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Shawn Robbins

The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

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2 minutes ago, dallas said:

Wasn't Bad Boys 3 only tracking for 35-40M before it opened to 62M? I think this will crack 50M just fine.  

Yeah it probably will it just seems to be having the same presale issues a lot of movies have had lately where it stays static going into release week. The accleration needed is not happening yet. It's easy to be gun shy right now that the GA just stays home for this too. 

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5 minutes ago, dallas said:

Wasn't Bad Boys 3 only tracking for 35-40M before it opened to 62M? I think this will crack 50M just fine.  

That was also four years ago and pre-COVID, when walkups were expected. Nowadays, walkups are only something you're lucky to get and movies are more presales-driven than ever. So yeah, 50M is still very much in doubt, and it's honestly easier to just expect the worst and just...pretend that opening in the 40s is good for this.

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22 minutes ago, Eric Lasagna said:

That was also four years ago and pre-COVID, when walkups were expected. Nowadays, walkups are only something you're lucky to get and movies are more presales-driven than ever. So yeah, 50M is still very much in doubt, and it's honestly easier to just expect the worst and just...pretend that opening in the 40s is good for this.

I think for the movie itself a opening in the 40-50 range would be just fine. If we believe Sony they kept the budget at the same 90m For LIfe had and if this has good WOM it will have legs and be Counterprograming  to IO 2 on Fathers Day weekend and in weekend 3 I do not think they have to lose any sleep over Bikeriders. For the overall marketplace yeah only opening in the 40s will suck.

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1 hour ago, Eric Lasagna said:

That was also four years ago and pre-COVID, when walkups were expected. Nowadays, walkups are only something you're lucky to get and movies are more presales-driven than ever. So yeah, 50M is still very much in doubt, and it's honestly easier to just expect the worst and just...pretend that opening in the 40s is good for this.

 

My big question on this is what the demos are going to be.

 

Even without the slap, I don't think the 15-25 demographic has much affinity for Will Smith. That younger demo though is usually key to getting a big walk up.

 

The breakdown of sales on my numbers tilt heavily to the ages 19+ VIP screens. That strikes me as older audiences looking for an outing without teenagers. That audience is important, but there's a limit to how much business they can drive.

 

I can definitely be wrong. Top Gun Maverick looked like it was for older audiences as well until it wasn't. But every day that we don't see trends reverse is making me nervous.

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7 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Isn't BB4 tracking for over 5M previews? That would comfortably mean 50M OW

Yeah some of the comps are saying that but it seems to be stuck in neutral right now and some comps are going down when they should be going up. This is the way things are right now. A not small portion of the GA is just not excited for anything it seems. Fingers crossed it can pop and start going up again. Like I said up above for the budget they kept it at a opening in the 40's would be fine but for the marketplace getting a  lift not so great.

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18 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

My big question on this is what the demos are going to be.

 

Even without the slap, I don't think the 15-25 demographic has much affinity for Will Smith. That younger demo though is usually key to getting a big walk up.

 

The breakdown of sales on my numbers tilt heavily to the ages 19+ VIP screens. That strikes me as older audiences looking for an outing without teenagers. That audience is important, but there's a limit to how much business they can drive.

 

I can definitely be wrong. Top Gun Maverick looked like it was for older audiences as well until it wasn't. But every day that we don't see trends reverse is making me nervous.

I guess the question is what DEMO's drove those great walkups 4 year ago. I have a hard seeing the demo's change that much in just 4 years but that was pre covid and the BO was in pretty good shape until the world went to shit.

 

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1 minute ago, Maggie said:

Bad Boys 3 made 6.4M in January previews for a 63M OW. This one is releasing through the summer.

Which is why even if does not blowup opening weekend if the WOM is good it will be fine. It will have the summer weekdays that did not have to offset it maybe not to the 205 DOM and 425WW  but still pretty good all things considered.

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8 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Which is why even if does not blowup opening weekend if the WOM is good it will be fine. It will have the summer weekdays that did not have to offset it maybe not to the 205 DOM and 425WW  but still pretty good all things considered.

Yeah, even if it doesn't open as high as the predecessor, summer weekdays should help offset that

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5 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Yeah, even if it doesn't open as high as the predecessor, summer weekdays should help offset that

Fingers crossed the reviews are good and fairly close to For Life's reviews if not that would not be any help to it.

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Umm tracking update later but Bad Boys is looking to overperform in SE Wisconsin if my four theaters are anything to go by, so far BBRoD is about 57% ahead of Furiosa and 170% ahead of Furiosa when Early Access. Definitely showing strongest signs in the Hispanic and Black heavy areas of SE Wisconsin.

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29 minutes ago, Menor the Destroyer said:

I think 5m+ previews is pretty doable for BB4. At MTC1 it seems like it'll be well ahead of Equalizer 3 when it gets to T-3 where we got the first data for that. It also has an Atom deal to boost the pace.

Creed 3 did about 4M pure Thursday and BBRoD T-6 is about 98% of MTC1’s T-3 for Creed 3.

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When it comes to Bad Boys, we have to wait until early next week to tell the tale. These movies finish very strong. That said at this point I dont see a path for it to hit last movies OW. That is going to be a stretch plus the internal multi will be weaker relative to MLK weekend release of last movie. So I hope it goes for at least 6m previews to keep 50m OW in play. 

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25 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

When it comes to Bad Boys, we have to wait until early next week to tell the tale. These movies finish very strong. That said at this point I dont see a path for it to hit last movies OW. That is going to be a stretch plus the internal multi will be weaker relative to MLK weekend release of last movie. So I hope it goes for at least 6m previews to keep 50m OW in play. 

The problem is if it only does 50-55 OW too many around here are going to doom post and say how bad that is ignoring that it will have summer weekdays to make some of that back. 

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On 5/31/2024 at 6:45 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 


Bad Boys

 

Thursday 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

559

2845

109309

2.6%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

222

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-6

(0.669x) of Godzilla x Kong $6.35M

(1.063x) of Apes $5.32M 

(1.882x) of Fall Guy $4.33M 
Comps AVG: $5.33M 

 

Actually slowed down a bit. Let's see if this trend continues. 

FLORIDA 


Bad Boys

 

Thursday 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

559

3047

109309

2.8%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

202

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-5

(0.692x) of Godzilla x Kong $6.57M

(1.104x) of Apes $5.52M 

(1.985x) of Fall Guy $4.57M 
Comps AVG: $5.55M 

 

Pace staying steady, but it increased against all comps which is a good sign. 39% of total sales is coming from the greater Miami region, which is a really strong split. The demo for this film is perhaps coming out.  

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