will deter some moviegoers because of icy streets etc.
The Thursday estimates via insidekino.de (forum):

New Releases:

Passengers: 90k (starts in 545 theaters, several mediocre reviews but also good ones) - I'm not sure about the weekend multiplier, but I would say that's a nice number
Feuerwehrmann Sam – Achtung Außerirdische!: ?k (268)
Plötzlich Papa: 30.5k (216, ok reviews) - very good for that small start if it holds

Holdovers:

Rogue One: 90.5k (last Thursday actuals 200k but with another weekend constellation, Thursday was the best day last week)
Vier gegen die Bank: 52.5k (85k)
Assassin's Creed: 43.5k (100k)
Hartmanns: 30k (45.5k estimated)
FB: 24.5k (40.5k estimated)
Sing: 14k evening only (90k whole day)

Edited January 5, 2017 by el sid

[Aristis]

Blickpunkt:Film has first numbers of the year:

 

Edit: Those numbers seem to be only a part of the year and will maybe get higher.

 

According to that site 2016 made €993,8M (which would be $1,05B now, but XR is much lower than it was through the year, could be near $1,1B) which is 12,4% below 2015 (that was a record year with €1,167M. It would be (if it doesn't get below €980M) the fourth biggest year ever. I just calculated myself and 12,4% less would get 2016 to €1,022M (still not enough to overtake 2013)

 

I do not really understand how they calculate, they say it would be the third biggest above 2013 but that was €1,023B... They seem to be optimistic that €1B will be passed.

 

But what seems to be devastating is the admissions-number: They have it at 115,8M (the lowest since 1992 with 105,9M). But they say it would be down 12,8%. That decrease would make 121,4M admissions...

 

Average ticket price is 8,58€ (2015: 8,54) which is only a minimal increase (maybe the only good news).

 

Maybe anyone could help me with that Chaos Hopefully my theory that it's only a part of 2016 admissions is correct...

 

 

http://www.mediabiz.de/film/news/deutscher-kinomarkt-em-jahr-schlaegt-wm-jahr/414306

 

 

[Aristis]

6 minutes ago, el sid said:

New Releases:

Passengers: 90k (starts in 545 theaters, several mediocre reviews but also good ones) - I'm not sure about the weekend multiplier, but I would say that's a nice number
Feuerwehrmann Sam – Achtung Außerirdische!: ?k (268)
Plötzlich Papa: 30.5k (216, ok reviews) - very good for that small start if it holds

Holdovers:

Rogue One: 90.5k (last Thursday actuals 200k but with another weekend constellation, Thursday was the best day last week)
Vier gegen die Bank: 52.5k (85k)
Assassin's Creed: 43.5k (100k)
Hartmanns: 30k (45.5k estimated)
FB: 24.5k (40.5k estimated)
Sing: 14k evening only (90k whole day)

So RO will probably be Number 1 again...

Edited January 5, 2017 by Aristis

[IndustriousAngel]

150k for the weekend for "Plötzlich Papa" (Demain tout commence) would be nearly insane with those few theaters, the shows must be packed - didn't see that coming at all. Nice! Passengers basically does what it's expected to and R1 seems to have a nice hold considering Passengers is targeting mostly the same demo. Let's wait for Sunday though, weather might have some negative impact this weekend.

[IndustriousAngel]

First trends from insidekino.de:

 

#1: Passengers - 500k (incl. previews) - very good number!

#2: R1 - 350k (-25%, good hold!)

#3: Moana - 250k (-11%, wow, sure makes up for the poor opening)

#4: Sing - 225k (+3%, even more wow)

#5/6: AC / VgdB with 175k each (AC -25%, VgdB -23%)

#7: PP - 200k incl. previews (insane)

 

WbdH stays over 100k, too - extremely strong weekend!

[George Parr]

The holds may sounds good on paper, but compared to a similar weekend in the past it isn't nearly as impressive anymore.

 

In 2011, the last time we had the dates fall like this, Sherlock Holmes 2 stayed flat at 335k, Puss in Boots stayed mostly flat (285k -> 280k), Rubbeldiekatz went from 240k to 280k, MI stayed flat at 175k and Alvin & the Chipmunks 3 increased from 195k to 235k.

 

Though to be fair, this time there are two new releases with 500k and 200k each, last time around there were only one at 285k and one at 170k.

[el sid]

I compare the first trend only to the expectations I had before this weekend ;).

The Thursday actuals:

#1 Passengers: 90k
#2 RO: 70k not 90k, so Passengers hurted its evening business a lot
#3 Moana: 55k whole day
#4 Sing: 50k whole day
#5 Assassins Creed: 40k
#6 Plötzlich Papa: 35k – even better

[ttr]

First trends from insidekino.de:
 
#1: Passengers - 500k (incl. previews) - very good number!
#2: R1 - 350k (-25%, good hold!)
#3: Moana - 250k (-11%, wow, sure makes up for the poor opening)
#4: Sing - 225k (+3%, even more wow)
#5/6: AC / VgdB with 175k each (AC -25%, VgdB -23%)
#7: PP - 200k incl. previews (insane)
 
WbdH stays over 100k, too - extremely strong weekend!

Happy to see Moana is doing decently after the bad opening.

[Giesi]

Let's see if these estimates hold, by Sunday I expect the roads in Germany to become one big ice track.

[terrestrial]

1 hour ago, George Parr said:

The holds may sounds good on paper, but compared to a similar weekend in the past it isn't nearly as impressive anymore.

In 2011, the last time we had the dates fall like this, Sherlock Holmes 2 stayed flat at 335k, Puss in Boots stayed mostly flat (285k -> 280k), Rubbeldiekatz went from 240k to 280k, MI stayed flat at 175k and Alvin & the Chipmunks 3 increased from 195k to 235k.

Though to be fair, this time there are two new releases with 500k and 200k each, last time around there were only one at 285k and one at 170k.

I am too lazy (better said busy with a non BO-project), do you happen to have looked into the weather then?

 

I am curious how far the ice here in my direct surrounding (I won't drive a meter in the evening/night) and the bad weather to yesterday in the north... might have an impact.

Also if Saturday / Sunday will fare better in comparison to especially Thursday (splitted up to the regions without ice... - the regions with ice the opposite?).

I mean in the +/- 5% area. I do not think it will have a bigger impact (Thursday), curious if it is measurable (if existing).

Edited January 6, 2017 by terrestrial

[Noctis]

How is FB doing?

[IndustriousAngel]

8 minutes ago, Noctis said:

How is FB doing?

90k, -20%