Christmas Weekend Thread | Avatar 95.6m, PiB 20.05m, Babylon 4.85m 4 days

[Legion Again]

I would go for maybe 900 theatrical rev and 500 ancillary vs 1B total costs for 1.4 ROI. Participations won’t be as bad as Endgame but interest will be heinous.

[redfirebird2008]

7 minutes ago, eridani said:

https://deadline.com/2020/04/2019-movie-profits-top-films-avengers-endgame-russo-brothers-data-1202919361/

 

I'm using the above article and its numbers to try and scrape up an interpolation estimate for A2's costs and earnings, for everything on top of the BO gross earnings and the estimated/rumored 460 million production budget.

This is a fairly conservative rundown. A2 may well go over these figures, so i may do another run of these numbers later on.

 

1900 m global BO

550 m domestic
160 m china
1190 m other OS

 

domestic rental 313 m

china rental 40 m

other OS rental 487 m

total theatrical rental: 840 m

 

worldwide home entertainment 250 m

global TV net 250 m

total revenue 1340 m

***
net production cost (with overhead?) 460 m

worldwide prints and ads 150 m

video costs 85 m

participations 50 m

residuals 40 m

interest 60 m

total costs: 845 m

 

studio profit (before tax) 495 m

cash on cash return 1.71
 

Gonna make a lot of profit. I tend to think Avatar 3 will make even stronger profit if China is able to return to full performance by 2024. 

[IronJimbo]

13 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

Gonna make a lot of profit. I tend to think Avatar 3 will make even stronger profit if China is able to return to full performance by 2024. 

 

hopefully China can "re-release" Avatar 2 in June or something once covid has chilled out

 

We should probably call Dec 2022 china A2's release a "pre-release" honestly

[charlie Jatinder]

19 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

900 theatrical rev

$1B (600*65% + 1275*45% + 200*22%)

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

 

hopefully China can "re-release" Avatar 2 in June or something once covid has chilled out

 

We should probably call Dec 2022 china A2's release a "pre-release" honestly

Hard to know if Chinese government is willing to do that. I know they place top priority on good release dates & screen counts for Chinese-produced movies. 

[charlie Jatinder]

BTW guys, we gotta put 100 pages on weekdays thread as well. we already a day short. Move there.

[Borobudur]

28 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

Yes

So we can expect Avatar 2 continue to have some degree of holiday bump through first week of January. 

[Legion Again]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

$1B (600*65% + 1275*45% + 200*22%)

Real ratios are all well and good, but we’re talking analogy to the endgame deadline analysis and it’s ~900 with deadline ratios  

 

(560*.57+1275*.41+190*.25)

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

BTW guys, we gotta put 100 pages on weekdays thread as well. we already a day short. Move there.

As soon as we fall short of 100 pages A2 is doomed to be just another MCU flick, keep the magic alive folks

[Shawn Robbins]

23 hours ago, SchumacherFTW said:

@Shawn did a really great breakdown heading in to DH2's OW back in the day about how to the GA, Philosopher's Stone, Goblet of Fire and Deathly Hallows 2 kind of worked as a weird trilogy for the GA. 

Oh my goodness, that's a throwback reference that predates even this forum by a few months. I'm honored you remember it!