BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Venom	222.887	561	397	792.929	8.205.565	-28	2
2	The Incredibles 2	190.149	718	265	1.355.050	11.689.346	-31	3
3	A Star Is Born	114.722	460	249	348.958	3.148.518	-15	2
4	Klassentreffen 1.0	89.236	610	146	834.692	7.271.716	-30	4
5	Ballon	75.018	536	140	455.093	3.942.733	-23	3
6	Smallfoot	74.343	548	136	92.386	673.610	-	1
7	Abgeschnitten	41.832	199	210	43.404	420.104	-	1
8	The Nun	31.561	402	79	864.879	7.733.462	-32	6
9	Bad Times at the El Royale	26.459	221	120	28.703	255.965	-	1
10	Werk ohne Autor	23.818	252	95	99.581	1.011.971	-36	2
11	Pettersson und Findus - Findus zieht um	20.420	653	31	368.435	2.357.902	-39	5
12	The House With a Clock in its Wall	18.755	404	46	274.934	2.034.432	-39	4
13	Das schönste Mädchen der Welt	18.363	306	60	438.199	3.334.229	-22	6
14	Hotel Transylvania 3	15.759	424	37	2.455.778	17.945.920	-32	13
15	The Happytime Murders	15.736	197	80	34.907	238.942	-	1
16	Book Club	11.506	289	40	304.890	2.548.268	-40	5
17	Mackie Messer - Brechts 3Groschenfilm	8.148	178	46	174.486	1.488.338	-36	5
18	Wackersdorf	6.818	115	59	88.418	686.474	-28	4
19	Sauerkrautkoma	5.879	160	37	977.147	7.790.664	-32	10
20	Todos lo saben	5.367	108	50	56.951	485.892	-43	3

 

Not a weekend for the openers … some good drops, especially from A Star is Born and Ballon.

Next weekend: With the 3rd Johnny English film, we have a good opener, but it will probably open a lot weaker than the last one. Still, somewhat around 250k should make it a safe winner for the weekend! Nothing else looks very interesting so holdovers should see decent holds once more.

[IndustriousAngel]

wow, another disappointment ... opening day for Johnny English 3 and going by my theater, my 250k prediction seems too optimistic. By far. Strongest evening movies here are Der Trafikant and A Star is Born; Der Vorname nearly empty (but that was to be expected in Austria, it should do much better on the home market)

[George Parr]

On 10/14/2018 at 10:00 AM, Brainbug said:

 

Löw just didnt know when to quit (kinda like Merkel, but i dont really want to dive into politics). His style and tactic is just old now, every team on the planet knows how to play against us succesfully. We need a new trainer as soon as possible imo.

I don't know if the tactics really don't work anymore, it's more like the players that are needed for it are mostly gone now without a proper replacement. It used to be that there was a strong central defense that had good speed and could deliver long-range passes, allowing for quick movement up the field to prevent the opponent from setting up a tight defense after being on the offense. Followed up by a central midfield that worked both ways and a center forward who could score and who had strong instincts for passing-plays into the box.

 

That has basically stopped, with Hummels being somewhat slow and lacklustre in his passes, and Boateng being a walking muscle-injury. The midfield stopped working, mostly because Kroos is devoid of speed and defensive abilities, which requires a strong defensive midfielder to clear up behind him. Khedira stopped being that player because for some reason he started to think of himself as a box-to-box player, which just doesn't work when Kroos cannot cover for him. The only player who has looked pretty good in the needed role was Rudy for 30 minutes during the World Cup, until he had to leave the game due to an injury. He never got another chance afterwards, and no one like him was tried either. Moving Kimmich there is just desperation. Losing Klose might have been the biggest blow though. He was a very good goalscorer, excellent at give-and-goes, with a strong backcheck. That was the perfect fit for the German system. There is no one like him around, and a huge lack of forwards in general. It seems like the German youth system has led to a shortage in certain positions, creating tons of jack-of-all-trades instead of making sure all kinds of players existed.

 

With Löw's stupid handling of the Wagner-situation, there isn't really anyone remotely resembling a physical striker anymore either. Not that Wagner was particularly good, but he had his advantages and was suitable for a specific role.

 

And then there is the issue of Löw seemingly not training specific set-plays going into the box. It's like everyone knows how to move up the pitch, but once they arrive near the box there isn't really a coherent plan, so everything runs on players improvising. That only works if the players think very similarly and/or if you have someone so brilliant that it doesn't really matter because they will score in bunches anyway.

[Brainbug]

31 minutes ago, George Parr said:

I don't know if the tactics really don't work anymore, it's more like the players that are needed for it are mostly gone now without a proper replacement. It used to be that there was a strong central defense that had good speed and could deliver long-range passes, allowing for quick movement up the field to prevent the opponent from setting up a tight defense after being on the offense. Followed up by a central midfield that worked both ways and a center forward who could score and who had strong instincts for passing-plays into the box.

 

That has basically stopped, with Hummels being somewhat slow and lacklustre in his passes, and Boateng being a walking muscle-injury. The midfield stopped working, mostly because Kroos is devoid of speed and defensive abilities, which requires a strong defensive midfielder to clear up behind him. Khedira stopped being that player because for some reason he started to think of himself as a box-to-box player, which just doesn't work when Kroos cannot cover for him. The only player who has looked pretty good in the needed role was Rudy for 30 minutes during the World Cup, until he had to leave the game due to an injury. He never got another chance afterwards, and no one like him was tried either. Moving Kimmich there is just desperation. Losing Klose might have been the biggest blow though. He was a very good goalscorer, excellent at give-and-goes, with a strong backcheck. That was the perfect fit for the German system. There is no one like him around, and a huge lack of forwards in general. It seems like the German youth system has led to a shortage in certain positions, creating tons of jack-of-all-trades instead of making sure all kinds of players existed.

 

With Löw's stupid handling of the Wagner-situation, there isn't really anyone remotely resembling a physical striker anymore either. Not that Wagner was particularly good, but he had his advantages and was suitable for a specific role.

 

And then there is the issue of Löw seemingly not training specific set-plays going into the box. It's like everyone knows how to move up the pitch, but once they arrive near the box there isn't really a coherent plan, so everything runs on players improvising. That only works if the players think very similarly and/or if you have someone so brilliant that it doesn't really matter because they will score in bunches anyway.

 

Great post. It seems youre a pretty big follower of football?

 

Löw i think has fallen into a trap before the World Cup that is still ongoing: He is thankfull for the players that gave him his biggest triumph - Brazil 2014. Players like Boateng, Hummels, Müller (and Özil, but thats another case now ofc) just dont have the form now that they had 4 years ago. You can see it in Bayern Munich as well. As a big Eintracht Frankfurt Fan, im split on Niko Kovac, but hes not the sole man responsible for Bayerns crisis at the moment. These players that i listed are the real problem imo because they have starting guarantess in the club and national teams even though they dont deserve it anymore.

But i think Löw gives these players still a bonus because they enabled him to win the World Cup. But Germany (and Bayern to an extent imo) need fresh players, young players, a new generation. Players like Sane, Brandt or Havertz are the next big names for Germany.

 

France won the World Cup because Didier Deschamps has 1 main criteria for his players: performance principle (Deutsch: Leistungsprinzip, im unsure if this is the correct English translation). That is what we need now in my eyes. Thats also why im for Ter Stegen replacing a Neuer in our goal, who is now just not the world-class-keeper that he once was.

[el sid]

3 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

wow, another disappointment ... opening day for Johnny English 3 and going by my theater, my 250k prediction seems too optimistic. By far. Strongest evening movies here are Der Trafikant and A Star is Born; Der Vorname nearly empty (but that was to be expected in Austria, it should do much better on the home market)

From Thursday estimates (but that's of course only our with a grain of salt-estimates) it looks better for both movies. Johnny English 3 had 33.5k admissions today, Der Vorname 11.5k, Ballon seems to have a good hold again and ASIB too which is neck and neck with Venom.

[IndustriousAngel]

First estimates:

#1: JE3 - 225k (not as bad as I feared)

#2: Venom - 150k (-33%)

#3: I2 - 125k (-34%)

#4: ASiB - 100k (-12%)

#5: Vorname - 110k incl. previews

[el sid]

And some Thursday actuals (source: Blickpunkt Film):

The new releases:

Johnny English 3 (released in 645 theaters, the first movie had 3.46M total admissions, the successor 1.63M): 35k/ 304k US$
Der Vorname (means The Given Name, a German remake of the French comedy, 250 theaters): 13k
The Guilty: 1k

The holdovers:

Venom: 22k (actuals last Thursday 35k)
TI2: 20k (33k)
ASIB: 16k (20k) - again very good

[Omni]

Yet another mediocre hold for I2.

Is there a connection between Germany, Italy and Greece being depressed (and depressing) markets, and HT3 somehow managing to beat Incredibles 2 in all of them?

[IndustriousAngel]

34 minutes ago, Omni said:

Yet another mediocre hold for I2.

Is there a connection between Germany, Italy and Greece being depressed (and depressing) markets, and HT3 somehow managing to beat Incredibles 2 in all of them?

well, we've seen I2 and it's a fun movie, but in the German speaking regions, animation is nearly exclusivcely a family market, there are very few grownups who'll watch an animated movie on its own merits. And for the kids, I2 isn't as fun as HT3 I guess.

[miketheavenger]

The 2nd trend has almost no changes except Der Vorname and ASIB a little higher.

[IndustriousAngel]

Estimates up for all releases! yay

[terrestrial]

Screen International‏Verified account @Screendaily 1h1 hour ago

More

Vue to buy German cinema group CineStar in $254m deal http://bit.ly/2PNCtAY 

[Taruseth]

7 hours ago, terrestrial said:

Screen International‏Verified account @Screendaily 1h1 hour ago

More

Vue to buy German cinema group CineStar in $254m deal http://bit.ly/2PNCtAY 

Wait, CineStar is already part of Vue...

What else do we have in Germany, apart from CineStar, Cinemaxx and Cineplex

[terrestrial]

20 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Wait, CineStar is already part of Vue...

What else do we have in Germany, apart from CineStar, Cinemaxx and Cineplex

CineStar belongs to:

Event Hospitality and Entertainment, formerly known as Amalgamated Holdings Limited (AHL)

There is no German entry for them, do here the English entry

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Event_Hospitality_and_Entertainment

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Johnny English 3	224.764	645	348	225.207	1.869.208	-	1
2	The Incredibles 2	161.828	676	-15	1.580.995	13.483.785	-15	4
3	Venom	160.277	580	276	1.022.184	10.494.338	-28	3
4	Der Vorname	113.238	246	460	144.981	1.234.063	-	1
5	A Star Is Born	112.033	460	244	515.508	4.624.414	-2	3
6	Smallfoot	76.882	548	140	192.850	1.383.650	+3	2
7	Klassentreffen 1.0	73.757	579	127	943.041	8.210.976	-17	5
8	Ballon	71.692	603	119	562.359	4.836.858	-4	4
9	Abgeschnitten	38.943	221	176	97.627	918.868	-7	2
10	Pettersson und Findus - Findus zieht um	22.299	571	39	399.303	2.548.422	+9	6
11	Werk ohne Autor	20.467	226	91	134.371	1.359.474	-14	3
12	The Nun	20.436	350	58	891.299	7.968.357	-35	7
13	Bad Times at the El Royale	17.794	228	78	57.970	514.146	-33	2
14	Yol Arkadasim 2	17.492	52	336	17.492	158.419	-	1
-	MET: Samson et Dalila	15.859	212	75	15.859	467.378	-	1
15	Hotel Transyilvania 3	14.331	345	42	2.476.428	18.072.257	-9	14
16	The House With a Clock in its Wall	14.098	325	43	295.965	2.180.784	-25	5
17	Das schönste Mädchen der Welt	13.521	334	40	459.831	3.493.574	-26	7
18	Book Club	8.470	232	37	322.678	2.687.594	-26	6
19	Mackie Messer - Brechts 3Groschenfilm	6.982	48	145	187.734	1.594.566	-14	6
20	The Guilty	6.576	58	113	20.656	127.257	-	1

Overall very good holds and even some slight increases; yet the big opener was a disappointment once more. Pretty good PTA for domestic comedy Der Vorname, should expand a bit next weekend!

Next weekend: A lot of new releases, quite a few of them horror-themed. Halloween should take the top spot with ease - holdovers with evening shows will suffer a bit from the many horror movies; on the bright side, bad weather should be excellent for family releases so expect some more good holds or even increases and an overall good weekend!

[Taruseth]

On 10/22/2018 at 9:30 PM, terrestrial said:

CineStar belongs to:

Event Hospitality and Entertainment, formerly known as Amalgamated Holdings Limited (AHL)

There is no German entry for them, do here the English entry

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Event_Hospitality_and_Entertainment

Yeah, sorry I meant that Cinemaxx is already a part of Vue and now they want to buy CineStar to which would give them a monopoly in some cities. As some only have a Cinemaxx and a Cinestar and some small cinemas.

Bremen is lucky they also have a Cinespace🤣

[IndustriousAngel]

First weekend estimates from insidekino.de:

#1: Halloween - 360k admissions (very good start; includes a lot of previews)

#2: JE3 - 200k (-11%)

#3: I2 - 175k (+8%)

#4: Vorname - 150k (+33%, nice)

#6: Venom - 110k (-31%)

#7/8: Smallfoot / ASiB with 110k each (+30% / -11%)

 

as expected, increases among family stuff; Venom got hit hardest by Halloween

[el sid]

And some Thursday actuals (source: Blickpunkt Film):

The new releases:

Halloween (released in 515 theaters): 50k/467k US$ - nice (and close to the estimates, probably in the colder time of the year when it also becomes dark earlier people actually fetch their reservated tickets )
Goosebumps 2 (344, the first movie had 264k total admissions here): 10k → 70k OW predicted in the first trend, in line with expectations
Wuff (340, a German comedy-romance): 4k → 35k OW
Hunter Killer (220): ?k → 25k OW
Wildhexe (191, a Danish familiy film): 2k → 17.5k OW
Intrigo (142): ?k → 6k
(so four films underperform).

The holdovers:

Johnny English 3: 20k (actuals last Thursday 35k)
TI2: 20k (20k)
Der Vorname: 20k(!) (13k)
Venom: 15k (22k)

 

Edited October 26, 2018 by el sid

[el sid]

The final trend shows some ugly changes for the family films :

#1 Halloween 360k
#2 Johnny English3 200k
#3 Der Vorname 145k
#4 TI2 135k - I first wondered if this is a typo but probably not, Goosebumps etc. went down too
#5 Venom 100k
#6 ASIB 100k
#7 Smallfoot 85k
#8 Klassentreffen 55k
#9 Ballon 50k
#10 Goosebumps2 50k
#11 Wuff 35k
#12 Abgeschnitten 30k
#13 Petersson und Findus 25k
#14 Hunter Killer a bit under 25k

[Aristis]

52 minutes ago, el sid said:

The final trend shows some ugly changes for the family films :

#1 Halloween 360k
#2 Johnny English3 200k
#3 Der Vorname 145k
#4 TI2 135k - I first wondered if this is a typo but probably not, Goosebumps etc. went down too
#5 Venom 100k
#6 ASIB 100k
#7 Smallfoot 85k
#8 Klassentreffen 55k
#9 Ballon 50k
#10 Goosebumps2 50k
#11 Wuff 35k
#12 Abgeschnitten 30k
#13 Petersson und Findus 25k
#14 Hunter Killer a bit under 25k

Should go up again tomorow, weather today is awful! But I2 being down 40k is sad