Weekend Thread - 03/31-04/02 | #FRI - D&D $15.3M, JW4 $7.9M, HOS - $2.1M, Scream VI $1.55M, Creed III $1.4M, Shazam $1.2M &1001 $700K

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[WorkingonaName]

Shazam really losing to a broad game movie.  

[Shawn Robbins]

A little surprised to see the studio go with a relatively bullish $40M estimate on a Saturday morning when $35M would be the safer bet and still above their prior expectation. Unusual.

[Firepower]

2 hours ago, MightyDargon said:

This actually sounds probable. I never got why Ghostbusters didn't make much outside US.

Because it wasn't real third movie and Fiege's Ghostbusters damaged the brand.

[kayumanggi]

 

Edited April 1, 2023 by kayumanggi

[filmlover]

Shazam 2 destined to make less than Cocaine Bear. Don't think anyone would've been bold enough to predict that back at the beginning of the year lol.

[kayumanggi]

 

[Firepower]

16 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Damn. People just don't care, do they?

Edited April 1, 2023 by Firepower

[John Marston]

25 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

 

 

Losing all the premium screens to D&D didn’t help. Wtf does a total unproven  property like D&D need IMax? This kills 200m I think 

Edited April 1, 2023 by John Marston

[Ezen Baklattan]

24 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Imagine taking PLF screens hurt this one big time, but even a drop in the 60s isn't terrible considering Parabellum dropped 57%. Hopefully it stabilizes from here enough to get $200m.

[PrinceRico]

That is very disappointing drop for John Wick

[filmlover]

With Super Mario destined to be massive next weekend, we're up to 7 consecutive weeks of $20M+ openers now that will soon be 8. If Renfield and Evil Dead Rise break out, that would extend it to 10 weeks in a row, more great news for movie theaters and bad news for those who were eager to dance on their grave throughout the worst of COVID.

[Brainbug]

Things to consider with John Wicks drop: PLF's only get more important for every movie with every passing year. Its the best way to experience the movie, so naturally many people who otherwise may have skipped the film in theaters, are inclined to go see it, if its available in IMAX etc. Loosing those screens hits every film very hard, no matter the WOM.

 

Also, John Wick is now an established franchise with quite a big fanbase, which results in frontloading. The 2nd weekend drop is always very harsh nowadays for any franchise movie except if you call yourself Avatar and are released during the holidays. The fact that Thursday "previews" are so big and early now just contributes to the bad 2nd weekend drop on paper. The good WOM for JW4 will therefore probably result in a nice 3rd weekend drop, that hopefully stabilizes the run.

 

Also of note: Theres just fewer people going to the cinemas. If even a film like JW4 with those glowing reviews and audience scores is not safe from the typical hard 2nd weekend drop, than we just have to accept that drops in the low to mid 60% range are just common now not just for Marvel/DC/Star Wars, but for seemingly every franchise.

[kayumanggi]

 

[DAJK]

Disappointing drop for Wick but I think this has a lot to do with losing PLFs. Should stabilize next week and hold well throughout April. It’s basically a tradition of this forum to overreact to a single disappointing number.

[TwoMisfits]

DnD Demo from deadline...not quite a 4 quadrant movie...not pulling great under 25 numbers...

 

"Some 61% of guys showed up to D&D, with men over 25 the biggest demo at 41% (85% grade), women over 25 at 27% (the best grade at 94%, can’t knock that Jean-Page), guys under 25 at 20% (92%), and women under 25 at 12% (also 92% grade). The 18-34 sect came out at 63%. Diversity demos were 48% Caucasian, 26% Hispanic and Latino, 10% Asian, and 8% Black."

[TwoMisfits]

7 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Disappointing drop for Wick but I think this has a lot to do with losing PLFs. Should stabilize next week and hold well throughout April. It’s basically a tradition of this forum to overreact to a single disappointing number.

 

It's like Shazam the week before...only Scream missed the awful weekend drop in weekend 2 b/c it didn't get many PLFs (and Creed 3 b/c it kept PLFs in weekend #2)...

 

I'd expect DnD to also be a pretty bad drop next weekend, although it should have some good weekdays to make up for a big 2nd weekend drop...

Edited April 1, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[TwoMisfits]

10 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

 

If this weekend goes like last weekend, Shazam has the chance to leapfrog to #4 overall since it plays stronger on Sat/Sun and it looks like DnD is not pulling well from under 25s...