July 5 & 6 Numbers Thread

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

33 minutes ago, Elden Lord said:

1st of all it isn’t going to make $400 mil. Right now it’s at a 50/50 split on Dom/Int, so at best it could hope for is $300 mil WW at this point, unless something crazy happens.

1. International totals update every Sunday night while domestic updates daily so the actual ratio is lower than reported on websites like the-numbers and BOM

 

2. International holds are proving to be much stronger than DOM, with 12+ territories increasing in their second weekend, so that ratio will only go down with time.

  

On 7/3/2023 at 2:25 AM, Issac Newton said:

Several markets saw increases including Korea (+41%), Australia (+39%), Germany (+18%), Brazil (+15%) and France (+5%) as well as Austria (+26%), Belgium (+19%), Switzerland (+12%), Malaysia (+12%), Czech Rep (+12%), Vietnam (+8%) and Peru (+1%).

 

3. DOM has kids off school already, several territories overseas do not, so relative to DOM their numbers are lower than they will be in a few weeks.

 

4. It's not even released in the UK and Japan yet, which will be top 5 territories for the movie. Japan in particular is a wildcard where it could follow Korea and pull Inside Out numbers, but even on the more grounded predictions it will still add a decent chunk of change.

 

40:60 DOM:OS should be locked which is $375m based on the DOM trajectory but I wouldn't be surprised if the ratio ends up much lower than that and it challenges break-even in its theatrical run. 

[Deathlife]

56 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

It isn't just people here. When studios waste obscene amounts of money on budget and marketing you know that they hardly expect less from those overly expensive movies. TLM was expected to at least replicate Aladdin's run if not become BP like phenomenon (as per Halle Bailey). DoD was supposed to become a franchise starter for the new lead (as per KK and PWB). The Flash was supposed to save DCEU. Quantumania was supposed to set up Kang's Dynasty. So you bet that all those movies seemed like minimum 1B grossers on paper hence ridiculous budgets and over-marketing.

When and where did Bailey compare TLM to BP?

 

Or where did she speak about the movie having the impact of BP or anything like that?

 

 

Edited July 7, 2023 by Deathlife

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[rebelscum86]

1 hour ago, InVy said:

the last PIxar original in theatres Coco "only" made 210 in USA. It only became a "classic" much later. Soul probably would have made more but still 200m being the ceiling for such a good film shows that even before Disney+ & Covid  it was tough for original movies.

 

1 hour ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

Elemental is literally their first original film to get a real theatrical run in theaters since 2017. We all know what happened to their other movies from 2020 onward and this was never gonna have an easy job performing strong right out of the gate, so I think that its performance is merely a trendsetter for upcoming films from the brand, which can surely increase its results if similarly well received. Let Pixar do Pixar.

 

1 hour ago, Elden Lord said:

 

And how many times does it need to be pointed out that studios don't spend north of $300 million for moral victories of future movies? Trying to spin a loss of possible $100 million (or more) into something like it will get good views on D+, a sub service that is itself hemorrhaging money that Elemental cannot make a dent in, is not why a studio shells out $300 million. 

 

Disney is not worried about the future of cinema when it can't turn a profit on it's current cinema...

 

Makeup on a pig my friend... 

 

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

But, it's only viable if they can make the original stuff cheaper.  I'm not sure Pixar can do Pixar at a lower cost...at least, they've never done it yet.  Disney can't take $100M losses b/c they can't bring the budget from $200M to $100M (where this leggy performance shows it would be viable)...

 

2 hours ago, Mr Terrific said:

As a Disney stan, I can tell you Mickey wants parents’ money more than kids’ adrenochrome. 

 

As a parent I can say Disney is not managing it's current market space well. They have 2 fan bases, Disney Adults and children and have been catering to the Disney adults in ways that alienate parents of the children. I understand why they want to grow with their audience but they are always going to make more from kids and don't know why catering to one has to include alienating the other. They really need to make Disney Adult stuff on a smaller budget intended for their niche audience if that's the case.

I can say in my house we have a watch 1st before the kids with Disney now which is not a good thing, parents like brands they just trust. Encanto and Onward are big wins, but my wife watched Turning Red and said "don't let the kids watch this". I will also say this isn't political and not the issues you are probably thinking about. (we are very economic left, we are just in our 40s with kids and magically makes us more socially conservative when we were never considered that before) It's  much more cultural / generational and the subversiveness is not good for an age group it is difficult to get to do normal constructive behavior. 

Kids are tough, they are destructive selfish little humans without inhibition. It takes a lot of guidance and they need rules. Stories that deconstruct and tell you to question rules is not anything someone under 12 is going to benefit from.

[ZeroHour]

You know a lot of things can be true at once. Certainly Disney is aiming for their movies to make money in their theatrical runs and this summer has to be disappointing to them. It's also true that they're probably the best at padding their profits with ancillary sources of income through things like merchandise, and that softens the blow and probably gets some of these films firmly in the black, but I don't think Disney looks at their major films being saved by their toy line as a big win. It's also true that most of the budgets we've seen this summer have been blown up by covid and covid protocols, so Disney has probably not been quite as irresponsible with their budgeting as they've been made out to be. You look at something like TLM, which was originally supposed to starting shooting in March 2020 (and had major sets built) and it's safe to guess that's probably a movie that comes in at least $50 million cheaper in pre-covid times without the cost overruns of covid delays and on-set covid protocols. At the same time, even with covid costs, that $300 million Indy budget is crazy.

 

As for Elemental, it's kind of nuts to argue its legs don't matter! This is a movie that could have easily failed to hit $100 million domestic if it didn't catch on with its target audience. No doubt Disney and Pixar are much happier to see this film hit $400-500 million worldwide than to completely sink like Lightyear did. Losing less money is still better than losing more. And yes, it's better for the Pixar brand to have a well-liked film out there that's holding up over the summer than to have a dud. Still, they won't be happy with this film losing money theatrically and it won't be surprising to see Disney look at reigning in costs at Pixar (which unfortunately will likely come at the expense of their employees so nothing to really celebrate). 

 

The Disney+ element is a big black box. Having theatrical films is an absolute necessity for that service to add new subscribers and prevent churn. Movies like Elemental are huge for that service and it's wrong to say that Star Wars and Marvel shows are more important. The biggest consistent performers for that service are Bluey and Moana, and movies like Turning Red and Luca have continued to be some of the biggest movies in streaming. But what is that worth to Disney money wise? Who knows really. The funny thing is, if they dropped Elemental directly to the service, no one would bat an eye about its budget. I mean what does a season of the Mandalorian or Secret Invasion cost? Probably at least $150 million!

 

[rebelscum86]

6 minutes ago, rebelscum86 said:

 

 

 

 

 

As a parent I can say Disney is not managing it's current market space well. They have 2 fan bases, Disney Adults and children and have been catering to the Disney adults in ways that alienate parents of the children. I understand why they want to grow with their audience but they are always going to make more from kids and don't know why catering to one has to include alienating the other. They really need to make Disney Adult stuff on a smaller budget intended for their niche audience if that's the case.

I can say in my house we have a watch 1st before the kids with Disney now which is not a good thing, parents like brands they just trust. Encanto and Onward are big wins, but my wife watched Turning Red and said "don't let the kids watch this". I will also say this isn't political and not the issues you are probably thinking about. (we are very economic left, we are just in our 40s with kids and magically makes us more socially conservative when we were never considered that before) It's  much more cultural / generational and the subversiveness is not good for an age group it is difficult to get to do normal constructive behavior. 

Kids are tough, they are destructive selfish little humans without inhibition. It takes a lot of guidance and they need rules. Stories that deconstruct and tell you to question rules is not anything someone under 12 is going to benefit from.

 

another thing I never see mentioned Disney's trouble with some parents actually started in the 2000s with their Disney channel shows. Many were problematic. We are anti-excess / materialism / consumerism and the Disney channel kids shows presented a very false lavish lifestyle as normal.

[Valonqar]

43 minutes ago, Deathlife said:

When and where did Bailey compare TLM to BP?

 

Or where did she speak about the movie having the impact of BP or anything like that?

 

 

Check TLM thread. Fans say she said it in some interviews. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

55 minutes ago, rebelscum86 said:

 

another thing I never see mentioned Disney's trouble with some parents actually started in the 2000s with their Disney channel shows. Many were problematic. We are anti-excess / materialism / consumerism and the Disney channel kids shows presented a very false lavish lifestyle as normal.

As a little kid I loved Pee Wee (both HBO and kids one), Dinosaurs, The Simpsons, Ren and Stimpy, Batman Animated Series. I don't know... Those were pretty popular with a lot of kids actually. Kids under the age of 12. I'd say stuff now, especially, Disney is safer than ever.

 

 

Pixar stuff was never full on safe and did huge numbers once upon a time. Movies like Rise of Gru are the origin of an anti-hero and did huge money... I know it's not Disney but still. Coco the kid literally does exactly what he's told not to do it's a renowned classic and did 815M WW in 2017. 

 

There have been popular movies aimed and super successful with kids that have a running theme of rebelling against parents or whatever authority since forever. I'm not entirely buying this argument.

Edited July 7, 2023 by JohnnyGossamer

[Elden Lord]

3 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

You literally lose on the first sentence.

 

Movie hasn't opened in every market yet, it's having Titanic-sized runs in certain countries (namely South Korea), it's holding monstruously OS as well. It's already at 100 million OS without UK, Japan and some European countries.

 

150 million DOM + 250 million internationally for 400 million is not at all unlikely and it'll likely come closer to that than 300 million.

 

But whatever, if you're happier with the argument that it's unsalvageable, cool, good for you.

 

Admittedly I did not realize it has not opened in UK and Japan yet. /shrug

 

The legginess of this movie is stemming from a very low OW, which can skew what is and isn't leggy, especially when we are still early on in the run. The question is, will the legs hold? I think you are assuming way to high on the upside. I do not think these numbers will hold. You got all hot and bothered over my comment about it's legginess (which was a factual comment), and had to come rushing to it's defense. You than go on a tirade about Disney not caring about losing money, which I am sorry, that is nonsense on its face, as Disney is all about separating us from as much of our money as possible, and not leaving a penny on the table.  

 

I think, that even with the current positive WOM we have seen the ceiling (or close to the ceiling) because of the Holiday, even with good WOM, there needs to be WOM in the press in order to keep the ball going, and Elemental is not news anymore. So IMO, these holds will start dropping hard and fast. But that is just my opinion. 

 

The idea that we will see a 5x multiplier (domestic) just doesn't seem in the cards for me on this movie. I used the $150 million domestic as "for the sake of the argument" number, but, I think that is wishful thinking. The people that are influenced by positive WOM are going to see it now, thus the good overall holds, which will start to drop. Could repeat viewings hold it up? Possibly, but not likely.. again IMO.  

 

Internationally, again, I think we will start seeing things drop. Those holds are also based on stunted openings in a lot of places. While I would increase my final BO above $300 million WW, in lieu of my mistake on the UK and Japan, I would still not give this movie anything above $350 million WW total. Again, there is nothing in "ether", so to speak, that is propelling this film to some kind of cultural must see that will keep pushing new asses into the seats  over a sustained time period. IMO...

 

With that all said, even if Elemental hits your $400 million number.. that still means Disney loses $100 million dollars at the theatrical run. There is no way that is being made up in home releases or new sybs on D+. Disney is not in the business of losing money, Which is why they are currently in fiscal trouble, and why my stock is now down almost 45%....

Edited July 7, 2023 by Elden Lord

[rebelscum86]

41 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

As a little kid I loved Pee Wee (both HBO and kids one), Dinosaurs, The Simpsons, Ren and Stimpy, Batman Animated Series. I don't know... Those were pretty popular with a lot of kids actually. Kids under the age of 12. I'd say stuff now, especially, Disney is safer than ever.

 

I would say parents are changing now, we had 2 generations of latch key kids were no one guided us but screens and pop culture and many of us aren't better off for it. I see the sentiment a lot of, well I was allowed to do this and it didn't hurt me while the person has not met any life achievements (not directed at you, very specifically thinking of a group of unsuccessful youtubers who do this)

I also think some of those shows are appropriate or inappropriate in different ways. I think Dinosaurs is probably fine, some of my older kids are just getting to super heroes now at 6&7 (they didn't even know what guns were yet) and while TAS Batman is dark aesthetically and can be scary for a kid, it's not subversive which I find worse as a parent. The lego batman movie is terrible for kids.

We are a very big lego house, and both the Lego movie and lego Batman was a major WTF were they thinking moment and the 1st time my wife and I were like whoa we have to pay attention to this stuff. So I guess things look aesthetically safer now and less violence than the 80s, but the moral lessons can be terrible and go directly against what parents are putting a lot of effort into teaching their kids.

 

So much of it is just mean spirited now that feels like the creator working through their own issues and being petty.

Edited July 7, 2023 by rebelscum86
added a thought

[Austin]

I don't want to make this into a RT spam thread or anything but MI7 just went up to 99% on RT...

Don't know how long it will stick though.

[Mr Terrific]

If you think your child has to be protected from the wild liberalism and subversive messages of Disney… oh crap. 

C’mon!

I don’t think Disney puts increasing numbers of women, POC and gay people  in their products out of good will. 
The population is going that way no matter how anyone feels about it. 
Any indoctrination is about getting young people interested in buying their material permanently. That’s as evil as you want to make it. 
The people freaking out about one kiss in Lightyear are the same people who were leaving the NFL forever over anthem issues. You’ll come back or they’ll be fine without you.  
 

[Eric is Quiet]

Moderation

 

 

I have no idea what is happening here, but we're done with whatever the heck @rebelscum86 is squabbling about and this hyperbole over Elemental's box office. Please talk about the actual numbers, or you will see warning points.

[JustLurking]

maybe june was just cursed

[Deathlife]

1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

Check TLM thread. Fans say she said it in some interviews. 

 

She never said anything like that.  That's why I asked.

 

This is Bailey's first movie (she and her sister are both singers) and she's been very careful with her words.

 

It's like she was coached to say as little as possible to remain completely uncontroversial.

 

 

 

 

[Deathlife]

Regarding Elemental's box office, I think the movie's performance is actually very encouraging for Pixar.

 

After Disney execs dumping all their animated movies to D+, putting out a well-received movie with good legs bodes well for the future of the brand. Yeah, Disney will take a financial hit but they will be happy that audiences are warming up to their movies again after some very boneheaded decisions. That is literally all they can do now, rebuild the goodwill and try to make their movies events again. Once audiences realize the movies aren't going to the service immediately and if the movies are good, they should start recovering at the box office (eventually).

 

My kids saw an Elemental ad on YouTube and they've been bothering me to take them to see it. I must confess, just like most parents, I've just slipped into the habit of waiting for Disney animated films to come to the service. Seriously, paying for theatre tickets and then PAYING AGAIN for D+ is a tough sell for a lot of people.  However, hearing the movie is going to be in theatres for the long-run, I just might take them to see it.

[Poseidon]

14 minutes ago, Eric Bunny said:

Moderation

 

 

I have no idea what is happening here, but we're done with whatever the heck @rebelscum86 is squabbling about and this hyperbole over Elemental's box office. Please talk about the actual numbers, or you will see warning points.

 

Why wouldn't you just suggest to have the discussion they obviously put some thought and time into to another and more fitting place, instead of such a condescending statement?

[baumer]

 

[harry713]

2 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

You literally lose on the first sentence.

 

Movie hasn't opened in every market yet, it's having Titanic-sized runs in certain countries (namely South Korea), it's holding monstruously OS as well. It's already at 100 million OS without UK, Japan and some European countries.

 

150 million DOM + 250 million internationally for 400 million is not at all unlikely and it'll likely come closer to that than 300 million.

 

But whatever, if you're happier with the argument that it's unsalvageable, cool, good for you.

 

Not to mention Disney/Pixar (and children's films in general) collect from ancillaries unlike most other types of properties. The fact that Disney's main moneymakers are their parks and merch lines, if this film proves to be as popular among families as Coco has, they'll have more than made their money back in the long run.