Weekend Thread | Transformers $25.6M FRI

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

Edited June 10, 2023 by Issac Newton

[CJohn]

9M would be surprising but with Summer weekdays getting stronger and previews starting so early I am expecting the Thursday share from OD to be big.

[Bobzaruni]

9M with 7x = 63M for the weekend. @M37 have you made a matrix by any chance for Transformers?

[Mulder]

Woah 9 million would be legit insane and impressive. We'll have to see the IM since like CJohn said, we are in summer now and the IM might not be quite as strong as a result but still. Insane since we had someone here insisting this movie'd go sub-200 worldwide, and everyone else (Much more justifiably) thought this'd be a flop.

[CJohn]

It is tanking in Europe. Lets see if Asia and Latin America save the day.

[Bobzaruni]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

It is tanking in Europe. Lets see if Asia and Latin America save the day.

It's the biggest opening in Peru this year and it looks like it's doing decently well in China

[Mulder]

4 minutes ago, CJohn said:

It is tanking in Europe. Lets see if Asia and Latin America save the day.

Yeah international's kinda letting it down but as of right now, it's guaranteed to pass 200 worldwide lol.

[Issac Newton]

3 minutes ago, CJohn said:

It is tanking in Europe. Lets see if Asia and Latin America save the day.

Going good in SEA. Not much drop from T5. But, seems like East Asia is again off-roaded

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

10.2 for ATSV according to Voldemort

@across the Jat versetweeted 10m a few hours before that too

The battle for #1 this weekend will be nailbiting! Will both go over $60m?

[JustLurking]

35 minutes ago, Bobzaruni said:

It's the biggest opening in Peru this year and it looks like it's doing decently well in China

decently well really is not that decent if the previous film did more than double - china will be one of its biggest drops from TLK going from 230 to ~80-90

[JohnnyGossamer]

16 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

10.2 for ATSV according to Voldemort

@across the Jat versetweeted 10m a few hours before that too

The battle for #1 this weekend will be nailbiting! Will both go over $60m?

Oh, man. That'd be awesome. Let's hope!

[Mulder]

I have to say also, if RoTB does overperform and cross 60 million this weekend...it's not a great sign for Flash. Maybe the marketplace is in a place now to support consistent big weekends buuut I personally have my doubts. Flash might end up getting hurt by coming in after a 90 million OW, 120 million OW, and a (if this checks out) 60 million OW.

[kayumanggi]

7 minutes ago, Mulder said:

I have to say also, if RoTB does overperform and cross 60 million this weekend...it's not a great sign for Flash. Maybe the marketplace is in a place now to support consistent big weekends buuut I personally have my doubts. Flash might end up getting hurt by coming in after a 90 million OW, 120 million OW, and a (if this checks out) 60 million OW.

 

But if its bound to hurt THE FLASH, why didn't it hurt ROTB? 

[Mulder]

2 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

But if its bound to hurt THE FLASH, why didn't it hurt ROTB? 

I feel like the more big openings in a row, the more likely it is. RoTB also targeted a somewhat different audience in general, the tracking thread discussed this.

[Valonqar]

37 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

10.2 for ATSV according to Voldemort

@across the Jat versetweeted 10m a few hours before that too

The battle for #1 this weekend will be nailbiting! Will both go over $60m?

 

SV will edge it out and laso have sub 50% drop.

[Starphanluke]

If Transformers somehow manages to hit $60m domestic, that's honestly kind of a win for the franchise. Stopped the bleeding domestically at least.

 

But... it sort of leaves Paramount in a weird position. If it was an outright bomb everywhere, it's easier to leave the franchise behind. But if it shows signs of life... suddenly it's hard for Paramount to completely ignore. But it isn't what it used to be. Tricky tricky.

[Bobzaruni]

28 minutes ago, Starphanluke said:

If Transformers somehow manages to hit $60m domestic, that's honestly kind of a win for the franchise. Stopped the bleeding domestically at least.

 

But... it sort of leaves Paramount in a weird position. If it was an outright bomb everywhere, it's easier to leave the franchise behind. But if it shows signs of life... suddenly it's hard for Paramount to completely ignore. But it isn't what it used to be. Tricky tricky.

The best option would then be to continue on the good will of this movie and with receptive audiences it could boost a sequel further

[kayumanggi]

37 minutes ago, Mulder said:

I feel like the more big openings in a row, the more likely it is. RoTB also targeted a somewhat different audience in general, the tracking thread discussed this.

 

I really hope it's a positive sign that the audiences are more willing to spend now and that a month like June can accommodate multiple big releases just like in pre-pandemic times. But, yeah. Casualties are inevitable. We can only hope for the best.

 

[Valonqar]

Nothing is a win if a movie doesn't recoup its budget and make profit most of all. It's a win only from fandom perspective but not for studio's. Heads should roll when unreasonably budgeted movie doesn't break even or only does that. No one invests noth of 200M to lose that money or get back the exact amount. 

 

Not talking just about ROTB. TLM is another. It shouldn't cost that much. There's no excuse for overestimating a demand and wasting money that doesn't even show on the screen (poor effects). 

Edited June 9, 2023 by Valonqar

[JohnnyGossamer]

53 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

But if its bound to hurt THE FLASH, why didn't it hurt ROTB? 

Yeah. I think it's the opposite. Makes me think Flash might have decent walk ups for a superhero movie.