Christmas Weekend Thread | Avatar 95.6m, PiB 20.05m, Babylon 4.85m 4 days

[SchumacherFTW]

1 minute ago, Deep Wang said:

 

 

So you are thinking A2 will get multiple releases over the years like the first one has?

Feels unlikely to me, would need to age like Terminator 2 for that. 

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

 

So you are thinking A2 will get multiple releases over the years like the first one has?

post covid china release

[stuart360]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

post covid china release

Hopefully. Get back some of that gross it s losing becauae of covid.

[JustLurking]

one strong sunday and we're talking about matching avatar legs

 

what

[stuart360]

1 minute ago, JustLurking said:

one strong sunday and we're talking about matching avatar legs

 

what

If it matched AVATAR's legs we would be talking about a 1.34bil domestic total.

No one is saying that.

[CaptNathanBrittles]

Re-release A2 next Christmas with an A3 trailer attached at the end. $$$

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 minute ago, stuart360 said:

If it matched AVATAR's legs we would be talking about a 1.34bil domestic total.

No one is saying that.

 

Jimbo is definitely saying it can match Avatar's post NY numbers. It can't, but he's saying it.

[MovieMan89]

5 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

one strong sunday and we're talking about matching avatar legs

 

what

It doesn’t have to at all though now. Just give it slightly stronger than RO holds over the next week and you end up with a $100m+ lead over A1 and not much smaller of a 3rd weekend. 

[Nero]

1 minute ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

Re-release A2 next Christmas with an A3 trailer attached at the end. $$$

I say release A3, A4 and even A5 simultaneously and let it run for a year

[IronJimbo]

5 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

Jimbo is definitely saying it can match Avatar's post NY numbers. It can't, but he's saying it.

yeah stuart knows that I said that and he also knows the way we use legs on this website isn't what you just described

 

 

[MovieMan89]

First post NY weekend hold is the one I’m most worried about for it. A1’s hold that weekend was just beyond all reality when movies usually drop a solid 50%+. 

[IronJimbo]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

First post NY weekend hold is the one I’m most worried about for it. A1’s hold that weekend was just beyond all reality when movies usually drop a solid 50%+. 

yes! exactly. The 4th to the 9th, mark it in your calender these are the dates which will reveal the most

[M37]

12 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

one strong sunday and we're talking about matching avatar legs

 

what

I leave for a couple of hours and projections have skyrocketed off of one single good (holiday!) performance

 

 

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

yes! exactly. The 4th to the 9th, mark it in your calender these are the dates which will reveal the most

I actually think it will have stellar 5th-9th weekend holds, but I’m far less convinced about the dreaded weekend 4. Can totally see it taking the usual 50%+ plunge. 

[JustLurking]

5 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

yeah stuart knows that I said that and he also knows the way we use legs on this website isn't what you just described

 

 

that's just debating semantics and I mantain that reducing legs to only multipliers is a bit too much of an oversimplification

 

don't get me wrong - would love for the film to start overperforming but we should at the very least give it next week before entertaining crazy possibilities

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

5 minutes ago, M37 said:

I leave for a couple of hours and projections have skyrocketed off of one single good (holiday!) performance

 

 

 

Reasonable prognostication hasn't skyrocketed but it has improved. Should be in the ~420 range by the end of Jan 2 vs the ~395 I had it at a few days ago. No real competition for 6 weekends. I'm in the upper 500's/low 600's now. 

[hw64]

15 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

It doesn’t have to at all though now. Just give it slightly stronger than RO holds over the next week and you end up with a $100m+ lead over A1 and not much smaller of a 3rd weekend. 

 

The most you can reasonably hope for through Monday, January 2nd is probably around $450m, which would be around $150m from this Tuesday to next Monday inclusive (Rogue One did about $120m in that period).

 

That's $90m above Avatar's $360m at the same point, and Avatar itself made a further $390m. Avatar 2 would need to make $300m, or 77% of Avatar for the rest of its run to reach Avatar's first-run gross, and $335m, or 86% of Avatar for the rest of its run to reach its overall domestic total of $785m. And that's coming off of a third weekend that's ostensibly going to be quite a bit lower than Avatar's $68.5m (albeit with a worse calendar configuration than Avatar, with NYE on the Saturday).

 

Either which way you slice it, it's just not feasible.

Edited December 26, 2022 by hw64

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

I actually think it will have stellar 5th-9th weekend holds, but I’m far less convinced about the dreaded weekend 4. Can totally see it taking the usual 50%+ plunge. 

Not quite what I meant sorry.

I meant from Wednesday 4th, to Monday 9th, will tell us so much. And yes that includes the dreaded 4th weekend.

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

The most you can reasonably hope for through Monday, January 2nd is probably around $440m, which would be around $140m from this Tuesday to next Monday inclusive (Rogue One did about $120m in that period).

 

That's $80m above Avatar's $360m at the same point, and Avatar itself made a further $390m. Avatar 2 would need to make $310m, or 80% of Avatar for the rest of its run to reach Avatar's first-run gross, and $345m, or nearly 90% of Avatar for the rest of its run to reach its overall domestic total of $785m. And that's coming off of a third weekend that's ostensibly going to be quite a bit lower than Avatar's $68.5m (albeit with a worse calendar configuration than Avatar, with NYE on the Saturday).

 

Either which way you slice it, it's just not feasible.

440 Is not “the most you can hope for” when it doesn’t even give it RO holds. Who’s to say it can’t hold better than that? Maybe not, but also far from out of the realm of possibility either. With that Sunday, it could go as high as 475 by next Monday if WOM is kicking in and we’re gonna start seeing something better than the likes of a RO. 

[M37]

4 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

 

Reasonable prognostication hasn't skyrocketed but it has improved. Should be in the ~420 range by the end of Jan 2 vs the ~395 I had it at a few days ago. No real competition for 6 weekends. I'm in the upper 500's/low 600's now. 

And you were at 530-560 a few days ago, so that’s a ~10% ($50M+) bump off a single holiday result 

 

I’m not so sure about that Jan 2nd total, because while the lower bound for the next week is probably higher, there’s not enough data IMO to raise the mid-point average or upper bound by much