M3GAN W33K3ND THR3AD | ACTUALS - DADDY CAM3RON'S MAGNUM OPUS 45.8M | DOCUM3NTARY ABOUT KILL3R DOLL 30.4M | ORANG3 PANTH3R 13.5M

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Borobudur said:

Speaking of Shazam, do people still think shouldn't have flee from Avatar 2?

Was it scheduled for this past December? I thought that was Aquabro lol.

[Borobudur]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

Was it scheduled for this past December? I thought that was Aquabro lol.

Aquaman pushed back to Dec this year and Shazam took the spot but flee after all. After somewhat meh OW, people start talking about Shazam shouldn't have move since A2 isn't as big as people want. But now turns out A2 is becoming bigger and bigger now. 

[M37]

2 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Aquaman pushed back to Dec this year and Shazam took the spot but flee after all. After somewhat meh OW, people start talking about Shazam shouldn't have move since A2 isn't as big as people want. But now turns out A2 is becoming bigger and bigger now. 

Part of the reason Avatwo got bigger was because there was a giant void where competition usually exists - basically Puss in Boots and a 6 week old BPWF - and it sucked up a lot of that excess demand
 

There was room for Shazam 2 - in that I don’t think either date would lead to a significantly higher or lower total - but also think a lot of the move decision was WB just not having capital for a full marketing campaign

[Borobudur]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

Part of the reason Avatwo got bigger was because there was a giant void where competition usually exists - basically Puss in Boots and a 6 week old BPWF - and it sucked up a lot of that excess demand
 

There was room for Shazam 2 - in that I don’t think either date would lead to a significantly higher or lower total - but also think a lot of the move decision was WB just not having capital for a full marketing campaign

Shazam would have almost zero access to PLF if the movie sticks to the December spot. 

[GOGODanca]

WB still doesn't have money for a full marketing campaign

[M37]

Just now, Borobudur said:

Shazam would have almost zero access to PLF if the movie sticks to the December spot. 

But also the holiday grossing period and, like Avatwo, a clear runway into February rather than a more competitive March & April - so gaining legs vs PLF loss (for a week) which I see as mostly a wash 

[JustLurking]

5 hours ago, stuart360 said:

China up to 188mil after a 16.6mil weekend.

Nice rebound in China, possible 250mil imo. Maybe more if covid starts relenting a bit.

 

UK with a ridiculous 23% drop from last weeks holiday weekend. A real possibility at 100+mil there now.

Won't have the time to do that much in China. Run is over in less than 2 weeks.

[Grebacio]

1 hour ago, Menor Reborn said:

No more of those numbers until Quantumania OW. At this point the dailies are small and the chain ratio is varying a lot every day anyway.

Could they come back with Knock at the Cabin?

[Verrows]

24 minutes ago, M37 said:

Part of the reason Avatwo got bigger was because there was a giant void where competition usually exists - basically Puss in Boots and a 6 week old BPWF - and it sucked up a lot of that excess demand
 

There was room for Shazam 2 - in that I don’t think either date would lead to a significantly higher or lower total - but also think a lot of the move decision was WB just not having capital for a full marketing campaign

This. Way of Water is doing gangbusters but let's not pretend it isn't capitalizing on the pathetically empty holiday market it had all to itself. It was the same for No Way Home last year and I would say even then the competition was a little better than this year. 

 

There was absolutely room for Shazam and Avatar to still explode. I'm guessing, like you said, it was plainly a money issue.

[Verrows]

45 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Too bad Ant Man and Shazam didn’t switch spots. Would have really been no comp in Jan or Feb for A2. Latter guaranteed to do meh at best no matter when it releases, and I’d think Disney would have preferred the March slot for AM. Closer to spring break. 

I don't know... I think Marvel also likes Presidents'Day weekend, otherwise they wouldn't have scheduled movies there like clockwork over the next several years. 

[Borobudur]

24 minutes ago, M37 said:

But also the holiday grossing period and, like Avatwo, a clear runway into February rather than a more competitive March & April - so gaining legs vs PLF loss (for a week) which I see as mostly a wash 

If you know Avatar 2 has this clear runway into Feb, why were still you firmly believe your club was happening until very recent?

[Flip]

At least we still have the one true source for numbers, Sheldon.

[thajdikt]

I think Ant-Man being in Feb is smart by Disney. Get a 4-day weekend and very little competition. Ant-Man is the weakest franchise in the MCU box office wise excluding the new ones from Phase 4. It won´t steamrolled the competition in March. Shazam seems honestly f´ed in March.

[Flip]

7 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

I think Ant-Man being in Feb is smart by Disney. Get a 4-day weekend and very little competition. Ant-Man is the weakest franchise in the MCU box office wise excluding the new ones from Phase 4. It won´t steamrolled the competition in March. Shazam seems honestly f´ed in March.

Yeah though I think they could’ve moved it up an extra week for more time before new releases, but I understand that they wanted the holiday weekend on opening weekend

[M37]

21 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

If you know Avatar 2 has this clear runway into Feb, why were still you firmly believe your club was happening until very recent?

I would take issue with the characterizations of “firmly” and “recent”, but to answer simply: basically a switched clicked staring on day 13 of release that I didn’t expect, certainly not to the degree we’ve seen 

 

I’ll give a more full & complete answer when I go back and tie a bow on that club in a little while 

[Verrows]

15 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

I think Ant-Man being in Feb is smart by Disney. Get a 4-day weekend and very little competition. Ant-Man is the weakest franchise in the MCU box office wise excluding the new ones from Phase 4. It won´t steamrolled the competition in March. Shazam seems honestly f´ed in March.

They definitely like the Presidents'Day weekend date. They probably released Black Panther there because of how Deadpool did for Fox on that date in 2016. Then they went and scheduled several more movies for that date. It's clearly strategic and purposeful.

 

2/17/23 Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania 

 

2/14/25 Fantastic Four 

 

2/13/26 Untitled Marvel Studios 

 

Only reason there isn't one for 2024 is production schedules. That's just the way it shakes out after Thunderbolts. However, I still wouldn't rule out something moving up to that spot if it's on or ahead of schedule. For all we know something like Armour Wars might be a surprise drop there.

 

 

 

 

[Verrows]

14 minutes ago, Flip said:

Yeah though I think they could’ve moved it up an extra week for more time before new releases, but I understand that they wanted the holiday weekend on opening weekend

Not to mention the weekend before is Super Bowl weekend. 

[Jiffy]

The TGM weekday advantage and incredible late run is really going to come into play.

[Tokugennumataka]

Also would be surprised if Puss Stat above 750K for Mon. 

Edited January 10, 2023 by Tokugennumataka

[todos]

Yeah, let’s not get too excited with proclamations when the entire state of California is in severe weather Monday, Tuesday & the weekend.
With mandated evacuations from flash floods, no one from Washington to California is going to a 3.5 hr movie.