Steve Rogers Birthday Bash Weekend Thread | 5-Day #s: Indy 83.4, Elemental 18, Spidey 17.65, Sound of Freedom 14.2, No Hard Feelings 11.3

[LegionWrex]

3 minutes ago, MattW said:

Interesting we're getting so many openings in the same range, Fast x, TF7, Flash, Indie, MI7 looks to be in that range and possibly Oppenheimer as well. Does this mean blue beetle and/or Meg 2 break out?

Still thinking Meg 2 breaks out, at least overseas. Blue Beetle is up in the air - must be glad it's budget is lower then most of the other blockbusters this year though.

[TheFlatLannister]

5 minutes ago, MattW said:

Does this mean blue beetle and/or Meg 2 break out?

I'm betting Blue beetle comes in well below Shazam 2 OW 

[Bobzaruni]

4 minutes ago, MattW said:

Interesting we're getting so many openings in the same range, Fast x, TF7, Flash, Indie, MI7 looks to be in that range and possibly Oppenheimer as well. Does this mean blue beetle and/or Meg 2 break out?

those 5 (maybe barring Indy 5), seem to have a generally similar viewer profile domestically — people who don't have to be convinced to go to the movies — but they don't attract a more general and wider audience [I do think MI7 will be higher however]. 

[DAJK]

I could genuinely see Blue Beetle opening in the teens.

[Bob Train]

Blue Beetle will open above No Way Home

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

2 hours ago, cannastop said:

Gotta look better than that at least. That's the issue with cutting budgets.

it looks REALLY bad when seen on a big screen, from the trailers.

The trailer for Ruby Gillman played before my Little Mermaid screening and someone in the theater just yelled out, "Low budget!" 

 

I think if studios want to do lower budget animation features, they'll have to play around with the styles and not just try to do the "mainstream 3D computer animation for kids" look on the cheap, because it shows...

 

 

2 hours ago, grim22 said:

This Indiewire tweet is the dumbest legal defense i have seen today, and today was a doozy in terms of dumb legal defenses

 

 

It figures his lawyer would try that; she has a pretty terrible track record defending Paul Haggis and Jen Shah. Also, I don't know how/why in the world Meagan Good thought being linked to Jonathan Majors right now was a great idea.

Edited July 1, 2023 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[Mr Terrific]

Looking at many current blockbusters struggling relevant to budget, how impactful was/is covid-era production a part of the problem?

 

[LegionWrex]

6 minutes ago, Mr Terrific said:

Looking at many current blockbusters struggling relevant to budget, how impactful was/is covid-era production a part of the problem?

 

Indy and M:I were both heavily affected by COVID as they were shot during the pandemic. The Flash was also shot during the pandemic but unlike Indy and M:I production didn't shut down. I think it's a case by case basis.

[rebelscum86]

34 minutes ago, Deathlife said:

 

I don't buy this. I'm a credit risk manager, so I know some of this stuff too.

 

Disney's debt is $48bn and they have cash of $9bn however they are NOT going to use their liquid assets to pay off amortized debt. That doesn't make any sense.

 

Yes, their debt is relatively high but 1. Disney has huge revenue and receivables 2. They have massive market capitalization of around $188 bn, they could very easily raise capital if required. Disney's EBIT covers its debt by 4.4 times. Disney grew EBIT by around 20% and if it keeps growing they will wipe off that debt fairly easily.

 

Disney's free cash flow for the last few years was impacted by the pandemic but they are quite clearly in recovery.

 

Disney isn't any significant problems at all unless their park business collapses which is unlikely.

 

 

Huge revenue and receivables compared to what? Fortune 500 or it's own debt? And grew it's EBIT by 20% compared to when? 2020 when it posted a loss? 2021 when we came out of the lockdowns? I also don't see where their EBIT is 4x times it's debt.

Net Revenue before taxes was 5.3b if you add back 1.4b interest expense that 6.7b while your own number for their total debt was $48b.

I do agree they aren't going to use their $9b cash to pay off debt early, but it's their ability to afford anymore interest expense which is a going concern. The 48b they owe was when interest rates were around 2%. Now they are 5-7%.

[emoviefan]

36 minutes ago, MattW said:

Interesting we're getting so many openings in the same range, Fast x, TF7, Flash, Indie, MI7 looks to be in that range and possibly Oppenheimer as well. Does this mean blue beetle and/or Meg 2 break out?

Do you really think that the Meg 2 and Blue Beetle are going to out open MI 7 and these other movies? I don't think so.

[Godzilla]

https://www.vulture.com/2023/06/indiana-jones-5-could-become-a-top-gun-maverick-level-hit.html

 

A Vulture article from yesterday lol. This guy has to be joking lol. Maybe he meant as big of a flop as Maverick was a success? 

[Rthmessiah]

2 hours ago, screambaby said:

Any word on a Friday number other then deadlines wishful thinking?

DOD About the same I had 23m

[Johnny Tran]

Hate to be on some "I told everyone" but I did say that I just didn't see it possible for Indy to open to $80-$90M.  I would have been shocked by that result.  It could have some legs because I do think the crowd will skew older but what kind of legs can you really expect from this opening.  

 

 

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, Eric Jones said:

I know that. I still think it's annoying and that a lot of blockbuster movies today feel padded and don't use their long runtimes well. Just because long movies are successful doesn't mean I can't criticize them.

Wasn't directing that at you. That's why I didn't make my comment a response to yours. A few other people made that complaint too. Weird you would think I directed just at you. Just expressing my opinion on not having a problem with long movies as long as I feel the runtime was used well. 

[Johnny Tran]

Also,  this doesn't excuse how badly The Flash performed at all but if there's something that WB can take from these other outcomes, it's that The Flash probably never had a chance to begin with. 

 

The theaters aren't completely dead but it takes something really special to get people in the seats.  This is a bad Summer. It doesn't bode well for the future.  

 

Maybe Hollywood will start to get a little creative and learn something from this but I doubt it.  

[Deathlife]

15 minutes ago, rebelscum86 said:

 

Huge revenue and receivables compared to what? Fortune 500 or it's own debt? And grew it's EBIT by 20% compared to when? 2020 when it posted a loss? 2021 when we came out of the lockdowns? I also don't see where their EBIT is 4x times it's debt.

Net Revenue before taxes was 5.3b if you add back 1.4b interest expense that 6.7b while your own number for their total debt was $48b.

I do agree they aren't going to use their $9b cash to pay off debt early, but it's their ability to afford anymore interest expense which is a going concern. The 48b they owe was when interest rates were around 2%. Now they are 5-7%.

 

EBIT (and their revenue) grew year on year between 2021 and 2022. When looking at debt to income, I'm looking at annualized figures not the actual total. They aren't paying down that loan all at once.

 

If interest rates goes up, Disney can easily approach their creditors to restructure. Its a massive company with gigantic assets, IP and goodwill, creditors will be inclined to listen to them. Not to mention we don't know if that debt is fixed or variable (it's likely variable and is subject to interest rate risk).  That being said, with a market cap in the hundreds of billions, they can very, very easily raise capital. 

 

Disney from what we can see publicly isn't any real trouble at all. The issues they had  came about from the pandemic which they are recovering from and also from the massive investment in streaming which is losing money (because of production costs and Asian customer losses). Objectively, looking at them their debt is high no doubt but it's a situation they can manage effectively as their business rebounds from pandemic shutdowns. 

 

(But we can discuss more in the Disney thread because we are derailing this one will all the financial analysis :).

Edited July 1, 2023 by Deathlife

[Johnny Tran]

We are going to see Indy 5 tomorrow night though.  I was on the fence but I was talked into it and I'm kinda into the idea now because I was just watching Raiders of the Lost Ark tonight.  

[screambaby]

13 minutes ago, Godzilla said:

https://www.vulture.com/2023/06/indiana-jones-5-could-become-a-top-gun-maverick-level-hit.html

 

A Vulture article from yesterday lol. This guy has to be joking lol. Maybe he meant as big of a flop as Maverick was a success? 

You rule as always

[Blankments]

why doesn't the thread have indiana jones in the title lmao cmon now, july 4 isn't until tues

[Godzilla]

15 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

Hate to be on some "I told everyone" but I did say that I just didn't see it possible for Indy to open to $80-$90M.  I would have been shocked by that result.  It could have some legs because I do think the crowd will skew older but what kind of legs can you really expect from this opening.  

 

 

Whoever decided to premiere this at CANNES should be banned from the industry. Its had a month long negative buzz.