Weekday Thread (11/28 - 12/1)

[JustLurking]

5 hours ago, jedijake said:

That might seem expected, but as we all see now, the unexpected should be expected. 60% drop from OW for Av2 due to Christmas Even Friday. Then at least a 20% drop in the third weekend.

Avatar getting worse drops than Rogue One isn't expected nor likely.

[Factcheck]

7 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

That seems fine for BF2, basically a spinoff that lost its lead in Boseman.

 

The first BP was a phenomenon, and it's really rare for sequels to match massive originals.

 

Avatar 2 better watch out. A fall is very likely.

So Captain America: New World Order is a spinoff of the Captain America movies?

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

So Captain America: New World Order is a spinoff of the Captain America movies?

I mean… yeah, pretty much? Going to be counted as a separate subfranchise by most people I assume, so NWO as a “first entry” rather than a sequel to CW.

[Legion Again]

Anyway that was a completely normal mon and tues from BP. It’s still headed for like 460-490, which is great legs from its d2-d8 period (removing holiday inflation). This thread is on crack.

[Factcheck]

10 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

I mean… yeah, pretty much? Going to be counted as a separate subfranchise by most people I assume, so NWO as a “first entry” rather than a sequel to CW.

We can call it a new Captain America franchise, but not a spinoff.

[jedijake]

2 hours ago, Legion By Night said:

Anyway that was a completely normal mon and tues from BP. It’s still headed for like 460-490, which is great legs from its d2-d8 period (removing holiday inflation). This thread is on crack.

I've adjusted my predictions to $440-$450 million. Let's see how it does this weekend. If the weekend is closer to $20 m than, say, $25 or even upper 20's, then it will end up in my range. If we get surprised by the weekend numbers and see a less than 50% drop, then maybe $460-$470 million. I can't see it making more than $470 m under any circumstance, and even that is pushing it.

[Valonqar]

10 hours ago, poweranimals said:

It's kinda strange given the audience score and the Cinemascore are both As.

 

It's not. People tend to look at As and any score in a vacuum. It's important to know who gives the score. If it's mostly one demo (see Woman King's A+ and 99% Audience Score lol) than there is a real possibility that the movie won't cross over and therefore won't do as well as the score alone suggest. Which is exactly what happened with WK. It exhausted the demo but didn't attract audience outside of it so legs were average. WF didn't even get A+ so you bet it wasn't going to leg it up like the first one.

Edited December 1, 2022 by Valonqar

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

10 hours ago, Valonqar said:

 

It's not. People tend to look at As and any score in a vacuum. It's important to know who gives the score. If it's mostly one demo (see Woman King's A+ and 99% Audience Score lol) than there is a real possibility that the movie won't cross over and therefore won't do as well as the score alone suggest. Which is exactly what happened with WK. It exhausted the demo but didn't attract audience outside of it so legs were average. WF didn't even get A+ so you bet it wasn't going to leg it up like the first one.

Faith-based movies get A/A+ Cinemascores all the time, for example. 

 

Wakanda Forever is long and the story is more of a downer compared to the first Black Panther: less people will watch on weeknights. The nature of WF means less repeat viewers to begin with, and it'll be on Disney+ soon enough, so the holds are fine vs great like with BP1.

 

Then, throw in the loss of the people who won't see it at all because there's no Chadwick, or they can't take a "sad" movie after Covid, plus everyone who only went to BP1 because it was an "event" but they're not invested in the MCU. If Black Panther had the perfect storm for an epic box office run, it's the opposite for Wakanda Forever, so the numbers are back down to earth.

 

WF is kind of behaving like those 80s sequels where it was normal for followup movies to make dramatically less than the first one.

 

 

Edited December 1, 2022 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[GOGODanca]

$1.92m Wednesday for BP2 (-28%YD)

[Valonqar]

@BoxOfficeFangrl I especially like that you mentioend faith based movies as example of one demo giving A/A+, no crossover.

[Legion Again]

16 hours ago, Legion By Night said:

Anyway that was a completely normal mon and tues from BP. It’s still headed for like 460-490, which is great legs from its d2-d8 period (removing holiday inflation). This thread is on crack.

The wed really is kind of bad though…   
 

big question is how much Friday will jump

[Factcheck]

1 hour ago, Legion By Night said:

The wed really is kind of bad though…   
 

big question is how much Friday will jump

MCU movies generally do 4.5-7x of 3rd Monday for the 4th weekend; we'll see if this overperforms or not.

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, Factcheck said:

MCU movies generally do 4.5-7x of 3rd Monday for the 4th weekend; we'll see if this overperforms or not.

This is a pretty useless frame — may mcu have partial summer and Canadian holiday 3rd mon, July mcu have full summer, Nov mcu have thanksgiving week 3rd mon.   
 

MCU post thanksgiving wknd/post thanksgiving mon is generally 9-9.5x, with Rag pulling a beastly 11x — however that was presaged by the Wed/mon increase so in this case we are shooting for more like 8-8.5x unless Fri jump over indexes.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Spoiler Alert was barely 1/2 full in its opening night at NYC. This thing ain't gonna expand. Another one bites the dust sadly

[Factcheck]

8 hours ago, Legion By Night said:

This is a pretty useless frame — may mcu have partial summer and Canadian holiday 3rd mon, July mcu have full summer, Nov mcu have thanksgiving week 3rd mon.   
 

MCU post thanksgiving wknd/post thanksgiving mon is generally 9-9.5x, with Rag pulling a beastly 11x — however that was presaged by the Wed/mon increase so in this case we are shooting for more like 8-8.5x unless Fri jump over indexes.

I just checked, and the Ragnarok 3rd Monday to 4th Weekend multiplier was 7x. I was talking about the 3rd monday to 4th weekend multiplier here, not the post-Thanksgiving multiplier.

 

Edit: BOP projection is very good though- 10.4x of 3rd monday

Edited December 2, 2022 by Factcheck

[Legion Again]

44 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

I just checked, and the Ragnarok 3rd Monday to 4th Weekend multiplier was 7x. I was talking about the 3rd monday to 4th weekend multiplier here, not the post-Thanksgiving multiplier.

 

Edit: BOP projection is very good though- 10.4x of 3rd monday

Right I understand what numbers you were using, my reply was about why you shouldn't be using them (inflated 3rd Mons for various reasons)

[GOGODanca]