BO Germany/Austria: Dune 2 fine 2nd weekend

[XO21]

*Sebastian Vettel voice*

 

mamma mia!!

[Olive]

RO OW -1.001.230

so 60% drop

[Istealnames]

10 hours ago, Valonqar said:

SW movies cannot be physically made under 200M. Therefore they need OS markets cause they cannot count on a breakout like TFA every time to earn profit from domestic release. And OS interest is steadily declining. 

With TFA getting such a huge domestic gross, it seems LF learned the wrong lessons. They seem to have made the movies inaccessible to new markets in the goal to pander the domestic market where profitability is much higher.

 

It's funny how critics pick bones with infinity war about not being self contained or not working for people who go into the (19th) movie blind, but do not see the exact same issues with movies like TFA, TLJ, RO or Solo, all of which depend on nostalgia to even get the basic plot and weight of the consequences of those plots especially for youth outside the US who aren't brought up with a similar cult like following for SW.

[George Parr]

400k would be below Rogue One's second and third weekend (450k and 460k), and not that far ahead of its 4th one (317k). Then again, those were during the christmas holidays and the weather was exactly the opposite, but still. Even if the weather would turn more cinema-friendly after this weekend, not dropping would still not make up any lost ground to Rogue One.

[Istealnames]

10 hours ago, Rebeccas said:

If Thor Ragarnok could be made for $180m then any SW film can too.

SW movies are bogged down by the stupid obsession with practical effects even when a similar result is easier to obtain from VFX, due to legacy issues and biases of its core audience. Bad planning and the flux of directors and scripts necessitating major reshoots in almost every film has also been a major factor.

[George Parr]

1 minute ago, Istealnames said:

With TFA getting such a huge domestic gross, it seems LF learned the wrong lessons. They seem to have made the movies inaccessible to new markets in the goal to pander the domestic market where profitability is much higher.

 

It's funny how critics pick bones with infinity war about not being self contained or not working for people who go into the (19th) movie blind, but do not see the exact same issues with movies like TFA, TLJ, RO or Solo, all of which depend on nostalgia to even get the basic plot and weight of the consequences of those plots especially for youth outside the US who aren't brought up with a similar cult like following for SW.

That just sounds wrong on so many levels. The movies already were in development, you can't just pretend that TFA came out and then they decided on what the next movies should be like. Those were already set in their path before TFA came out. They didn't pander to any markets, they made Star Wars movies in the mold of Star Wars movies. It would only be pandering if they deliberately changed something. If anything, ignoring what Star Wars is about just to appeal to the new markets would have been pandering, while risking the own audience in the established markets.

 

And in a lot of ways, TFA was already not working in the "new" markets either, which created the drop in the first place. Star Wars didn't end up this low in China because of Rogue One or TLJ, but because TFA did absolutely nothing for the audiences there. TFA was a case of the hype catching on everywhere, leading to an increase in the established markets above the norm, and a surprisingly high interest in markets that Star Wars either was smaller or pretty much unknown in.

[pepsa]

36 minutes ago, George Parr said:

That just sounds wrong on so many levels. The movies already were in development, you can't just pretend that TFA came out and then they decided on what the next movies should be like. Those were already set in their path before TFA came out. They didn't pander to any markets, they made Star Wars movies in the mold of Star Wars movies. It would only be pandering if they deliberately changed something. If anything, ignoring what Star Wars is about just to appeal to the new markets would have been pandering, while risking the own audience in the established markets.

 

And in a lot of ways, TFA was already not working in the "new" markets either, which created the drop in the first place. Star Wars didn't end up this low in China because of Rogue One or TLJ, but because TFA did absolutely nothing for the audiences there. TFA was a case of the hype catching on everywhere, leading to an increase in the established markets above the norm, and a surprisingly high interest in markets that Star Wars either was smaller or pretty much unknown in.

TLJ sertenly didn't help in China thought. 

[George Parr]

47 minutes ago, pepsa said:

TLJ sertenly didn't help in China thought. 

It didn't improve the situation, but it didn't cause the damage. TFA had bad WOM and put SW in a bad light. Rogue One did nothing to improve it either. That TLJ opened to (and finished with) that amount had little to do with TLJ itself and more with Star Wars having shown nothing to interest Chinese audiences. The only thing that maayyybee could have saved TLJ's numbers a bit, would have been if it had outrageously good WOM. Instead it was judged to be like the others.

 

It kind of suffered the same fate in China as POTC 5 did in many markets, including the domestic one. While ithe latter generally seems to be liked a bit better than the 4th POTC, the franchise just had already been hurt before to an extent that it dropped anyway. It wouldn't really make sense to lay (all) the blame on the drop on the movie itself, as it were past movies that caused the drop in interest already.

Edited May 25, 2018 by George Parr

[pepsa]

41 minutes ago, George Parr said:

It didn't improve the situation, but it didn't cause the damage. TFA had bad WOM and put SW in a bad light. Rogue One did nothing to improve it either. That TLJ opened to (and finished with) that amount had little to do with TLJ itself and more with Star Wars having shown nothing to interest Chinese audiences. The only thing that maayyybee could have saved TLJ's numbers a bit, would have been if it had outrageously good WOM. Instead it was judged to be like the others.

 

It kind of suffered the same fate in China as POTC 5 did in many markets, including the domestic one. While ithe latter generally seems to be liked a bit better than the 4th POTC, the franchise just had already been hurt before to an extent that it dropped anyway. It wouldn't really make sense to lay (all) the blame on the drop on the movie itself, as it were past movies that caused the drop in interest already.

I agree, but I said TLJ didn't help because in china. TFA had 2.4 multi, RO had a 2.2 multi and TLJ completely tanked with 1.5 multi from it's OW.

[George Parr]

3 minutes ago, pepsa said:

I agree, but I said TLJ didn't help because in china. TFA had 2.4 multi, RO had a 2.2 multi and TLJ completely tanked with 1.5 multi from it's OW.

That's not really all that surprising. As I said, TFA got driven by the hype, which prevented an immediate drop-off. For Rogue One, you got a boost due to having two chinese actors, whose movies also aren't heavy on the opening. That TLJ had a worse multiplier had very little to do with the movie itself, and almost everything to do with the state of the franchise in China, which was caused by the two movies that came before. TLJ didn't offer anything to change that fate, but the worse behaviour doesn't come from itself.

[FantasticBeasts]

51 minutes ago, George Parr said:

It didn't improve the situation, but it didn't cause the damage. TFA had bad WOM and put SW in a bad light. Rogue One did nothing to improve it either. That TLJ opened to (and finished with) that amount had little to do with TLJ itself and more with Star Wars having shown nothing to interest Chinese audiences. The only thing that maayyybee could have saved TLJ's numbers a bit, would have been if it had outrageously good WOM. Instead it was judged to be like the others.

 

It kind of suffered the same fate in China as POTC 5 did in many markets, including the domestic one. While ithe latter generally seems to be liked a bit better than the 4th POTC, the franchise just had already been hurt before to an extent that it dropped anyway. It wouldn't really make sense to lay (all) the blame on the drop on the movie itself, as it were past movies that caused the drop in interest already.

Seriously George do you think that it is not concerning for a brand like Star Wars to be making sub 500m totals worldwilde. I would call that a big disapointment even If they released a 2 hour clip of Solo sleeping.

There aren't excuses to be made. I don't care about Star Wars at all but to think that this performance does not indicate that a big part of the fanbase is pissed off is ridiculous. Solo finished it's presales run with less than what Rogue One did in it's first day. Those are not people from the GA that maybe weren't intrested in the movie, those are fans that boycotted the film.

[pepsa]

1 minute ago, George Parr said:

That's not really all that surprising. As I said, TFA got driven by the hype, which prevented an immediate drop-off. For Rogue One, you got a boost due to having two chinese actors, whose movies also aren't heavy on the opening. That TLJ had a worse multiplier had very little to do with the movie itself, and almost everything to do with the state of the franchise in China, which was caused by the two movies that came before. TLJ didn't offer anything to change that fate, but the worse behaviour doesn't come from itself.

Well no not realy, if the movie opens to 28m it should get (even with all the hype atleast 1.7-1.8 multi. 1.5 is just bad, Solo probably will do better than that. I mean you don't get 1.5multi if the movie is well liked. TLJ also scored the lowest on maoyan. I am nothing say that it's all TLJ fault cause SW was totaly in decline but that multi isn't to blame on TFA or RO.

 

 

[George Parr]

5 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Seriously George do you think that it is not concerning for a brand like Star Wars to be making sub 500m totals worldwilde. I would call that a big disapointment even If they released a 2 hour clip of Solo sleeping.

There aren't excuses to be made. I don't care about Star Wars at all but to think that this performance does not indicate that a big part of the fanbase is pissed off is ridiculous. Solo finished it's presales run with less than what Rogue One did in it's first day. Those are not people from the GA that maybe weren't intrested in the movie, those are fans that boycotted the film.

What exactly does this have to do with anything?

Literally nothing of that has anything to do with what I was talking about...

 

Of course the numbers look extremely bad. But I was specifically talking about what was going on in China, and your post has nothing to do with that at all.

 

And again, as mentioned elsewhere, no one - absiolutely NO ONE - has said anything about the fanbase not being divided. Repeating this absurd idea that people suggest that everything is fine is blatantly false.

[George Parr]

5 minutes ago, pepsa said:

Well no not realy, if the movie opens to 28m it should get (even with all the hype atleast 1.7-1.8 multi. 1.5 is just bad, Solo probably will do better than that. I mean you don't get 1.5multi if the movie is well liked. TLJ also scored the lowest on maoyan. I am nothing say that it's all TLJ fault cause SW was totaly in decline but that multi isn't to blame on TFA or RO.

 

 

Yes, that multi very much is to blame to quite the extent on TFA and Rogue One. Again, the franchise was completely done for after these two movies. There was nothing TLJ could have done to change about that. Those two caused a drastic drop of interest in the franchise, and if you don't get off to a good start and don't have great WOM, showtimes plummet right away, hence causing an even bigger drop than for the movies before. As I said before, TLJ didn't have good WOM either, but it also had to deal with a much much worse situation than the other two. It makes very little sense to suggest that TLJ should have reached equal multipliers to TFA and Rogue One, when those two had circumstances on their side; the former being the first one, with hype driving sales, and the latter with having two big chinese stars, whose fans tend to come in later.

 

You simply cannot ignore that advantages the other two movies had when judging these things.

[FantasticBeasts]

7 minutes ago, George Parr said:

What exactly does this have to do with anything?

Literally nothing of that has anything to do with what I was talking about...

 

Of course the numbers look extremely bad. But I was specifically talking about what was going on in China, and your post has nothing to do with that at all.

 

And again, as mentioned elsewhere, no one - absiolutely NO ONE - has said anything about the fanbase not being divided. Repeating this absurd idea that people suggest that everything is fine is blatantly false.

I am sorry George I just realised that you were talking about TLJ not being a reason for the failure in developing markets which I agree with.

You are so wrong about that last one though. I was told many times the last week that there was no divide about TLJ and just fake bots downvoted it on the sites. There are LOTS of people who believe there is no division.

Edited May 25, 2018 by FantasticBeasts

[pepsa]

Just now, George Parr said:

 

Yes, that multi very much is to blame to quite the extent on TFA and Rogue One. Again, the franchise was completely done for after these two movies. There was nothing TLJ could have done to change about that. Those two caused a drastic drop of interest in the franchise, and if you don't get off to a good start and don't have great WOM, showtimes plummet right away, hence causing an even bigger drop than for the movies before. As I said before, TLJ didn't have good WOM either, but it also had to deal with a much much worse situation than the other two. It makes very little sense to suggest that TLJ should have reached equal multipliers to TFA and Rogue One, when those two had circumstances on their side; the former being the first one, with hype driving sales, and the latter with having two big chinese stars, whose fans tend to come in later.

 

You simply cannot ignore that advantages the other two movies had when judging these things.

But I wasn't saying that it should have done RO or TFA multies. I was talking about the 1.7-1.8 multies. Movies with decent wom don't so 1.5 multies. I wasn't asking for 2+ thats insane, 2 = 1.5 * 2 because with 1.5 you only add 50% with 2 you add 100% so I never expected it to do 2 multi. But if it was wasn't as bad received it woudn't have only had a 1.5. Again I am not saying this is only because TLJ, I am just saying that if it wasn't that bad (for chinese audiences) it would have gotten itself to a 1.7 multi even with RO and TFA.

 

 

[el sid]

The Thursday actuals from Blickpunkt:Film:

The new releases:

Solo: A Star Wars Story: 80k/1.055M US$
Luis und die Aliens: 7.5k -> 35k OW, what a terrible weekend multiplier with that ok Thursday
 

The holdovers:

Deadpool 2: 60k (actuals last Thursday 110k) – I don't know why the estimates for this film were both times much too high, but now we were warned. Still, that number alone (60k) against Solo and compared with its opening day would have been pretty nice and without the weekend weather DP 2 would have a good hold this weekend, maybe the next one if that becomes worse weatherwise.
A: IW: 16k (23k) - nice
Truth Or Dare: 7.5k (8.5k) - really good
Jim Knopf: 7.5k
I Feel Pretty: 7.5k (7.5k)

Edited May 25, 2018 by el sid

[Taruseth]

30 minutes ago, el sid said:

The Thursday actuals from Blickpunkt:Film:

The new releases:

Solo: A Star Wars Story: 80k/1.055M US$
Luis und die Aliens: 7.5k -> 35k OW, what a terrible weekend multiplier with that ok Thursday
 

The holdovers:

Deadpool 2: 60k (actuals last Thursday 110k) – I don't know why the estimates for this film were both times much too high, but now we were warned. Still, that number alone (60k) against Solo and compared with its opening day would have been pretty nice and without the weekend weather DP 2 would have a good hold this weekend, maybe the next one if that becomes worse weatherwise.
A: IW: 16k (23k) - nice
Truth Or Dare: 7.5k (8.5k) - really good
Jim Knopf: 7.5k
I Feel Pretty: 7.5k (7.5k)

Solo is absolutely awful.

So 80k yesterday and $1.055M would mean average ticketprice is $13.1875 so a weekend of 400k with preview would translate to $5.275M... 350k without previews.

That actually means that my 'to low' $25M will turn out way to high.

Looks like a sub $20M finish, so less than TLJ OW (!23.3M)

I don't see this movie having a multiplier higher than 4x in adm.(TFA: 4.24 RO: 3.99 TLJ 3.62) based on that 3.5 might be the max. multiplier.

Based on a 400k admiral OW that would mean 1.4M admiral and * 13 (ticket price will be less in the end) $18.2M

 

[Valonqar]

4 hours ago, Istealnames said:

With TFA getting such a huge domestic gross, it seems LF learned the wrong lessons. They seem to have made the movies inaccessible to new markets in the goal to pander the domestic market where profitability is much higher.

 

It's funny how critics pick bones with infinity war about not being self contained or not working for people who go into the (19th) movie blind, but do not see the exact same issues with movies like TFA, TLJ, RO or Solo, all of which depend on nostalgia to even get the basic plot and weight of the consequences of those plots especially for youth outside the US who aren't brought up with a similar cult like following for SW.

[George Parr]

6 hours ago, pepsa said:

But I wasn't saying that it should have done RO or TFA multies. I was talking about the 1.7-1.8 multies. Movies with decent wom don't so 1.5 multies. I wasn't asking for 2+ thats insane, 2 = 1.5 * 2 because with 1.5 you only add 50% with 2 you add 100% so I never expected it to do 2 multi. But if it was wasn't as bad received it woudn't have only had a 1.5. Again I am not saying this is only because TLJ, I am just saying that if it wasn't that bad (for chinese audiences) it would have gotten itself to a 1.7 multi even with RO and TFA.

But that ignores the circumstances. In China, you either swim or you sink. By the nature of having a drastically lowered opening due to the interest being reduced by earlier movies, the movie got its showtimes cut down quickly and tremendously, because that's how they deal with it in China. If you don't start big, or show immediate signs of WOM, you are quickly in the gutter. This has a far bigger impact on a movie with a small start than one with a big start, as the bigger starters still get to keep more screens. Which means if your legs get cut out under you, you are done for. And that is exactly what happened to TLJ. The movie having better WOM wouldn't haver changed anything about that, it would have needed to be way above that of the other two movies to have any kind of influence.

 

And I'm not sure how one wants to define whether a movie "should" have gotten a 1.5 or a 1.7 multiplier. That seems kind of random. I didn't say that TLJ had good WOM in China either, so I'm not sure what exactly we are talking about here (not that it would belong here even if I knew )

 

6 hours ago, FantasticBeasts said:

I am sorry George I just realised that you were talking about TLJ not being a reason for the failure in developing markets which I agree with.

You are so wrong about that last one though. I was told many times the last week that there was no divide about TLJ and just fake bots downvoted it on the sites. There are LOTS of people who believe there is no division.

 

Where and by whom?

I have never seen anyone here suggest that at all. I obviously don't read every single topic or page, but I haven't really seen any regular poster say that TLJ wasn't divisive. What I have seen, is the (absolutely correct) statement that all votable ratings from places like RT are useless due to downvoting (not by bots, bots have little to do with that). That doesn't equal saying that everything would look great if you just discounted the manipulated votes. There are plenty of people who were unhappy with TLJ, and the true charts would reflect that. It's just that due to what has happened, the charts that we currently have do not reflect the actual situation at all. And sadly, there are certain people out there who ignore that reality because it doesn't suit their hatred for the movie.

 

Edited May 25, 2018 by George Parr