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IndustriousAngel

BO Germany/Austria: Frozen2 #1 with massive OW

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19 hours ago, Barnack said:

That did sound strange to me, didn't the allied had a vast program trying to deprogram Nazy in germany (that failed on the first generation) ?

Its about 0% to 100% only in the '70 like some formulations here seem to imply

 

And yes, there was a after the war program, that in parts was successful, and in parts, based in my POV mostly on the looming Cold War, was not successful, as the Allies broke with their own rules to get Germany as fast as possible back up to 'functioning'.

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Posted (edited)
22 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Bohemian rhapsody keeps rising.....breaking 3.6m total, open cinema is indeed popular. Are those open cinema mosquito-free?  

So the english word for "Schnake" can also be mosquito as I learned due to your post. That sounds so dramatically :lol:. And yes, normally a few small stiches are the worst that can happen without a spray, if at all. I'm also always impressed how many admissions are finally added with the help of these open air shows! 
 

According to insidekino.de Hobbs & Shaw is shown in 620 theaters this weekend, Benjamin Blümchen in 500 and Leberkäsjunkie in 265 (at least a bit more screens that the predecessors).
In my theaters, especially the mathäser, Hobbs & Shaw (in the biggest cinema hall) and Leberkäsjunkie (for the first time it has 6-8 showtimes/day) are pretty much neck and neck from presales. For a Wednesday both are doing ok to good. 

Edited by el sid
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Posted (edited)

Well, I definitely suck at Stochastic...

 

 

Now Wednesday:

3D 17:00: 34

3D 20:20: 96

 

2D 17:30: 105*

2D 19:30: 99

 

Total: 334

 

 

* This showing had insane late walkups it was at 51 basically 8 minutes before the showing started and 10 minutes after the start suddenly at 105, WOW. So it should be flat with Monday and Tuesday.

** This blew the previous one away even more, was at 25 just 15 minutes before and ended with 99, what? Today has been really weird here.

 

The comps are still Thursday and the Wend:

Thursday as a comp -> 176k

Weekend as a comp -> 157k

 

Initial thoughts:

Probably a little below 100k for Today, to hit that it probably should get around 225-250 tickets today. Which might not be too easy considering it got not 22pm showings and no OV showing. The Cinestar very rarely has them apart from one on Sunday evening for one movie on OWend. TLK got 3 till now, one one Friday and on Sunday of OWend and now on Sunday in its second Wend another one. This weekends OV should go to Hobbs & Shaw.

Should be below yesterday, but I am still feeling good about 300+k on the Days and think that 500k is a reasonable expectation for the upcoming weekend. Though that would actually give Hobbs&Shaw the possibility to open in #1 (think it might manage 550k - will try to do a count this evening unless it gets showing on a TLK level than I probably won't bother but highly doubt it considering it got no 3D). 

 

Won't count Leberkäsjunkie considering the local Cinamxx has one showing for it in three weeks and the Cinestar looks like it won't bother with it. Haven't look at the Metropolis in Frankfurt yet.

Btw. I included the Metropolis in Frankfurt because I had the feeling that more romantic/kids orientated movies tend too over perform at the local Cinestar and Superhero movies underperform. And wanted to counter that as in Frankfurt superhero movies look like they sell more than other movies but in general to not such an extreme degree. Might have not been the best but I don't know if I will change that. Had thoughts about adding one Cinemaxx in Hamburg or so. But that would probably make it to heavy in the north (Bremen/Hamburg). 

Edited by Taruseth
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2 hours ago, el sid said:

So the english word for "Schnake" can also be mosquito as I learned due to your post. That sounds so dramatically :lol:. And yes, normally a few small stiches are the worst that can happen without a spray, if at all. I'm also always impressed how many admissions are finally added with the help of these open air shows! 
 

Outdoor cinema can never happened in my country. Those schnake/cricket/mosquito's noise outside there can be louder than the dolby atoms sound system.  

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Posted (edited)
Quote

[...]

[Monday]

3D 17:00: 41

3D 20:20: 91

 

2D 17:30: 69

2D 19:30: 57

 

Total: 258

 

Which is above both Thursday and Friday.

Using Thursday as a comp Monday would be 133k!

Using the whole Wend (1345) as a comp would be 121k. 

 

So I'd say Wdays should be above 300k, which would mean a 2.4M total after Wednesday.

[...]

 

 

On 7/30/2019 at 6:04 PM, Taruseth said:

[...]

 

Tuesday for TLK:

3D 17:00: 34

3D 20:20: 85

3D 22:30: 7

 

2D 17:30: 25

2D 19:30: 115

2D 22:00: 18

 

Total: 284 (5&8 pm: 259)

 

Monday: 258

 

So the 5&8 pm showings are 1 ticket above yesterday.

 

Using Thursday as a comp Tuesday would be 133k!

Using the whole Wend (1345) as a comp would be 121k. 

Seriously this movie should have over 300k over the course of the Wends. And to be fully honest they should be on par with the last ones actually, but that is probably a little too much to ask and might be more of this theatre performing weird. I honestly am interested in what it will do this following weekend and honestly it would be amazing if it hold well so we finally have some positives things to say about this.

[...]

 

3 hours ago, Taruseth said:

Well, I definitely suck at Stochastic...

 

 

Now Wednesday:

3D 17:00: 34

3D 20:20: 96

 

2D 17:30: 105*

2D 19:30: 99

 

Total: 334

 

 

* This showing had insane late walkups it was at 51 basically 8 minutes before the showing started and 10 minutes after the start suddenly at 105, WOW. So it should be flat with Monday and Tuesday.

** This blew the previous one away even more, was at 25 just 15 minutes before and ended with 99, what? Today has been really weird here.

 

The comps are still Thursday and the Wend:

Thursday as a comp -> 176k

Weekend as a comp -> 157k

 

[...]

Monday: 258

Tuesday: 259 (284)

Wednesday: 334

 

That would be using the weekend 120k + 120k + 120k so weekdays together 360k, which would actually be above the first set of weekdays. And Wednesday at least locally seems to be the strongest day.

So I'd say Thursday should definitely be above last Thursday probably something like 120k (which would be 31% below the first Thursday the comp to last weekend is utterly useless).

 

with a 120k Thursday I could see something like:

120k

140k

160k

130k

 

Ups, that would be 550k and those increases aren't really nice.

 

 

Edited by Taruseth
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Hobbs & Shaw

Spoiler

Wednesday 31thJuly 2019 23:59 MESZ (T-0) Cinestar Bremen

Thursday:

2D 11:00: 0 / 280

2D 13:15: 22 / 425

2D 16:30: 18 / 572

2D 19:45: 130 / 425

2D 22:30: 11 / 425

 

Total: 181 / 2127 -> 8.5%

 

Friday:

2D 11:00: 0 / 280

2D 13:10: 0 / 425

2D 16:30: 2 / 572

2D 19:45: 111 / 425

2D 22:45: 6 / 425

 

Total: 119 / 2127 -> 5.6%

 

Saturday:

2D 11:00: 4 / 280

2D 13:10: 4 / 425

2D 16:30: 14 / 572

2D 19:45: 76 / 425

2D 22:45: 14 / 572

 

Total: 112 / 2274 -> 4.9%

 

Sunday:

OV 19:45: 0 / 170

 

2D 11:00: 0 / 280

2D 13:10: 2 / 425

2D 16:30: 9 / 572

2D 19:45: 10 / 572

 

Total: 21 / 2019 -> 0.1%

 

Total: 433 / 8547 -> 5.1%

 

Wednesday 31thJuly 2019 22:59 MESZ (T-0) CinemaxX Bremen

Previews:

2D 00:01: 6 / 143

(sorry but this must be a mistake, never ever have I seen this room like that, really weird makes no sense and also isn’t in their list of their halls, so no idea what it is. Doesn’t really matter cause sales are awful considering show starts in less than 2 hours. The official room with that number has 288 seats but looks totally different (and the rows are from the front to the back M, L, K, G, E, C, Z, B)

 

Thursday:

OV 2D 19:30: 38 / 259

 

2D 14:00: 2 / 143 (same hall, I am hella counfused)

2D 17:15: 15 / 143

2D 20:30: 50 / 143

2D 22:30: 9 /288 (a normal room, yeah)

 

Total: 114 / 976 -> 7.18% (+6 in Previews)

 

Friday:

OV 2D 19:30: 4 / 259

 

2D 14:00: 0 / 143

2D 17:15: 0 / 143

2D 20:30: 12 / 231 (that room should have 454)

2D 22:30: 9 /288

 

Total: 25 / 1064 -> 2.35%

 

Saturday:

OV 2D 19:30: 2 / 259

 

2D 11:30: 0 / 163

2D 14:00: 0 / 231

2D 17:15: 2 / 231

2D 20:30: 11 / 231

2D 22:45: 0 /143

 

Total: 15 / 1258 -> 1.19%

 

Sunday:

OV 2D 19:30: 0 / 259

 

2D 11:30: 0 / 163

2D 14:00: 0 / 231

2D 17:15: 0 / 231

2D 20:30: 2 / 231

2D 22:15: 0 /288

 

Total: 2 / 1403 -> 0.14%)

 

Total: 162 / 4844 -> 3.33%

 

Wednesday 31thJuly 2019 22:59 MESZ (T-0) Cinestar Metropolis Frankfurt

 

Thursday:

2D 14:00: 6 / 642

2D 17:15: 50 / 642

2D 20:30: 135 / 642

2D 22:30: 16 / 624

 

OV 2D 14:15: 1 / 202

OV 2D 16:45: 11 / 351

OV 2D 20:00: 39 / 351

OV 2D 23:15: 0 / 351

 

Total: 258 / 3805 -> 6.78%

 

Friday:

2D 14:00: 5 / 642

2D 17:15: 10 / 642

2D 20:30: 44 / 642

2D 22:30: 13 / 624

 

OV 2D 14:15: 0 / 202

OV 2D 16:45: 15 / 351

OV 2D 20:00: 2 / 351

OV 2D 23:15: 0 / 351

 

Total: 89 / 3805 -> 2.34%

 

Saturday:

2D 14:00: 3 / 642

2D 17:15: 13 / 642

2D 20:30: 27 / 642

2D 22:30: 10 / 624

 

OV 2D 14:15: 0 / 202

OV 2D 16:45: 0 / 351

OV 2D 20:00: 27 / 351

OV 2D 23:15: 0 / 351

 

Total: 80 / 3805 -> 2.1%

 

Sunday:

2D 14:00: 7 / 642

2D 17:15: 2 / 642

2D 20:30: 22 / 642

2D 22:30: 0 / 624

 

OV 2D 14:15: 0 / 202

OV 2D 16:45: 2 / 351

OV 2D 20:00: 3 / 351

OV 2D 23:15: 0 / 351

 

Total: 36 / 3805 -> 2.34%

 

Total TFSS: 463 / 15220 -> 3.04%

3

(T-0)

 

Th: 181 + 120 + 258 = 559

Fri: 119 + 25 + 89 = 233

Sat: 112 + 15 + 80 = 207

Sun: 21 + 2 + 36 = 59

TFSS: 433 + 162 + 463 = 1058 / 28611 -> 3.7%

 

Absolute overperformer at the Cinestar Bremen. And utterly weird halls at the Cinemaxx, looks wrong, maybe they are changing some parts so parts of them can’t be used.

 

Wend (wo Previews):

Aladdin: 493 => 619k

John Wick 3: 967 => 312k

Godzilla: 328 => 453k

Rocketman: 175 => 719k

Dark Phoenix: 333 => 394k

MIBI: 221 => 539k

Five Feet Apart: 85 => 1315k

Spider-Man FFH: 2058 => 223k

TLK: 2755 => 354k

 

No idea what to make out of this but saying it should get closer at the top.

Might get a Weekend like

TLK 550k (Yeah, no, probably H&S will take this place, though if TLK could keep #1...)

H&S 525k

Leber…: 375k

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Taruseth said:

Try Germany🤣

Endgame: 5.1M

Inifity War: 3.5M

GotG 2: 2.5M

AoU: 2.4M

Avengers: 2.3M

CM: 2.1M

IM 3: 1.9M

GotG: 1.8M

BP: 1.8M

(CW: 1.7M)

(FFH: 1.7M final total)

And I took the Top 9 movies.

 

23.4M vs 83M -> 28.2% or for the same movies it would be 22.5M or 27.1%. And even if all 22 are combined that still would only be 38M so still only 45.8%.

Moving over from Mexico since this has nothing to do with Mexico 😛      

 

So the MCU needs 45M more admissions before franchise admissions surpass country population (maybe slightly more if population is growing, but I assume pop is not growing fast if at all). At a rate of 3 movies per year and roughly 1.5/movie, that would take another decade still. If they move up to 4 a year and/or popularity increases to more like 2M average, would take more like 6-7.5 years. Looking forward to it :) 

Edited by Thanos Legion
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Posted (edited)

Hi,

 

I literally can't wait for Thursday numbers even so its just midday because H&S looks pretty good I'd say while TLK looks bad in comparison. But if the walkup for that are like they were yesterday then TLK should blow H&S out of the water especially considering it got more shows as it gets both 2D and 3D though in slightly smaller theatre halls. 

 

 

One thing bloody confused me for TLK though at the Cinestar Bremen they don't have a 8 pm 3D showing for it tomorrow, WTF, that show sold good all the time, that showing (and the 2D) is bloody important for it and especially on a Friday evening.

 

I don't know if I count H&S and TLK yet though. And I also have a problem I think I should count H&S 16:45 showing as 5 pm but to be fair TLK has one at that time too and I always ignore that and just start with the 5pm one. And even that way it would be 3 showings against 3+3 for TLK.

 

Based on presales right now (quick look, no counting) I'd say H&S compared to the US over performs here and might get something like a 150k Thursday and TLK ends up behind that with around 135k. No idea about Leberkäsjunkie. So this weekend should look especially nice compared to the one last year. As the Top 3 over the Weekend should be almost similar to last years total for the week for the Top 10, I actually hope for them to combine for more than 1377k. 

 

H&S:

2D 16:30: 72 / 572 (15:30: 42)

2D 19:45: 280 / 572 (15:30: 198)

2D 22:30: 129 / 425 (15:30: 41)

 

Total: 481 / 1569 (15:30: 281) -> +71.17%

 

So theoretically speaking using the Last TLK Thursday and the whole weekend that right now would mean:

using Thursday -> 253k

using weekend -> 226k

 

TLK:

3D 17:10: 34 / 322 (15:30: 16)

3D 20:20: 95 / 425 (15:30: 35)

3D 22:30: 18 / 170 (15:30: 0)

 

2D 17:30: 76 / 425 (15:30: 26)

2D 19:30: 127 / 425 (15:30: 45)

2D 22:10: 35 / 156 (15:30: 4)

 

Total: 385 / 1923 (15:30: 126) -> +205.56%

 

using Thursday -> 203k

using weekend -> 180k

 

Edit (00:45 MEST): That last Thursday comp is so a lot less useful than I expected for today, honestly am confused, thought it would be more logical but to be honest the weekdays were already kinda weird. Highly doubt that both movies will reach those heights. Especially considering TLK's first Thursday was only 175k.

 

(Initial text:)

To be fair though TLK at 15:30 is 25% ahead of last Thursday number at 17:00. Okay, should end up more than 25% ahead in the end because that would be 214 tickets. and I guess with those 5 pm showings it should get to more than 300 (Edit: It looks like it will end with at least 20% more).

 

Also this weekend will be Fast#9 vs LA#10 (lets ignore Alice #2 so #9 vs #9) and then #6 for that series for the souther part of Germany, what is it called. Also my 375k are way too optimistic probably hits 200k or so. Which makes the 1377k for the Top 3 still rather likely.

Also as the opening for TLK wasn't good lets at least hope the legs will be. Especially considering that TLK got the biggest 2nd weekend ever which is only behind its own opening weekend and behind Endgame's opening weekend for overall weekends.

 

Just as funny comp TLK 1994's 3rd weekend ist still the #10 largest ever with 1025k and its 4th weekend is the second biggest ever (only behind Titanic) with 976k so above its opening weekend. TLK actually in 1994 broke the records for 3rd to 8th weekend and week and it was the biggest movie in 25 year and still is the 9th biggest movie since 1963 (really fascinating about that I'd say is that 4 of those movies are from 1966, 1968, 1969 and 1972 and two! are from 2001). TLK this year most likely won't even be the biggest of this year and if that happens might not even make it into the top 20 for this decade.

 

9pm:

TLK and H&S should both have a Thursday above 100k. And the Cinestar Bremen seems to behave really, really weird as today is pretty big.

 

Just for add. infos:

Monday: 258

Tuesday: 284 (+10.08%)

Wednesday: 334 (+17.61%)

Thursday: 385 (+15.27%) (guess at 9pm: ~360?)

 

 

 

 

Edited by Taruseth
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Posted (edited)

Some Thursday actuals:

H&S: 115k (€1100k ≈ $1220k)

TLK: 110k (€1M ≈ $1105k)

Leberkäsjunkie: 41k (€325k ≈ $360k)

Pets 2: 23.5k (€170k ≈ $190k)

Benjamin Blümchen: 17k (€115k ≈ $127.5k)

Spidey: 15k (€140k ≈ $155k)

 

Estimates (insidekino.de) for the weekend:

H&S: 450k

TLK: 450k

Leberkäsjunkie: 175k

Pets 2: 100k

Benjamin Blümchen: 90k

 

 

Apparently TLK had 400k over the three weekdays up from 359k for the first set of weekdays. Which would mean that for the three weekdays the Cinestar actually overall was a good comp considering using the same multi as the weekend got it would point towards 411k. But it properly behaved in the opposite way to Germany or yesterday was an absolut weird outliner.

So with a 450k weekend it would be just 30k short of 3M.

 

honestly: I hope TLK will tend slightly better and gets to 3M on Sunday.

 

 

 

Edited by Taruseth
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6 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Some Thursday actuals:

H&S: 115k (€1100k ≈ $1220k)

TLK: 110k (€1M ≈ $1105k)

Leberkäsjunkie: 41k (€325k ≈ $360k)

Pets 2: 23.5k (€170k ≈ $190k)

Benjamin Blümchen: 17k (€115k ≈ $127.5k)

Spidey: 15k (€140k ≈ $155k)

 

 

 

That is promising for H&S. Can it have 500K admits for the weekend?

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14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

That is promising for H&S. Can it have 500K admits for the weekend?

the users at Insidekino's forum can do a prediction thing there too.

Average guess is slightly under, as in 491.700 admissions for the weekend.

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7 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

the users at Insidekino's forum can do a prediction thing there too.

Average guess is slightly under, as in 491.700 admissions for the weekend.

it should have good legs. How is the competition. I know Toy Story 4 is opening soon but this movie can co exist with TS4 and that wont be huge anyway. Any other major release?

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44 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Some Thursday actuals:

H&S: 115k (€1100k ≈ $1220k)

TLK: 110k (€1M ≈ $1105k)

Leberkäsjunkie: 41k (€325k ≈ $360k)

Pets 2: 23.5k (€170k ≈ $190k)

Benjamin Blümchen: 17k (€115k ≈ $127.5k)

Spidey: 15k (€140k ≈ $155k)

 

 

 

Is that a good figure for H&S? It's almost the same as TLK, which is now in its what, 3rd weekend?

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Is that a good figure for H&S? It's almost the same as TLK, which is now in its what, 3rd weekend?

Lion King is expected to be one of the biggest in Germany this year. Should not compare H&S with that. this is good number for most movies. I doubt TS4 will come close to that. it also looks like beating spiderman.

Edited by keysersoze123

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Any other major release?

H&S = 620 cinemas

Benjamin Blümchen  = A children's movie for the real young ones = should not show at late hours = 500 cinemas

 Leberkäsjunkie = local comedy part ??? in 256 cin#nemas

 

The owner of the website thinks 440.000 admissions for H&S btw and reaching #2 with that. He thinks TLK will be slightly over 500k #1

 

his chart is here to see with this browser I can't copy their chart presentation

http://www.insidekino.com/DProg/ProgAUG12019.htm

(bottom end)

 

Be aware, this complete week is the only week the whole the German states have summer school holiday together, might be a reason for the more family focused expectations????

The upcoming week is has still a big overlap

 

 

Edited by terrestrial
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Posted (edited)

First weekend estimates from insidekino.de:

#1/2: Lion / H&S 450k each

#3: Leberkäs - 175k

#4: Pets2 - 100k

#5: Benjamin - 90k

 

This is excellent for the family releases (didn't think BenjaminBlümchen would open that high, >1mil very much in play, and sub30% drop for LionKing as well as Pets2). H&S good opening; also good for Leberkäsjunkie (a bit up from last year's Sauerkrautkoma if true) - so overall a very satisfying weekend!

Edited by IndustriousAngel
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1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

That is promising for H&S. Can it have 500K admits for the weekend?

I'd agree with insidekino for now and say it will miss it considering it had a few but spare midnights and its opening day so it should trend okay but nothing extraordinary.

 

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

it should have good legs. How is the competition. I know Toy Story 4 is opening soon but this movie can co exist with TS4 and that wont be huge anyway. Any other major release?

Propably. TS4 shouldn't be a problem, I would be surprised if it opens above 400k. Honestly think that if TLK manages a good hold this weekend and barely drops next weekend (weather for that needs to stay cold and rainy) it could depress TS4 weekend even lower. And Once Upon a Time in Hollywood opens on the same weekend as TS4. That could hurt H&S a little. Especially considering that weekend two new movies should open above 300k while TLK should still be comfortably above 100k (if the trend over the past two weekends hold it should actually be close to 200k).

 

And after that I'd say it will be It 2.

 

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Lion King is expected to be one of the biggest in Germany this year. Should not compare H&S with that. this is good number for most movies. I doubt TS4 will come close to that. it also looks like beating spiderman.

TLK, Frozen 2, Endgame and RTOS should be the top 4 all above 4M while last year no movie managed that.

 

 

On 7/29/2019 at 11:27 PM, Taruseth said:

[...]

 

So, I'd say it should beat B&tB.

Especially considering this:

B&tB (total) vs TLK (total)

1st Wend: 864k (864k) vs 921k (1131k) -> +57k (+267k)

1st Wdays: 227k (1091k) vs 349k (1480k) -> +122k (+389k) (Summer for TLK)

2nd Wend: 503k (1594k) vs 630k (2110k) -> +127k (+516k)

2nd Wdays: 141k (1735k) vs 290k (2400k) -> +149k (+665k) (Summer for TLK)

3rd Wend: 309k (2044k) vs 400k (2800k) -> +91k (+756k)

3rd Wdays: 112k (2156k)

4th Wend: 216k (2372k)

4th Wdays: 159k (2531k) (Easter holidays for a part of Germany for B&tB))

5th Wend: 216k (2747k) (Easter Weekend) (This will be the hard part for TLK)

5th Wdays: 160k (2907k) (Easter holidays for a part of Germany for B&tB))

6th Wend: 153k (3060k)

6th Wdays: 29k (3089k)

7th Wend: 72k (3161k)

7th Wdays: 42k (3203k) (1st May for B&tB)

8th Wend: 47k (3250k)

8th Wdays: 14k (3264k)

9th Wend: 32k (3296k)

9th Wdays: 8k (3304k)

10th Wend: 20k (3324k)

10th Wdays: 5k (3329k)

B&tB added 101k after that.

 

Italics are just my crazy ideas. And considering how much I fucked up the predictions for the 2nd Wend of TLK I am not going to do any for the 3rd weekends, these are just some ideas that I had about it. Normal logic actually would suggest TLK to stay almost flat so a 550+k weekend but this past one was good.

TL;DR: I have no idea.

 

Now that would change too:

B&tB (total) vs TLK (total)

1st Wend: 864k (864k) vs 921k (1131k) -> +57k (+267k)

1st Wdays: 227k (1091k) vs 354k (1485k) -> +127k (+394k) (Summer for TLK)

2nd Wend: 503k (1594k) vs 631k (2116k) -> +128k (+522k)

2nd Wdays: 141k (1735k) vs 400k (2516k) -> +259k (+781k) (Summer for TLK)

3rd Wend: 309k (2044k) vs 450k (2966k) -> +141k (+922k)

3rd Wdays: 112k (2156k) vs 250k (3216k) -> +138k (+1060k)

4th Wend: 216k (2372k) vs 275k (3491k) -> +59k (+1119k) (TLK would become bigger LA remake)

4th Wdays: 159k (2531k) vs 125k (3616k) -> -34k (+1085k)

5th Wend: 216k (2747k) vs 165k (3781k) -> -51k (+1034k)

5th Wdays: 160k (2907k) 

6th Wend: 153k (3060k)

6th Wdays: 29k (3089k)

7th Wend: 72k (3161k)

7th Wdays: 42k (3203k) (1st May for B&tB)

8th Wend: 47k (3250k)

8th Wdays: 14k (3264k)

9th Wend: 32k (3296k)

9th Wdays: 8k (3304k)

10th Wend: 20k (3324k)

10th Wdays: 5k (3329k)

B&tB added 101k after that.

 

TLK follows that it should end up with 4.25M or so.

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On 7/4/2019 at 1:44 PM, Aristis said:

I hope Aladdin can get to 1,6M this WE. InsideKino predicts it to final at 1,75M.

 

 

Title

Total

OW

Multipler

1

BATB

3,430

0,864

x3,97

32,98

2

AiW

2,968

0,544

x5,46

28,00

3

TJB

1,877

0,460

x4,08

17,63

4

Aladdin

1,750

0,289

x6,06

16,00

5

Maleficent

1,467

0,359

x4,09

13,61

6

Oz

1,147

0,273

x4,20

11,62

7

Nutcracker

1,091

0,259

x4,21

9,10

8

Cinderella

1,068

0,274

x3,90

7,24

9

AiW2

0,831

0,199

x4,18

7,72

10

Dumbo

0,705

0,155

x4,55

5,30

*All numbers in Mio. Thanks to Taruseth I now have all OW actuals.

 

Actually, as seen in context of all movies, Aladdin numbers are quite well. With worse weather it would have made more than 2M easily, though it was massively helped by the lack of competition.

Aladdin will end with 1.925M or so which would be a 6.66 multi.

On 7/22/2019 at 10:11 AM, Taruseth said:

Monday morning estimates:

 

TLK: 920k (+210k = 1130k)

 

FFH: 145k (Cume 1240k)

Pets 2: 145k (Cume: 1450k)

Yesterday: 70k

Annabelle 3: 50k

 

920k*3 = 2760k (disaster) (unlikely)

920k*3.5 = 3220k (meh)

920k*3.75 = 3450 (okay)

Most likely to land hear if the past is anything to go by.

920k*3.9 = 3588k (somewhat good) 

920k*4 = 3680k (nearly good)

920k*4.1 = 3772k (good)

920k*4.25 = 3910k (good) (highly unlikely)

920k*4.5 = 4140k (really good)

920k*5 = 4600k (incredibly good)

 

Second weekend will be really important, if it's below 500k its more likely headed towards less than 3500k, if it's better its probably headed towards more than that. If it's, which is almost totally impossible, above 700k than I'd say it's headed to a total north of 4M.

 

Most likely will land around 490-510k, though obviously WOM and weather can push this in both direction, hot and bad WOM and we could be looking at a Wend below 400k, bad weather, great WOM and we could be looking at 600+k, which is also why this is hard to predict.

 

Soo if TLK actually gets to 4.25M would be a 4.56 of the 4-day and a 3.76x of the 5-day. The former (I know advantage towards TLK) would actually be the third best multi behind only AiW and Aladdin.

That furthermore means TLK is heading towards the "really good" territory after that opening weekend.

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Posted (edited)
On 8/1/2019 at 3:05 PM, Taruseth said:

[...]

 

H&S:

2D 16:30: 72 / 572 (15:30: 42)

2D 19:45: 280 / 572 (15:30: 198)

2D 22:30: 129 / 425 (15:30: 41)

 

Total: 481 / 1569 (15:30: 281) -> +71.17%

 

So theoretically speaking using the Last TLK Thursday and the whole weekend that right now would mean:

using Thursday -> 253k

using weekend -> 226k

 

TLK:

3D 17:10: 34 / 322 (15:30: 16)

3D 20:20: 95 / 425 (15:30: 35)

3D 22:30: 18 / 170 (15:30: 0)

 

2D 17:30: 76 / 425 (15:30: 26)

2D 19:30: 127 / 425 (15:30: 45)

2D 22:10: 35 / 156 (15:30: 4)

 

Total: 385 / 1923 (15:30: 126) -> +205.56%

 

using Thursday -> 203k

using weekend -> 180k

 

[...]

 

Just for add. infos:

Monday: 258

Tuesday: 284 (+10.08%)

Wednesday: 334 (+17.61%)

Thursday: 385 (+15.27%) (guess at 9pm: ~360?)

H&S:

2D 16:30: 85 / 572 (16:10: 58)

2D 19:45: 320 / 572 (16:10: 199) -> 55.9%!!!

2D 22:45: 180 / 425 (16:10: 41)

 

Total: 585 / 1569 (16:10: 298) -> +96% (EDIT: Apparenlty I can't add three numbers correctly, magically had added 50 to the total corrected it now (3rd August 19:55), changed all the other things too)

(17:45 expectations: 500+)

21.6% above yesterday -> 140k (take this with a big grain of salt)

 

TLK:

3D 16:40: 40 / 322 (16:10: 26)

3D 20:10: ~100** / 425 (16:10: 10)*

3D 22:30: 49 / 170 (16:10: 12)

 

2D 17:30: 72 / 425 (16:10: 27)

2D 19:30: 167 / 425 (16:10: 76)

2D 22:10: 50 / 156 (16:10: 13)

 

Total: 478 / 1923 (15:30: 164) -> +191.5%

(17:45 expectations: 400+)

24.2% above yesterday -> 

 

*They actually added this showing this morning! between 6 and 10 am.

** I couldn't count this on time, just have a rough count before it and when I wanted to make the final count I at first couldn't excess it and then we I was able to load it was too late and they had taken it down, this is a guess based on the generell pattern for TLK, though due to the late start of the presales for this I put it a lower than the comps would suggest.

Mmmh, looks okay. Highly depends on the 19:45 showing for TLK if the 3D showing ends with let's say 90 tickets that would be good, probably will ned below. Kinda hope the 2D showing gets to 150 tickets.

 

So... H&S is outperforming TLK here even in increases compared to yesterday, the 3D showing would need 129 tickets for both to have the same increase over yesterday. I might have gotten there but I wouldn't bet on it.

Don't know what to make of these. I'd say both should end above 450k, thought this would actually suggest H&S will take the top place. Damn, had hopes that TLK might be able to fend it off and ten stay on top for another weekend giving Disney weekend 15 and 16 on top which would mean that next weekend (#31) it would have have #1 for half the time. 

 

Short explanation for the cinema halls the cinema has one with 572 seats and two with 425 seats and 7 more between 156 and 322 seats.

 

EDIT:  I just realised that the last three posts were mine, I am talking with myself, lol.

Edited by Taruseth
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Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, Taruseth said:

EDIT:  I just realised that the last three posts were mine, I am talking with myself, lol.

Nothing wrong with talking to yourself, just with no one talking to you :D

 

2nd Trend:

 

TLK 550k (-13%) Close to 3,1M

H&S 475k

Leberkäsjunkie 190k

Pets2 110k (-18%)

Benjamin Blümchen 90k

SM:FFH 70k (-36%)

Yesterday 52,5k (-17%)

Die Drei !!! 45k (-22%)

Annabelle 3 30k (-14%)

Dolor y gloria 25k (-17%/-29%)

Edited by Aristis
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