Weekdays (03-05 Jan, 2023) Thread. | Talk about the New York Giants in here!

[stuart360]

4 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

[baumer]

Don't you think the weekend bump could be more significant than expected for Avatar2?  Kinda tough to sit through a 3 hour movie on a week night when you have work the next day.  This is going to be a weekend movie going forward, no doubt.

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

Rogue One had the BEST weekend multiplier from Thursday of anything already out that year (other than animated Sing). I could have stuck with the Passengers comp that its been tracking very closely and wound up around $36M, but I fully expect it to beat that +43% Saturday

 

 

sometimes I think you need to take a step back, far back, and think what you're saying. Rogue One is already in the dumpster, A2 has much better legs. Passengers? Come on man

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

sometimes I think you need to take a step back, far back, and think what you're saying.

 

This might become ironic in 48 hours  

 

[IronJimbo]

Just now, XXR the Conqueror said:

 

This might become ironic in 48 hours  

 

I know the risk thank you, I would hope that I would get quoted if it somehow performs the same as Rogue 1

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

sometimes I think you need to take a step back, far back, and think what you're saying.

 

Like Avatar 2 getting to 1B DOM?

[baumer]

I'm thinking the minimum it jumps on Friday is 100%...Saturday will be a 50% bump.  It's dropping sub 30% this weekend.  

[baumer]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

 

Like Avatar 2 getting to 1B DOM?

 

But why are people giving it drops similar to other films instead of at least considering that it could follow closer to the originals run?

[Dragoncaine]

Just now, baumer said:

I'm thinking the minimum it jumps on Friday is 100%...Saturday will be a 50% bump.  It's dropping sub 30% this weekend.  

That is BOLD. I'm thinking $41-42m which would already be great.

[IronJimbo]

The problem with looking at things on a completely microsopic scale when doing box office is that things can align with each other for reasons completely outside of your understanding. Making false comparisons left and right.

Film X dropped 5% on Day A, and filmY dropped 6% on Day A (minus 5 years), this means you can look at the next day and say they're going to increase and drop the same? I don't think so.

Film X could be a completely different movie to film Y and be deflating because the great british bake off is on TV and the audience of film X loves that crap. There's too many variables.

When you're doing micro stuff, you have to also consider the macro.

Take a step back a little

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Like Avatar 2 getting to 1B DOM?

With the $180m opening I was expecting I think it would have crossed that.

Also if we're pointing fingers at the clubs you don't have a chunky t-rex leg to stand on do ya?

[stuart360]

5 minutes ago, baumer said:

I'm thinking the minimum it jumps on Friday is 100%...Saturday will be a 50% bump.  It's dropping sub 30% this weekend.  

The orig AVATAR jumped 118% on the same Friday. I'm not sure why people are giving A2 these relatively small Friday jumps from Thursday.

Unless they think M3GAN is going to have an effect, but they keep saying its counter programing and will have zero effect.

Edited January 6, 2023 by stuart360

[Brainbug]

Just now, baumer said:

 

But why are people giving it drops similar to other films instead of at least considering that it could follow closer to the originals run?

 

Speaking just for me, i completely agree with you that because of the length of the movie, Avatar 2 should see a big weekend jump, but i do think many posters here use other movies just as reference norms in order to get a realistic/plausible picture for the run.

 

In other words, box office phenomenons are only then really phenomenons when they "break the rules" in some form, i.e. they conistently outperform expectations. Those expectations are generated by comps with other movies. So i really appreciate for example @M37's statistics and numbers, because they paint a good and understandable picture for a "realistic" way forward for Avatar and if its actual numbers exceed them, well, thats just further proof then that it is a phenomenon.

[M37]

7 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

sometimes I think you need to take a step back, far back, and think what you're saying. Rogue One is already in the dumpster, A2 has much better legs. Passengers? Come on man

As I have said repeatedly, in the holiday and post-holiday period, the calendar is the most relevant factor, as the entire top 10 moves largely in unison with only some minor variation between titles

 

 

But you're right, I should totally drop the Passengers comp that spit this out this forecast on Monday

Quote

Fwiw, if this trend were to continue, we'd be looking at something like: $11/$7.5/$6.8 / $11.5/$16.5/$10 = $38M (-43%) through Sunday 1/08

 

 

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

With the $180m opening I was expecting I think it would have crossed that.

Also if we're pointing fingers at the clubs you don't have a chunky t-rex leg to stand on do ya?

 

Why exactly do you have to point out my hypocrisy?

[kayumanggi]

 

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Brainbug said:

 

Why exactly do you have to point out my hypocrisy?

I'm sorry

[lilmac]

17 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

🤝

it's the box office billie for me

I popularized that term (‘multiplier’) in the early days of online boxoffice prognostications (late 90s). I saw it take it off from there and spread to the Boxoffice Reports forums and then BOM. Borrowed it from the college Econ classes I was taking. Lol

Edited January 6, 2023 by lilmac

[IronJimbo]

Just now, lilmac said:

I popularized that term (‘multiplier’) in the early days of online boxoffice prognostications (late 90s). I saw it take it off from there and spread to the Boxoffice Reports forums and then BOM. Borrowed it from Econ college classes I was taking. Lol

now has shorthand version "multi" aswell

[JustLurking]

6 minutes ago, M37 said:

As I have said repeatedly, in the holiday and post-holiday period, the calendar is the most relevant factor, as the entire top 10 moves largely in unison with only some minor variation between titles

 

 

But you're right, I should totally drop the Passengers comp that spit this out this forecast on Monday

 

 

Didn't even get spot on tue and wed, flop comp imo