Christmas-New Year Weekdays Thread || Avatar $20.1M THU - Top 10 DOM or Bust!

[JustLurking]

this daily went from looking bad, possibly into the 17s to a tentative near 20, -4% from wed

 

what the fuck

[kayumanggi]

Just now, eddyxx said:

Marvels is headed for a huge drop unless it has a amazing trailer that knocks your socks off.

 

I thought my range was already low. What are you predicting? $300 M?

[JustLurking]

4 minutes ago, Juby said:

Decent enough only if you turn off your brain and don't look for good director work with building suspence or any intensity in "scary scenes".

I mean, yes, it's engaging enough to be a fun dino ride. It's no Jurassic Park but it's alright.

[Verrows]

So Avatar ended up having a Rogue One second Thursday drop overall. In fact, a BETTER drop! Here I was thinking "okay, the drop was more steep because of the better Wednesday hold".

 

Weekend has a good chance of hitting $60M at this point...

[charlie Jatinder]

Numbers menor and legion are posting are coming off a small & regional sample, so there can be variance on higher and lower side. This is also first time doing this, so margin of error are bigger, as they will do more, there will be improvement.

[Verrows]

3 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

 

To be fair, THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER actually made a better total than THOR: RAGNAROK internationally. It was BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER that really struggled for obvious reasons.

 

RAGNAROK

$403.0 M without China and Russia

 

LOVE AND THUNDER

$417.7 M without China and Russia

 

BLACK PANTHER

$557.4 M without China and Russia

 

WAKANDA FOREVER

$375.3 M without China and Russia

 

That's a $180 M drop for BP: WF.

 

---

 

Based on the previous movies' box office, how do you think Marvel's titles will perform next year?

 

ANT-MAN AND THE WASP

$406.0 M overseas total

$279.4 M without China and Russia

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY II

$473.9 M overseas total

$345.3 M without China and Russia

 

CAPTAIN MARVEL

$701.6 M overseas total

$527.4 M without China and Russia

 

I'm thinking:

 

ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

$300 M - $350 M

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

$400 M - $450 M

 

THE MARVELS

$400 M - $450 M

Good call on Thor. Hadn't actually broken down all the I overseas numbers to compare to Ragnarok. I guess the feeling of disappointment or underperformance must have come more from the domestic side of things. 

 

Looking at your breakdowns, I'm realizing just how much China added to everything. I guess the audience dropoff overseas isn't as big as I thought. Like you said though, Wakanda Forever did legitimately underperform, even taking into account the likely drop from the first one.

Edited December 30, 2022 by Verrows

[IronJimbo]

I'm lost, what was thurs + fri

[JustLurking]

5 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

I'm lost, what was thurs + fri

charlie posted 19.75 for thu

[Legion Again]

21 minutes ago, Gkalaitza said:

So the concervative mid day projections are due to Canada overperforming? Or tracking and live BO data for Canada in general arent as reliable / clear cut as US ones so there is extra uncertainty either way for projections

We’re just working with a very small sample size atm based on scraping limitations. Worked out pretty well for most days of the run but you can’t totally eliminate the 98% out of sample moving differently which is one reason I’ve tried to emphasize large ranges (though today is a yuge miss, hopefully those remain rare or the realistic range is going to be so large as to be useless 😛 )

[IronJimbo]

5 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

charlie posted 19.75 for thu

is that not friday?

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

is that not friday?

no

[IronJimbo]

Just now, JustLurking said:

no

ah, very cool. 700m soon

[Legion Again]

And as Jat says, there may be systematic patterns in chain/natl movement that we can anticipate and correct for with more movies under the belt. 
 

Though this is xmas period so we may not have had the right data to see it coming even if we’d been at it for 9 months now.

Edited December 30, 2022 by Legion in Boots

[IronJimbo]

what are you guys gonna do when you realise your comps are all useless because there's only 1 Avatar 2

[JustLurking]

Honestly feels worth having numbers early for more active/fun threads overall anyway, just gotta keep in mind potential big swings if days start looking too low/high judging trends

[Tokugennumataka]

Ecstatic for Avatwo

Going off R1s holds for the weekend:

Fri - 21.5M

Sat - 17.3M

Sun - 19.8M // 58.6M (-7%)

Mon - 18.8M - 435M by Jan 2

And to think it has been having much better holds than R1, the weekend could get in that 60-63M range. Incredible!!!

[charlie Jatinder]

15 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

what are you guys gonna do when you realise your comps are all useless because there's only 1 Avatar 2

avatar 1 is def not usable. it is to be seen if A2 can trend as well as NWH in late legs.

A1 was already trending strongly before holidays, A2 hasn't shown those massive improvements.
(@M37 did a very good visual representation other day.)

Edited December 30, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Damn, that's a huge increase from the early estimates posted here. Did Canada come to the rescue again? An incredible single digit drop might be in order for Avatar 2 this weekend!

 

Edited December 30, 2022 by BadOlCatSylvester

[JohnnyGossamer]

7 hours ago, Torontofan said:

 

 I feel there is a massive desire by audiences for non superhero blockbusters

 

That is why Jurassic Dominion still did a billion even though it was such trash.

 

That is why Top Gun Maverick became an all time hit.

 

and why avatar will cruise to 2 billion. 

While I agree that people want more options, Strange 2 and potentially Panther 2 would've likely both grossed more than Dominion WW if they'd have gotten a China release. Sans China, Dominion does less than both WW. So this is a bit misleading. But, more so, Jurassic franchise is huge and bigger than superhero movies on average.

 

Top Gun was huge for a number of reasons... But, primarily due to the phenomenal theatrical experience with the show Kosinski and Cruise put on. It'll be a Best Picture nominee and is arguably the best received non superhero blockbuster since Fury Road.

 

Avatar was already bigger than superhero movies, especially OS, aside from maybe one Avengers movie.

 

Think this is massively over simplifying things.

Edited December 30, 2022 by JohnnyGossamer

[CJohn]

3 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

While I agree that people want more options, Strange 2 and potentially Panther 2 would've likely both grossed more WW if they'd have gotten a China release. Sans China, Dominion does less than both WW. So this is a bit misleading. But, more so, Jurassic franchise is huge and bigger than superhero movies on average.

I am not sure if Black Panther has enough juice in the tank to outgross JW3-China. JW3 without China did ~844M. Black Panther is sitting at 806M.