BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[el sid]

Some Thursday estimates from insidekino.de/forum:

The new releases:

Coco: 5k evening only - so like last Thursday that‘s no indication; on the one hand that‘s twice of the admissions which Paddington 2 had last Thursday, OTOH this film is not only for parents with kids; insidekino.de predicts a 300k admissions weekend (released in 613 theaters, good and mostly very good reviews, first WOM is also very good)
Girls Trip: 5.5k (315, very mixed reviews between 1 and 8/10, overall they‘re quite ok)
Flatliners: 4k (294, mostly poor reviews)
Madame: 3.5k (104, overall good reviews)
Der Mann aus dem Eis: 1k (97, overall quite good reviews)
Brimstone: ?k (ca. 60 theaters, mixed reviews between 4 and 8.5/10)

The holdovers:

Murder on the Orient Express: 13k (actuals last Thursday 18k) – fine as always, and anecdotal: in the mathäser it gets the biggest cinema hall in the evening for the first time and that on its 4th weekend  
FJG 3: 9k (18.5k)
Justice League: 8.5k (16.5k)
Bad Moms 2: 8.5k (11.5k)
Aus dem Nichts: 4k (9k)
Happy Deathday: 2k
Home Again: 1.5k (2k)

The same holdovers as last week seem to have the best holds. By the way these numbers could look a bit worse than they are (like it was last Thursday) because if the cinema halls look pretty empty (not many reservations or sold tickets) many moviegoers know they don‘t have to already reservate or buy their tickets because it‘s early enough in the theaters.

Edited November 30, 2017 by el sid

[Brainbug]

1 hour ago, Giesi said:

I‘m having high hopes for TLJ, don‘t fail me Germany. 

 

The entire first week of showings in my cinema has been nearly completely sold out already (I count showings with like 10 seats remaining as a sold-out)

[George Parr]

First trend is up at insidekino, the holds aren't particularly good:

 

#1 Coco 275k

#2 Paddington 2 150k (-36% / -49% with previews)

#3 FjG3 125k (-40%)

#4 Murder on the Orient Express 120k (-28%)

#5 Justice League 75k (-40%)

[el sid]

One hold is pretty good . But yes, overall this first trend is a bit disappointing. For Coco of course everything is still possible but the combination of Paddington 2 and Coco wasn't the best idea, especially for P2.

The Thursday actuals from Blickpunkt:Film:

#1 Coco: 15k admissions/155k US$ (that's 2k over Paddington 2 but with a IMO broader target audience)
#2 Murder on the Orient Express: 13k
#3 FJG3 11.5k
#4 JL 9.5k
#5 Aus dem Nichts: 7k
...
#9 Girls Trip: 5k
#10 Flatliners: 4.5k
#12 Madame: 2.3k
#13 Der Mann aus dem Eis: 1.1k


 

[IndustriousAngel]

estimates are not looking too good ...

#1 Coco - 275k (i was hoping for something near 400k)

#2 Paddington2 150k (-36%)

#3: FJG3 - 125k (-40%)

#4: ModOE - 120k (-28%, the only really surprise release atm)

 

esit_ sorry just saw that those are already posted ... much work atm ...

Edited December 1, 2017 by IndustriousAngel

[George Parr]

2nd trend looks even worse, the only movie of the top five that didn't drop was JL...

 

#1 Coco 240k

#2 Paddington 2 140k

#3 FjG3 120k

#4 Murder on the Orient Express 115k

#5 Justice League 75k

#6 Bad Moms 2 55k

#7/8/9 Aus dem Nichts / Girls Trip / Flatliners 52.5k

#10 Happy Death Day 42.5k

#11 Thor 3 40k

 

http://www.insidekino.com/News.htm

 

[IndustriousAngel]

Final estimates MUCH worse ... Coco 200k, Pad 125 ... cruel

[Aristis]

7 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Final estimates MUCH worse ... Coco 200k, Pad 125 ... cruel

Thought about posting the numbers earlier... Coudln't. It's getting worse every weekend, I'm happy when SW8 arrives and I won't accept bad numbers!

[Olive]

Germany is not like a market with 82M population...

[TalismanRing]

That title needs to be changed 

 

If Coco was actually mediocre then Germany would have gone out to see it - it's the way they prefer their animation.  

[Brainbug]

19 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

That title needs to be changed 

 

If Coco was actually mediocre then Germany would have gone out to see it - it's the way they prefer their animation.  

 

The movie tastes of Germans in the last 7-8 years were for the most part terrible.

 

I am ashamed of my country in that regard

[Aristis]

15 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

The movie tastes of Germans in the last 7-8 years were for the most part terrible.

 

I am ashamed of my country in that regard

To be fair, WW isn't much better. And Intouchables still is the biggest movie of the decade

[Brainbug]

15 minutes ago, Aristis said:

To be fair, WW isn't much better. And Intouchables still is the biggest movie of the decade

 

That movie was a monster. I remember it having a Titanic run like here in regards to holds. Such fun to follow.

[George Parr]

17 hours ago, Olive Skywalker said:

Germany is not like a market with 82M population...

I think that has a lot to do with the way theaters are trying to make money. Tickets are much more expensive then they are in France, and theater-chains don't seem to grasp that this hurts them. By now, the big blockbusters can cost 15-20 Euro, that's just absurd. Even the average ticket price outside of that is quite a bit larger than it is in France. Though France also has the advantage of a healthy movie industry, while Germany is all but a barren wasteland in that regard.

 

It also doesn't help that studios tend to deliver the biggest movies at times that don't fit to the way the German movie-going works. If you look at the biggest movies since 1990, the vast majority came out in winter, with a few coming in autumn. Summer had a few exceptions, mostly some animated movies or something like Harry Potter, but those either fared much better in winter as well or worked regardless of where you put them.

 

The whole idea of worldwide releases that all happen at roughly the same time hurts German box office, as does the focus on comic book movies, which really don't interest all that many people here. What could help is Hollywood-studios finally realising that movies can start big even outside the summer, spreading the big movies over the entire year.

 

 

15 hours ago, Aristis said:

To be fair, WW isn't much better. And Intouchables still is the biggest movie of the decade

I wonder if this will change with upcoming double/triple features. Intouchables is only 140k ahead of TFA, and the latter should get something from the upcoming release of TLJ as well as the release of Episode IX.

While it is obviously not a perfect comparison, LOTR 1 gained about 900k admissions alongside the other two releases, with LOTR 2 gaining over 400k as well. Even if you reduce that, it might just be enough for TFA to pass Intouchables in the longrun. Maybe not this time yet though.

[TalismanRing]

22 minutes ago, George Parr said:

I think that has a lot to do with the way theaters are trying to make money. Tickets are much more expensive then they are in France, and theater-chains don't seem to grasp that this hurts them. By now, the big blockbusters can cost 15-20 Euro, that's just absurd. Even the average ticket price outside of that is quite a bit larger than it is in France. Though France also has the advantage of a healthy movie industry, while Germany is all but a barren wasteland in that regard.

 

It also doesn't help that studios tend to deliver the biggest movies at times that don't fit to the way the German movie-going works. If you look at the biggest movies since 1990, the vast majority came out in winter, with a few coming in autumn. Summer had a few exceptions, mostly some animated movies or something like Harry Potter, but those either fared much better in winter as well or worked regardless of where you put them.

 

The whole idea of worldwide releases that all happen at roughly the same time hurts German box office, as does the focus on comic book movies, which really don't interest all that many people here. What could help is Hollywood-studios finally realising that movies can start big even outside the summer, spreading the big movies over the entire year.

 

 

I wonder if this will change with upcoming double/triple features. Intouchables is only 140k ahead of TFA, and the latter should get something from the upcoming release of TLJ as well as the release of Episode IX.

While it is obviously not a perfect comparison, LOTR 1 gained about 900k admissions alongside the other two releases, with LOTR 2 gaining over 400k as well. Even if you reduce that, it might just be enough for TFA to pass Intouchables in the longrun. Maybe not this time yet though.

 

They'd have to spread the release patterns out all over then as well, tuning each one to a specific market.  That would not only make it more difficult to schedule the cast for promotion but raise the cost of marketing which is already onerous and leave them even more vulnerable to piracy.  The reason studios can afford to schedule months later in Japan is because piracy is so low there and Japan is a huge WOM market and not so dependent on marketing.   I assume Animated films are able to have spread out release patterns because piracy has less impact on films many people take their kids to as an outing. 

 

 

[Brainbug]

I can say that i would be going to the cinema a LOT more, if the ticket prices werent so high. At the moment, i cant afford to buy tickets for more than 15 movies a year and that is still 15 times more than the yearly viewings of my parents, which used to go regulary to the movies when ticket prices werent so damn high. Furthermore, 3D is still a thing here for some unknown reason and many people (including me) hate 3D.

[TalismanRing]

19 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

I can say that i would be going to the cinema a LOT more, if the ticket prices werent so high. At the moment, i cant afford to buy tickets for more than 15 movies a year and that is still 15 times more than the yearly viewings of my parents, which used to go regulary to the movies when ticket prices werent so damn high. Furthermore, 3D is still a thing here for some unknown reason and many people (including me) hate 3D.

15 times a year is about 4 times what the avg American goes to the movies.  I wonder what the avg is in other countries.

 

I can see where ticket prices for many are really are getting to be too much.  I just bought tickets for 3 to see a movie - in regular old 2D and it was $50 when I could have waited a month or two and rented it on streaming for $5 or 10 or bought the BR for $20.

[Brainbug]

30 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

15 times a year is about 4 times what the avg American goes to the movies.  I wonder what the avg is in other countries.

 

I can see where ticket prices for many are really are getting to be too much.  I just bought tickets for 3 to see a movie - in regular old 2D and it was $50 when I could have waited a month or two and rented it on streaming for $5 or 10 or bought the BR for $20.

 

Im a fim nerd so i dont see myself as an average filmgoer. But i know many people who love films as much as i do but just wait for the Blu-Ray releases (or streaming ) now.

[Fullbuster]

48 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

15 times a year is about 4 times what the avg American goes to the movies.  I wonder what the avg is in other countries.

 

I can see where ticket prices for many are really are getting to be too much.  I just bought tickets for 3 to see a movie - in regular old 2D and it was $50 when I could have waited a month or two and rented it on streaming for $5 or 10 or bought the BR for $20.

 

In Germany the average is 1.4 movies per year

In France it's close to 5

In Brazil it's 0.8

In Japan it's 1

Edited December 4, 2017 by Fullbuster

[Aristis]

2 hours ago, Fullbuster said:

 

In Germany the average is 1.4 movies per year

In France it's close to 5

In Brazil it's 0.8

In Japan it's 1

Isn't it in Japan more like 1,3 or 1,4 too? (Population 127M, Admissions ca.165M).

 

France is so huge...