brazil Brazil Box Office Thread

[Shanks]

On 5/4/2019 at 4:02 AM, pepsa said:

Okay, 'tonight' became a bit later than I expected it to, went through IW's numbers gather as many as I could. (In 40 min).

I will just compare IW and EG seeing what the trajectory is looking like and doing some predictions based on it.

 

So for the comparison I will only use USD not R$ because this would make my life hard 😛 

Also I do want to note that IW ER was around 3.57 to 1 average EG atm is 3.93 to 1 (IW was 3.5 for it OW) 10% diff in ER alone.

 

Days	IW	EG
OD	$4,8m	$7,0m
Fri-Sun	$14,3m	$20m/$19m	OW
Monday	$4,7m	$3,2m/$4.2m
Tuesday	$4,7m	$3,9m
Wednesday	$3,3m	$6,4m
Thursday	$1,7m	$3,8m
Fri-Sun	$10,8m	?	WE 2
Monday	$1,6m	?
Tuesday	$1,5m	?
Wednesday	$1,4m	?
Thursday	$1,0m	?
Fri-Sun	$6,8m	?	WE 3
Day before Holiday
Holiday

 

So first off OD to OW ratio from IW was 25.13% and EG's ratio was 25.93%. (26.92% with Daily numbers) So EG was more frontloaded OW wise.

That said I do want to note that the $3.2m Monday is calculated based onthe 105.9m LC number we got on Monday other wise EG monday would be $4.2m and it's OW $26m and 102m lc but I will take this in to account.

 

Thursday is down -64.6% for IW whilst it's only down -45.7% for EG. This is incredibly big, I can't tell you how huge this but it's insane!

IW FSS was 6.35 times it's Thursday, EG won't follow this, it can't because it would mean $24.1m ($4.1m / $5.1m bigger than it's OW FSS). So we can't expect this. If we look at IW's FSS to FSS drop it was - 24.48%, if we use this on EG we get $15.1m / $14.35m. This would mean 3.78 to 4 times it's thursday. 

 

Even thought it might sound insane 3.78 times Thursday seems a bit low, so using the 4.2 - 4.3 times Thursday rate would give us $16m - $16.35m USD. Now useing the LOW OW number of $19m this would mean a 13.9% - 15.8% drop from OW FSS. This would be insane but sertainly doable. It's possible to do a 4.5x thursday (17.1m down 10%) but don't count on it happening same as a $15.1m ( down 20.5%) could happen but I think it goes higher. 

 

Now counting the $16.35m + $3.8m we get $20.15m Thursday to Sun that woul be down 25.4% from OW. IW was down 34.55% from it OW.

Don't get me wrong $15.1m could happen and would still be great. IW did 2.32 times it OW after the second weekend. EG is looking to do anywere between 2.2 - 2.25 (useing the high OW) or 2.28 - 2.33 times OW by Sunday. I think the later is more likely and a  $4.2m monday seems more logical than a $3.2m because other wise Thursday went up from monday. 

Also note that the close you get to a 0% drop the more 1% more less counts. To illustrate this I will give you this:

 

This is % drop compared to the Multi added on top of the starting numbers, after 6 weeks of these drops (starting with 1m).

65% =>  0.532 => TOT 1.532m
60% =>  0.654
55% =>  0.793
50% =>  0.953
45% =>  1.138
40% =>  1.352
35% =>  1.601 
30% =>  1.891
25% =>  2.229 
20% =>  2.624
15% =>  3.086 => TOT 4.086m

 

I will end by saying EG is doing crazy good buisness and the fact that it might hold (likely) better than IW comming of this huge OW is extremely good. My guess for EG's FFS is $16m (down15.8%) for a 60.2m cume and monday is $2.4m - $2.5m USD. 

Also this would mean it would be at R$234m so only R$1m below IW total run, on Monday EG will 100% pass IW!!!

 

 

On 5/1/2019 at 1:46 PM, pepsa said:

So now that I am back I will predict with some Caution btw, don't want to over shoot  😛

 

OD: R$27.5m  / $7m

Fri:  R$21.5m / $5.5m

Sat: R$28m / $7.15m

Sun: R$28.9m / $7.35m

OW: $27m

 

Monday: R$12.45m / $3.18m (strange diff from what is reported but for OW I used the R$105.9m reported number.)

Tuesday: R$16.6m / $4.23m

Wednesday: R$22m / $5.61m (Yeah I go crazy, May over OW friday  )

Thurday: R$9.5m / $2.42m

Friday: R$14.7m / $3.75m

Saturday: R$ 21.5m / $5.49m

Sunday: R$23m / $5.78m

 

TOT after Sunday: R$ 225.65m or $57.6m

Well this might be crazy good if it happens.

 

[Shanks]

6 minutes ago, GoblinXXR said:

 

 

Damn ER. A 5% rise over EG in LC but a 20% drop in USD  

 

No, It was 12.45m lc$ for EG. My mistake sorry, I corrected Mon EG was only 3.2m USD, and linked whole EG vs. IW day by day comparison by @pepsa

Edited December 21, 2021 by Shanks

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, Shanks said:

No It was 12.45m LC for EG. I corrected Mon EG was only 3.2m USD, and I linked pepsa's whole EG vs. IW day by day comparison.

So it beat EG Monday by over 40% LC but will only match the USD because of how bad ER has gotten. I'm still sad lmao. 

[ThatWaluigiDude]

BTW I think is worth pointing out that Comcast and Filme B disagree on the 5-day opening. Comcast reported R$103.7M while Filme B reported R$105M. Take it as you will, but the second number is probably more accurate since is was reported 5 hours later.

[druv10]

24 minutes ago, GoblinXXR said:

So it beat EG Monday by over 40% LC but will only match the USD because of how bad ER has gotten. I'm still sad lmao. 

ER have been in crapper for a while. If EG had Avatar's ER, it would well over 3B WW. ER's just worse in case for NWH to EG.

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, druv10 said:

ER have been in crapper for a while. If EG had Avatar's ER, it would well over 3B WW. ER's just worse in case for NWH to EG.

 

Oh I know. We did the math earlier and if NWH had TA1 ER it would do $250M+ between Mexico and Brazil. Today it likely won't do $140M. 

 

[Legion Again]

8 hours ago, ThatWaluigiDude said:

BTW I think is worth pointing out that Comcast and Filme B disagree on the 5-day opening. Comcast reported R$103.7M while Filme B reported R$105M. Take it as you will, but the second number is probably more accurate since is was reported 5 hours later.

The 2nd number is more accurate because it’s higher, box office 101  

[ThatWaluigiDude]

NWH: Tuesday + wednesday = R$29M. Total now is at R$150M+, already beating the projections for the month before it reaches the second weekend.

[ThatWaluigiDude]

NWH have made $31.7M up to now (R$200M+). It already beat Age of Ultron and is now the 4th best selling movie of all time, coming fast for Infinity War (R$259M).

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, ThatWaluigiDude said:

NWH have made $31.7M up to now (R$200M+). It already beat Age of Ultron and is now the 4th best selling movie of all time, coming fast for Infinity War (R$259M).

 

R$350M still looking good? 

[ThatWaluigiDude]

13 minutes ago, GoblinXXR said:

 

R$350M still looking good? 

It still can do it if the new year do some good for the movie. EG at this point had R$226M, we have to see the actuals on how much catch on it still have to do.

Edited December 26, 2021 by ThatWaluigiDude

[ThatWaluigiDude]

Matrix Ressurrection made $1,4M (R$9.5M+, where R$2M came from wednesday).

[ThatWaluigiDude]

My bad,I did the math wrong,Comcast is reporting R$180.6M for NWH. Is probably not passing R$350M. Sorry guys...

[john2000]

1 hour ago, ThatWaluigiDude said:

My bad,I did the math wrong,Comcast is reporting R$180.6M for NWH. Is probably not passing R$350M. Sorry guys...

final total 50mill or so in dollars ?

Edited December 27, 2021 by john2000

[ThatWaluigiDude]

Box office 23-26 december

	Movie	Box Office (R$)	Total (R$)
1	Spider-Man: No Way Home	31.568.000	182.841.000
2	The Matrix Ressurrections	5.141.000	7.200.000
3	Encanto	674.000	19.247.000
4	House of Gucci	79.000	8.900.000
5	Clifford: Village	21.000	2.990.000
6	West Side Story	16.400	595.000
7	Marighella	12.000	6.000.000
8	The French Dispatch	12.000	600.000
9	King Richards	11.000	1.100.000
10	I'm Your Man	11.000	11.000

 

Once again, I'm very sorry to mess up the numbers of NWH. Not-so-fun fact: the christmas hitting on the weekend instead of the mid-week actually hurted the movies instead of helping them. But the weekdays should be strong fo NWH, it still looks good for R$300M ($50M+), so have faith.

 

For Matrix it wasn't actually my fault though, it did underperformed the estimates. There is actually a lot of discussion right now about this predatory strategy, with many cinemas giving all of their screenings to just two movies, and even so, Matrix is having trouble finding space in middle of Spider-Man.

 

Next weekend relases Turma da Mônica: Lições (Monica and Friends: Lessons)

[Shanks]

Comparison CHART: @ThatWaluigiDude can you cross-check some numbers like Infinity War had sudden jump at 6th weekend, is that right?

 

Days		Infinity War				End Game				No Way Home
		in R$		Cume (LC)		in R$		Cume (LC)		in R$		Cume (LC)
OW		65.1				101.40				103.7
M/T/W		43.2		108.30		60.10		161.5		47.6		151.3
2nd Weekend		42.4	-34.87%	150.70		61.92	-38.93%	223.4		31.56	-69.57%	182.86
2nd M/T/W		16.39	-62.06%	167.09		28.20	-53.08%	251.6
3rd Weekend		21.6	-49.06%	188.69		32.20	-48.00%	283.8
3rd M/T/W		7.83	-52.23%	196.52		11.50	-59.22%	295.3
4th Weekend		10.9	-49.54%	207.42		17.80	-44.72%	313.1
4th M/T/W		4.66	-40.49%	212.08		5.70	-50.43%	318.8
5th Weekend		2.75	-74.77%	214.83		7.48	-57.98%	326.3
5th M/T/W		2.02	-56.65%	216.85		2.20	-61.40%	328.5
6th Weekend		5.05	83.64%	221.90		3.90	-47.86%	332.4

 

Red - Weekend to Weekend Drop.

Purple - Weekdays to Weekdays.

 

PS -

• Credits to people who posted weekly numbers in this same thread during their runs ~ and if something is wrong, please blame 'em ;D Have cross-checked with Mojo and Old thread numbers but ER changing everyday during EG's run maybe reason for error, otherwise, they seemed right.
• There are two OD numbers for Endgame and both NWH. One site puts 'em both low and one site puts 'em both higher, I took lower for both.

 

Edited December 30, 2021 by Shanks

[ThatWaluigiDude]

15 hours ago, Shanks said:

Comparison CHART: @ThatWaluigiDude can you cross-check some numbers like Infinity War had sudden jump at 6th weekend, is that right?

 

 

 

Days		Infinity War				End Game				No Way Home
		in R$		Cume (LC)		in R$		Cume (LC)		in R$		Cume (LC)
OW		65.1				101.40				103.7
Weekdays		43.2		108.30		60.10		161.5		47.6		151.3
2nd Weekend		42.4	-34.87%	150.70		61.92	-38.93%	223.4		31.56	-69.57%	182.86
2nd Weekdays		16.39	-62.06%	167.09		28.20	-53.08%	251.6
3rd Weekend		21.6	-49.06%	188.69		32.20	-48.00%	283.8
3rd Weekdays		7.83	-52.23%	196.52		11.50	-59.22%	295.3
4th Weekend		10.9	-49.54%	207.42		17.80	-44.72%	313.1
4th Weekdays		4.66	-40.49%	212.08		5.70	-50.43%	318.8
5th Weekend		2.75	-74.77%	214.83		7.48	-57.98%	326.3
5th Weekdays		2.02	-56.65%	216.85		2.20	-61.40%	328.5
6th Weekend		5.05	83.64%	221.90		3.90	-47.86%	332.4

 

 

Red - Weekend to Weekend Drop.

Purple - Weekdays to Weekdays.

 

PS -

• Credits to people who posted weekly numbers in this same thread during their runs ~ and if something is wrong, please blame 'em ;D Have cross-checked with Mojo and Old thread numbers but ER changing everyday during EG's run maybe reason for error, otherwise, they seemed right.
• There are two OD numbers for Endgame and both NWH. One site puts 'em both low and one site puts 'em both higher, I took lower for both.

 

Yup, double checked and IW did had a boost that week, just can't find a reason why, but it did. Thanks for your effort.

 

BTW to the other brazilians,have you heard anything about Morbius getting screenings? Looking at data from the last week and it popped up that Morbius sold 9k tickets and I am super confused right now...

[ThatWaluigiDude]

R$9.4m for NWH on monday, it now have beat the mark of 10M tickets.

[Danhjpn]

22 minutes ago, ThatWaluigiDude said:

R$9.4m for NWH on monday, it now have beat the mark of 10M tickets.

Good drop?

[ThatWaluigiDude]

12 minutes ago, Danhjpn said:

Good drop?

Quite possible increased from sunday, so yeah lol