BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[el sid]

And the Monday update confirms the third trend, mostly it`s even a little bit better:

#1 BP 217.5k/1.095M
#2 Red Sparrow 197.5/202.5k - only a very small proportion of the weekend result comes from previews, good
#3 FSF 175k/2.660M
#4 The Post 152.5k/400k
#5 Game Night 102.5k/106k
#6 Die kleine Hexe 97.5k/1.225M
#7 Die Biene Maja 90k
#8 Wendy 2 77.5k/225k
#9 Wonder 52.5k/885k
#10 Heilstätten 40k/110k
#11 Das schweigende Klassenzimmer 37.5/42.5k
#12 Hilfe, ich hab meine Eltern geschrumpft  37.5/770k
#13 Shape of Water 37.5k/230k
#14 Billboards 32.5k/550k
#15 Call Me by Your Name 25k/35k
#16 Maze Runner 3 20k/600k
 

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Black Panther	218.429	588	371	1.104.416	12.152.086	-24	3
2	Red Sparrow	197.418	521	379	203.842	1.987.092	-	1
3	Fifty Shades of Grey 3	174.168	636	274	2.665.230	24.347.327	-43	4
4	The Post	154.560	361	428	403.332	3.492.255	-8	2
5	Game Night	102.996	455	226	108.085	931.333	-	1
6	Die kleine Hexe	97.520	795	123	1.224.775	8.052.544	-29	5
7	Die Biene Maja 2	89.947	462	195	89.947	629.243	-	1
8	Wendy 2	77.123	615	125	222.005	1.469.274	-27	2
9	Wonder	52.710	581	91	985.871	7.822.686	-27	6
10	Heilstätten	39.601	291	136	110.038	983.231	-31	2
11	Das schweigende Klassenzimmer	36.822	116	317	42.238	341.016	-	1
12	The Shape of Water	36.461	276	132	229.588	1.908.831	-22	3
13	Hilfe, ich hab meine Eltern geschrumpft	36.190	496	73	762.188	4.939.451	-24	7
14	Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	32.164	408	79	545.892	4.370.982	-13	6
15	Call Me By Your Name	25.647	109	235	35.591	291.939	-	1
16	Maze Runner 3	19.772	219	90	591.948	6.210.233	-55	5
17	Le Sens de la fête	13.577	191	71	250.977	2.012.843	-31	5
18	Ferdinand	12.892	279	46	1.059.313	7.395.528	-39	12
19	The Darkest Hour	11.884	246	48	351.613	3.038.834	-17	7
20	Jumanji	11.815	213	55	1.969.477	18.853.289	-37	11

A satisfying weekend (yet once more lagging behind 2017) - good holds (The Post nearly flat) and the openers on the upper end of expectations (Red Sparrow with a nice development during the weekend which should mean better holds than Atomic Blonde).

Next weekend: In the aftermath of the academy awards, expect good holds and expansions for the corresponding releases. No big new releases but at least two with the potential to hit 100k admissions for the weekend - Death Wish and domestic comedy Vielmachglas.

[IndustriousAngel]

First estimates from insidekino.de:

#1 - Sparrow 160k (-19%)

#2 - Panther 150k (-32%)

#3 - Post 135k (-13%)

[el sid]

Also a good first trend for Shape of Water (60k, +65%) and Three Billboards (40k, +24%).
But the rest is sad. All newcomers stay below the expectations.

The Thursday actuals from Blickpunkt:Film:

The new releases (reservations looked terrible and I hoped for some walk-ups, but that did not happen obviously):

Vielmachglas: 6.1k (a German drama-comedy, released in 360 theaters, mediocre reviews) → 70k OW predicted so far
Death Wish: 6.1k (283, several modest and some ok reviews) – the not very good reviews helped to reduce the buzz but I also often have the feeling that German moviegoers monitor too much if a film is a hit in the USA/WW and if not, they also don`t want to see it. Or worded positively, if a film is reported to be a big hit it causes a lot of interest here → 45k OW
Molly`s Game: 2k (224, good and very good reviews) → 35k OW
12 Strong: 1.8k (200, mixed reviews between 4 and 7/10) → 27.5k OW

The holdovers:

Red Sparrow: 18.4k (actuals last Thursday 22.6k)
Black Panther: 15.8k (23k)
The Post: 15.6k (17.5k)
Fifty Shades Freed: 14.2k (23.5k)
Shape of Water: 8k
Wonder: ?k → 35k OW

Edited March 9, 2018 by el sid

[IndustriousAngel]

super holds, terrible openings ...

[George Parr]

I definately didn't expect to see Red Sparrow ahead of Black Panther (for now).

 

Good to see that Wonder has topped the 1m mark. Jumanji might just miss out on reaching 2m though.

[IndustriousAngel]

The way Sparrow was developing over the last weekend was already an indication of good legs. Still a surprising hold, especially with Death Wish catering to a similar demo.

[el sid]

Because we got no Thursday estimates and there`s an interesting gap between the new releases and the holdovers, these are the Friday estimates from insidekino.de/forum:

The new releases - sigh:

Vielmachglas: 14.5k
Death Wish 12k
Molly´s Game: 4k
Operation: 12 Strong: 4k

But all holdovers look more delightful:

Red Sparrow: 62.5k (!) - could of course be overestimated but still, this number confirms the fine hold and that it should become the new #1 (estimated number from last Friday was 66.5k)
The Post: 44.5k (46.5k)
BP: 42k (60.5k)
Fifty Shades Freed: 42k (61k)
Game Night: 19.5k (30k)
Shape of Water: 19k (12k)
Three Billboards: 12.5k (9.5k)
Das schweigende Klassenzimmer: 8k (9k)
Call Me by Your Name: 5.5k (6k)

[Barnack]

3 minutes ago, el sid said:

Shape of Water: 19k (12k)
Three Billboards: 12.5k (9.5k)

Look like there is an Oscar boost in Germany  ? They did expend ?

[el sid]

6 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Look like there is an Oscar boost in Germany  ? They did expend ?

It`s hard to find an exact source because we have no theater count chart (or at least not me) but filmstarts.de reports for today that Shape is playing in 354 theaters (had 347 last weekend according to bom) and Billboards in 391 (had 482 last weekend). So no (strong) increase when it comes to theater counts (maybe on Saturday and Sunday?). But this isn`t saying something about how often the films are shown/day, maybe that increased.
Either way, according to the first trend from insidekino.de both will increase this weekend with Shape of Water having 60k admissions (+65%) and Billboards 40k admissions (+24%).

[George Parr]

2nd trend is up, Red Sparrow is up a bit, everything else among the top movies pretty much stays the same as with the last trend:

 

#1 Red Sparrow 170k

#2 Black Panther 150k

#3 The Post 135k

#4 FSoG3 100k

#5 Vielmachglas 72.5k

#6 Game Night 70k

#7 Biene Maja 2 70k

#8 Die kleine Hexe 70k

#9 Shape of Water 60k

#10 Wendy 2 50k

[titanic2187]

15 hours ago, Barnack said:

Look like there is an Oscar boost in Germany  ? They did expend ?

European is a big market for Oscar movies, so no really a surprise, they would expand to accommodate the demand

[IndustriousAngel]

Good numbers except the openers (ouchhh)!

 

Austria's February numbers are online, at least it was a mediocre one - a relief after the worst January in history but still a rather hopeless outlook for 2018

[IndustriousAngel]

final weekend estimates stay with Sat numbers ... ok weekend but not much more.

[el sid]

The unexciting Monday update from insidekino:

#1 Red Sparrow 165/425k
#2 BP 150k/1.305M (#1 boxoffice-wise then?)
#3 The Post 130k/595k
#4 Fifty Shades Freed 102.5k/2.820M
#5 Die kleine Hexe 67.5k/1.305M
#6 Game Night 65k/195k
#7 Vielmachglas 65k/77.5k
#8 Die Biene Maja 62.5k/165k
#9 Shape of Water 60k/320k
#10 Wendy 2 50k/285k
#11 Death Wish 47.5k
#12 Billboards 37.5k/600k
#13 Wonder 30k/1.030M
#14 Hilfe, ich hab meine Eltern geschrumpft 27.5k/805k
#15 Das schweigende Klassenzimmer 27.5k/80k
#16 Heilstätten 22.5k/150k
#17 Call Me by Your Name 20k/65k
...

Molly`s Game 17.5k/40k
12 Strong  15k/27.5k
 

[IndustriousAngel]

37 minutes ago, el sid said:

The unexciting Monday update
 

that's the fitting word ... just ok business but nothing standing out. Last year's corresponding weekend was much the same but with a big opener (Kong) ... so on more weekend where we're falling behind 2017.

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Red Sparrow	165.041	550	300	426.310	4.068.379	-16	2
2	Black Panther	149.703	588	255	1.309.377	14.288.263	-31	4
3	The Post	130.273	458	284	595.260	5.127.745	-16	3
4	Fifty Shades of Grey 3	102.651	552	186	2.812.470	25.667.063	-41	5
5	Die kleine Hexe	68.455	794	86	1.306.314	8.573.159	-30	6
6	Game Night	65.387	443	148	195.132	1.646.670	-37	2
7	Vielmachglas	64.446	360	179	78.522	657.189	-	1
8	Die Biene Maja 2	63.362	519	122	167.010	1.151.741	-30	2
9	The Shape of Water	59.640	380	157	318.468	2.667.684	+64	4
10	Wendy 2	49.672	610	81	281.883	1.857.600	-36	3
11	Death Wish	47.459	284	167	47.459	427.383	-	1
12	Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	37.921	439	86	603.680	4.831.214	+18	7
13	Wonder	30.470	526	58	1.032.397	8.148.361	-42	7
14	Hilfe, ich hab meine Eltern geschrumpft	27.834	457	61	793.739	5.140.545	-23	8
15	Das schweigende Klassenzimmer	27.206	112	243	88.011	697.609	-26	2
16	Heilstätten	21.252	301	71	138.548	1.227.767	-46	3
17	Call Me By Your Name	20.202	111	182	69.519	580.254	-21	2
18	Arthur & Claire	19.175	90	213	31.738	237.079	-	1
19	Molly's Game	17.158	224	77	40.147	279.820	-	1
20	Aicecek Saskiniz	15.368	51	301	15.368	150.786	-	1

 

If it were not for the flopping openers, this might have been a very decent weekend - good holds all around and even increases for some award winners. But with those openers, it's still nearly 20% down from the corresponding 2017 numbers …

Next weekend: Tomb Raider should take the lead and on the domestic side, the latest Fünf Freunde release is targeting the family market - let's see if it can live up to the series' very reliable standard of 1mil admissions total! With those rather soft openers, expect good holds once more but an overall boring weekend.

[fastclock]

Based on the average ticket price, Black Panther might lead the weekend in euro: around e1.63 million vs. e1.57 million.

[Aristis]

2 hours ago, fastclock said:

Based on the average ticket price, Black Panther might lead the weekend in euro: around e1.63 million vs. e1.57 million.

It did: €1.614.925 to €1.606.401

[el sid]

The Thursday estimates from insidekino.de/forum: A bit of a Déjà-vu, struggling new, stronger older films:

The new releases:

Tomb Raider: 21.5k (released in 573 theaters, mixed reviews between 4 and 8/10, WOM from previews ist good) – could be better but not too bad and I hope for walk-ups
Fünf Freunde und das Tal der Dinosaurier: ?k (560, ok reviews)
Mary Magdalene: 2.5k (350, mixed reviews between 4 and 8/10 but mostly quite good)
Earth: One Amazing Day: 3k (240, ok and good reviews)
Der Hauptmann / The Captain: 2.5k (120, good reviews between 6 and 9/10)
Winchester: 2.5k (109, mostly modest or mediocre reviews, also some good ones)

The holdovers:

Red Sparrow: 16.3k (actuals last Thursday 18.4k) – very good and if TR is too frontloaded, this movie could stay #1
The Post: 11k (15.6k)

Black Panther: 9.5k (15.8k)
Fifty Shades Freed: 8.5k (14.2k)
Shape of Water: 6k (8k)
Game Night: 4k (?)

Vielmachglas: 2.5k (6.1k)
Death Wish: 2k (6.1k)

Edited March 15, 2018 by el sid