The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

On 7/20/2024 at 3:44 AM, vafrow said:

 

Deadpool and Wolverine, T-6, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 3202

New Sales since T-13: 652

Growth: 26%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 66

Tickets per Showtime: 48.5

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 503/21

Early Evening: 1547/23

Late Evening: 1152/22

 

Sales by Format

Non 3D (2511/45)

Regular: 156/17

Dolby: 635/7

IMAX: 1023/4

VIP: 603/14

4DX: 94/3

 

3D (691/21)

Regular: 95/8

Dolby: 313/5

IMAX: 73/2

VIP: 210/6

 

Comps 

4.889x Dune 2 (no EA) for $48.9M

6.575x The Marvels for $43.4M 

 

Average: $46.1M

 

Sales pace increased as we head to the final stretch as expected. Screen count increased as well, going from 41 shows to 66. 

 

Lacking good comps, it's not telling me much. It'll be helpful for a baseline for future tracks.

 

Dune probably is the closest though, given the overperformance in Canada. Which is why it's continued outpacing there is significant.

 

Dune roughly doubled from its T-6 to T-1 though. If I do one moee pull on this, it'll be T-1, and interesting to see if it can match that pace 

 

 

Deadpool and Wolverine, T-4, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 3566

New Sales since T-6: 364

Growth: 11%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 66

Tickets per Showtime: 54.0

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 563/21

Early Evening: 1680/23

Late Evening: 1323/22

 

Sales by Format

Non 3D (2802/45)

Regular: 308/17

Dolby: 686/7

IMAX: 1057/4

VIP: 652/14

4DX: 99/3

 

3D (764/21)

Regular: 108/8

Dolby: 353/5

IMAX: 86/2

VIP: 217/6

 

Comps 

4.402x Dune 2 (no EA) for $44.0M

6.245x The Marvels for $41.2M 

 

Average: $42.6M

 

I did the pull last night, but only had a chance to post this morning. I guess I did have time for another update. 

 

Comps are dropping, which speaks to them not being the greatest. It's probably putting it on track for mid 30s, which is where the consensus is.

 

Interestingly, regular showings are now the biggest category of sales. Casual viewers not interested in the premium formats, plus the regular are the most recently added and have the best capacity available.

[Menor the Destroyer]

On 7/21/2024 at 1:54 AM, Menor the Destroyer said:

Deadpool and Wolverine MTC1 Previews (T-5) 

296429/1387644 5304135.51 8779 shows +13375

 

Excellent day considering Sat typically drops and yesterday was inflated by the trailer. 

T-4

313493/1392027 5584599.45 (+17064)

 

Not a huge Sunday jump, but taken slightly earlier. Tonight I will also start posting Friday.

[Cooper Legion]

15 minutes ago, Menor the Destroyer said:

T-4

313493/1392027 5584599.45 (+17064)

 

Not a huge Sunday jump, but taken slightly earlier. Tonight I will also start posting Friday.

People couldn't afford to buy tickets after bankrupting themselves on actblue, SAD

[AniNate]

I don't know if this counts as "spillover" but 32 Twisters tickets sold for the 6:55pm friday showing against the capacity DP&W 7pm screening. Now 99 total for the weekend.

 

 

[Flip]

On 7/20/2024 at 12:17 AM, Flip said:

Deadpool 3 (T-6) 2 days of sales

 

42 showtimes/1928 tix sold (+165) 

 

14.17x Bad Boys 4 (T-6) [81.9m]

18.9x Twisters (T-6) [151.2m]

Missed Quiet Place Day One (T-6) 

Missed Longlegs (T-6) 
41.91x Watchers (T-6) [41.91m]

 

 

Twisters won’t be a good comp, but I’m mainly keeping it for growth comparisons 

Deadpool 3 (T-4) 2 days of sales

 

42 showtimes/2241 tix sold (+313) 

 

 

 

10.77x Longlegs (T-4) [32.31m]
44.82x Watchers (T-4) [44.82m]

[Flip]

On 7/17/2024 at 10:20 PM, Flip said:

Trap D2 (T-15)

 

8 showtimes/57 tix sold (+6)

 

.86x Twisters (T-15) [???]

.38x AQP Day One (T-15) [2.58m]

Trap (T-11) 4 days of sales

 

8 showtimes/89 tix sold (+32)

 

.51x AQP Day One (T-15) [3.46m]

[Flip]

Alien: Romulus (T-25)

 

6 showtimes/ 28 tix sold

 

.27x AQP D1 (T-25) [1.84m]

[elinio]

https://deadline.com/2024/07/blake-lively-movie-it-ends-with-us-box-office-1236017671/

 

very promising start for  It Ends With Us

Quote

 

EXCLUSIVE: Tickets for Wayfarer Studios and Columbia Pictures’ It Ends With Us went on sale last Wednesday with presales outstripping that of Sony’s summer 2022 sleeper romance title Where the Crawdads Sing by nearly 4x in its first day. It Ends With Us opens on Aug. 9.

The news follows in the wake of the movie’s first trailer dropping earlier this year to a massive 128.1M views in its first 24-hours, the biggest female event trailer launch post Covid.

Part of the drive here is the fact that It Ends With Us is the highest-selling novel of author Colleen Hoover.

 

Back in the summer of 2022, Sony worked wonders in turning Where the Crawdads Sing into a destination for female moviegoers. The pic opened to $17.2M and did a great 5.2 multiple for a final domestic gross of $90.2M. The 3000 Pictures production cleared a net profit of $74M-plus.

 

The Blake Lively starring and produced, Justin Baldoni directed and starring It Ends With Us, follows Lily, who is overcoming a traumatic childhood to embark on a new life. She has a chance meeting with a neurosurgeon which sparks a connection, but Lily begins to see sides of him that remind her of her parents’ relationship.

It Ends With Us became a “BookTok” cultural phenomenon with over 2 billion views on Hoover’s TikTok hashtag. Hooever is currently the best-selling novelist in the US with over 25 million books sold (at end of 2023). She wrote five of the top ten bestselling print books of any genre in 2022. It Ends With Us was published in 43 foreign languages and was the top selling print book of 2022. It was also on the New York Times Best Sellers List for over 135 weeks by the end of 2023. It’s also the first feature take of a Hoover novel. The author is an EP on the pic.

 

 

Edited July 22 by elinio

[AniNate]

4 hours ago, AniNate said:

I don't know if this counts as "spillover" but 32 Twisters tickets sold for the 6:55pm friday showing against the capacity DP&W 7pm screening. Now 99 total for the weekend.

 

 

 

114 weekend

[filmlover]

I think It Ends with Us is opening similar to the mid-$20M debuts that Eat Pray Love, The Help, and Crazy Rich Asians (though the latter two were midweek openers) posted in the same timeframe. 

[grey ghost]

So is this looking at Dr Strange 2 numbers for OW? Or much better?

[Bob Train]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

So is this looking at Dr Strange 2 numbers for OW? Or much better?

Seems to be headed to a similar previews and OW as DS2 but it's summer so some demand will be shifted to the weekdays.

[blazera]

3 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

So is this looking at Dr Strange 2 numbers for OW? Or much better?

My guess it will get over the 200 million. Once the word is out this will go through the roof.

[abracadabra1998]

Trying to finish filling out my sheets, did we ever find out how much Fly Me to the Moon and/or Maxxxine and/or The Garfield Movie gross in EA? Maybe @Shawn Robbins heard something (sorry I feel like I'm always bugging you about this!)

 

Just hurts when I track something and then never actually find out how much it made  

[Eric Deetz]

Quorum Updates

Alien: Romulus T-25: 34.26% Awareness, 44.64% Interest

Mufasa: The Lion King T-151: 46.27% Awareness, 57.06% Interest

The Fire Inside T-156: 10.4% Awareness, 33.98% Interest

In the Grey T-179: 14.76% Awareness, 35.47% Interest

F1 T-340: 21.24% Awareness, 37.12% Interest

 

Deadpool & Wolverine T-4: 70.3% Awareness, 69.12% Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 90M, 80% chance of 100M, 20% chance of 200M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 100M, 50% chance of 200M

Final Interest: 78% chance of 100M, 11% chance of 200M

DC/MCU Interest: 83% chance of 100M, 17% chance of 200M

 

Harold and the Purple Crayon T-11: 26.48% Awareness, 33.45% Interest

Final Awareness: 19% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 22% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Interest: 50% chance of 20M

 

Trap T-11: 29.63% Awareness, 50.05% Interest

Final Awareness: 19% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 37% chance of 10M, 12% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 94% chance of 10M, 81% chance of 20M

Horror Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 71% chance of 20M

 

Blink Twice T-32: 20.15% Awareness, 41.64% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 54% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 38% chance of 10M, 12% chance of 20M

T-30 Interest: 60% chance of 10M, 35% chance of 20M

Low Interest: 29% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

 

Transformers One T-60: 38.72% Awareness, 46.63% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 93% chance of 10M, 74% chance of 20M, 48% chance of 30M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 20M

T-60 Interest: 61% chance of 10M, 35% chance of 20M, 19% chance of 30M

Animation/Family Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 71% chance of 20M

[misterpepp]

The Last Front on sale tomorrow.

 

Slow times indeed for sale dates.

[AnthonyJPHer]

1 hour ago, Eric Twister said:

Quorum Updates

Alien: Romulus T-25: 34.26% Awareness, 44.64% Interest

Mufasa: The Lion King T-151: 46.27% Awareness, 57.06% Interest

The Fire Inside T-156: 10.4% Awareness, 33.98% Interest

In the Grey T-179: 14.76% Awareness, 35.47% Interest

F1 T-340: 21.24% Awareness, 37.12% Interest

 

Deadpool & Wolverine T-4: 70.3% Awareness, 69.12% Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 90M, 80% chance of 100M, 20% chance of 200M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 100M, 50% chance of 200M

Final Interest: 78% chance of 100M, 11% chance of 200M

DC/MCU Interest: 83% chance of 100M, 17% chance of 200M

 

Harold and the Purple Crayon T-11: 26.48% Awareness, 33.45% Interest

Final Awareness: 19% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 22% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Interest: 50% chance of 20M

 

Trap T-11: 29.63% Awareness, 50.05% Interest

Final Awareness: 19% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 37% chance of 10M, 12% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 94% chance of 10M, 81% chance of 20M

Horror Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 71% chance of 20M

 

Blink Twice T-32: 20.15% Awareness, 41.64% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 54% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 38% chance of 10M, 12% chance of 20M

T-30 Interest: 60% chance of 10M, 35% chance of 20M

Low Interest: 29% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

 

Transformers One T-60: 38.72% Awareness, 46.63% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 93% chance of 10M, 74% chance of 20M, 48% chance of 30M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 20M

T-60 Interest: 61% chance of 10M, 35% chance of 20M, 19% chance of 30M

Animation/Family Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 71% chance of 20M

that Mufasa number is very encouraging this far out. 

[AniNate]

I wouldn't say it's that surprising. Lion King is huge, Disney has just been giving it a lot more exposure socially while promoting the rerelease. Only reason anyone expects it to tank is an assumption (hope) that the family audience hated the Favreau movie as much as the Internet did.

[AnthonyJPHer]

48 minutes ago, AniNate said:

I wouldn't say it's that surprising. Lion King is huge, Disney has just been giving it a lot more exposure socially while promoting the rerelease. Only reason anyone expects it to tank is an assumption (hope) that the family audience hated the Favreau movie as much as the Internet did.

That’s a very odd assumption tbh. The Lion King remake, for all accounts and purposes, was well loved by most audiences. Sure, nostalgia had a part but nostalgia alone can’t guarantee 1.66B. As long as Mufasa is well received I don’t see why it can’t beat expectations. Even if it’s bad it’ll make money. It’s the Lion King 

Edited July 22 by AnthonyJPHer

[AniNate]

4 hours ago, AniNate said:

 

114 weekend

 

142

 

They've now allocated 15 showtimes/day to Twisters, unfortunately all the PLF and even standard + DBOX is going to Deadpool. So that screen loss does seem like it's gonna hurt the weekend drop. Here's hoping word of mouth + spillover consolation is just that kind of boost to it.