Christmas-New Year Weekdays Thread || Avatar $20.1M THU - Top 10 DOM or Bust!

[Menor the Destroyer]

23 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

If XXR is aying 19-19.75, then i'm going to go 20-21.

I dont mean that as a diss against XXR, its just the film seems to keep hitting 1-2mil higher than the early estimates.

21 is tough. 20 quite possible. Though Canada did push things higher than what yesterday looked from the US.

Edited December 29, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[Alex SciChannel]

11 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

 

Fair to do and not out of the realm of possibility, I just don't feel comfortable estimating that high when it probably won't be quite that much. 

 

 

I just finished my third viewing of the movie (A2). Still love it!

 

XXR my dude, thanks for the heads up for a possible Wednesday's number. A $19.5M - $19.75M would be a very strong performance. Your work is very appreciated here.

 

Personally I like that you stay conservative with your data extrapolations, since often times actuals come in lower than expected from comscore artists' projections and it's often cause for a lot of undue disappointment.

 

People forget our personal dollars have little to no effect on the box office outcome and most of it we can't control. I know I contributed $33 for today's gross for 3 people, so if it ends up $20,000,033 as wednesday actuals, know that was me lol.

 

Staying conservative means being realistic and leaving breathing room for accuracy's sake. Keep doing your thing and send whatever numbers feel most comfy

 

 

[Poseidon]

10 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

Let it go. They are new to extrapolating the numbers. They made a post about it and it was very early in the day when they made a suggestion. Stop being a pain in the ass about it or you will lose that source of information and discussion.

He's doing a great job. There's no way for him to ever get much closer, as there are pattern, you can't forsee sometimes. The estimates are always within a 10% range and that's all you will get, especially that early in the day,

 

As a bonus: he's not into stupid stunts and games when sharing numbers.  

Edited December 29, 2022 by Poseidon

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

He's doing a great job. There's no way for him to ever get much closer, as there are pattern, you can't forsee sometimes. The estimates are always within a 10% range and that's all you will get, especially that early in the day,

I can explain where the 19 came from. The chain being tracked doesn't do discounts on Tuesday which makes the ratio very low for Tuesday. XXR's 19 came from comp with other days which is why I said 21-24 soon after that to clarify that the ratio would be different on Tuesday. In the end the US numbers came within the 20-23 range we had settled on but as Charlie explained Canada came in high which is hard to account for.

Edited December 29, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[Verrows]

What I will thank @XXR Eywa Has Heard You!and the rest of the mods for is being very patient with us newbs. Nice to feel like we're not an annoyance for repeatedly asking questions and stuff.

 

This is just an awesome place to be for cinema fans and numbers nerds. Very grateful!

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Just now, Verrows said:

What I will thank @XXR Eywa Has Heard You!and the rest of the mods for is being very patient with us newbs. Nice to feel like we're not an annoyance for repeatedly asking questions and stuff.

 

This is just an awesome place to be for cinema fans and numbers nerds. Very grateful!

 

We're glad you enjoy being here because we enjoy having you 

[Alex SciChannel]

2 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Canada came in high

I think you mean "Canada came in clutch"

[Ronin46]

1 minute ago, Verrows said:

What I will thank @XXR Eywa Has Heard You!and the rest of the mods for is being very patient with us newbs. Nice to feel like we're not an annoyance for repeatedly asking questions and stuff.

 

This is just an awesome place to be for cinema fans and numbers nerds. Very grateful!

 

Forum is really picking back up. Early numbers is a big help after EC setting themselves on fire 6 months ago stopped that . Hopefully the traffic and contributions continue.

[Verrows]

3 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

Forum is really picking back up. Early numbers is a big help after EC setting themselves on fire 6 months ago stopped that . Hopefully the traffic and contributions continue.

No doubt! Next year should be pretty fun too.

[Alexdube]

18 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

Let it go. They are new to extrapolating the numbers. They made a post about it and it was very early in the day when they made a suggestion. Stop being a pain in the ass about it or you will lose that source of information and discussion.

I don't like the double standard that going lower means you're being "realistic" while going over means you're being a "fanboy" or whatever. I'll happily let it go but calling me "pain in the ass" is uncalled for, I wasn't trolling I was just genuinely asking what he meant by that number

 

[redfirebird2008]

20 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

21 is tough. 20 quite possible. Though Canada did push things higher than what yesterday looked from the US.

Canada has way more Discount Tuesday action, doesn’t it? Probably cannot count on that type of extra boost for Wednesday. 

[kayumanggi]

3 hours ago, Sheldon Cr said:

👍😄Right on my 22-24m brother Kayom. So much for the 18-19 doom nonsense. Heh heh

What's your weekend 3 predict so far kayom?

 

I'm predicting an amazing 58-63m weekend 3

 

Highend 74-84m

 

 

56 M - 58 M 3-day

72 M - 74 M 4-day

[kayumanggi]

8 minutes ago, Verrows said:

No doubt! Next year should be pretty fun too.

 

I think June and July would be the most fun next year. 😁

[AnDr3s]

why does the canadian number count for domestic while having different ER?

[Ronin46]

12 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

I don't like the double standard that going lower means you're being "realistic" while going over means you're being a "fanboy" or whatever. I'll happily let it go but calling me "pain in the ass" is uncalled for, I wasn't trolling I was just genuinely asking what he meant by that number

 

 

They already explained it. Its early and its hard to predict numbers early when they don't have a lot of experience doing it yet. Its much easier to wait until 3 am and then post a number but that would not be great for us. would likely be more accurate but hardly help us at all when we want some sort of early "indication' where its going. 

But if we are going to nail someone for putting an early number that proves to be out well we know where that heads. No numbers and no discussion at all. 

 

[Alexdube]

12 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

They already explained it. Its early and its hard to predict numbers early when they don't have a lot of experience doing it yet. Its much easier to wait until 3 am and then post a number but that would not be great for us. would likely be more accurate but hardly help us at all when we want some sort of early "indication' where its going. 

But if we are going to nail someone for putting an early number that proves to be out well we know where that heads. No numbers and no discussion at all. 

 

I don't disagree with any of this.

What I didn't like was the comment that going 10% over R1 is somehow "unrealistic". People are already floating 20 as a possibility

That is all. No hard feelings, I'm over it, let's move on.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

3 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

I don't disagree with any of this.

What I didn't like was the comment that going 10% over R1 is somehow "unrealistic". People are already floating 20 as a possibility

That is all. No hard feelings, I'm over it, let's move on.

 

This isn't what I said though. I said people who think 10% over R1 isn't a good number have unrealistic expectations. 

 

[thajdikt]

28 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

I think June and July would be the most fun next year. 😁

March aswell imo

[thajdikt]

I´m liking what´s going on right now from Avatar. Hoping for 600M+.

[Sheldon Cr]

35 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

56 M - 58 M 3-day

72 M - 74 M 4-day

Brother kayom us sully members think alike .lol

 

Though my 4 day predict  is 80-83m.

 

And I'm Upping my weekend 3 predict to

58m-62m my brother

 

👍🦝

 

" Let's Get It Done!"