April 14th-16th 2023 Weekend Thread | $900K previews for Renfield

[Fanboy]

2 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Mario just made 1.2B+ while D&D is going to struggle to reach 200M. A Puss in Boots 2/HTTYD style animated Zelda movie from someone like Dreamworks is likely the best way to go for this.

IMO that's the least risky way to go and probably what Nintendo and Universal will do if they do decide to ahead with a Zelda production. But if they were able to pull off live action with reviews like D&D, I think you'd potentially looking at a $100M+ opening weekend. A Zelda movie of any kind is risky though because it has an established official timeline that is very complicated, and if they were to ignore that in the film production it might not go over well with fans. 

Donkey Kong and Yoshi movies are obviously less risky and if Illumination/Universal are smart they will do the Donkey Kong spin off now, aim for a late 2025 release, followed by a 2026 or 2027 Mario sequel with a big focus on Yoshi reveal in marketing, then do a Yoshi spin off after that. 

[JustLurking]

3 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Actually anime has become less and less frontloaded in recent years. Today they aren't a lot more frontloaded compared to some fan-driven but badly received movie.

 

The estimate come just right at $5m. 

I stand corrected if it actually hits that. We'll see though.

[grey ghost]

15 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

Nah, should be ages 10 and up. Zelda isn't a "little kids game".

 

Any examples of movies that target 10 and up?

[ViewerAnon]

17 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Breath of the Wild has actually outsold all Mario games besides the original SMB, Mario Kart 8 and Mario Kart WIi for context.  Tears will likely sell even more. 

 

I don't think Tears outselling Breath is a guarantee. The second-Zelda-in-a-gen games tend to sell less copies, such as Ocarina of Time (7.6m) vs. Majora's Mask (3.36m) and Twilight Princess (8.85m) vs. Skyward Sword (3.67m).

Zelda's non-mainline/spinoff titles also don't sell as well as Mario's spin-offs, i.e. Link's Awakening on Switch selling 6 million copies while Luigi's Mansion 3 sold 12.4 million.

Edited April 16, 2023 by ViewerAnon

[MightyDargon]

4 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Any examples of movies that target 10 and up?

Jurassic Park movies (although "PG-13") can basically be watched by 10 and up with few problems.

Edited April 16, 2023 by MightyDargon

[Kon]

16 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

With Zelda though you do have to nail the story aspect. Having it just be a fun time that feels like a video game like Mario won’t cut it there. 

Exactly. That makes more complicated to adapt Zelda.

 

Many Zelda fans wouldn't be happy with a "just fun time" movie.

[XXR & Friends]

Animated Zelda = Half of Mario's total 
Live Action Zelda = 1/3rd of Mario's total 

[thedude11]

1 hour ago, superduperm said:

This is why Reddit needs to pump the brakes on the NCU dreaming.

 

Sure, we might get a sequel. Sure, we MIGHT get a Donkey Kong or Luigi spinoff. We might even get a Zelda movie. But beyond that, the Nintendo characters get pretty obscure. Yoshi, Princess Peach, and outside Mario characters like Metroid, Kirby, Star Fox, Ness, etc. are not going to be nearly strong enough to manage a full movie all by themselves. That’s one reason Marvel was able to create a MCU. Captain America and Ant-Man and Doctor Strange could all carry a movie. I highly doubt any Nintendo character outside of Mario or maybe Link could.

 

If I’m wrong, then that’s awesome. I just have my doubts.

nintendo is also very safe with their IP and won’t risk bombs on risky characters. my guesses are mario sequel, luigi mansion, maybe donkey kong, possibly peach TV show, and maaaaybe kirby because he’s huge in japan and very loveable

[Whydidyoudoit]

32 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Mario just made 1.2B+ while D&D is going to struggle to reach 200M. A Puss in Boots 2/HTTYD style animated Zelda movie from someone like Dreamworks is likely the best way to go for this.

I don't think that would work. A Zelda movie needs to be loyal to the source material and be critically well received by its own accord. An animated movie wouldn't be able to do that imo. 

 

[grey ghost]

4 minutes ago, Whydidyoudoit said:

I don't think that would work. A Zelda movie needs to be loyal to the source material and be critically well received by its own accord. An animated movie wouldn't be able to do that imo. 

 

 

A colorful, oscar worthy, PG-13 animated Zelda movie doesn't sound on target?

Edited April 16, 2023 by grey ghost

[thedude11]

33 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

Is it just me or have we been witnessing OW deflation with blockbusters lately? No 200m+ OW since NWH, all of the movies that are on track to gross over 500m opened under 150m, not to mention inflation meaning that a 170m OW in 2019 translates to over 200m today

you could argue nothing in phase 4 was worthy of 200M and marvel were some of the only movies doing it before. the new jurassic parks were poorly received, as has basically every big IP movie lately. until hollywood makes better movies of huge IPs we won’t see 200M

[upriser7]

3 hours ago, Johnny Tran said:

Top Gun: Maverick 

 

Avatar: The Way of the Water 

 

Super Mario

 

3 very different movies just crushing it domestic and worldwide.  You love to see it. 

well all of those are either sequels or already established popular characters. It would have been lot more awesome if a movie like D&D broke out

[Fanboy]

3 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

 

I don't think Tears outselling Breath is a guarantee. The second-Zelda-in-a-gen games tend to sell less copies, such as Ocarina of Time (7.6m) vs. Majora's Mask (3.36m) and Twilight Princess (8.85m) vs. Skyward Sword (3.67m).

Zelda's non-mainline/spinoff titles also don't sell as well as Mario's spin-offs, i.e. Link's Awakening on Switch selling 6 million copies while Luigi's Mansion 3 sold 12.4 million.

To be fair Link's Awakening was a remake of an old game not that many people remembered vs Luigi's Mansion being a brand new sequel to an established well-liked franchise. The fact that the Skyward Sword remaster on switch sold more than the original on Wii, and Hyrule Warriors 2 sold 3 million copies in its first four days proves that the Zelda franchise has had a massive growth since Breath of the Wild. While Switch sales have declined a little due to saturation it's still selling quite strong and I wouldn't be surprised if Tears of the Kingdom is a 10M+ sales week launcher. 

I've also heard rumors of Universal's Islands of Adventure theme park making way for a Zelda attraction, which supports a case that they're considering some kind of an adaptation for screens either as television series or movie. Of course, it's just a rumor for now and hasn't been confirmed. 

[Lurrrrk]

Mario is probably not beating TLK, but if it does, it will need something like 630m DOM and 1b+ INT.

 

If Mario has the same international legs from the OW as MInions 2, it would hit 1b INT.

 

It will also probably need to breakout in Japan and do good in SK.

[poweranimals]

51 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Mario just made 1.2B+

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. It's currently at about half that. 

[DisposedData]

2 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. It's currently at about half that. 

Unless Mario straight up collapses it isn't missing 1.2b I don't think they are getting ahead of themselves.

[XXR & Friends]

7 minutes ago, Lurrrrk said:

Mario is probably not beating TLK, but if it does, it will need something like 630m DOM and 1b+ INT.

 

If Mario has the same international legs from the OW as MInions 2, it would hit 1b INT.

 

It will also probably need to breakout in Japan and do good in SK.

 

TLK 19' WW isn't happening. I think surpassing Minions for the Illumination record is a great target. 

[MightyDargon]

Mario should easily best the Lion King remake domestically at this rate though.

[DAJK]

1 hour ago, Whydidyoudoit said:

I don't think that would work. A Zelda movie needs to be loyal to the source material and be critically well received by its own accord. An animated movie wouldn't be able to do that imo. 

 

Of course it could be critically well-received. Get the director of PIB2 or Dean DeBlois on board, lean a little into the action, and there you go.

 

55 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. It's currently at about half that. 

It’s been 12 days.

[Whydidyoudoit]

An animated Zelda movie would mean Nintendo didn't understand the lessons of Mario's success and Pikachu's flop: You have to be loyal to the source material. 

Zelda is closer to The Last of Us than to Mario, to give an example. You can see why asking for a The Last of Us animated show would be absurd.