BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[IndustriousAngel]

4 hours ago, Brainbug said:

Conclusion: German BO situation continues to be depressing.

it's not only the "situation" - ok, Covid and now the Ukraine war are bad, but I still think a big part of the problems is way older than those problems and frankly, the chains had it coming (and seen it coming) for a long time and did nothing. overpriced 3D tickets, few 2d shows (and those on smaller screens with worse audio), overpriced concession, too little pushing of domestic maybe-hits, too much subservience to big distributors ...

[Taruseth]

23 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Minion 2 should benefit from the summer school holiday weekdays that is currently underway right? The early number show that most of the countries don’t see the type of minion fatigue that we are seeing here in Germany. I hope summer school holiday compensate the loss, as long as the weather can be kinder to cinema. 
 

as for TGM, tenet made another 600k admission after a 146k weekend. Not exactly comparable but I think 3m is definitely possible because of empty competition in late July to August. Again, the hope is built on more rainy July after intense heatwave in June. Even with 5x legs from 613k opening, TGM holding power here in Germany actually fall behind of what we have in USA, what a rare defeat for a leggy market like Germany. 
 

 

They should - as you stated the weather will be important in that regard.

 

I am thinking the same, in my somewhat optimistic post about the yearly top 3 I have it at 3.1m

That all depends on how you count the legs - meaning what you count as Opening Weekend - only the true weekend (weekend + previews or weekend + Wednesday opening) - I tend to do only Thursday trough Sunday as that's what most movies get.

Which puts movies like TFA at a slight disadvantage as they get midnight-reviews - so part of Thursday.

 

Comparing legs between markets is in general complicated as Weekends are between 2 and 5 days - its way harder getting a big multi from a 5 day weekend than it is from a 2 day weekend.

But, yes, the multi for TGM in Germany is relatively bad - despite it (if we take the 3.1m) ending with a 5.06x / 5.84 - the US will end around 5.8? 735m.

 

 

 

21 hours ago, Brainbug said:

Good thing: Minions 2 underperforming compared to its predecessor. Little fuckers.

 

Bad thing: Means that theaters wont be saved by this movie either.

 

Conclusion: German BO situation continues to be depressing.

Let's hop Avatar will do really well

 

But honestly to save the cinemas Avatar would probably need to do a titanic like run but starting with TFAs opening weekend.

 

17 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

it's not only the "situation" - ok, Covid and now the Ukraine war are bad, but I still think a big part of the problems is way older than those problems and frankly, the chains had it coming (and seen it coming) for a long time and did nothing. overpriced 3D tickets, few 2d shows (and those on smaller screens with worse audio), overpriced concession, too little pushing of domestic maybe-hits, too much subservience to big distributors ...

Yeah, cinema going peaked in the early 2000s (2001 with 177.9m) and since then has been in a steady decline - the only years that really managed to bug the trend were 2009 (largest since 2004) and 2015 (largest since 2009) and both had one thing in common a bunch of big blockbusters (2009 had 3x 6m movies, 2015 had 4x) - 2012 also had 4x 6m movies and was the second largest year of the past decade.

 

Before corona I already expected 2020 to come in below 100m - don't know when we will get back above that line.

2024?

Thinking this year could be heading for 60-70m

2023 for 80-90 and 100m in 2024?

I am probably being too optimistic.

 

 

third trend:

Minions: 460k

JWD: 130k

TGM: 122.5k

Elvis: 60k

Black Phone: 40k

Menschheit: 30k

[Taruseth]

W at CS Lübeck:

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		4	158	921	17,16

 

W at the 3:

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		26	939	8519	11,02

 

TFSS at the 3:

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		73	843	30323	2,78

 

Comps vor OD at CS Lübeck:

JWD => 127k

TGM => 106k

 

Comps for the weekend at the 3:

W/OD:

JWD => 285k

TGM => 119k

 

TFSS/OWend:

JWD => 658k

TGM => 827k

 

I think I pulled the wrong numbers for TGM - were the previews that presale heavy?

Must have been.

 

This really is just to have more numbers in the future.

 

Didn't really have the time to do it before or to be honest the motivation: 

 

I'd say it looks okay overall - the OD will probably come in around 110k

But the weekend will probably don't come in at 650k or more - I'd say it (adjusting done for being Marvel) might open with 500k.

 

 

 

[altglascontainer]

Monday Trend

 

#1 Minions 450k

#2 JW3 135k

#3 TG:M 130k

#4 Elvis 65k

#5 Black Phone 42,5k

[Taruseth]

On 6/6/2022 at 12:44 PM, Taruseth said:

I expected a good day but not that good.

@charlie Jatinder Any idea how good yesterday was? 150k?

But that is a better hold.

FB3 would have needed a better hold; it might end up like this.

8th Wdays: 18k (total 2790k)

9th Wend: 45k (total 2835k)

9th Wdays: 20k (total 2855k)

10th Wend: 25k (total 2880k)

10th Wdays: 7.5k (total 2887.5k)

11th Wend: 17.5k (total 2905k)

11th Wdays: 5k (total 2910k)

12th Wend: 10k (total 2915k)

12th Wdays: 2.5k (total 2917.5k)

13th Wend: 7.5k (total 2925k)

End.

Chance for 3m is still there, but I'd say only like 30-40% likely.

especially if it has a great day today and manages to hold well next weekend (like 25k days and 35k Wend it could get to 3000k)

 

 

Puuh, I always try to do true weekend, primarily because that way adding days before the weekend doesn't help getting a big OWend, but, I know that, it helps with legs, movies that open earlier tend to have slightly better legs.

And it's Pentacost holiday.

So something like this?:

Previews: 83k

1st Wend: 530,5k (total 613,6k)

1st Wdays: 144k (total 757.5k)

2nd Wend: 407.5k (total 1165k)

2nd Wdays: 200k (total 1365k)

3rd Wend: 225k (total 1590k) (good weather and JWD)

3rd Wdays: 80k (total 1670k)

4th Wend: 160k (total 1830k)

4th Wdays: 80k (total 1910k)

5th Wend: 140k (total 2050k)

5th Wdays 100k (total 2150k)

6th Wend: 60k (total 2210k) (Thor)

6th Wdays: 40k (total  2250k)

7th Wend: 45k (total 2295k)

7th Wdays: 30k (total 2325k)

8th Wend: 35k (total 2360k)

9th Wdays: 15k (total 2375k)

10th Wend: 25k (total 2400k)

10th Wdays: 10k (total 2410k)

Adding another 100k after that 2510k

 

 

update:

FB3 12th weekend was 8k and it was 2913k at that point. So it still looks like it will end around 2925-2950k.

Regarding TGM:

This were actuals at that point or for the 2nd Wend Monday estimates -(+2k/-3k) means the difference on that particular weekend or set of weekdays and the difference in cume at that point and the way to 3.1+m:

Previews: 83k

1st Wend: 530,5k (total 613,6k)

1st Wdays: 144k (total 757.5k)

2nd Wend: 408k (total 1166k) (+1/+1k)

2nd Wdays: 215k (total 1381k) (+15/+16k) (115k of those on Monday)

3rd Wend: 240k (total 1621k) (+15k/+31k) (good weather and JWD)

3rd Wdays: 111k (total 1732k) (+31k/+62k) (pentecost holidays in part of Germany)

4th Wend: 180k (total 1912k) (+20k/+82k) (Corpus Christi on Thursday)

4th Wdays: 69k (total 1981k) (-11k/+71k)

5th Wend: 155k (total 2136k)(+15k/+86k)

5th Wdays 74k (total 2210k) (-26k/+60k)

6th Wend: 130k (total 2340k) (+70k/+130k)

6th Wdays: 60k (total  2400k) (+20k/+150k)

7th Wend: 105k (total 2505k) (+60k/+210k) (Thor's actual opening weekend but weather looks good for cinemas)

7th Wdays: 50k (total 2555k) (+20k/+230k)

8th Wend: 80k (total 2630k) (+45k/+275k)

9th Wdays: 35k (total 2665k) (+20k/+295k)

10th Wend: 70k (total 2735k) (+45k / +335k)

10th Wdays: 30k (total 2765k) (+20k/+355k)

11th Wend: 55k (total 2820k)

11th Wdays: 25k (total 2840k)

12th Wend: 50k (total 2890k)(4th August-all states have summer holidays)

12th Wdays: 25k (total 2915k)

13th Wend: 40k (total 2955k)

13th Wdays: 15k (total 2970k) (summer holidays will end one by one after this)

14th Wend: 30k (total 3000k) "Goldene Leinwand"*

14th Wdays: 10k (total 3010k)

15th Wend: 25k (total 3035k

15th Wdays: 7.5k (total 3042.5k)

16th Wend: 20k (total 3062.5k)

16th Wdays: 5k (total 3067.7k)

After this around 100k for a finish of 3150k-3200k

In other words: Germany saves some of its face with these holds - but still underwhelming compared to most other markets - legs wise this would be between 5.14x-5.22x (OWend with Previews) and 5.94x-6.04x (OWend)

 

Minions - this is a lot more shaky as weather can change it a lot - 40 °C everywhere could mean a 3rd Wend of 150k and then 20°C and rainy (but most light) could mean a 400k 4th Wend

1st Wend: 450k (total 450k)

1st Wdays: 150k (total 600k)

2nd Wend: 550k (total 1150k)

2nd Wdays: 175k (total 1325k)

3rd Wend: 300k (total 1625k) (really hot weather) overtakes TGM here

3rd Wdays: 125k (total 1750k)

4th Wend: 300k (total 2050k)

4th Wdays: 125k (total 2175k)

5th Wend: 200k (total 2375k)

5th Wdays: 100k (total 2475k)

6th Wend: 150k (total 2625k) (4th August)

6th Wdays: 75k (total 2700k)

7th Wend: 125k (total 2825k)

7th Wdays: 50k (total 2875k)

8th Wend: 125k (total 3000k) "Goldene Leinwand"*

8th Wdays: 40k (total 3040k)

9th Wend: 100k (total 3140k)

9th Wdays: 25k (total 3165k)

10th Wend: 90k (total 3255k)

10th Wdays: 20k (total 3275k)

Adding another 475k after this would result in 3750k

 

*in this prediction - if I didn't miscount - TGM and Minions 2 would cross the 3m mark on the same weekend (but TGM then is in its 14th week and Minion in its 8th week). But I think in the end Minions 2 will be slightly faster.

 

(Minions could also absolutely explode next weekend - if weather gets a bit more cloudy with some drizzle - I won't bet against the Minions)

1st Wend: 450k (total 450k)

1st Wdays: 150k (total 600k)

2nd Wend: 750k (total 1350k)

2nd Wdays: 300k (total 1650k)

3rd Wend: 500k (total 2150k)

3rd Wdays: 200k (total 2350k)

4th Wend: 400k (total 2750k)

4th Wdays: 200k (total 2950k)

5th Wend: 300k (total 3250k)

5th Wdays: 175k (total 3425k)

this could get the movie to a total of 5000k or more.) Predicting kids animation movies is something I simply can't. There drops can be a lot more frantic than those of other movies and summer is generally a hard time due to it being so incredibly weather dependent.

 

In the end I'd expect Avatar to get there during its 2nd week - with an outside shot (5 % or so) to get there in week 1 (helped by its first week being 8 days, due to it being a Wednesday opener). Football WM could obviously dent this a bit.

 

With how barren the rest of the year looks outside of December I think Avatar has the chance to get 100k in September - in a year with more movie releases in September and a big movie being released around the 3rd of October I'd expect it to get like 20k.

 

 

 

Edited July 4, 2022 by Taruseth

[Taruseth]

Also Thor will be the 15th MCU movie to do more than its direct predecessor - unless you count the not connected ones like Deadpool than that destroys it.

 

What movie will break this - for now I'd say it will be Avengers 5 - doubt that can get 5.2m.

 

Thor should do more than Ragnarok (1486k)

BP 2 should do more than Black Panther (1798k - I fear that his will be close though or this has a non zero chance of breaking it)

Ant-Man 3 should top 823k

Guardians Vol 3 should do more than 2516k (though this is quite a high mark to top)

Spider-Man - Across the Spider-Verse - the first did just 384k - not MCU - I think

Madame Web - new one

The Marvels - new one

???

???

El muerto - new one

Spider-Man - Beyond the Spider Verse - ???

Captain America 4 - needs to top 1735k

 

[altglascontainer]

33 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Also Thor will be the 15th MCU movie to do more than its direct predecessor - unless you count the not connected ones like Deadpool than that destroys it.

 

What movie will break this - for now I'd say it will be Avengers 5 - doubt that can get 5.2m.

 

Thor should do more than Ragnarok (1486k)

BP 2 should do more than Black Panther (1798k - I fear that his will be close though or this has a non zero chance of breaking it)

Ant-Man 3 should top 823k

Guardians Vol 3 should do more than 2516k (though this is quite a high mark to top)

Spider-Man - Across the Spider-Verse - the first did just 384k - not MCU - I think

Madame Web - new one

The Marvels - new one

???

???

El muerto - new one

Spider-Man - Beyond the Spider Verse - ???

Captain America 4 - needs to top 1735k

 

 

Thor is safe to best its predecessor, bp2 and ant-man 3 are also safe. But the problem i see is guardians. ds2 with its monster opening cant even get to 2.2 million, so i think guardians will probably struggle. And for The Marvels, i would count it as cm 2, so it would have to beat 2.1 million. so to make things short:

 

safe - thor 4, bp 2, am 3, cm 2, ca 4

struggle  - guardians 3, avengers 5

 

Thor Love & Thunder (July 6th) Ba-Wü Preview Seat Report T-2

 

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total	0	178	4968	36087	13,77%

 

Total Seats Sold Last 4 Days: 1764

 

Comp

The Batman T-2 - missed

0.521x of DS2 T-2 (0.89M€/83.750 Adm. OD)

Top Gun T-2 - missed

1.289x of JW: D T-2 (1.48M€/129.750 Adm. OD)

 

chugging along nicely. above the batman, top gun and jw D at the same time in my tracking area.

Edited July 4, 2022 by altglascontainer
included preview tracking thor

[Taruseth]

1 hour ago, altglascontainer said:

 

Thor is safe to best its predecessor, bp2 and ant-man 3 are also safe. But the problem i see is guardians. ds2 with its monster opening cant even get to 2.2 million, so i think guardians will probably struggle. And for The Marvels, i would count it as cm 2, so it would have to beat 2.1 million. so to make things short:

 

safe - thor 4, bp 2, am 3, cm 2, ca 4

struggle  - guardians 3, avengers 5

 

Thor Love & Thunder (July 6th) Ba-Wü Preview Seat Report T-2

 

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total	0	178	4968	36087	13,77%

 

Total Seats Sold Last 4 Days: 1764

 

Comp

The Batman T-2 - missed

0.521x of DS2 T-2 (0.89M€/83.750 Adm. OD)

Top Gun T-2 - missed

1.289x of JW: D T-2 (1.48M€/129.750 Adm. OD)

 

chugging along nicely. above the batman, top gun and jw D at the same time in my tracking area.

Love your tracking data

 

Also I'd say your two comps approaching each other in the coming days should get to a similar point as mine do so something around 110k looks probable - hoping for it to come in higher obviously.

 

 

The rest of the year will be kinda lame to track, won't it - outside of Black Panther (at least hopefully - I am not that certain that it can beat the first, it has to do that without Chadwick Boseman and Michael B. Jordan) - I think it really depends on how they spin the story and how they get the marketing - but November is quite cinema friendly and it can get the Christmas push to get it over the first, so you probably are right - Avatar 2 won't kill it because its December.

Wasn't certain if the marvels actually counts as a sequel.

 

Todays count will probably be easy and tomorrows will be annoying as the cinema will add a shit ton of showings for the weekend - it has 10 halls (the CSs have 11 and 12) - but it focuses these more on new releases - the CS Bremen often gives a new movie only 2 out of 11 halls (for bigger movies 3) while the CX gives 4 or 5.

 

 

Also insanely shocking Thor gets 8 3D showings and just 2 2D showings on Saturday (and Sunday) - HOW THE BLOODY F**** can cinemas think that that's a good idea - also I think the 2 showings sold roughly as much as the 8.

On OD the 2D 20:45 showing is at 217 / 353 while the 3D is at 137 / 624.

 

 

I don't want to know how they will do it with Avatar - I can imagine no 2D showings during the opening week.

[Sophia Jane]

Avatar2

2.5m OW 

9－10m Overall

110－120m+ eruo box office

Edited July 4, 2022 by Bruce

[Taruseth]

36 minutes ago, Bruce said:

Avatar2

2.5m OW 

9－10m Overall

110－120m+ eruo box office

Hopefully, but that would be, really impressive.

Do you take the OWend (Thursday trough Sunday) or the extended (Wednesday through Sunday) - 2.5m OWend (TFSS) would be second highest ever only behind HP1.

Also 2.5m OWend would mean 10m overall would be Rouge One legs - 9m would mean worse legs and that with the slight advantage of having a Wednesday before the Opening Weekend.

Furthermore this would make it the first year since 1998 (TITANIC) for the #1 movie to have at least double of the admissions of the #2 movies (in 1998 Armageddon)  for Titanic Armageddon that factor was 3.39x and before that 1990 with Pretty Woman doing 2.009x the admissions of "Look Who's talking"

 

Spoiler

Pessimistic:

750k

3m

37m €

Realistic:

1.25m

6.25m

80m €

Optimistic:

2m

10m

125m € (could be higher - ticket price will be insanely high and probably one of the highest 3d shares).

 

What the cinemas need xD = won't happen

2.5m

15m

200m €

 

 

Also in the later case weekends would probably look something like this:

 

OD: 400k (total 400k)

1st Wend: 2000k (total 2400k) (11th 2m OWend ever)

1st Wdays 750k (total 3150k)

2nd Wend: 1000k (total 4150k) Cr. Eve and Day are very low adm. days

2nd Wdays: 1400k (total 5810k) (best weekdays ever)

3rd Wend: 1000k (total 6810k)*

3rd Wdays: 600k (total 7410k)

4th Wend: 790k (total 8200k) (#9 all time)

4th Wdays: 200k (total 8400k)

5th Wend: 500k (total 8900k)

5th Wdays: 100k (total 9000k)

6th Wend: 300k (total 9300k)

6th Wdays: 50k (total 9350k)

7th Wend: 200k (total 9550k)

7th Wdays: 30k (total 9580k)

8th Wend: 150k (total 9730k)

8th Wdays: 20k (total 9750k)

9th Wend: 100k (total 9850k)

9th Wdays: 20k (total 9870k)

10th Wend: 70k (total 9940k)

10th Wdays: 20k (total 9960k)

11th Wend: 50k (total 10010k)

11th Wdays: 10k (total 10020k)

12th Wend: 30k (total 10050k)

12th Wdays: 5k (total 10055k)

rest of the rung 45k -> total: 10100k

* depending on reception this could be anywhere from 700k-1400k (with that obviously changing the rest of the run from something below 9m to above 11m)

 

Just for the fun: A 2500k OWend - would need good reception and should look like this:

OD: 500k (total 500k)

1st Wend: 2500k (total 3000k) (#2 all time)

1st Wdays 950k (total 3950k)

2nd Wend: 1200k (total 5150k) Cr. Eve and Day are very low adm. days

2nd Wdays: 1750k (total 6900k)** (best weekdays ever)

3rd Wend: 1300k (total 8200k) (#3 all time)

3rd Wdays: 800k (total 9000k)

4th Wend: 900k (total 9900k) (#4 all time)

4th Wdays: 200k (total 10100k)

5th Wend: 600k (total 10700k) (#4 all time right around Avatar)

5th Wdays: 200k (total 10900k)

6th Wend: 400k (total 11300k)

6th Wdays: 100k (total 11400k)

7th Wend: 300k (total 11700k)

7th Wdays: 70k (total 11770k)

8th Wend: 150k (total 11920k)

8th Wdays: 30k (total 11950k)

9th Wend: 100k (total 12050k)

9th Wdays: 20k (total 12070k)

10th Wend: 70k (total 12140k)

10th Wdays: 20k (total 12160k)

11th Wend: 50k (total 12210k)

11th Wdays: 10k (total 12220k)

12th Wend: 30k (total 12250k)

12th Wdays: 5k (total 12255k)

rest of the run 45k -> total: 12300k

 

this would be #2 Opening Week, #1 second week, #1 third week, 

 

** this is the same Wdays share as Rouge One had - having 26th, 27th and 28th as Wdays is insane! Probably will be lower though.

 

What it should do at least?:

Just look at Rouge One - coming in below that would be really, really bad.

 

So please don't be disappointed if it gets no where close to that - I am also hoping for it to blow everything away and having the OWend record finally being broken would bee insane, but right now I don't believe that will happen - what has a 0% chance of happening is the 2nd Wend record being broken. Can imagine 3rd Wend though.

 

Regarding €:

Breaking that record will be somewhat easier  but still really hard - taking an ATP of €13 it would need 1950k admission (that would put it barely above TFA)

Getting 2nd place in that list is way easier, Avatar needs to do (ATP €13) just 1520k to get a gross barely above SW TLJ.

Edited July 4, 2022 by Taruseth

[Taruseth]

On 7/4/2022 at 12:58 AM, Taruseth said:

[03rd July 2022 Sunday 23:59]

W at CS Lübeck:

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		4	158	921	17,16

 

W at the 3:

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		26	939	8519	11,02

 

TFSS at the 3:

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		73	843	30323	2,78

 

Comps vor OD at CS Lübeck:

JWD => 127k

TGM => 106k

 

Comps for the weekend at the 3:

W/OD:

JWD => 285k

TGM => 119k

 

TFSS/OWend:

JWD => 658k

TGM => 827k

 

I think I pulled the wrong numbers for TGM - were the previews that presale heavy?

Must have been.

 

This really is just to have more numbers in the future.

 

Didn't really have the time to do it before or to be honest the motivation: 

 

I'd say it looks okay overall - the OD will probably come in around 110k

But the weekend will probably don't come in at 650k or more - I'd say it (adjusting done for being Marvel) might open with 500k.

 

 

 

4th July 2022 Monday 23:59 MEST T-2

W at CS Lübeck:

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		4	206	921	22,37

 

+48 / +30.4%

 

W at the 3:

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		26	1110	8519	13,03

 

+171 / +18.2%

 

TFSS at the 3:

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		132	1098	45245	2,43

 

+59 showings (one that had barely any shows up put 40 new ones up)

+255 / +30.2% //+15013 new seats available

 

Apparently I didn't track DSMOM on Monday evening - so only - the awful com TGM remains - don't want to go to 2019 movies.

So for what it's worth:

CS Lübeck - Opening DAY:

TGM => 126k

3 ones - Opening DAY:

TGM => 139k

3 one - OWend:

TGM => 825k

 

Seems like for now OD isn't dropping, meaning it will most likely be overall okay - 115k for now.

OWend TGM is mostly useless - on Wednesday evening I can give better comps.

Edited July 4, 2022 by Taruseth

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top 8 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Minions 2	452.131	698	648	452.131	4.256.841	-	1
2	Jurassic World 3	136.651	604	226	1.512.805	17.203.041	-30	4
3	Top Gun 2	131.438	660	199	2.341.781	24.070.201	-15	6
4	Elvis	64.230	593	108	199.806	2.078.406	-20	2
5	The Black Phone	43.549	295	148	114.599	1.046.778	-9	2
6	Die Geschichte der Menschheit	32.872	462	71	173.386	1.549.882	-27	3
7	Lightyear	13.691	518	26	131.880	1.054.790	-65	3
8	Massive Talent	9.879	213	46	55.822	430.360	+27	3

Bad weekend with a so-so opener … let's move on!

Next weekend: The fourth Thor movie should become #1, maybe it can open to something like 700k admissions OW. And - theres another big opener, brave move from distributor Constantin, but domestic romcom Liebesdings might well become a hit despite the Marvel competition.   

[altglascontainer]

On 7/4/2022 at 12:42 PM, altglascontainer said:

Thor Love & Thunder (July 6th) Ba-Wü Preview Seat Report T-2

 

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total	0	178	4968	36087	13,77%

 

Total Seats Sold Last 4 Days: 1764

 

Comp

The Batman T-2 - missed

0.521x of DS2 T-2 (0.89M€/83.750 Adm. OD)

Top Gun T-2 - missed

1.289x of JW: D T-2 (1.48M€/129.750 Adm. OD)

 

Thor Love & Thunder (July 6th) Ba-Wü Preview Seat Report T-1

 

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total	1	178	5885	36087	16,31%

 

Total Seats Sold Last Day: 917

 

Comp

1.609x of The Batman T-1 (0.82M€/79.050 Adm. OD)

0.537x of DS2 T-1 (0.92M€/86.500 Adm. OD)

1.195x Top Gun T-1 (1.01M€/99.250 Adm. OD)

1.206x of JW: D T-1 (1.38M€/121.250 Adm. OD)

 

Ok day for Thor. I had hoped for a little over 1000, but it is what it is. For a prediction, its hard to say. my comps are notoriously low for the most part. I would say something like 110k, but could go higher if it follows JW-D traction. lets see what the last day of preview brings.

Edited July 5, 2022 by altglascontainer
wrong day in quotes

[IndustriousAngel]

btw, still boring numbers but in Austria, Minions2 did a little better than in Germany with 54k admissions on a 3-day-weekend. As mentioned, during the last weeks, Austria has always been the stronger market for most productions; usually we're maybe 10% ahead (per capita, of course) with international releases but in the last weeks, it's been constantly closer to 20% or more - Top Gun Maverick is locked for 400k admissions and is about 60% ahead at this point! Maybe Thor can pull a 100k opening (including previews)!

[titanic2187]

The start of summer break for major states, so Maybe Minion 2/ TGM can somehow redeem themselves from here. 

North Rhine-Westphalia : 27 June - 9 Aug

Bavaria: 1 Aug - 12 Sep

Baden-Württemberg: 28 July - 10 Sep

Lower Saxony: 14 July - 24 Aug

Hesse: 25 July - 2 Sept

Berlin/ Hamburg: 7 July - 19 Aug

 

 

 

[Taruseth]

23 hours ago, Taruseth said:

 

4th July 2022 Monday 23:59 MEST T-2

W at CS Lübeck:

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		4	206	921	22,37

 

+48 / +30.4%

 

W at the 3:

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		26	1110	8519	13,03

 

+171 / +18.2%

 

TFSS at the 3:

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		132	1098	45245	2,43

 

+59 showings (one that had barely any shows up put 40 new ones up)

+255 / +30.2% //+15013 new seats available

 

Apparently I didn't track DSMOM on Monday evening - so only - the awful com TGM remains - don't want to go to 2019 movies.

So for what it's worth:

CS Lübeck - Opening DAY:

TGM => 126k

3 ones - Opening DAY:

TGM => 139k

3 one - OWend:

TGM => 825k

 

Seems like for now OD isn't dropping, meaning it will most likely be overall okay - 115k for now.

OWend TGM is mostly useless - on Wednesday evening I can give better comps.

5th July 2022 Tuesday 23:59 MEST T-1

W at CS Lübeck:

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		4	206	921	27.47

 

+47 / +22.8%

 

W at the 3:

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		26	1363	8519	16.00

 

+253 / +22.8%

 

TFSS at the 3:

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		132	1438	45245	3.18

 

+340 / +31.1%

 

Comps for the CS Lübeck OD only!!!!!:

TGM => 130k

JWD => 135k

DSMOM => 125k

 

For the 3:

TGM => 151k

JWD => 243k

(But to be honest they only recently seemed to have gotten into their regular pattern again - for TGM the CS Bremen had almost the same presales as the CS Frankfurt, for Thor the later one has presales three times as large - or Bremen just loved TGM - though I have no idea why they would).

 

And at those 3 (CS & CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt) for TFSS:

TGM => 738k

JWD => 690k

 

I counted DSMOM at a wrong theater, so I can't use this and I currently can't differentiate what was sold at what theatre.

Only got data for CS Bremen where DSMOM sold 430 tickets for OD while only selling a 170 tickets for Thor, which would mean an OD of around 65k.

 

In other words: Numbers are all over the place - the CS Lübeck is really presale heavy, while the three others seem to be kinda erratic and the CS Bremen recently had presales pattern shift extremely.

But at the CS Lübeck they all seem to suggest an OD of around 125k (it won't match TGM or JWD due to their better walk ups).

Same goes for the weekend, the TGM comp lost almost 100k in the last 24 hours and will probably lose as heavily in the next 24 hours.

Now, if we take a 120k OD and try to apply that to the weekend we might end up with something like this:

 

120k

 

80k

120k

170k

130k

for a 500k opening weekend.

[jma22]

13 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

btw, still boring numbers but in Austria, Minions2 did a little better than in Germany with 54k admissions on a 3-day-weekend. As mentioned, during the last weeks, Austria has always been the stronger market for most productions; usually we're maybe 10% ahead (per capita, of course) with international releases but in the last weeks, it's been constantly closer to 20% or more - Top Gun Maverick is locked for 400k admissions and is about 60% ahead at this point! Maybe Thor can pull a 100k opening (including previews)!

Where can i find the box office / admission in Austria??

For me , Austria is one of the most difficult countries to find box office/adm in Europe (with Belgium , Denmark and Sweden)

[Issac Newton]

5 minutes ago, jma22 said:

Where can i find the box office / admission in Austria??

For me , Austria is one of the most difficult countries to find box office/adm in Europe (with Belgium , Denmark and Sweden)

Austria

 

For Admits - link

For gross (round figure) - link

For gross (actual figure) - link (sub need)

[altglascontainer]

23 hours ago, altglascontainer said:

Thor Love & Thunder (July 6th) Ba-Wü Preview Seat Report T-1

 

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total	1	178	5885	36087	16,31%

 

Total Seats Sold Last Day: 917

 

Comp

1.609x of The Batman T-1 (0.82M€/79.050 Adm. OD)

0.537x of DS2 T-1 (0.92M€/86.500 Adm. OD)

1.195x Top Gun T-1 (1.01M€/99.250 Adm. OD)

1.206x of JW: D T-1 (1.38M€/121.250 Adm. OD)

 

Thor Love & Thunder (July 6th) Ba-Wü Preview Seat Report T-0

 

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total	1	179	6979	36228	19,26%

 

Total Seats Sold Last Day: 1094

 

Comp

1.546x of The Batman T-0 (0.79M€/76.000 Adm. OD)

0.536x of DS2 T-0 (0.91M€/86.250 Adm. OD)

1.208x Top Gun T-0 (1.03M€/100.250 Adm. OD)

JW: D T-0 - missed

 

Compared to Taruseth, i am little more conservative. batman comp was peak corona measures with no walk-ups.

OD prediction 100-120k

[charlie Jatinder]

Since DS 2 comp remain unchanged, I would say 85-90K.

 

But I am told school holidays haven't started in Ba Wu so can underindex a bit. 90-100K seems about right.

Edited July 6, 2022 by charlie Jatinder