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[Deathlife]

To be honest, given that the first Avatar came out 12 years ago, I think A2 doing about $1.5bn-$1.6bn isn't really bad at all.

 

Moreso when the pandemic is still a factor in certain markets (specifically China).

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, Deathlife said:

To be honest, given that the first Avatar came out 12 years ago, I think A2 doing about $1.5bn-$1.6bn isn't really bad at all.

 

Moreso when the pandemic is still a factor in certain markets (specifically China).

It clearly isn’t. What Avatar needs now is to connect with the larger audience for its sequels. The question now is if it will be all diminishing returns or if it can go up with the next sequels.

[reddevil19]

6 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

 

Mark Kermode, his power

I haven't seen the movie, but I did decide to watch his review. Goddamn, his Scottish-Irish-Italian leprechaun Na'vi voices made me laugh. I'll be disappointed if the movie doesn't actually have that. 

[redfirebird2008]

26 minutes ago, stephanos13 said:

What's the update with the weather in the US? It's freezing temperatures but with no snow?

Some places have snow or ice. But for some places it’s getting very cold with strong wind. My town has very quickly gone from 60 degrees to 30 degrees Fahrenheit in the last 5 hours. Supposed to drop another 15 degrees over the next 8-10 hours.
 

And my town is in the far southern part of the country where it’s much warmer. Go further north and we find that Kansas City is currently -6 degrees and feels like -28 degrees Fahrenheit. That’s brutal. 

Edited December 22, 2022 by redfirebird2008

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

2 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

It clearly isn’t. What Avatar needs now is to connect with the larger audience for its sequels. The question now is if it will be all diminishing returns or if it can go up with the next sequels.

 

All depends on exchange rates and China. Even if ticket sales drop 10% from A2 to A3 in all markets (minus China for obvious reasons), a flip in the ER can still turn that into a 10-20% gain.

 

If Jim can tighten A3 up into the 160-170 minute range that would be a plus. 

 

[dudalb]

No doubt the most populous area of the US..The East Coast..is going to get hammered by extreme cold weather, and it going to have badly hurt box office.

[M37]

24 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Sky people do not see

It’s a lot easier to see when not wearing blinders …

[reddevil19]

6 minutes ago, Deathlife said:

To be honest, given that the first Avatar came out 12 years ago, I think A2 doing about $1.5bn-$1.6bn isn't really bad at all.

 

Moreso when the pandemic is still a factor in certain markets (specifically China).

I really don't care one way or another, until I see the movie (probably even beyond that point), but.. Come on. Jurassic World came out 14 years after JP3 and added a billion to that movies gross. Top Gun Maverick came out 36 years after the original and added 1.1 billion. 

Avatar 2 came out 13 tears after the original - the biggest movie ever - and drops a billion.

 

Even if the idea is that it could only go down from that big a height.. That would still be an almighty big drop. And if it finished as low as 1.5b, then that would obviously be even worse. I don't see how shedding THAT big a chunk off its audience (while still bringing in insane amounts) isn't a BIT concerning. Obviously the big problem is how far along 3 and 4 are and how much Cameron is unwilling to course-correct on the plot. If people are losing interest in the story, will the visual evolution alone be enough to carry the series? Another similar drop to the third would be a killer... I dunno, I find it hard to think 1.5b would be a true victory for this particular project. But let's see the next couple of weeks. 

[ZattMurdock]

And the criticism I was talking about that was showing up on social media made to CNN:

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/22/entertainment/avatar-2-way-of-water-indigenous-boycott-cec/index.html 

[Deathlife]

16 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

Some places have snow or ice. But for some places it’s getting very cold with strong wind. My town has very quickly gone from 60 degrees to 30 degrees Fahrenheit in the last 5 hours. Supposed to drop another 15 degrees over the next 8-10 hours.
 

And this is in the far southern part of the country where it’s much warmer. Kansas City is currently -6 degrees and feels like -28 degrees Fahrenheit. That’s brutal. 

It's pretty bad in Eastern and Central Canada too.

 

In central British Columbia, it's been -38 degrees for two days now. The wind chill is between -44 and -46 degrees.

 

Needless to say, moving about is rather difficult.

Edited December 22, 2022 by Deathlife

[redfirebird2008]

19 minutes ago, dudalb said:

No doubt the most populous area of the US..The East Coast..is going to get hammered by extreme cold weather, and it going to have badly hurt box office.

So far the Northeast is doing fine. Boston, New York, and Philly are all above 40 degrees Fahrenheit at the moment and the wind isn’t too crazy for them, at least not yet. Right now it’s the north-central part of the country getting nailed. Chicago feels like -12 degrees and Kansas City feels like -28 degrees Fahrenheit. 

[Grebacio]

1 hour ago, ZattMurdock said:

My friends are fucked lol.

 

 

I suspect this won’t go down the way Netflix thinks. It will actually increase piracy and people looking for alternate methods. Not sure what is the solution.

They tried to to this here on Argentina and other Latin American countries charging an extra fee per extra home but they went back to normal after 3 months because of the backlash

[Grebacio]

 

 

 

[M37]

17 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

I really don't care one way or another, until I see the movie (probably even beyond that point), but.. Come on. Jurassic World came out 14 years after JP3 and added a billion to that movies gross. Top Gun Maverick came out 36 years after the original and added 1.1 billion. 

Avatar 2 came out 13 tears after the original - the biggest movie ever - and drops a billion

JW came out 22 years after JP, and that’s a key distinction

 

The nostalgia gap, when what was popular before is now primed to be poplar again, runs about 20-25 years. 13 years after the original IP is close to when popularity is the lowest: too far to be riding coattails of original, and too soon for a natural resurgence
 

 

 

 

[Dale Cooper]

16 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

I really don't care one way or another, until I see the movie (probably even beyond that point), but.. Come on. Jurassic World came out 14 years after JP3 and added a billion to that movies gross. Top Gun Maverick came out 36 years after the original and added 1.1 billion. 

Avatar 2 came out 13 tears after the original - the biggest movie ever - and drops a billion.

 

Even if the idea is that it could only go down from that big a height.. That would still be an almighty big drop. And if it finished as low as 1.5b, then that would obviously be even worse. I don't see how shedding THAT big a chunk off its audience (while still bringing in insane amounts) isn't a BIT concerning. Obviously the big problem is how far along 3 and 4 are and how much Cameron is unwilling to course-correct on the plot. If people are losing interest in the story, will the visual evolution alone be enough to carry the series? Another similar drop to the third would be a killer... I dunno, I find it hard to think 1.5b would be a true victory for this particular project. But let's see the next couple of weeks. 

I mean, yes, clearly it's a big drop. But context is important here. It's doing really, really bad in a couple of markets (China and Japan) and it's underperforming in US as of yet. UK started badly, but it actually seems to pick up and will probably do pretty well in the end. In just about every other market it's either doing good or great. So the movie is clearly connecting with audiences around the globe, that much is clear.

 

Given the exchange rate situation, it was always gonna drop big if China couldn't cover the loss from other markets. It's clearly not gonna finish at 1.5b though, but it's quite feasable it will loose about a billion from the original. It's not great, true, but it's clearly not terrible either.

[Dale Cooper]

4 minutes ago, M37 said:

JW came out 22 years after JP, and that’s a key distinction

And even more importantly, Jurassic Park is far more beloved film than Avatar. That's a really important aspect of it.

[redfirebird2008]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

JW came out 22 years after JP, and that’s a key distinction

 

The nostalgia gap, when what was popular before is now primed to be poplar again, runs about 20-25 years. 13 years after the original IP is close to when popularity is the lowest: too far to be riding coattails of original, and too soon for a natural resurgence
 

 

 

 

Yep, they’re stuck in the middle. Not late enough to get the nostalgia effect like Top Gun or Force Awakens. And not early enough for a white hot sequel performance, such as Pirates 2 after the first Pirates became a WOM phenomenon. 

[Ozymandias]

27 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

And the criticism I was talking about that was showing up on social media made to CNN:

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/22/entertainment/avatar-2-way-of-water-indigenous-boycott-cec/index.html 

 

twitter brain

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, Ozymandias said:

 

twitter brain

I really despise this type of deflection of criticism. It is valid. And it isn’t going away.

[reddevil19]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

JW came out 22 years after JP, and that’s a key distinction

 

The nostalgia gap, when what was popular before is now primed to be poplar again, runs about 20-25 years. 13 years after the original IP is close to when popularity is the lowest: too far to be riding coattails of original, and too soon for a natural resurgence
 

 

 

 

I disagree. If that were true, the likes of any of the recent Terminator movies - especially with Arnold in a prominent role (I.e. post-Salvation), would have done gangbusters. Or Indy 4 should have done MUCH better than it did (by contrast, the fifth one will probably end up doing better, despite being at that 15—ish year mark from Crystal Skull, which you seem to think isn't good to ride on nostalgia and 40+ from the original, which might be too long - I.e. Ghostbusters). 

 

And your premise assumes that so much of TGM's success is nostalgia, as opposed to a mix of that and the movie just hitting it out of the park, at the right time and connecting with audiences (just like JW). The Jurassic Park comparison is perfectly adequate - a delayed sequel, but that one followed the lowest point in the series and Avatar 2 is following the highest point in box office (thereby having a bigger cliff to drop from, yes, but also, in theory, a muuuuch higher proven ceiling). 

 

Again, there is plenty of time ahead for this to develop legs, but if it ends up dropping to under 2 billion, I really don't see how a big takeaway isn't that the movie just didn't connect as well this time around, which is a worry moving forward, especially with a far more tight release pattern (which doesn't allow for the development of nostalgia as per your theory).