Christmas-New Year Weekdays Thread || Avatar $20.1M THU - Top 10 DOM or Bust!

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

 

But i'm being serious.

 

You just started doing this (from what i'm seeing) and you're doing very good. I don't think anyone expect exact numbers from early lookings, but it's been consistently overall. I personally avoid because the arguing has been stressful to me, not the numbers.

 

It was a sincere congrats for your work. Sorry if it doesn't look like, english is not my first language.

Appreciate it  

Hopefully today goes better but I think we’re still going to wait a bit longer to make a prediction using the data.

[stuart360]

21 minutes ago, StreamBO said:

When will people on this forum understand that the era of mid size films on theaters as a standard is GONE, no matter promotion, not matter nothing, all those films (the kind of rule is) are streaming movies now, or maybe day and date, plus all superhero movies are not the same, BP2 is very different to the three MCU movies released behind it. Plus Superhero Movies are a subgenre of Action movies, the same thing Top Gun Maverick is. Top Gun Maverick is no different from the superhero genre that much, is basically a superhero (action) plot, without powers about a man that is the one that can make the mission just as superheroes, with their robins or sidekicks helping, or Tony Stark and the Other Avengers. 

 

All your opinions are basically Baseless Nostalgia, or complaining for sake of complaining. 

 

Today theartical Cinema is GO BIG (you better have the look of a 200 million dollar movie) or GO HOME (to streaming).

 

Stop screaming about OpTiOnS, Studios give theaters options all the time with midsized movies (AND FLOP even with good marketing), if you do not have action or epicness or both you are done in theaters. But some of you refuse to the TRUTH. 

Well i'd hope those mid level films still got a cinema release, even if its also day and date on streaming.

Consumers having more choice is better than less choice.

 

I mean things could still change in a few more years. A lot of people worldwide are struggling money wise, its not just the after effects of covid.

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

You have been very close some days, and we all aprreciate you taking the time to do them.

I'm sure we would rather have a slightly off number than no number at all.

 

At least he's not overestimating, which leads to a letdown with actuals. Lol

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

At least he's not overestimating, which leads to a letdown with actuals. Lol

The fact that it keeps coming in over the comp may force an adjustment upwards today. Like, if the comp says 21 we might need to go 21.5-22. Not sure yet, just a thought.

[Alex SciChannel]

So happy Puss in Boots essentially stayed flat from yesterday at only -2% drop. I am hoping for a really big percentage increase this weekend.

Edited December 30, 2022 by Alex SciChannel

[Poseidon]

7 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

So happy Puss in Boots essentially stayed flat from yesterday at only -2% drop. I am hoping for a really big percentage increase this weekend.

 

30% should be the best case scenario, 15% worst case.

[XXR vs XXR]

9 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

So happy Puss in Boots essentially stayed flat from yesterday at only -2% drop. I am hoping for a really big percentage increase this weekend.

 

If it follows the Sing pattern (same calendar configuration) we’d be looking at $16.2M 3-Day.

[M37]

34 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

358M

+80M extended third weekend

+35M 4th weekend

+25M extended 5th weekend

+15M 6th weekend

+10M 7th weekend

+7M 8th weekend

530M without midweeks and late legs. I would say 600M is more than the ceiling for Avatar 2 at this moment

Truly, the ceiling is undefined, and while a case can be made for a higher range, it requires relying on outlier performances - Jumanji, Showman, even TGM - as the baseline ... something I'm not prepared to do without more evidence outside of the naturally skewed/wonky holiday period. Really weeks 3 & 4 will go a long way to refining long term expectations, the first setting the starting point and the latter the rate of decline

 

If we see something like $90M plus week 3 followed by a sub 50% drop in week 4, then its time to adjust (for reference TFA went $118/-53% on its way to making ~$285M after week 2)

[kayumanggi]

11 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

So happy Puss in Boots essentially stayed flat from yesterday at only -2% drop. I am hoping for a really big percentage increase this weekend.

 

I really like your enthusiasm on this one. 😄

[Alex SciChannel]

1 minute ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

 

If it follows the Sing pattern (same calendar configuration) we’d be looking at $16.2M 3-Day.

 

That's almost the exact number for my personal prediction lol ($16M). That would be a very great +29% increase.

[stuart360]

If Friday falls in the 21-23mil range, surely 60+ 3 day is pretty much certain right?. I mean i know we have New Years Eve in there but its not usually as effectd as much as Xmas Eve right?.

 

The first AVATAR did 68mil this weekend, off lower weekdays (although didnt have NYE in the weekend).

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, stuart360 said:

If Friday falls in the 21-23mil range, surely 60+ 3 day is pretty much certain right?. I mean i know we have New Years Eve in there but its not usually as effectd as much as Xmas Eve right?.

 

The first AVATAR did 68mil this weekend, off lower weekdays (although didnt have NYE in the weekend).

I definitely wouldn’t say 60 is certain off of the low end of those numbers. Let’s say it’s 21 today and follows R1 pattern, it comes in right at 57. If it hits 22 then 60 is likely.

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

If Friday falls in the 21-23mil range, surely 60+ 3 day is pretty much certain right?. I mean i know we have New Years Eve in there but its not usually as effectd as much as Xmas Eve right?.

 

The first AVATAR did 68mil this weekend, off lower weekdays (although didnt have NYE in the weekend).

With 21.5M the lowest i can see is 58M 

 

I think +22M probably locks +60M, even with just okay jumps and drops.

[M37]

4 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

If Friday falls in the 21-23mil range, surely 60+ 3 day is pretty much certain right?. I mean i know we have New Years Eve in there but its not usually as effectd as much as Xmas Eve right?.

 

The first AVATAR did 68mil this weekend, off lower weekdays (although didnt have NYE in the weekend).

Not certain, but plausible. Holidays hit movies differently: I’m expecting a better Saturday increase than RO, but honestly could see NYD having a smaller or larger increase 

[ThomasNicole]

The nice thing is that if it cames closer to 65M weekend, by JAN 2 this will be ahead of R1 already despite being 20M behind just a few days ago

[stuart360]

The difference between the first film and this film at the same point is still 56mil.

Its been in the mid 50's since the OW.

A2 had a lower Xmas weekedn because of Xmas Eve, and will also have a slightly lower New Years weekend, but its been having higher weekdays than the orig film.

 

I'd guess the difference between both films by the end of the 4 day New years weekend will be around 50mil in A2's favour.

 

So although A2's drops will probably be steeper than the first, and its gains lower for the rest of its run, at least it has an extra 50mil to play with on the remainder of its run.

Edited December 30, 2022 by stuart360

[stephanos13]

The fact that we are in the 3rd weekend and we still don't know the ceiling and the trajectory of Avatar's box office is very exciting and nervous (for those wanting the movie to do well) at the same time. 😄

[Dale Cooper]

Are there any breakdowns of gross in different formats for the last few days? Would be quite interesting to better get a grasp of what legs can be expected post holiday.

Edited December 30, 2022 by Dale Cooper

[Torontofan]

Nice to see avatar become a big hit and forum be alive

 

Place is pretty dead otherwise. 

[lilmac]

TWOW might be Zoe Saldana's 4th 2B+ movie:

Avatar (2009) - 2.92B
Avengers Infinity War (2018) - 2.04B
Avengers Endgame (2019) - 2.79B
Avatar The Way of Water (2022) - 2.0B+

 

When you look at her big budget filmography. My goodness. She’s in many of the Top 100 all time grossing movies.