The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[AniNate]

Seems counterintuitive to me that a movie would have less of a walkup proportion due to not being a sequel. The reviews and presumably word-of-mouth look to be much better. 

 

Idk, clearly my standards for this movie are much higher than most of this forum's, but I do feel like if there's any hope for a post-covid animated non-sequel to break out it ought to be this one.

 

 

Edited September 12 by AniNate

[Flip]

23 hours ago, Flip said:

Speak No Evil (T-2)

 

12 showtimes/112 tix sold (+30)

 

1.25x The Watchers (T-2) [1.25m]

 

Strong growth, it was surely boosted by the good reviews

Speak No Evil (T-1)

 

12 showtimes/161 tix sold (+49)

 

1.56x The Watchers (T-1) [1.56m]

 

good, maybe I’ll add other comps at T-0

[AniNate]

Abominable and Smallfoot would give even more favorable comparisons, neither cracked $1 million in Thursday previews but managed $20mil+ weekends. I don't expect Wild Robot will follow those patterns to such an insane degree ofc.

[Speedorito]

1 hour ago, YM! said:

Southeast Wisconsin Tracking Update - 9/10/24 and 9/11/24 - North Shore, Menomonee Falls, Brookfield Square and Majestic Cinema (left to right)

 

Speak No Evil	9/12/24	T-2	7	2D, PLF	7	2	1	6	16
Transformers One: Early Access	9/14/24	T-4	3	2D, 3D	11	15		31	57
Transformers One	9/19/24	T-9	7	2D, 3D, PLF (2D/3D)	12	4	2	4	22
The Wild Robot	9/26/24	T-16	6	2D, 3D, PLF (2D/3D)	1	6	0		7
Joker: Folie a Duex	10/3/24	T-22	8	2D PLF	8	3	0	27	38

 

 

Disclaimer - only Joker has data for today, the rest is data from yesterday.

 

Speak No Evil

• 1.058x of The Watchers ($1.058m previews)
• It's tracking the same as The Watchers here, it's pretty much chopped cheese here. Enough for single digit preview and with luck double digits this weekend

Transformers One (2 screens a theater, so 8 overall)

• 0.386x IO2 ($5.02m)
• Similar thoughts about this as before. Early Access is really driving the ticket sales and should drum up decent business for this and am still thinking around 6m for total previews/40-45m OW. We won't really see momentum until the weekend but am seeing a potential warning sign in North Shore predominantly being the ticket driver, which could mean a weaker diversity skew and walkups.

 

The Wild Robot (2 screens a theater but showtimes missing for Majestic, so 6 screens overall)

• 0.318x IO2's T-18 ($4.14m previews), 0.875x of TFO
• I took note of its T-18 which was also the same tickets sold as it has now. Though again mountains are being made out of molehills, even with less PLF than TFO and one of the biggest theaters stateside missing, the fact that this is doing on par with Transformers: One is impressive. This is very great, parroting the 3-4m previews potential for this. Could be the first post-pandemic original animation breakout.

Joker: Folie a Deux

• 1.727x of Twisters without EA T-23 ($13.8m), 1.52x of AQP:D1's T-24 ($10.3m), 0.622x of BJBJ first day of presales ($6.85m)
• Though the non-CBM comparisons are solid, it does seem to be underperforming for a CBM here pretty badly with the bulk of the sales coming from Majestic. Especially one with a clear fanbase and the first doing very well in presales. The best it can hope is that it perform not like a fan driven franchise and climbs enough for a 65m OW but for now, thinking 7m previews for an OW within the 50m range.

FYI The Wild Robot isn’t original, it’s based off a children’s series.

[HummingLemon496]

Just now, Speedorito said:

FYI The Wild Robot isn’t original, it’s based off a children’s series.

And even if it was, that wouldn't even be the first OG animated breakout post-pandemic (Elemental)

[Flip]

23 hours ago, Flip said:

Joker 2 Previews Day Two (T-23)

20 showtimes/236 tix sold (+32)

 

Missed Deadpool 3 Day Two [???]
2.38x Beetlejuice 2 Day Two [23.32m]
2.19x AQP Day One (T-23) [14.89m]

 

Tomorrow I’ll switch to T-x for Beetlejuice.

 

This was a good jump, maybe helped a bit by the ad that played during the debate (but possibly the effects of that will be felt tomorrow). Show count is still lower than I would’ve liked. It’s interesting the disparity between my numbers and @TheFlatLannister’s. His T-23 Beetlejuice comp is way under 1x, whereas for me Joker 2 is already equal with where Beetlejuice was at T-11.

Joker 2 Previews Day Three (T-22)

20 showtimes/240 tix sold (+4)

 

Missed Deadpool 3 (T-22) [???]
1.68x Beetlejuice 2 (T-22) [16.46m]
2.11x AQP Day One (T-22) [13.72m]

 

Sales starting to slow down, today should’ve been a bit higher though due to the ad that aired late last night during the debate

[AniNate]

4 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

And even if it was, that wouldn't even be the first OG animated breakout post-pandemic (Elemental)

 

Elemental was a modest success by post-COVID Pixar morale boosting standards. It had an objectively terrible opening but managed to leg out to a respectable total through the sheer will of word-of-mouth. What I want and for those movies to actually be sustainable long-term is for them to get back to the $200mil+ kind of takes they were able to do before. I also don't anticipate Wild Robot is gonna attract the same kind of international audience Elemental did, so I'd like a better domestic performance.

 

 

Edited September 12 by AniNate

[HummingLemon496]

1 minute ago, AniNate said:

Elemental was a modest success by post-COVID Pixar morale boosting standards. It had an objectively terrible opening but managed to leg out to a respectable total through the sheer will of word-of-mouth. What I want and for those movies to actually be sustainable long-term is for them to get back to the $200mil+ kind of takes they were able to do before.

Well true, but going from potentially one of the biggest bombs ever to making a small profit, purely through word of mouth, is an absolutely insane run. When the Rotten reviews came out, Reddit was preaching that it was going to bomb. 

Edited September 12 by HummingLemon496

[Flip]

23 hours ago, Flip said:

Transformers One (T-10) 

 

11 showtimes/59 tix sold (+4)

 

.30x Inside Out 2  (T-10) [3.90m]

 

IO2 really started to ramp up starting tomorrow, hopefully the Transformers ramp up starts after the weekend EA

Transformers One (T-9) 

 

11 showtimes/60 tix sold (+1)

 

.27x Inside Out 2 (T-9) [3.51m]

 

I don’t think there will be any significant growth for the next 3-4 days

[Flip]

23 hours ago, Flip said:

The Wild Robot (T-16)

 

16 showtimes/50 tix sold (+16)

 

.41x Inside Out 2 (T-16) [5.33m]

1.14x Transformers One (T-16) [???]

 

 

That final trailer must’ve really helped it, I still think it will cool down but this was really strong 

The Wild Robot (T-15)

 

16 showtimes/55 tix sold (+5)

 

.43x Inside Out 2 (T-15) [5.59m]

1.20x Transformers One (T-15) [???]

[AnthonyJPHer]

25 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Seems counterintuitive to me that a movie would have less of a walkup proportion due to not being a sequel. The reviews and presumably word-of-mouth look to be much better. 

 

Idk, clearly my standards for this movie are much higher than most of this forum's, but I do feel like if there's any hope for a post-covid animated non-sequel to break out it ought to be this one.

 

 

It’s a bit strange that it was a sequel and yet has massive walkups but clearly that’s not rare, Inside Out 2 was a sequel and had absolutely insane walkups. I didn’t think being a sequel matters. 
 

I’m just think it’s going to preform extremely similar to Elemental, bad opening weekend (although for the Wild Robot the budget should be way lower, so the weekend wouldn’t even be that bad) then leg out insanely well after. But 200m DOM for this movie seems out of reach even with good word of mouth. 155-175m is best case

[AniNate]

2 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

It’s a bit strange that it was a sequel and yet has massive walkups but clearly that’s not rare, Inside Out 2 was a sequel and had absolutely insane walkups. I didn’t think being a sequel matters. 
 

I’m just think it’s going to preform extremely similar to Elemental, bad opening weekend (although for the Wild Robot the budget should be way lower, so the weekend wouldn’t even be that bad) then leg out insanely well after. But 200m DOM for this movie seems out of reach even with good word of mouth. 155-175m is best case

 

Well, like I said, Panda's weekend proportion was still relatively modest compared to the animated September originals in 2018/2019. You could reasonably argue that Wild Robot likely does have more adult interest than those movies and won't have such a low Thursday:Weekend ratio, but still I don't think it's farfetched to say the Thursday would be similarly deflated as KFP4's was due to being a school night.

 

This mainly comes down to people just being hesitant to consider the possibility this is a big hit I feel. It really does seem to have everything going for it imo.

[Ryan C]

36 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Seems counterintuitive to me that a movie would have less of a walkup proportion due to not being a sequel. The reviews and presumably word-of-mouth look to be much better. 

 

Idk, clearly my standards for this movie are much higher than most of this forum's, but I do feel like if there's any hope for a post-covid animated non-sequel to break out it ought to be this one.

 

 

 

I think it's pretty clear that if you want your original (or not based on a huge IP) animated film to break out today, the reviews have to be genuinely great. If only Disney's Wish had that last November.

 

I'm still not going incredibly high on this movie, but if DreamWorks' The Bad Guys can make almost $24M in its opening in 2022 (though I know that was the first animated film since Sing 2) I think The Wild Robot can do slightly more and maybe even $30M in its opening. 

 

Unlike Abominable or Smallfoot, the stellar reviews/word-of-mouth should absolutely boost this one's prospects and it's got no animated competition until Moana 2. I'd give it about a 75% chance of hitting the century mark. 

[AniNate]

For the record, Bad Guys was another kidlit adaptation that opened on a school night. $1.1mil previews before the $24mil weekend

 

 

Edited September 12 by AniNate

[Rorschach]

23 hours ago, Rorschach said:

Speak No Evil (Tuesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

 

6 Thursday showings: 14/510 (2.7% sold)

 

Comps:

Strangers: $622k

Watchers: $824k

Trap: $994k

Avg: $813k

 

10 Friday showings: 19/1,040 (1.8% sold)

 

Comps:

Strangers: $2M

Watchers: $2.26M

Trap: $2.4M

Avg: $2.22M

 

Thurs + Fri: 33/1,550 (2.1% sold)

 

Comps:

Strangers: $2.63M

Watchers: $2.9M

Trap: $3.31M

Avg: $2.95M

Speak No Evil (Wednesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

 

6 Thursday showings: 16/510 (3.1% sold) [+2]

 

Comps:

Strangers: $662k

Watchers: $762k

Trap: $765k

Avg: $730k

 

10 Friday showings: 34/1,040 (3.3% sold) [+15]

 

Comps:

Strangers: $2.6M

Watchers: $4.04M

Trap: $1.92M

Avg: $2.85M

 

Thurs + Fri: 50/1,550 (3.2% sold) [+17]

 

Comps:

Strangers: $3.19M

Watchers: $3.92M

Trap: $2.67M

Avg: $3.26M

[AnthonyJPHer]

37 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

I think it's pretty clear that if you want your original (or not based on a huge IP) animated film to break out today, the reviews have to be genuinely great. If only Disney's Wish had that last November.

 

I'm still not going incredibly high on this movie, but if DreamWorks' The Bad Guys can make almost $24M in its opening in 2022 (though I know that was the first animated film since Sing 2) I think The Wild Robot can do slightly more and maybe even $30M in its opening. 

 

Unlike Abominable or Smallfoot, the stellar reviews/word-of-mouth should absolutely boost this one's prospects and it's got no animated competition until Moana 2. I'd give it about a 75% chance of hitting the century mark. 

Ah, Disney’s Wish. That movie was so mid. Anyway, yeah I think it has a good chance to leg out for the rest of the fall until Moana but unfortunately it’s not the only animated film available. Transformers One releases two weeks before and could take audiences away from the Wild Robot. 
 

Unlike KFP4, The Wild Robot has tough competition. And I’m not entirely sure they can coexist either. But if they do, it’ll be a good time for animation 

[AniNate]

I think transformers will get the raw end of the deal if anyone does. It's already a fanboy driven IP and probably wasn't gonna be super leggy, but if there's a buzzy, critically acclaimed feelsy drama in the Pixar mold coming the week after it that's gonna take much of the hype away. Buzz for TFOne is pretty good too but mutant mayhem dropped 45% its second weekend even with no new kids competition, so I'm not really banking on TFOne managing any better.

 

 

Edited September 12 by AniNate

[CheeseWizard]

53 minutes ago, AniNate said:

I think transformers will get the raw end of the deal if anyone does. It's already a fanboy driven IP and probably wasn't gonna be super leggy, but if there's a buzzy, critically acclaimed feelsy drama in the Pixar mold coming the week after it that's gonna take much of the hype away. Buzz for TFOne is pretty good too but mutant mayhem dropped 45% its second weekend even with no new kids competition, so I'm not really banking on TFOne managing any better.

 

 

Honestly I’m finding it kinda interesting rn. TFOne’s had far more prevalent marketing, with more viewed and liked trailers, been talked about much more and gauged far more interest according to places like Quorum and yet it’s pronably gonna end up doing the worst out of the two. 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

1 hour ago, CheeseWizard said:

Honestly I’m finding it kinda interesting rn. TFOne’s had far more prevalent marketing, with more viewed and liked trailers, been talked about much more and gauged far more interest according to places like Quorum and yet it’s pronably gonna end up doing the worst out of the two. 

Transformers has the disadvantage of being part of an old, washed-up property that already failed to leave people wanting more last summer. Wild Robot being essentially a brand new property to most people could actually be to its advantage, which is something a lot of other original movies in recent years would kill for. Hopefully Paramount managed to keep the budget in check, as that's what allowed merchandise sales to save Mutant Mayhem from being a failed Detective Pikachu-like one-off.

[charlie Jatinder]

My Wild Robot sales are weak for THU unlike most here other. FRI is very good but sales are unusual with one odd show getting most of sale in some of the locs while rest are empty.