Weekend Thread | Transformers $25.6M FRI

[Starphanluke]

10 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Nothing is a win if a movie doesn't recoup its budget and make profit most of all. It's a win only from fandom perspective but not for studio's. Heads should roll when unreasonably budgeted movie doesn't break even or only does that. No one invests noth of 200M to lose that money or get back the exact amount. 

 

Not talking just about ROTB. TLM is another. It shouldn't cost that much. There's no excuse for overestimating a demand and wasting money that doesn't even show on the screen (poor effects). 

I definitely agree there's no reason for RotB to be $200m (although there are lots of Bots with lots of screentime, so I can see how it came in over Bumblebee), but I don't think this kind of stuff is nearly as black-and-white as what you're boiling it down to. Especially when you consider that Hasbro is helping fund Transformers, and part of their success metric is how it moves toy sales, which a stronger-than-expected performance at the domestic BO will definitely do. Idk. Paramount isn't drowning in viable IP in the way Disney and Universal are. If Transformers shows even small signs of life, it's something they have to consider.

Edited June 9, 2023 by Starphanluke

[Cappoedameron]

 

 

 

 

Transformers performance at the biggest screen near me for opening day.

 

Each showing is roughly 3 hours apart starting at 12:45.

Edited June 9, 2023 by Cappoedameron

[vafrow]

With the performance of ATSV on Thursday and ROTB in previews, there's a good chance both can crack $60M.

 

Since things reopened, the best second place finish for a film was this weekend last year when Maverick made $51.8M in its third weekend. I feel its pretty likely that record falls.

[SpiderByte]

Huh, that's much better than I anticipated.

[filmscholar]

9 Million? Could Transformers be back?  Not Bad.   That's almost what "TLM" made previews.  And more than "Fast X"'s 7 Million.   Maybe over 70 OW is in the cards folks, "Fast X" made 67 off 7 Million Previews.  Doesn't "Transformers" always do well in China/Asia too.    "SV2" is still doing gangbusters domestically.  I didn't think it would Top "Mario" but I was very pleased with 120 and it's weekdays are doing good.  But there's some cross demos with Teen/Young Adults  seeing "Transformers" and "SV2"  this weekend.    I also agree with what someone already said, this is going to be a big Market test.  We've essentially had 3 Straight Mega OW's.   

 

I don't think we've seen this since the Pandemic as far as Big Openers back to back to back to back in a short time.   Many thought "Transformers" was going to get the short end of the stick.  But don't underestimate these 1980's Properties.  They have very loyal fanbases.  "Bumblebee" was marketed as a more small adventure.  This one was marketed as a return to the Big Transformers spectacle and it dropped it right in June just as Summer really kicks off.     This is why I will not write off "Indy 5".  These Multi-Generational Fanbases are very loyal.  

Edited June 9, 2023 by filmscholar

[Brainbug]

This is far more than i expected for Transformers. Maybe goes to show that the brand itself is more alive than i thought? In any case, 9M previews and a high 50s / low 60s OW would be solid and very good news for the marketplace.

[JustLurking]

It is weird to see transformers doing so poor OS while it holds well domestically considering this was always an insanely OS-heavy franchise.

[Cappoedameron]

Spiderverse second week at the same theater and got its own big screens.

 

 

 

 

 

Four showings, respectively 4 hours apart starting at 11:15 am.

[Krissykins]

Remember the $9m includes the early access shows as well.

 

Still a pleasant surprise either way. 
 

High 50’s rather than 30-40m that seemed possible just a while ago. 

[Alexander]

12 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

It is weird to see transformers doing so poor OS while it holds well domestically considering this was always an insanely OS-heavy franchise.

But first five OS audience were interested because those were basically big-budget Michael Bay movies. Then Bumblebee was a cute Christmas movie. However, this one offers very little for non-american audience and when you add this current trend when a lot of blockbusters finish 45:55 - 55:45 this can't be shocking. Ticket prices are ridiculous so why would that many people pay to see brands they don't really care about and when all these movies look the same. I think only Indy and MI will finish OS around 70%.

[Cap]

 

[Day and Date The Best]

1 hour ago, Bobzaruni said:

The best option would then be to continue on the good will of this movie and with receptive audiences it could boost a sequel further

That good will aint that strong for a like 200 million dollar budget movie on just production cost. It's definetly not the best option, an explorable option but not the best one. 

[Cmasterclay]

I guess Transformers turned out to be a "hit" in disguise!!

[Eric the IF]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I guess Transformers turned out to be a "hit" in disguise!!

You could have said it was more than meets the eye.

[AJG]

13 minutes ago, Cap said:

 

 

Stuff like this is why I we should really stop worrying when a movie flops. We don't know if the films we call successes even made a profit.

[M37]

3 hours ago, Bobzaruni said:

9M with 7x = 63M for the weekend. @M37 have you made a matrix by any chance for Transformers?

No I haven’t, and honestly don’t really have a good read on IM for this one, but would start with ~7x and wiggle up or down from there. Which means $60M+ OW is very much in play form where is looks like Thursday is going to land 

[Cappoedameron]

Isn't this Transformers sitting on a close to 200 million budget? Something tells me it won't even break even or make a profit with that big of a budget.

[Bobzaruni]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

No I haven’t, and honestly don’t really have a good read on IM for this one, but would start with ~7x and wiggle up or down from there. Which means $60M+ OW is very much in play form where is looks like Thursday is going to land 

Makes sense, feels a little fan-fare heavy? I'd wager the IM plays between a CBM and Family movies, slightly above Spider-Verse.

[TwoMisfits]

So, if it's:

Wed $1.5M

Thurs $7.5M

 

I could see the weekend ending anywhere between 5x and 8x full Thursday (aka $9M), depending if Thursday strength was true strength or pull forward of fans and casuals from the east coast issues...the air quality is improving today and should be fine tomorrow, so pool time might be a priority after 2-3 days cooped inside...

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Glad to see Transformers overperforming in the US. I just got out of it and it was overall pretty good, even if it's not quite what I wanted out of a Transformers relaunch. The overseas numbers are a shame so far, as I want to see where this story goes in future movies. The domestic overperformance will certainly leave the parties involved conflicted. I am worried, but hoping for the best at this point.