Christmas Weekend Thread | Avatar 95.6m, PiB 20.05m, Babylon 4.85m 4 days

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, StreamBO said:

Hope to not have to deal with "the scrip is bad,  movie is to long, James Cameron dont know, he needs to reduce 30 minutes or more of the movie, blah blah" people ANYMORE. I defend your right to doubt the performance (despite you full knowing this movie is on track to do well), but not the quality wich is great with Cameron Seal Of quality. 

As if you have some right to unilaterally shut down criticism...

[Sheldon Cr]

18 minutes ago, Torontofan said:

So 1.8 billion locked ?

1.9billion is locked if things continue at its current pace. So strong weekdays and weekends. We will take the domestic crown as well. I  feel those titans and pandorians coming in to push us over the top. Wow 5.6x multiplier back on deck perhaps

[StreamBO]

8 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

To be fair, mr 'official' prediction was 2.5bil. I DID say though numerous times that i could see it hitting 3bil, and even over.😎

I was joking, although is true i was hoping for the 3 billion even more. So Gone with the wind is Gone with the wind on the adjusted for inflation. 

Edited December 26, 2022 by StreamBO

[M37]

18 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

We had a great surprise with SAT drop, then a surreal SUN jump to a point that even a ridiculously low MON jump will still match R1 (something a lot of people though won't happen a few days ago) 

 

This is not TUE energy at all

Or maybe it’s just that the RO comp is imperfect, and those deviations are magnified on specific days like Tue/Sat/Sun & holidays, while the broader trendline has/will only shift slightly 

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, stuart360 said:

Nope. My OW predicition in my 2.5bil prediction run was 150mil.

Yes i did up it to 181mil in the ow game thread, but still my 'official' predicition run where i mapped out all the days, i had it at 150mil.

 

I always said numerous times thta the people saying 200+mil OW were wrong.

This "oh but some people predict 200M OW ... oh but there was loonies predicting 3B" argument to keep downplaying our excitement about the numbers we're getting is kinda frustrating to read. 

 

I remember quite a lot of posts talking about how it's gonna have difficult to surpass TGM worldwide gross, or that will have to fight to match JW gross. Still i'm not seeing anyone here using these few outliers predictions to make generalizations.  

[Gkalaitza]

22 minutes ago, StreamBO said:

LoTR was the epitome to a lot of people on Cinema today is The Song of Ice and Fire adaptions. 

As a fan of both equally i feel like putting ASoIaF adaptations in the same conversation as the LotR far as "cinematicness" , WOW factor, visual language, grandeur and polish is a bit too far. Maybe in context of their format (TV vs Movies) and their contemporary big productions there they should be considered on equal footing but in a vacuum the comparison is underselling the latter considerably.

 

Dont think that the audiovisual experience and blockbuster entertainment of LotR is now what people can get from GoT or HoD. Take the first 3-4 eps of a HoD season and proect them on a cinema screen for a new audience and then do the same for Fellowship of the Ring a week later. Im pretty sure there would be a noticable difference and gap in experience and cinematic spectacle

Edited December 26, 2022 by Gkalaitza

[StreamBO]

4 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

As if you have some right to unilaterally shut down criticism...

[Sheldon Cr]

14 minutes ago, StreamBO said:

Avatar: The Way of Water 3 BILLION LOCKED? 

My my. Some say 5.5- 6x multiplier on domestic and Os. You just never know but 2.5-3b ww may be back on the table indeed.

 

 

....Meanwhile in domestic kingdom those who thought they were home free....

 

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

This "oh but some people predict 200M OW ... oh but there was loonies predicting 3B" argument to keep downplaying our excitement about the numbers we're getting is kinda frustrating to read. 

 

I remember quite a lot of posts talking about how it's gonna have difficult to surpass TGM worldwide gross, or that will have to fight to match JW gross. Still i'm not seeing anyone here using these few outliers predictions to make generalizations.  

Well i always said it would slowly dawn on them as the run went on.

 

Its just copium coming out, as you can see in some of the replies to my posts in the past 30mins or so.

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

Or maybe it’s just that the RO comp is imperfect, and those deviations are magnified on specific days like Tue/Sat/Sun & holidays, while the broader trendline has/will only shift slightly 

Well it's a very reasonable possibility, doesn't change my point that a lot of people was using the R1 comps the entire week and though it won't match it's MON a few days ago (which now almost certainly will with a big shot in going way higher actually). TUE was a fluke, what we're seeing since SAT is different than that, that's what i meant saying it doesn't have TUE energy.

 

Of course this entire run is very complex so far and we still need to wait and see the entire week before jumping in such strong conclusions, but that's not what i was talking about.

[StreamBO]

2 minutes ago, Gkalaitza said:

As a fan of both equally i feel like putting ASoIaF adaptations in the same conversation as the LotR far as "cinematicness" , WOW factor, visual language, grandeur and polish is a bit too far. Maybe in context of their format (TV vs Movies) and their contemporary big productions there they should be considered on equal footing but in a vacuum the comparison is underselling the latter considerably.

 

Dont think that the audiovisual experience and blockbuster entertainment of LotR is now what people can get from GoT or HoD. Take the first 3-4 eps of a HoD season and proect them on a cinema screen for a new audience and then do the same for Fellowship of the Ring a week later. Im pretty sure there would be a noticable difference and gap in experience and cinematic spectacle

But you are picking episodes, if is with picking episodes, put battle of the bastards to compete. 

[Gkalaitza]

So either way shouldnt some weekend actuals be coming out in the next couple of hours or not ?

Edited December 26, 2022 by Gkalaitza

[Gkalaitza]

4 minutes ago, StreamBO said:

But you are picking episodes, if is with picking episodes, put battle of the bastards to compete. 

Well i picked the first 4 eps vs the first movie of the trilogy first to have comperable runtime and also cause they arent centered towards large climactic battles but either way i think my point still stands if you pick the last 4 eps of a GoT season that include some climactic spectacle and Return of the King or the Two Towers

[Cooper Legion]

Some people are really starting to get carried away with this and it's... just not advisable.   

 

Maybe it will leg pretty nicely for here (to, what, 650? still not that mind-blowing) and it will reflect well on those who were higher. 

 

Maybe it'll end below tros and reflect well on those who were lower. 

 

Trying to claim the former case prematurely probably won't be fun times if it blows up in your face 🤷‍♂️

[stuart360]

3 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

Some people are really starting to get carried away with this and it's... just not advisable.   

 

Maybe it will leg pretty nicely for here (to, what, 650? still not that mind-blowing) and it will reflect well on those who were higher. 

 

Maybe it'll end below tros and reflect well on those who were lower. 

 

Trying to claim the former case prematurely probably won't be fun times if it blows up in your face 🤷‍♂️

650mil US wouldnt be mindblowing?, in this current climate?.

I beg to differ.

 

Still yes i get what you're saying, and its fair about waiting. But waiting is what us loonies always said (in terms of legs).

Edited December 26, 2022 by stuart360

[M37]

6 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Well it's a very reasonable possibility, doesn't change my point that a lot of people was using the R1 comps the entire week and though it won't match it's MON a few days ago (which now almost certainly will with a big shot in going way higher actually). TUE was a fluke, what we're seeing since SAT is different than that, that's what i meant saying it doesn't have TUE energy.

And there were also a lot of people crowing at Tue as the start of new upward trend, when it immediately dove back down to ~95% of RO the following day (and lower on Thu/Fri, though winter storm impacted)

 

Most of the rational analysis has been far less swingy, like so 

 

 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Just now, stuart360 said:

650mil US wouldnt be mindblowing?, in this current climate?.

I beg to differ.

 

Good number but definitely not mind blowing. We just had a film do $715M 6 months ago and another do $800M+ a year ago. 

 

[Deep Wang]

6 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

This "oh but some people predict 200M OW ... oh but there was loonies predicting 3B" argument to keep downplaying our excitement about the numbers we're getting is kinda frustrating to read. 

 

This is what I'm seeing:

 

Avatar fans over-estimated opening weekend and second weekend.  Never mind that we thought it would make more, it's better than what the haters predicted, so why are you picking on us?!

 

That is frustrating.  

 

[Firepower]

It needs x6.85 multi to cross 3 bln and become the highest grossing movie of all time unadjusted. I don't think it's happening, but 4.75 multi is not impossible and it would bring it to well over 2 bln worldwide.

Edited December 26, 2022 by Firepower

[stuart360]

Just now, M37 said:

And there were also a lot of people crowing at Tue as the start of new upward trend, when it immediately dove back down to ~95% of RO the following day (and lower on Thu/Fri, though winter storm impacted)

 

Most of the rational analysis has been far less swingy, like so 

 

 

Yes but what people dont say about those storm ravaged couple of days last week is that A2 held really well compared to the other films in the Top 10.

In fact on Thursday, when the storms hit hard, every film in thre Top 20 dropped except A2 which had a slight gain.

So even on those stormy ridden days, A2 was still showing signs of good wom anfd legs.